Chris Young, Ariz...

by SLK on Mar 13, 2006 4:02 PM EST Comment 30 comments

This may speak more to quality of Arizona's prospects, or to whether Young in underappreciated as a prospect by some (not John).

What makes Young any less special than Grady Sizemore of 2 years ago? Sizemore is probably one of the more valuable commodities in all of baseball, and yet it would appear that Young is on track to match him step for step once he gets to the bigs....

So how is this guy not a top ten prospect?

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Short answer

Contact rate.

I love Young, and plenty of people are pretty high on him, but the big question about him (that for some pushes him out of the top 15 or so and into the 20s or even 30s) is his ability to make contact at higher levels. He's also about a year behind Sizemore in age-relative-to-league (21 at AA vs. 20 for Sizemore).

by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Mar 13, 2006 4:12 PM EST reply actions

Young

While I agree that Young should probably be considered a top ten prospect or at least very close, I don't really see Grady Sizemore as a very good comp. First of all, while they both have good speed, I think Young is a better base stealer and from reports I've read, probably not as good defensively as Sizemore. On the other hand, I think Young has quite a bit more power potential than Sizemore just based on what he's done so far in the minors, especially when you consider how difficult a hitting environment Birmingham is. Probably the biggest difference between Sizemore and Young though will be the batting average department. Sizemore has always been a very good hitter for average and I think projects as even better down the road and also controls the strike zone fairly well. I can't see young hitting much over .280 in the majors with most likely a very high amount of strikeouts.

by neutralluke on Mar 13, 2006 4:14 PM EST reply actions

Yep

If I recall correctly, I think Young's defense rates pretty well -- at least enough to stay in CF if AZ wants. But I agree that Sizemore's and Young's offensive strengths are different enough that they aren't directly comparable in terms of likely career path.

by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Mar 13, 2006 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

defensively

Young should be an excellent centerfielder; his only average tool is his arm; it won't play in RF but is fine for CF. Sizemore is at best an average CFer, and his arm is not that good either. Most likely he'll move to LF when the kid CLE got from the Dodgers is up for good.

I don't think Sizemore is a good comp for Young; I actually think that Mike Cameron is worst case scenario for Young; best case scenario (and I have written this before, so bear with me) is Eric Davis, with fewer stolen bases. But I see no reason why Young won't put up a bunch of 30 homer, 30 stolen bases seasons. With .275+ batting average.

by levski on Mar 13, 2006 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

frankie g

he was never a true CF prospect. so sizemore would probably still play cf if frankie G does come up and become a consistent starting big leaguer (which is something i have my doubts he will be doing)

by npurcell on Mar 13, 2006 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

frankie g

most of what I've read has him pushing sizemore to a corner once he's up for good, maybe in 2007...

by levski on Mar 13, 2006 5:31 PM EST reply actions

I doubt that

I haven't seen that anywhere and would be really surprised if that happened.

by Flynn Blake on Mar 13, 2006 9:41 PM EST up reply actions

Franklin

I honestly don't see Franklin developing enough to be a ML starter, let alone enough to move Grady.

In '05, Grady showed an average to below average arm. This was something that was known about him from the day he was drafted. He was a QB in HS, but is was mostly a running offense, so that says something about his arm. The thing I noticed about Grady is his ability to get really good jumps and be in the right position to compensate for a weaker arm.

Franklin has the power to hit more HR than Sizemore, but his swing is simply too long. That explains the high K rate he's had throughout the minors. I think his K/BB rate was something like 116/26. I'm sure someone will correct me on that stat. The point is, FG just isn't currently good enough to push Grady, and my personal feeling is that he won't pan out as more than a 4th OF.

by lenred on Mar 13, 2006 10:34 PM EST up reply actions

More Franklin G....

Again, for what it's worth...Guttierrez has apparently changed his approach at the plate and had a 1:1 K/BB rate in winter ball. He seems to be maintaining that improved plate discipline in Spring Training so far. This initial adjustment seems to come at the expense of power, but he's still very young.

by APV on Mar 14, 2006 11:13 AM EST up reply actions

Winter ball

I think (again, I'm not positive, but 75% sure) that last year's winter ball FG had around 1:1 K:BB and that didn't translate into the same ratio'd success during the season.

I'm hoping he does well and having him in the mix in OF instead of Hollandsworth would be a good thing for the Indians.

by lenred on Mar 14, 2006 1:55 PM EST up reply actions

Then again...

It could also be more of a statement on his HS coach's offensive philosophy. Nearly every school in the conference I cover is a running team, yet the school I cover goes with more of an Urban Meyer-style spread offense. The biggest hitch is actually having a quarterback that completes passes. ;)

That said, his arm's pretty much common knowledge at this point, and he's been able to show that he can compensate for it in other ways in the field, so as long as you're not expecting him to have a Vlad-esque cannon...

by drjayphd on Mar 14, 2006 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

bpro's book

I was just reading the Frankie G entry yesterday in the 2006 prospectus, and they have him moving Sizemore to LF in 2007. fwiw

by levski on Mar 14, 2006 10:28 AM EST up reply actions

re

Was Grady Sizemore a top 10 prospect on most lists? I don't recall that; I know Sickels only gave him a B+.

by bootsy on Mar 13, 2006 7:07 PM EST reply actions

Baseball America

had Sizemore at #9 in 2004, ahead of Fielder (10), Marte (11), David Wright (21), Jeff Franceour (27) and Jeremy Hermida (28)

by SLK on Mar 13, 2006 10:01 PM EST up reply actions

the problem was

sizemore wasn't rookie-eligible last year because of his 150-ish AB in 2004. he was definitely highly-regarded and if he had still been on prospect lists going into last season, he would have been very highly ranked. BA said he would have been the indians' #1 ahead of adam miller (remember, this was before miller's injury woes)--and adam miller was ranked in the top 5 prospects in all of baseball by numerous sources.

i'll admit to a major mancrush on sizemore. if he can learn to hit lefties in the next couple of years, he'll be a megastar. he's already damn good.

by jpahk on Mar 14, 2006 1:05 AM EST up reply actions

Who

had Adam Miller ranked in the top 5 of all baseball? Granted, I haven't seen that many lists, but I've never seen him in even a top 5 RHP list. I'm real curious now, alternate lists are fun.

by abbreviatedman on Mar 14, 2006 12:26 PM EST up reply actions

baseball analysts

had him ranked at #4.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/01/the_wtny_top_5.php

their list went delmon, felix, marte, adam miller, mcpherson.

bear in mind this was a year ago, so this isn't that surprising. at the time he was a bit ahead of billingsley and close to even with cain for 2nd-best RHP behind felix.

by jpahk on Mar 14, 2006 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

Young V. Sizemore

Head to head crystal ball prediction (based on PECOTA) for their careers:

BA: Sizemore gets the nod
OBP: Young
SLG: Young
HR: Young
SB: Young
Defense: Young
Intangibles: Not enough information. I love Sizemore's energy, hustle, and enthusiasm. I haven't really had the chance to see Young play.

Sizemore won't be very far behind Young's numbers, but I think Young will be the slightly better player eventually.

However, I'd love to have either on my team, and there's something to be said for Sizemore already proving himself at the major league level.

by tbac on Mar 14, 2006 3:37 AM EST reply actions

Sizemore

Had better OBP in the minors than Young.
He already hits a better average in the majors than Young has ever hit in the minors.
You skipped strikeouts. This is a huge advantage with Young averaging a strikeout per game. This is huge.

by pedrophile on Mar 14, 2006 8:39 AM EST up reply actions

Hmm.

Quite possibly they're wrong about the OBP and BA being to Young's advantage, so hard to project, but... the Ks are really a minor thing, not a huge advantage. I'd rather have someone who Ks a lot if they hit for an extra 10 HRs a year. Witness Adam Dunn, I don't even care if he hits .250 so long as he's got a .380-.400 OBP and 40 Hrs a year.

Not that I'm saying Young will hit like Dunn.

What's more, doesn't Grady K a lot?

by abbreviatedman on Mar 14, 2006 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

Sizemore

Sizemore had 132 Ks in a full season in the majors. Previously he had 72 and 73 Ks in AAA and AA. It is to be expected the numbers spiked in the early going in the pros.

Young Ks 1 per game. This would be 150 in a normal season. And if his numbers also spike in the majors we are looking at 200 ks +.

Russell Branyal also had contact issues and also had good BB ratios to go with power. The problem is when his Ks did spike the team did not have the patience to play him regularly. This is a serious issue with high Ks guys.

Young stands a chance of running himself out of baseball if he does have these problems. The only benefit is Arizona should stink this year.

I don't think batting average will even be close. The one time Sizemore repeated (and was age neutral that year) he had an excellent BA.

by pedrophile on Mar 14, 2006 9:14 PM EST up reply actions

lol

"Young stands a chance of running himself out of baseball if he does have these problems. The only benefit is Arizona should stink this year."

These are about the dumbest two sentences in a row you'll see in this neck of the woods.

by levski on Mar 14, 2006 9:36 PM EST up reply actions

ok

einstein.

He strikes out for a pace of 162 in a full season. It is normal for a player in their first exposure to the majors to struggle. This would mean 200ks or so. Most teams don't have the patience for players like this and they bounce back and forth hurting their development.

Adam Dunn played regularly - because he hit homers right away.

I am saying the fact that Arizona will be a poor team and is rebuilding they will have more patience with him than Chicago would have.

These are legitimate reasons or concerns. You don't have to agree with me. But saying my comments are stupid is low.

by pedrophile on Mar 15, 2006 8:43 AM EST up reply actions

einstein?

first, I apologize for my tone.

second, your projections for young's K's are... well, akin to something you'd find in a toilet bowl. you are assuming that a) young would fail to make any adjustments as he climbs up; b) his k rate will deteriorate; and c) he won't be able to compensate with good batting average and walks for his Ks.

i think all of those assumptions are pretty likely to go bust. young skipped a level (from low A to AA), went to a tough league as one of the youngest hiters there, and actually improved on his BB/K ratio. furthermore, if you look at his progression in 2005, which I have, you'll see that his pitch recognition and bb/k rate dramatically improved as the season progressed. that's a clear sign that he can make adjustments and improve on his k rate as he mature.

young is an excellent prospect, plays a premium position, and will have several 30-30 seasons before it's all said and done. he won't "bounce back and forth hurting his development".

and saying that the dbacks will stink (and they won't stink) to justify why young would succeed is stupid. sorry, but it is. young would succeed on ANY team, even on the mighty mets. of course, on the mets, he would've been traded for a middle reliever by now, but that's a different story. and yes, young would've suceeded in chicago as well. he is that talented.

by levski on Mar 15, 2006 9:43 PM EST up reply actions

hilarious

"of course, on the mets, he would've been traded for a middle reliever by now"

I was thinking he was traded by NYM because he wasn't Latin?

That was funny levski!

by So Cal Bob on Mar 16, 2006 3:41 PM EST up reply actions

adam dunn! oh yeah? russell branyan!

let's not get carried away. these players are individuals. note that branyan K'd significantly more than 1 per game in the minors. (93 in 64 G in AAA in 2000, 187 in 109 G in 1999.) dunn K'd a little bit less than one per game, sizemore significantly less, young's been running a little bit more.

note also that young jumped from low-A to AA and his K rate actually declined, so predicting an inevitable large K spike as he rises further may be premature. it looks like his contact skills may yet be improving.

by wily mo on Mar 14, 2006 9:44 PM EST up reply actions

young's injury

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/special3/articles/0314dbnotes0314.html

Fwiw, Young is close to resuming baseball activities. I predict that he'll have a huge season in 2006, now that he's out of the Southern League and that cavernous park that is the home for CHA's AA team. The kid will be a top 5 prospect on every single list going into 2007, if he's still with a rookie status...

by levski on Mar 14, 2006 10:31 AM EST reply actions