Which next-tier pitching prospect will be best?

by FunWithHeadlines on Mar 14, 2006 1:56 PM EST

Let's leave aside the superstar prospects like Felix or Billingsley or Verlander or Cain. I want to get a community opinion on the next tier of guys, the ones who might pitch soon but probably won't be up until 2007, and then might not really stick until 2008+. Looking at John's ratings, I see the next big group to be from the five guys I've put in the polls. Discussion of my opinions after the break.

Lester seems to be spoken of as the best of this bunch, but he'll be going to the AL East, and that ain't easy to deal with.

Nippert is now getting more attention, even though he's been on the radar for a couple of years. Will he be part of the next way of Diamondback talent that lifts this franchise? Does his home park hurt his chances?

Pelfrey is a bit unproven, but seems to have the goods and is a big guy. But the Mets have a rough record with prospects. Still, Shea is a nice place to pitch, and the NL East is not as scary as other divisions.

Sanchez is getting really nice press, and the opportunity is going to be there for him. Does he get rushed? Does he reach his full potential?

Volquez has a shot at making the rotation this year, and is certainly not far away. Great prospect, but oh that ballpark!

If you could build your team around one of these five, figuring that you might get the first five or so years before you have to deal with free agency, which one do you think produces the best overall numbers during his first five full-time years?

Poll

Best overall stats for their first 5 years in the majors as full-time starters?

Jon Lester, Boston

69 votes

Dustin Nippert, Arizona

19 votes

Mike Pelfrey, Mets

103 votes

Anibal Sanchez, Florida

27 votes

Edison Volquez, Texas

22 votes

240 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

My vote

I'm going with Pelfrey's talent and hope the Mets don't screw it up. But I think Sanchez is a close second.

I think Lester is there with them, but pitching in the AL East is rough for a youngster, and I'm afraid his numbers might suffer while he learns on the job.

by FunWithHeadlines on Mar 14, 2006 1:58 PM EST reply actions

I think

Sanchez ends up moving to the pen anyway...

Marlins Minors

by Maverick @ Minor League Ball on Mar 14, 2006 2:18 PM EST reply actions

Why?

I hadn't heard that. Is that because of team need, or because of a flaw they seen in Sanchez's stuff as a starter?

by FunWithHeadlines on Mar 14, 2006 2:59 PM EST up reply actions

From Ken Rosenthal

at Foxsports.com

"Don't be surprised if the Marlins convert right-hander Anibal Sanchez -- the principal return in the Josh Beckett trade -- into a reliever. Sanchez, sidelined with shoulder tightness earlier in the spring, throws with more effort than some of the Marlins' other young starters, and he could dominate out of the bullpen with his 95-mph and power curve. At 6-feet, 180 pounds, he is built like the Nationals' Chad Cordero. ..."

by colinadam on Mar 14, 2006 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

Sanchez

I've seen Sanchez pitch several times, I believe 5, but that's an unofficial count. Anyways, in every single start i've seen him pitch, he fades at around the 4th inning or so. I don't have a specific pitch number, cuz I didn't keep track of it, but his curveball gets wild, his fastball loses movement, his changeup flattens out. It ain't pretty. For three innings he seems unhittable, and then he loses it slowly but surely. he's got bigtime stamina problems.

Also, I'm not sure if this is only related to stamina, but he struggled at the end of last season. That could have to do with AA hitters catching up to him, the heat (even if it was in Portland, Maine), or whatever, but it seems to me as though anibal has stamina issues both within the realm of his starts and within an entire season.

Keep in mind he threw a lot moe pitches and innings this past season.

I had heard that Anibal tried to add some bulk to his frame during the offseason but he wasn't able to keep any weight on (much like Casey Fossum a few years ago), but I didn't hear it from anything like BA or a Marlins or Sox scout, so take it for what it's worth.

by Jgaztambide on Mar 14, 2006 6:03 PM EST up reply actions