Shadow Drafting For Your Favorite Team
by CanuckDodger on Apr 10, 2006 7:25 AM EDT
15 comments
In his recent post on Brandon Wood, John talks about his past "shadow drafts" for the Twins, in which every year he would follow the draft in real time and choose the players whom HE would choose as the Twins' picks, if he were the Twins' scouting director. I suppose a lot of us hard-core prospect/draft fans do that on draft day for our favorite teams, don't we? For those of you who have been doing this sort of thing in past years, how about sharing with the rest of us your "shadow pick" for your favorite team's FIRST pick in the draft, going back however long you have been following the draft in real time AND have had a "shadow pick" selected (in your mind) before your team made its real selection?
If you want to do this, please mention your favorite team, the draft year, the round PLUS overall number for the pick, the player you WANTED, and the player your team DID take. Also, and this may be the most interesting part, say if, in hindsight, you believe YOU made a better choice, or your favorite team's scouting director made the better choice.
I'll start. Obviously the Dodgers are my favorite team. I have been following the draft live and shadow drafting (for the first two or three rounds) for the Dodgers since 2002, which coincidentally was Logan White's very first draft as the Dodgers' scouting director.
2002:
The Dodgers' first pick was the 19th overall pick in the 1st round.
My shadow pick was Matt Whitney, a Florida high school 3B.
The Dodgers picked James Loney, a Texas high school LHP/1B whom most scouts preferred as a pitcher, but the Dodgers preferred as a 1B.
In hindsight, everybody would agree with me that the Dodgers' real pick was better than my shadow pick. Whitney ended up being drafted by the Indians 31st overall. Perhaps if Whitney had not broken his leg quite badly before starting his first full season he could have turned out better than Loney, but as things stand, Loney now trumps Whitney by quite a bit.
2003:
The Dodgers' first pick was the 24th overall pick in the 1st round.
My shadow pick was Ryan Sweeney, an Iowa high school OF/LHP whom most scouts preferred as an OF, and I wanted the Dodgers to draft Sweeney as an OF.
The Dodgers drafted Chad Billingsley, an Ohio high school RHP.
In hindsight, everyone would agree that the Dodgers' choice was superior to my pick. Sweeney ended up being drafted by the Chicago White Sox in the 2nd round, 52nd overall. While not nearly as well regarded as Billingsley, Sweeney is considered a legitimate prospect, and ironically he somewhat resembles James Loney: he is an ex-lefty pitcher who is now praised for his pure hitting skills as a lefty hitter, but people question whether he has or will ever develop enough power to play in the big leagues at a position where power is usually expected.
2004:
The Dodgers' first pick was the 17th overall pick in the 1st round.
My shadow pick was Scott Elbert, a Missouri high school LHP.
The Dodgers' pick was Scott Elbert.
In hindsight, I am pleased with the Dodgers' and my choice of Elbert, and the only player selected after Elbert with whom I would be EQUALLY pleased is Phil Hughes, selected by the Yankees 23rd overall. I am sure there are many people who would prefer Huston Street, Dustin Pedroia, or Gio Gonzalez over Elbert, but I am not one of them, for various reasons that I won't go into here.
2005:
The Dodgers' first pick was the 40th overall pick in the supplemental 1st round.
My shadow pick was Michael Bowden, an Illinois high school RHP.
The Dodgers' pick was Luke Hochevar, a RHP from the U. of Tennessee who was univerally considered before the draft to be a top 10 talent, but fell to the Dodgers at #40 because of his bonus demands and the fact that Scott Boras was his advisor.
In hindsight, I could KILL Logan White or Paul DePodesta or whoever it was with the Dodgers who wanted Hochevar. This really isn't even strictly about hindsight either. I screamed at my computer the moment the Dodgers picked Hochevar, because I KNEW Hochevar was not going to sign with the Dodgers and the Dodgers would just end up having wasted their first pick in the 2005 draft. Sure, I did not foresee the exact nature of the fiasco the future held in store, but I just knew that Boras was going to hold out for a Jered Weaver-type deal for Hochevar, and I knew that unlike the Angels, the Dodgers were NOT going to knuckle under to Boras. In other words, I foresaw that the Dodgers intended to play a game of "Chicken" with Boras, counting on Boras to lose because they did not think Hochevar would want to go back in the draft in 2006, PLUS I foresaw that Boras would not allow himself to lose a game of Chicken, even if it meant screwing his client, himself and the Dodgers equally. You don't lose a game of Chicken if EVERYBODY dies, right? Michael Bowden ended up being picked by the Red Sox in the first supplemental round, #47 overall, and while he isn't a better talent than Hochevar, the Dodgers would certainly be better off with him right now than with the great big spot of nothingness they have in place of Hochevar.
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Interesting
Care to try to predict this years draft?
The Dodgers have the #7 pick, who do you want them to take?
Some options:
HS position player-Chris Marrero, Cody Johnson, Travis Snider
HS Pitcher- Drabek
College Position Player-Stubbs, Matt LaPorta
College Pitcher- Linecum, Scherzer, Hoechevar again :)
Someone else.
I'd guess that they would go for Stubbs if he falls because of the lack of CF's the Dodgers have (Unless Kemp can handle it).
Otherwise I think they go for a HS Pitcher. The last thing they need is more pitching but they don't have any future position openings in the MLB anytime soon.
by colinadam on Apr 10, 2006 10:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Prep LHP
by mtk52983 on Apr 10, 2006 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dodgers In 2006
Logan White loves high school pitchers with easy, fluid deliveries, a hot fastball, and at least one advanced breaking pitch. There will be a number of HS arms to choose from at #7 who fit those criteria, and though I may change my mind later, if the draft were being held today my "shadow pick" for the Dodgers' first pick would be Florida high school RHP Colton Willems, who is rising up draft boards quickly, I hear. I also would be happy with Kyle Drabek, whose only faults might be a lack of size and a short-arm delivery that may not appeal to White.
by CanuckDodger on Apr 10, 2006 11:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
matt laporta
by greg456 on Apr 10, 2006 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What I know about him....
TOP DISAPPOINTMENT: Florida
Florida advanced to the championship round of the 2005 College World Series and returned the majority of its position players--including three preseason All-America picks--along with two veteran pitchers and a stable full of well-recruited arms who seemingly lacked only experience. The Gators opened the year at No. 3 and rose to No. 2 following a sweep at Miami. Florida beat Florida A&M 15-5 in a midweek game to improve to 7-1, but that's when trouble arose. Matt LaPorta, the 2005 NCAA home run leader, strained an oblique muscle in that game and missed the next 13 games--six of which resulted in losses. But Florida has gone just 4-7 since his return and stood 19-13, 3-6 overall and out of the Top 25. LaPorta was batting .239-4-15 and fellow All-Americans Brian Jeroloman (.230-3-24) and Adam Davis (.273-5-27) were also slumping. Meanwhile, Florida was still searching for an effective starter other than sophomore righthander Bryan Augenstein (6-2, 2.51) as it had a 4.30 ERA when he didn't pitch and had also committed 55 errors. Coach Pat McMahon won't make excuses out of shortstop and defensive stalwart Justin Tordi and 2005 ace Alan Horne signing professional contracts in August, but perhaps the Gators miss them more than was anticipated.
I'd like to know more to, we have lots of college fanatics here but they seem to be on the west coast (DrGiantsB).
If he continues to struggle you have to think he will drop in the draft, especially with most teams not really needing first basemen.
Does anyone have a diamond in the rough website were they get college info besides BA?
by colinadam on Apr 10, 2006 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
here's one
www.sebaseball.com
by PolkCountyRay on Apr 10, 2006 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ive been...
2000
Rockies had 7th overall pick
Rockies pick: Matt Harrington
My pick: Matt Harrington
Well, everybody knows this turned out to be the biggest draft saga in history. But at the time of the draft, I wasnt projecting that, and Im sure nobody else was either. Harrington was a kid that was throwing 98 MPH and was being called the best H.S. RHP in years, but fell to 7th due to bonus demands...
2001
Rockies had 44th overall pick
Rockies pick: Jayson Nix
My pick: Dallas McPherson
McPherson has reached the majors but has struggled with injuries and strikeouts, so he's back in AAA. Nix still has a chance to become something, given he is only 23 and hes at AAA. He did struggle for 2 straight years at AA, so this is a make-or-break year for him with Macri behind him at AA. All in all, McPherson has more potential, but so far both have disappointed.
2002
Rockies had 9th overall pick
Rockies pick: Jeff Francis
My pick: Jeremy Hermida
While Francis has not disappointed, winning the BA Minor League POY, USA TODAY POY, and many other top honors, Ill take a position player over a pitcher in Coors Field. Hermida is just reaching Florida this year, but to imagine him manning right field in Coors right now is a very intriguing sight. In hindsight, I wouldve taken Hermida, but Im not disappointed with Francis in the least bit.
2003
Rockies had 10th overall pick
Rockies pick: Ian Stewart
My pick: Lastings Milledge
I was in love with Milledge's tools, but the Rockies passed him over for Ian Stewart. I look back now, and I would take Stewart over Milledge, but both are premium prospects. I think Stewart will hit 40 HR in Coors. Milledge would put up big time numbers at a premium position, CF, but Im worried about his plate discipline. All in all, I would give Stewart a slight edge over Milledge, now and in the long run.
2004
Rockies had 9th overall pick
Rockies pick: Chris Nelson
My pick: Stephen Drew
I saw the opportunity to take Drew after the Padres had passed him over for the #1 pick, and he continued to slide. Its obvious that Drew is the superior prospect, already in AAA with a good chance to be in the majors soon. Nelson is repeating Low A, and while I still have a lot of faith in him that he will one day turn out to be a stud, theres a lot of question marks, and its clear Drew is one of the best prospects in baseball. I like Drew short term and long term.
2005
Rockies had 7th overall pick
Rockies pick: Troy Tulowitzki
My pick: Cameron Maybin
I was, as I was with Milledge, in love with Maybin's 5 tool ability. The thought of him roaming CF in Coors was too intriguing for me to pass up. At the time, I was shocked as to why the Rockies would spend a top 10 pick on a shortstop for the 2nd straight year. But after watching Tulo, Im fairly confident they made the right choice. Theres a much better chance he pans out than the toolsy Maybin, and Tulo has a chance to hit 25-30 HR at a very premium position. I like the Rockies pick, and Ill stick with that pick of it being the better of the two. I would not be surprised to see Maybin become a future superstar though...
Ill be doing one again this year, of course with the whole pool of players to pick from besides one because we have the 2nd overall pick...
by bballfanlvnv on Apr 10, 2006 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
impressive
I've never done one, but I'm planning to this year.
by jeck on Apr 10, 2006 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good post
With the 17th pick, they took David Murphy, OFer, out of Baylor
with the 32nd pick, they took Matt Murton, Ofer from Georgia Tech.
I remember falling in love with Conor Jackson's scouting report, and praying that the Sox would draft him. Clearly, it didn't happen, but from rumors I've heard in Boston papers, they were close to taking him. Apparently, there was an area scout who though Jackson was terrible or that Murphy was great, and he convinced the Sox to go with Murphy. Needless to say, he no longer works for the organization.
I know it's easy to say in hindsight, but here are some players the Sox passed up in favor of Murphy: Brad Snyder, Conor Jackson, Matt Moses, Chad Cordero, Brandon Wood, Chad Billingsley, Daric Barton, Carlos Quentin, Adam Miller
And in they let Adam jones and Jarrod Saltalamacchia go in favor of Murton (which really wouldn't be that bad except they traded Murton)
by Jgaztambide on Apr 10, 2006 3:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Orioles
by rhd on Apr 10, 2006 4:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rays
by Tyler on Apr 10, 2006 7:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tigers
2002:
Tigers draft 8th Scott Moore SS, HS California
My choice Jeremy Hermida OF, HS Florida
Hermida ended up going at 11. I fell in love with his bat when I heard the reports that he had the best pure bat in the draft. The Tigers were weak everywhere at this point but I wanted his all around power and contact.
2003:
Tigers draft 3rd Kyle Sleeth RHP, Wake Forest
My choice Kyle Sleeth RHP, Wake Forest
I wanted Kyle only because I knew there was no chance of Delmon Young/Rickie Weeks falling. Sleeth had a good debut at Lakeland before going under the knife for TJ surgery. He is due back this season. This was a tough draft to pick 3rd as there was no clear cut player after Weeks/Young.
2004:
Tigers draft 2nd Justin Verlander RHP, ODU
My choice Stephen Drew SS, FSU
I wanted his bat into the Tigers system and I didn't think Verlander would do well due to the control concerns.
I think the Tigers beat me on this one. Drew is a great prospect with big potential. BUT Verlander has shown to be a potential ace in the making with killer stuff and much improved control.
2005:
Tigers draft 10th Cameron Maybin CF, HS North Carolina
My choice Cameron Maybin CF, HS North Carolina
Now as you can tell by now I actually waited until their picks came up to do my shadow drafting. As soon as I knew Maybin would be there I wanted him. Huge tools, huge ceiling. The Tigers really didn't have much in the way of upper level talent.
As you can see my usual draft lean is towards position talent. I am leaning that way again this year for the Tigers at 6 but I still need more information.
by VtTigers on Apr 10, 2006 10:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Verlander
by nms on Apr 11, 2006 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because
by Tyler on Apr 11, 2006 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
Great job by the Tigers recognizing the changes that needed to be made and scouting that it would be possible for him to make them.
by VtTigers on Apr 11, 2006 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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