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Matsuzaka II

Last week Daisuke Matsuzaka had a solid outing against the Mexican National Team. I wrote up a simple scouting report on it. For the championship game I did the same thing. Even though he had a 95 pitch count to work with, Dai-san only went 4 innings. Shunsuke Watanabe was brought in after, and deservedly so.

Star-divide

No. of Pitches: 62
Fastballs: 37 (60%)
Sliders: 12
Splits: 10
Curves: 3

Like last time, it's very hard to differentiate between the slider and the curve. They are about the same on the radar gun, one is a hard downer, the other is a short slider. He mixed up his pitches a bit more than he did against Mexico, but he was still a primarily a fastball pitcher.

Fastballs: 37
92 MPH: 6 (16.2%)
93 MPH: 9 (24.3%)
94 MPH: 17 (45.8%)
95 MPH: 3 (8.1%)
96 MPH: 2 (5.4%)
Average: 93.6 MPH
Strikes: 27 (73.0%)
Balls: 10 (27.0%)
Swings at Strikes: 22 (81.5%)
Misses: 8 (36.4%)
Foul: 8 (36.4%)
In Play: 6 (27.3%)

Compared to the last outing, he had a little more velocity on his fastball. He hit 94 twice in that start, and sat there most of the day. He was typically at 93-94 with good command. He didn't have the same command he had last outing, but it was still well above average. He stayed up in the zone with his fastball most of the night, simply overpowering the Cuban hitters. 9 batters ended their AB against him on fastballs. 3 of them struck out. 3 hits 2 fly outs and a grounder. 3 of them were what I would define has a linedrive, not a bad rate considering they swung at 22 pitches. His fastball seemed to have an extra gear, just exploding to the plate. It certainly didn't look like a flat one, but it's hard to grade that stuff off a TV screen. I think the ratings I gave him last time are fair, and seem about right.

Velocity: 65
Movement: 40
Control: 65
Overall: 65

He had a lot more consistency on his sliders tonight. He threw them 81-84 MPH. He didn't strikeout a batter on one, and the HR to Eduardo Paret was on the slider. He only threw 4 hard curves, these had a little more downard movement than the sliders. They're so similar it could probably classified as the same pitch. Again, I think the ratings from last time are about right, although the slider was a little better.

Hard Slider
Movement: 55
Control: 50
Overall: 55

Hard Curve
Movement: 55
Control: 35
Overall: 45

They both have plus movement at times, but the consistency has not been there for either pitch. The splitter he threw today was excellent. It may have been a straight change but it had excellent movement and was a lot better than anticipated. He threw a hard one around 80 and a soft one, which was probably the forkball. The hitters were way out in front and had very good movement. Matsuzaka did not throw enough last game to let me grade the pitch, but I liked it.

Movement: 50
Control: 50
Overall: 50

He showed excellent control with the pitch and I don't think he uses it enough. He exclusively used his breaking pitches against righties, he did not throw any to lefties. He exclusively threw his splitters and changes to lefties, he didn't throw any righties. This is provided that my eyes don't suck. Most of this was expected. Daisuke Matsuzaka threw a very good fastball, with good breaking pitches that were inconsistent. He has 3 or 4 solid major league pitches. The only thing I'd like to see him do more is have consistency with his offspeed breaking pitches.

Stamina: 80
Pitchability: 65
Durability: 70

Again, no surprises there. He still reminds me a lot of Prior with the multiple hard breaking pitches and the command of an explosive 93-94 MPH fastball with good control on it. His final line was: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 5 SO.

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Splitter?
I've heard some people say that what the announcers are calling a split is really the gyroball.  Could you tell it was a split or could it possibly have been the elusive gyroball.  

CAN SOMEONE PLEASE FILM A JAPANESE PITCHER THROWING THIS THING.  ALL I'VE GOT IS A HIGH-SCHOOLER, I'M INRIGUED AND WANT TO SEE THIS THING.

-end of rant, I'm calm now:)

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Mar 21, 2006 12:56 AM EST reply actions  

Report
Nice report again.  Thanks!
"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Mar 21, 2006 12:57 AM EST up reply actions  

P.S.
He just won the MVP of the Classic.
"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Mar 21, 2006 1:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Gyroball
My take on the gyro is that it is the slow forkball, but has a little cutting action. It looks like a forkball coming out of his hand on the video on the net.

Anyways Matsuzaka  doesn't throw a gyroball.

by Ienpw on Mar 21, 2006 1:05 AM EST up reply actions  

i still don't understand
why on that article you linked there is a downloadable link to a video of Matsuzaka throwing it....
(After pitcher tells GM he will pitch half of the games, complete them and they will all be QS)The GM has an orgasm and a heart attack at the same time.-Shamus

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Mar 21, 2006 4:32 AM EST up reply actions  

I was watching..
While i was watching i clearly saw those pitchs as splitters. Period. I know we all love this concept of a Gyroball but that was not it. What i've read on the pitch is that it acts more like a riduclous slider going out wide and breaking back over the plate more than a foot. This guys is nasty and will be a great addition to major league teams soon, but lets not get to hyped up about this gyroball. Watch the tape, those were clearly splitters(or forkballs).

by JD Sussman on Mar 21, 2006 11:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Gyroball
Matsuzaka does, in fact, throw a gyroball.  It's his main pitch and he's well known for it.

I once had some good slo-mo video of it that Will Carroll from Baseball Prospectus sent me.  (I don't know Will Carroll other than as a fan of his work.  I emailed him and he was kind enough to reply with that video).

The gyroball is finished with a pronounced pronation of the forearm, turning the thumb down (as in throwing a football).  Matsuzaka gets a lot of horizontal rotation on the ball, so it's spinning counter-clockwise (from the batter's point of view).  I've read that there is little, if any, downward break on the pitch and all the movement is sideways.  The velocity is close to his regular fastball.

by losgigantes on Mar 21, 2006 10:07 PM EST up reply actions  

gyro
All the decent articles on the gyro state that it's a pitch that moves toward the pitchers glove side.  So if it's a right hander like D.M. throwing and the ball moves into the right handed batter or away from the left handed batter you can be sure it IS NOT a gyroball.  

Here is the best article I have found on the mysterious pitch...

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-gyro031306&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

by tbac on Mar 21, 2006 10:23 PM EST up reply actions  

yep
...Away from right handers, into LHs...

Check out pgs 89-91 in "Saving the Pitcher"

by losgigantes on Mar 22, 2006 9:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Impressive
The guy has an arsenal. He has a very smooth delivery and I'm betting his slow wind up helps screw up the timing for hitters.

If he can stay healthy, I'm willing to bet he can make the transition to MLB and become a top 10-15 starter right away. That being said, when do we expect him to make the move?

by yoda1 on Mar 21, 2006 10:15 AM EST reply actions  

making the move
He currently is in his 7'th season so my best guess is 07 a long shot, and 08 fairly probable.  The Lions stand to gain financially in a very big way when he is posted and am sure they won't let him walk for nothing.  He was "promised" a posting for this year but Seibu reneged on the so called promise but do agree that he is the real deal and could possibly be a top ten caliber pitcher right away.

by Roadkill on Mar 21, 2006 8:37 PM EST up reply actions  

For what it's worth...
... according to Gammons, they've promised (again) to post him after the season ends.

by abbreviatedman on Mar 22, 2006 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Japanese promises
They're really come true. they're just an added 'fake' incentive to produce in the upcoming season. Kei Igawa was supposed to be posted too, but they said no and pointed to his win loss total. The Lions did the same thing about Matsuzaka's last season.

Japanese statistical analysis from the industries standpoint is like 30 years behind ours here.

A couple other players have gotten promises after this season. The only ones worth mentioning are Hirotoshi Ishii and Akinori Iwamura. As far as I know Koji Uehara has not gotten a promise, though he's an FA in a couple of seasons and wants to come stateside.

by Ienpw on Mar 22, 2006 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Balance
The one thing that I've noticed about Matsuzaka is that he has excellent balance throughout his delivery, which helps him to sync up his motion and not overthrow.  Lots of times when he comes out of his motion he is standing straight up, barely moving, as if he were waiting for the bus or something.

by limozeen on Mar 22, 2006 12:38 AM EST reply actions  

Seeing is believing
I Tivo'd Matsuzaka's last two starts in the WBC and slo-moed several pitches that I just couldn't place.  The pitch (against lefthanded hitters) came out of his hand and broke into the hitter like a slurve.  But then midway to the plate the ball took a turn away from the hitter and dropped dramitically out of the zone.

Now I'm no Gyroball expert, but that pitch was clearly NOT a splitter or forkball.  I've never seen a pitch do what I described above, ever.

He probably only threw it 10 times in each game but it's worth a look.  I believe ESPN is showing the final game a few times over the next couple of days.

"When people talk, listen completely. Most people never listen." (Hemingway)

by jmoultz on Mar 22, 2006 4:38 PM EST reply actions  

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