Community Projection: Jeremy Hermida

by John Sickels on Mar 7, 2006 9:26 PM EST in News

We begin our series of Community Projections this evening with Jeremy Hermida of the Marlins.

For those of you who are new here, last spring we did a series of Community Projections for player performance, and for the most part the projections turned out to be as accurate (or inaccurate) as any of the more fancy formula-based projection systems.

For Hermida, I want you to project

Batting Average
OBP
SLG
home runs
steals

Assume he gets 500 at-bats.

Please take your projection seriously...don't say Hermida will hit .378 with 69 homers or something silly. The idea behind this is laid out in a post from last spring called Spaghetti baseball.

Post your projection in the comments thread.

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Comments

I like him a ton

.300/.405/.480 20 HR, 25 SB

by LizardKing51 @ Minor League Ball on Mar 7, 2006 9:32 PM EST reply actions

Hermida

.285/.375/.440

20 hr, 25 sb

by goheels on Mar 7, 2006 9:32 PM EST reply actions

a true cant miss guy

But it still will be his first year .280 / .380 / 17 hrs / 20 sb's

by goalieguy on Mar 7, 2006 9:34 PM EST reply actions

forgot slugging %

.475

by goalieguy on Mar 7, 2006 10:14 PM EST up reply actions

Hermida

.270 BA
.335 OBA
.455 SLG

17 HR
20 Steals

by cinquad on Mar 7, 2006 9:34 PM EST reply actions

Why

the low OBP? If anything his OBP is the most likely thing to stay consistent with the majors -- a .360-.380 OBP for year 1 sounds better, with .400 being best case and .330 being absolute worst case

by mroak89 on Mar 7, 2006 11:09 PM EST up reply actions

Hermiiiiii

.290/.410/.460

26hr, 28sb

MavBall

by Maverick @ Minor League Ball on Mar 7, 2006 9:34 PM EST reply actions

Hermida

Batting Average .274
OBP .379
SLG .412
home runs 19
steals 23

by SmokeyJoeWood on Mar 7, 2006 9:39 PM EST reply actions

Hermida

Park is tough to hit in, but he's got tons of power. I think he has a great first year.

In 500 ABs -

.282/.378/.474 - 22 HR, 18 Steals

Now, that's 500 ABs. I dropped a few steals because I don't know how much they'll let him run.

by sasquatch83 on Mar 7, 2006 9:41 PM EST reply actions

Hermida

.280/.360/.440
24 HR
22 SB

by Deech on Mar 7, 2006 9:42 PM EST reply actions

hermida proj.

.284/.365/.445
19 HR, 22 SB

by ComandoEep on Mar 7, 2006 9:43 PM EST reply actions

I'm with PECOTA

.255/.340/.435

20 HR
20 SB

by delomir on Mar 7, 2006 9:43 PM EST reply actions

2006

.265/.355/.450
19 HR
16 SB

"I may not be a class act, but I'm an American." Ron Artest on wanting to play for the Olympic team

by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on Mar 7, 2006 9:48 PM EST reply actions

2006

.268/.410/.490

22 HR
20 SB

by FunWithHeadlines on Mar 7, 2006 9:51 PM EST reply actions

hermida

.281/.395/.468
17 HR
16 SB

by jeck on Mar 7, 2006 9:52 PM EST reply actions

2nd in ROY

.272/.377/.459
21 HR
18 SB

by mjwelch11 on Mar 7, 2006 9:55 PM EST reply actions

2nd to who?

Who do you predict will be first?

by rojosoto on Mar 8, 2006 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

my sleeper for ROY

Adrian Gonzalez

by yacck23 on Mar 8, 2006 6:33 PM EST up reply actions

He

doesn't have rookie eligibility

by Brickhaus on Mar 10, 2006 12:33 AM EST up reply actions

Hermida

He's a special player indeed...

.270/.361/.448

17 HR
24 SB

With a huge follow-up season.

by nygiants5811 on Mar 7, 2006 10:05 PM EST reply actions

gotta temper the enthusiasm a little ...

Batting Average .245
OBP .330
SLG .410
home runs 18
steals 15

Jumping from AA to the majors is hard, especially in that park.

by JeffersJV on Mar 7, 2006 10:14 PM EST reply actions

My Projection

Yep, he's never really been a .300+ hitter in the minors but so many people seem to think he's going to hit .290 or better in Dolphin Stadium.

I think this is more likely:

.250 / .340 / .440

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Mar 7, 2006 10:31 PM EST up reply actions

I forgot...

20 HR
18 SB

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Mar 8, 2006 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

Projection

.280/.345/.430
18 HR
20 SB

by Ron Mexico on Mar 7, 2006 10:23 PM EST reply actions

ProPlayerProjection

.271/.384/.441/21HR/18SB

by asinwreck on Mar 7, 2006 10:37 PM EST reply actions

Projection

.270/.360/.440
21 HR
15 SB

by albo4lyfe on Mar 7, 2006 11:00 PM EST reply actions

jeremy

.274/.345/.425

16 homers, 14 steals

by bolton on Mar 7, 2006 11:06 PM EST reply actions

hgjh

.270/.375/.460
20 HR
18 SB

by ultxmxpx on Mar 7, 2006 11:08 PM EST reply actions

Hermida

I really like Hermida, especially since he's on my DMB team, but going from AA to the bigs is tough, especially when you have to play half your games in Dolphins/ProPlayer/Florida Place.

2006 Prediction
.266/.356/.448
18 HR
16 SB/4 CS

with a season in his PRIME looking more along the lines of .290/.381/.523 with 30 HR, 90 BB, and 25 SB.

by AucklandGM on Mar 7, 2006 11:14 PM EST reply actions

hes not

going to ADD steals as he grows.
Hes not a burner anyway, more of a smart pick his spots guy.

As the HRs go up the SBs go down. he'll be in the 7-12 range at his peak

by nms on Mar 8, 2006 12:34 AM EST up reply actions

Why not?

Bobby Abreu did. As he gets older, he'll be getting on base a lot more. There's no reason Hermida can't steal bases well into his late 20's.

by DrunkIrish on Mar 8, 2006 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

Hermida

.280/.371/.469
21 HR, 17 SB

I consider this pretty optimistic, given his home park and the experience level of the projected starting lineup.

by Ian Miller on Mar 7, 2006 11:14 PM EST reply actions

.290/.407/.453

(but, my goodness, that line seems unlikely; is this guy Bobby Abreu, part deux?)

13 Hr, 21 Sb

by Azteca on Mar 7, 2006 11:21 PM EST reply actions

hermida

.280/.335/.450 19 HR's, 21 SB

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Mar 7, 2006 11:33 PM EST reply actions

hermida

.275/.370/.470 21 HR, 15 SB

by BigBell on Mar 7, 2006 11:34 PM EST reply actions

projection

.278/.365/.430
15 HR, 18 SBs (6 CS)

))<>(( forever.

by jayg @ Minor League Ball on Mar 7, 2006 11:35 PM EST reply actions

ah yes

The ol' back and forth.

by lombardizzy on Mar 8, 2006 2:31 AM EST up reply actions

Here you go

500 AB

136 H, 39 2B, 3 3B, 19 HR, 71 BB, 5 HBP, 18 SB

Percentages work out to .272/.368/.476, OPS of .844. 20 HR, 18 SB.

by mrkupe on Mar 7, 2006 11:39 PM EST reply actions

19

Just realized that my HR figures are inconsistent. Should be 19 HR, slugging percentage was calculated using that figure.

by mrkupe on Mar 8, 2006 6:45 PM EST up reply actions

my thoughts

like many here, I love Hermida. i've seen a few in this vaccinity, but here's my projection:

.265 / .380 / .440

23 homers
20 SB

One can only hope

by Jgaztambide on Mar 7, 2006 11:42 PM EST reply actions

major flaw! No Protection

Although I love his sweet stroke and he should be great for years his lineup around him is lacking. Without the proper protection he wont get as much to hit.

2006 Prediction
.272/.378/.451
16 HR
18 SB

by JD Sussman on Mar 8, 2006 12:01 AM EST reply actions

well..

Sorry, but that is assuming that Florida bats him 5th behind Miggy and Jacobs. And not at the two.

by JD Sussman on Mar 8, 2006 12:14 AM EST up reply actions

Where did my post go

267/355/450

12 SBs 5 CSs
21 HR

by nms on Mar 8, 2006 12:36 AM EST reply actions

Hermie

.271/.353/.487

-peter

by PeterF on Mar 8, 2006 12:44 AM EST reply actions

Hermida

I like the conservative approach.

.265/.345/.435
15 HRs
15 SB

"If you cant answer a man's argument, all is not lost, you can still call him vile names" - Hubbard

by QuixoticQuasiQuandary on Mar 8, 2006 12:54 AM EST reply actions

Hermida

.271/.353/.442, 18 HR, 18 SB

by montalban on Mar 8, 2006 1:16 AM EST reply actions

Hermida

.283/.374/.471

18 HR/ 21 SB

by hybrid on Mar 8, 2006 1:19 AM EST reply actions

Hermida

.290/.370/.480, 22 HR, 18 SB

If he's hitting in front of Miggy, he's going to get pitches to hit. He seems to be talented enough to figure out what to do with those pitches. I'm assuming he's one hellofalot better than Mike Jacobs, who I think is a bit overrated after his Shane Spencer-like explosion, and Hermida will bat third, Miggy fourth, Jake fifth. If not, I think the OBP and steals could be significantly higher, with the power/average down more.

by MontrealMets on Mar 8, 2006 1:25 AM EST reply actions

thus far, I think everyone's on about the same....

...page...but I think the steals are a bit high and the power is low...I know it was a small sample size, but Hermi hit 4 HRs in, what, 50 ABs last season? This is the first of many great seasons...

.278/.382/.454
26 HR
17 SB

...and I LOVE Jeremy...I see him settling into the .290-300 avg. range with 30-35 HRs and 10-15 SBs annually...and he'll be good for a couple breakout/MVP-type seasons...like a .320-45-125 deal with 20 SBs...

by daveh33 on Mar 8, 2006 1:29 AM EST reply actions

Hermida

This guy is your NL rookie of the year:

.285/.375/.425

21 HR
15 SB

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Mar 8, 2006 1:45 AM EST reply actions

Hermida

.273/.356/.427

18 HR
22 SB

by Hotwheelz on Mar 8, 2006 1:57 AM EST reply actions

projection

268/377/435
15 HR
12 SB

i also think he'll get injured and miss about 20 games.

by jpahk on Mar 8, 2006 1:59 AM EST reply actions

275/385/440

23 HR, 19 SB

Bet ya Kevin Youkilis is going to put up similar/better numbers next year (minus stolen bases...)

by forage @ Minor League Ball on Mar 8, 2006 3:53 AM EST reply actions

Ok

He's five or six years older and been in and out of the majors the past few years, whereas Hermida was in double A last year. PLUS, Youk, if he gets to play this year, will have hitters all around him. Hermida has Miguel and whole bunch of question marks in that lineup.

by williethekid20 on Mar 8, 2006 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

I agree with him...

...about next season. I was thinking the same thing when I filled out my projection: decent batting avg, very good OBP, moderate power. Sure, Hermida's ceiling is miles above Youks', but his point about next year seems pretty reasonable.

by SmokeyJoeWood on Mar 8, 2006 1:35 PM EST up reply actions

Which

I never argued. Just thought it was a strange statement to make and for some reason couldn't keep myself from responding.

by williethekid20 on Mar 8, 2006 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

True, but....

Its true that Kevin Youkilis has hit his physical ceiling, but I think he could still be better. Last year, he got about 230 AB total, between Pawtucket and Boston, while Hermida got more than 400. Splitting time between Triple A and the majors, he hasn't had a chance to really adapt to major league pitchers, which is why I say he will improve at least a little bit more to have career average of about 290/415/450

Free Kevin Youkilis!!!

by forage @ Minor League Ball on Mar 8, 2006 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

.287/.410/.430

21 HR
20 SB

ROY

by goingyard on Mar 8, 2006 1:05 PM EST reply actions

280/380/460

18 HR
21 SB

by BaseballBrain on Mar 8, 2006 1:16 PM EST reply actions

Hermida

.288/.380/.455

22 HR
16 SB

Go Tribe...

by matt k on Mar 8, 2006 1:31 PM EST reply actions

This year

.270/.370/.465

20 HR
18 SB

This is pretty close to what Grady did last year with a lot more protection, so I'll go with that.

by williethekid20 on Mar 8, 2006 1:35 PM EST reply actions

More Steals

I think he will have more SB OPP than people are projecting.

.270/.350/.400

15 HR
30 SB

by yoda1 on Mar 8, 2006 1:51 PM EST reply actions

Park Factors

According to DMB, Dolphin stadium has a 111 park factor homeruns for LH batters (meaning 11% above average.)

In 500 at-bats, I project:
Batting Average - .290
OBP - .405
SLG - .485
home runs - 21
steals - 26

by rojosoto on Mar 8, 2006 2:16 PM EST reply actions

How 'bout

.285/.395/.505

HR: 24
SB: 31

by RayRay on Mar 8, 2006 2:28 PM EST reply actions

hmmmmm

I'll go with .269/.360/.458
HR: 19
SB: 20

by marc w @ Minor League Ball on Mar 8, 2006 2:37 PM EST reply actions

Protection

.270/.375/.460

An awesome beginning to what has the makings of a promising career.

On the subject of a lack of protection in the lineup I just don't buy it. Todd Helton has had 0 protection almost his entire career. I don't think Jeremy will force the bat. If he gets bad pitches I think it makes it that more likely that he'll be able to get on base. This isn't the kind of hitter that you want to waste balls on.

He'll be able to create hitters counts. Similar to Jason Giambi.

by RMF on Mar 8, 2006 2:41 PM EST reply actions

.272/.388/.493

.272/.388/.493, 26 HR, 22 SB, 96 R, 88 RBI.

Teh awesome.

by Klostrophobic on Mar 8, 2006 3:23 PM EST reply actions

i'll say

.275/.380/.480

22 HRs
20 SBs

by bjanusch on Mar 8, 2006 3:43 PM EST reply actions

Here's to Hermida

Batting Average .269
OBP .356
SLG .423
home runs 17
steals 19

by jnorman76 on Mar 8, 2006 4:46 PM EST reply actions

re

.267/.351/.437

22 HR
26 SB

by smt on Mar 8, 2006 4:55 PM EST reply actions

Hermida

Batting Average .262
OBP .359
SLG .419
home runs 26
steals 14

by DaninKC on Mar 8, 2006 5:00 PM EST reply actions

hermida

Batting Average... .259
OBP... .334
SLG... .413
home runs... 17
steals... 18

#269

by mrmetaa on Mar 8, 2006 5:17 PM EST reply actions

Hermida

Avg .280
.obp .360
slg .470
hr 16
sb 15

by gashousegang on Mar 8, 2006 5:41 PM EST reply actions

Guess

.270/.360/.480, 18 HR, 17 SB, lotsa doubles

by Brickhaus on Mar 8, 2006 6:33 PM EST reply actions

re

.262/.351/.418
16 steals
14 home runs

by bootsy on Mar 8, 2006 7:34 PM EST reply actions

Hermida

.285/.390/.445, 18 HR, 18 steals

by TheBoneMan on Mar 8, 2006 7:45 PM EST reply actions

Jeremy spoke

.275/.365/.470 18 HR 23 SB

by ephinz on Mar 8, 2006 8:36 PM EST reply actions

Jeremy:

500AB 135h .270avg. .340ob% .395slg% 8hr 25sb

by steve johnson on Mar 8, 2006 8:38 PM EST reply actions

might as well go down in flames.

.245/.345/.428
15 HR
14 SB
that's a lot of good stuff for a 1st year player, but counting on the fact that everyone says he's a stud and they know what they're talking about.

by dryice on Mar 8, 2006 9:02 PM EST reply actions

guys

pro player park likely creates more batting average, and takes away from slugging percentage, because its very spacious, creating more doubles while simulataneously taking away some homers.

We have, I fear, confused power with greatness.

by jrfelix on Mar 8, 2006 11:05 PM EST reply actions