Time to revisit Brandon Phillips?
by 3Com Park on Apr 21, 2006 6:37 PM EDT
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Brandon Phillips has debuted in Cincinnati with a huge splash -- 13 RBI in his last four starts.
As a result Tony Womack has become exendable, and one can imagine the Reds dealing Austin Kearns to open up an outfield spot for Ryan Freel if Phillips plays well.
At one time Phillips was a prospect rated at the top of the lists by John, BA and others. When he was in the Montreal organization he was rated their top prospect in 2002 over the likes of Brad Wilkerson and Grady Sizemore. He was traded to Cleveland along with Sizemore and Cliff Lee for Bartolo Colon and was finally given a chance to play in 2003.
He has regressed steadily since then, largely because of declining plate discipline. But he's still only 24, and he still has all the talent that led him to be considered a Top 10 prospect.
Anybody think we could be witnessing important development, or is it too late for Phillips to be anything more than a journeyman?
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Hmm, maybe
On the other hand, he's hitting .367 through those 30 ABs. What happens if he hits .125 through his next 30? This has always been the biggest problem with Philips, as he's talented enough to make it in the majors off of talent alone without good plate discipline.
I do believe the change of organization has done nothing but good for him. I think the Reds might as well let him stick in the lineup for the year and express confidence in him that regardless of what he did the day or even the week before, he's still got a job. If they can get Philips into a comfort zone and get him to stop pushing all the time, the Reds might just end up unlocking his ability.
by mrkupe on Apr 21, 2006 7:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why did Cleveland let him go?
Brandon did see a significant increase in his isolated power last year in the minors, so perhaps Cincy is the right place for him to breakout. I agree with mrkupe that he'll have to improve his plate discipline before he sheds his prospect bust status, though.
by Ian Miller on Apr 21, 2006 7:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why Cleveland let him go
by Fundamentals on Apr 21, 2006 7:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why he was traded - out of options!
IanCobb - Indians GM Mark Shapiro stated that Phillips' swing is really no different than it was a few years ago; in other words, he was still swinging for the fences and not focusing enough on making contact.
My personal opinion is that Phillips will not likely thrive in the utility role (current success notwithstanding) because the more he hits, it's likely the more he will want to be inserted into the lineup - i.e., become a starter. At this point, Cincinnati is not in that position (though they could be if they let go of Womack, trade Kearns, etc.)
As long as Phillips remains out of the starting lineup, he will likely do one of two things: 1. He'll try too hard to come up with big hits (i.e. HRs) to force himself into a starter's role and get himself back into his old habits; 2. He will sulk a bit because he is not playing everyday as a starter because he feels he should be playing everyday and it will affect his hitting.
While his performance right now is nice, don't forget, the NL has never seen Phillips before and doesn't know his tendencies so they don't know how to attack him yet.
Plus, while the NL may not be quite as fastball-oriented as it used to be, in my opinion, it's still more fastball-oriented than the AL is (i.e. more fastballs in the NL than in the AL.) Phillips can best handle the fastball and pull it for power; that plays to his strength.
So, it doesn't totally shock me he is doing well at this point for Cincinnati. Plus, he's really trying to make a good impression with his new team.
The Indians repeatedly tried to get him to make contact, but he refused, or was unable to make the adjustment. Even Phillips admitted that his emotions cost him in Cleveland - he hit the 3-run HR to win a ballgame for the Indians in 2003 and then it went to his head that he should be trying to hit HRs because it felt good and he loved the "attention" that he was receiving and hearing from the fans and the media.
Personally, I think old habits die hard, so I doubt Phillips will ever be a consistent contact hitter. He will likely still be prone to the strikeout and slumps, which will likely lead to a low BA.
A player who doesn't walk much, if at all, really needs to hit well in order to be valuable to their team. Former Indians 2B Carlos Baerga comes to mind (had over 200 hits a few times in his career, but walked very little.) I doubt Phillips will be that effective.
He could be, but it would be a shock to me. Personally, I think he may be better in Cincinnati due to more fastballs thrown in the NL and being able to pull many more pitches for HRs and hard-hit balls. That's why I think Aaron Boone did so well in the NL; he hasn't had nearly that much success in the AL (with the Yankees or the Indians.)
But, for Phillips to totally live up to the potential that he had a few years ago seems doubtful in my opinion. A useful player - I think that's reasonable. A great star - I doubt it.
Also keep in mind that Trevor Crowe will likely take over 2B in the near future. The only reason he's not playing there now is because the Indians want him to play 2B in the instructional league this fall.
With the OF depth the Indians have, they figured that Crowe could fill a hole at 2B, and he did play 2B earlier in his career (his early college years?)
While Crowe may never have Brandon Phillips' raw power, I think his chances of being a more complete, patient hitter are better than Phillips. That is another major reason why Phillips was traded - at least the Indians get something for him rather than nothing, since he didn't make the Indians, was out of options, and likely would have been claimed.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great weekend!
by indiansfan on Apr 21, 2006 7:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Eh
But wouldn't it be a GOOD thing for Cincinnati that he A) wants to hit and B) wants to start? Shouldn't they be happy that he wants to make a good impression? IMO, getting Philips motivated and his focus on improving his game is about 75 percent of his battle. A change of organization is pretty much exactly what the guy needed.
Philips was basically a disaster in handling by the Indians, it's okay to admit this. They pushed him before he was ready and then they didn't do a very good job at all of supporting him when he struggled. It's hard to believe that he's only 24, because the Indians treated him for the past 2 years like he was a washed up 35 year old.
I'm not sure what Crowe has to do with this discussion other than that you apparently wanted to talk about him, but you are correct in that he appears to be just about the opposite of Brandon Philips.
by mrkupe on Apr 21, 2006 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crowe is the likely future option at 2B!
The reason I brought up Crowe is because he will go to instructional league this fall to relearn to play 2B - 2B is likely his future position with the Indians because of all the OF position, plus he has previous experience at the position. That's why I mentioned Crowe - because someone (sorry, don't remember who) mentioned that the Indians have no prospects at the middle infield positions.
Admittedly, the Indians don't have much depth there, but Crowe is likely the future 2B. Plus, hopefully, Peralta will anchor at SS for the next several years, so their lack of middle infield depth shouldn't be a major concern at the moment.
Regarding Phillips - yes, it's a good thing he wants to make a good impression, but that was what partly got him into trouble in Cleveland - he hits the HR, then he's so eager to do it again that he gets into some bad habits. I'm saying that the Reds have to be careful and control his enthusiasm a bit so that he doesn't get into bad habits again like swinging for the fences.
If Phillips has matured and learned the error of his ways, then yes, his enthusiasm will be a positive. But, that's partly what got him into trouble in Cleveland so the Reds need to be careful with Phillips' enthusiasm and make sure he channels it in the right way or he could struggle again in an attempt to continue his success by trying to hit more HRs.
Also, admittedly the Indians rushed him, and that was a mistake. However, keep in mind that it was not just the Indians' fault - Phillips himself admitted his emotions led to his downfall in Cleveland because he got caught up in hitting HRs and either wasn't willing or wasn't able to make the adjustments to focusing on making consistent contact.
So, Phillips is equally as responsible for not making it in Cleveland because the Indians stuck with him for the whole first half of 2003 - they only sent him down after the All-Star Break when he barely hit .200. Obviously, they couldn't keep him up in the MLs; his confidence had already taken a hit. They sent him back to Buffalo and tried to work with him.
What happened, though? He sulked and pouted over being sent down and did not get on track the rest of the year. The Indians convinced him that he needed another year of development in 2004, so he stayed down there, and by several accounts, had a pretty good year, though according to many reports, his approach didn't change much.
In 2005, again at AAA, he did not have a good year. Whether he was frustrated at not being in the MLs or what, he didn't respond well, which has been a continuing, disturbing trend for Phillips, one he must overcome to be consistently successful in the Majors in my opinion. That's probably why the Indians didn't feel confident in allowing him to compete for the 2B job. By that time, Belliard had already entrenched himself as the starting 2B.
Plus, the Indians weren't going to give Phillips the 2B job after he couldn't handle that scenario in 2003.
They even were willing to try him in the utility role, but essentially with the Indians, he never had consistent at-bats. I remember Phillips was even brought up for a period of time last year to work directly with current Indians hitting instructor, Derek Shelton, who has gotten many of the Indians to use the whole field and has worked out a specific plan for each of them. Unfortunately, Phillips never turned into a consistent threat under his tutelage either.
So, the Indians were half-responsible for Phillips' failure, but Phillips himself is also half-responsible for his failure. His attitude wasn't the best for developing his raw talent into production.
Therefore, perhaps you didn't mean to make it sound like this, but it wasn't entirely the Indians' fault that Phillips failed with the Indians. Plus, the Indians supported him numerous times throughout the last 3+ years - he just never responded to their tutelage of making consistent hard contact and not swinging for the fences. They can't help that he wouldn't or couldn't change his approach. They tried everything they could.
Remember, this organization was the first that got Milton Bradley to be productive, despite his temperament, which I think most would agree, is worse than Phillips'. So, I believe the Indians did everything they could, and then some, to get Phillips to be productive - it just didn't work, which happens to all organizations, not just the Indians.
Personally, I think Phillips' recent success is due to 2 main factors:
1. It's the National League's style of pitching - more fastballs in fastball counts, and fastballs are usually the easiest pitches to pull and hit well. That's why Boone enjoyed very good success in Cincinnati, but has not enjoyed the same level of success with the Yankees or the Indians - he has major trouble with breaking stuff over the outside corner because he has a tendency to pull it.
I believe the NL plays more to Phillips' strengths of pulling the ball, especially the fastball. Plus, like I said before, they don't have a detailed scouting report on him yet. Let's wait a few months and a few turns around the league before we say Phillips has finally arrived.
2. Perhaps Phillips has finally woke up to what the Indians were trying to tell him all along - forget the HR power and hit the ball where it's pitched, making solid contact (which he worked on in Indians' Spring Training Camp.) He may finally realize that his career may be over before it starts if he doesn't start making adjustments at the plate and focus on making consistent contact, instead of trying to pull everything and hit HRs.
Therefore, while it's nice to see Phillips' early success, I want to wait a bit and see if he can maintain this level of success or if he will start to struggle again like he did with the Indians. He's off to a nice start, but the real challenge will be when the pitchers come to know him and he's been around for a bit - will he be able to be productive then? Only time will tell.
Just my 5 cents. :-)
Take care and have a good weekend!
by indiansfan on Apr 22, 2006 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, really.
by Azteca on Apr 21, 2006 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When you
by slurve on Apr 22, 2006 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Peralta
by D O on Apr 22, 2006 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Peralta got that much hype!
First, to slurve, good point! :-)
D O - no offense, but I never recalled Peralta getting as much hype as Phillips - in fact, Phillips overshadowed Peralta just a few years ago.
In fact, I remember one national analyst or scout say, "Peralta is a nice player, but he's nowhere near the caliber of Phillips." I wonder where that analyst or scout is now :-) (I don't remember who it was.)
In my opinion, if you were a follower of the Indians' Minor League system, you knew about Peralta, but I got the impression that most outside of the Indians' organization didn't know who Peralta was until 2004, with his great AAA season, or at the very earliest, 2003, with his above-average AA season. Phillips received most of the press and hype; Peralta received very little.
Plus, Peralta was injured for a period of time, which held him back and dropped him out of the little spotlight he did receive (which was mostly from the Indians' farm director, John Farrell, and Indians' GM, Mark Shapiro and the devoted Indians' fans and Minor League fans who listened to radio interviews about prospects who were not well-known at the time. :-)
Therefore, I don't think Peralta and Phillips' career paths have been that similar. Peralta, getting little hype, has blossomed into an above-average to excellent shortstop, while Phillips, hyped excessively by many, faltered in Cleveland and now is trying to make a ML career in Cincinnati, playing mostly in a utility role to this point.
Therefore, I don't think they're that similar. The 2003 debut of Peralta, everyone knew he wasn't ready - the only reason he was up was because Omar Vizquel was out for the year, sliding in the dirt in Arizona. Otherwise, Peralta wouldn't have been called up until September callups at the earliest. Peralta had just reached AAA that season and was still getting acclimated to AAA pitching when he was called up. Phillips, on the other hand, had done better at AAA and was up the year before, so, arguably, he should have been ready for the MLs, moreso than Peralta.
Neither did well, but with Peralta, that was to be expected since he had not done well at AAA before he was called up, unlike Phillips, who had better numbers at AAA and was there the season before he was called up the MLs to compete for the starting job at 2B.
Plus, Peralta did show signs of improvement, even at the young age of 21, at the ML level before the season ended, even though he had limited AAA experience. Phillips got worse as the season went on and was sent back to AAA after the All-Star Break, where he did even worse than he did in the Majors (.175 at AAA to .258, and that was after he returned to the Majors late in the year and hit a bit better - I believe it was closer to .200, say .205-.208, when he was sent out to AAA after the All-Star Break.)
So, overall, I don't think the two are that similar; I can see what you mean by Phillips and Peralta being approximately the same age when they were called up and both having limited AAA experience, but Phillips had AAA experience the year previously, plus had done better at AAA than Peralta did. Plus, Phillips got much more hype than Peralta ever did. Peralta really only came onto some people's prospect maps after his above-average season at AA in 2003, and especially after his AAA MVP season in 2004.
Phillips was hyped as far back as when he was traded to the Indians for Colon, being called the "main prospect," with Lee being the "middle prospect," and Sizemore being considered the "throw-in." In my opinion, Peralta and Phillips' career paths have not been that similar.
Just my 5 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Apr 23, 2006 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cleveland
There are players that have an attitude. This is ok. But when it makes them un-coachable this is not. Brandon swings for the fences and is not patient. He is in the NL and pitchers don't know him. He does have a lot of talent. That is why he did so well at first. But they are adjusting. Brandon has show one amazing talent in the last few years - the inability to adjust.
It is not that IndiansFan is bitter.
I have a question for you guys? Have you ever seen him bitter or talk down ex-indians? This is a cheap shot to the nicest guy on here. No - I did not co-star with him in Brokeback Mtn. But these comments are stupid.
I do hope Brandon figures things out. But I think he has to realize that he is not smarter than everyone. That baseball is a privilege.
by pedrophile on Apr 21, 2006 11:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hey
That whole "NL pitchers haven't adjusted to him yet" thing is worn. How many AL pitchers remember Phillips ugly MLB-stretch in 2003? How many of those extant scout's notes would actually be useful? Very few major leaguers spend time in the minors together; and anyway, the IL has a healthy mixture of AL & NL farm squads.
I'm not saying Phillips is a star, but Cincy's park seems to boost power numbers (even if run-scoring remains fairly neutral there), and Brandon's on a power binge.
Another thing, as I already mentioned: Phillips was very good in the IL in 2004, putting up this line as a 22 year-old: .303/.363/.430. He walked 44 times, and k'd merely 56. Last year's numbers, after seeing 30+ big-league at bats this season, could have been a result of his sulking. But at this point, who cares? Just didn't understand the 'sour grapes'. The Indians never expected Peralta to become a middle-of-the-lineup force. If they lose one 'gem' from the Great Montreal Heist of 2002 to the southern half of the state, so be it.
by Azteca on Apr 22, 2006 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Phillips hasn't made many adjustments!
"In the end, though, he seemed to take the company-line, something akin to what Wedge wouldv'e said to Milton Bradley a couple of years ago: goodbye, good luck...& good riddance."
Sorry if my post wasn't unique, LOL! :-) I don't think Bradley and Phillips are quite the same personality - Bradley is more volatile; Phillips is more cocky. A bit of a difference.
In Bradley's case, it would be "goodbye, good luck...& good riddance" because for his production, his temper tantrums and antics were a distraction to the team. In his case, it was addition by subtraction.
My stance is that the Indians did everything they could with Phillips to unlock his potential; it just didn't work. The Indians probably wished he was here now, performing at his potential, but they couldn't afford to wait any longer. They were going to lose him on waivers anyway - they figured they would get something for him, plus give him a chance to flourish elsewhere.
Regarding this comment:
"That whole 'NL pitchers haven't adjusted to him yet' thing is worn. How many AL pitchers remember Phillips ugly MLB-stretch in 2003? How many of those extant scout's notes would actually be useful? Very few major leaguers spend time in the minors together; and anyway, the IL has a healthy mixture of AL & NL farm squads."
Personally, I don't think that argument is worn:
1. The AL and NL are still different in my opinion in terms of their style of play - the AL offenses have more firepower than the NL offenses as a whole (STL is an exception,) so the AL pitchers have to be more willing to throw breaking stuff in fastball counts or risk getting knocked around on a constant basis.
The NL pitchers don't do this nearly as often as their AL counterparts, partly because you have weak pitchers hitting, along with usually relatively weak #8 hitters. And, if you get a strong #8 hitter, you walk him and face the weak-hitting pitcher, which you'd normally challenge with fastballs, no matter what the count. The NL does this often with many hitters, not just the pitchers since most NL offenses are weaker than AL offenses.
2. Phillips hasn't made many adjustments since 2003 - Indians GM Mark Shapiro even mentioned in an interview that Phillips' swing and approach aren't that different from 2003 - therefore, those scouting reports would likely still be accurate.
Even though you mention that the AL and NL mingle together in the International League, scouting reports will only tell you so much. You still need to see the guy a time or two before you really know what he can handle and how to go after him. Scouting reports can give you an idea, but you still need to see the guy in action first before really knowing how to go about attacking him.
Plus, as I recall, he hit his first HR off Tomo Ohka, a decent pitcher, but not spectacular by any means. The second one was hit off of Mike Adams, another pitcher who is not considered spectacular, so the quality of pitching that Brandon Phillips hit his HRs off of was not exactly stellar. That probably had a part in his hitting the HRs as well. They weren't able to execute the plan of attacking him, based on the scouting reports they had on him. Their control wavered, the balls were right over the plate, and Phillips crushed them.
Again, though, a scouting report can give you an idea, but until you see the hitter live (much like with pitchers,) you don't really know for sure how to attack him.
By "sour grapes," if you're referring to my comments about Phillips, I have nothing against him. I hope he does well. I'm just not convinced that he has suddenly found it. I need to see more and see how he adjusts to the NL adjusting to him and see him still thrive before I'm convinced he has arrived.
Like pedrophile and I both said, I'm not bitter. Many prospects thrive away from their original organizations (or the organizations where they were about to break through in the Majors in Phillips' case, since Montreal is actually his original organization.) I mentioned several in my post to pedrophile:
Jermaine Dye
Paul Konerko
Juan Uribe
Omar Vizquel
Many others!
It happens; it's a part of baseball. :-)
Therefore, I'm not bitter about Phillips possibly developing away from Cleveland; I'm just not convinced he has arrived yet and mentioned the reasons why I believe he may not succeed. With that said, I wish him well and hope he does find it.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great weekend!
by indiansfan on Apr 22, 2006 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
azteca
I like the guys who post 2000 words - when it's informative. I don't always read it all. When it's people complaining or rambling then it bothers me.
Brandon - I think he will be like many other players with talent but are unteachable.
He has the talent to succeed in stretches. And if he continues to play he may be an ok player. But unless he changes his approach at the plate he will never come close to what was his original ceiling.
by pedrophile on Apr 22, 2006 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks again for the support! :-)
I try to make it interesting when I write long posts. Plus, I space it out so that it's easier on the eyes (what internet marketers call "using white space" to make it easier and more interesting to read.) Plus, it helps others to read the sections they want to read - even if you don't want to read the entire post, you hopefully will get something useful and/or beneficial by reading the section you want to read.
Again, thanks for the support! :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Apr 23, 2006 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
np
by pedrophile on Apr 25, 2006 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the support, pedrophile!
My response to mrkupe was pretty much what you stated - Phillips did not make adjustments with the Indians, despite the organization constantly try to get him to go more for contact and less for power, as well as hit the ball where it's pitched and not try to pull everything.
Like you, I hope Brandon figures it out; of course, I will be suspicious of his early success and won't be truly convinced until he does it for a long period of time, and like you mentioned, after NL pitchers get more accustomed to his tendencies and Phillips has been around the league a few times.
Right now, he's off to a good start, but it's way too early to say that Brandon Phillips has arrived.
Again, thanks for the support - I greatly appreciate it. I am not bitter that Phillips may figure it out away from Cleveland. That happens sometimes, and it happens to all organizations, not just the Indians.
I'm not bitter that Ryan Church is doing well for the Nationals, that Billy Traber pitched well recently for the Nationals, or that Maicer Izturis is a solid utility man for the Angels. Trades are a part of baseball and sometimes your former prospects thrive after they are traded away from their original organizations.
Many other examples exist when it comes to other organizations:
Jermaine Dye (KC and Chicago) thrived after being traded away from Atlanta; Paul Konerko (Chicago) thrived after being traded away from Los Angeles and Cincinnati; Juan Uribe (Chicago) thrived after being traded away from Colorado; Omar Vizquel (Cleveland and SF) thrived after being traded away from Seattle. The list goes on and on. It happens often in baseball. :-)
Again, thanks for the support - I greatly appreciate it! :-)
Take care and have a great weekend!
by indiansfan on Apr 22, 2006 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah, brandon
by whichthat on Apr 22, 2006 10:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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