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Prospect Retro: Eric Davis


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Prospect Retro: Eric Davis

Per reader request, a prospect Retro for Eric Davis.

Some of you young'uns won't remember Eric Davis early in his career, but back in the ancient past of the 1980s, he was the ultimate tools player.

The Cincinnati Reds drafted Davis in the eighth round in 1980, out of Fremont High School in Los Angeles. A tremendous athlete, Davis was a childhood friend of Darryl Strawberry, the first pick in the draft that year. Davis was well-known as a basketball player as an amateur. Davis had first-round tools, but was rather raw when drafted, keeping him out of the earliest rounds. Assigned to Eugene in the Northwest League right out of high school, he hit just .219 in 33 games with a poor .274 SLG, though he did manage to steal 10 bases. He also drew 14 walks in 88 plate appearances, a solid ratio. At this point he would have rated as a Grade C prospect, mostly on the basis of his athleticism and youth. Originally a shortstop, he played poorly defensively and moved to the outfield the following season.

Davis returned to Eugene in 1981 and tore the cover off the ball, hitting .322 with a .561 SLG, hitting 11 homers in 214 at-bats, and stealing 40 bases. He also posted an excellent 57/59 BB/K ratio. Yes, he was repeating the league. But he was still just 19, and his combination of speed, patience, and developing power got him noticed. Now an outfielder, he took to center field easily and quickly emerged as a top-flight defender, with plus range and a good arm. He'd rate a Grade B or perhaps B+ prospect given his progress.

Moved up to Cedar Rapids in the Midwest League for 1982, Davis leveled out a bit, hitting .276 with a .449 SLG, with 15 homers, 51 walks, 103 strikeouts in 434 at-bats. He also stole 53 bases, and continued to demonstrate good outfield defense. Again, he would be something like a B+ prospect. Could he maintain his plate discipline at higher levels?

Davis moved up to Double-A in 1983, adjusting easily to the level, hitting .290 with a .495 SLG and 39 steals in just 89 games for Waterbury in the Eastern League. He drew 65 walks against 75 strikeouts. Promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis, he continued to hit with a .299 mark and a .623 SLG, though his strikeout rate increased to over once per game and his walk rate dropped. Still, given his age he did just fine. At this point, he was considered one of the top prospects in baseball. Retrospectively, he'd rate as a Grade A or A- prospect and likely one of the top five or ten hitting prospects in the game.

Davis split 1984 between Triple-A Wichita (hitting .314 with a .629 SLG and 27 steals in just 52 games) and the majors, where he hit just .224/.320/.466 with 10 steals for the Reds. He was overmatched at times in the Show, though he was certainly exciting to watch due to his speed, power, and outfield defense. 1985 was another split season between Triple-A and the majors, but he emerged as a full time outfielder with the Reds in 1986, hitting .277/.378/.523 with 27 homers and 80 steals.

Younger fans likely remember the aging Davis from the late 1990s. But when he was young, he was possibly the most exciting player in baseball. . .blazing fast, lanky, lots of power in his bat. He'd take a walk. He also got hurt a lot, never playing more than 135 games in a full season. He was constantly hampered with muscle pulls and strains, knee problems, fractures, bruises, sprains, bone chips, etc. Look at that picture I posted of Davis, circa 1987. See any body fat on him? Perhaps 10 pounds of fat would have given him a bit extra padding. That wouldn't have helped the colon cancer that almost ended his career (and his life) in 1997, but he fought his way back.

Power, speed, patience, defense. . .Davis had it all, a complete Seven Skill player. He had Hall of Fame talent, though his inability to stay healthy likely inhibited his performance and certainly prevented him from racking up enough counting numbers to get in. If Davis had played his prime during the high-octane late 1990s, he would have put up monstrous numbers.

Comparable Players to Eric Davis

Kirk Gibson
Larry Doby
Darryl Strawberry
Ray Lankford

Active comps include Andruw Jones and Reggie Sanders.

0 recs  |  Comment 42 comments

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the new davis?
I have read some prospect reports of AZ's Chris Young that compare him to Eric Davis (I can think of Dayn Perry's prospect columns right now). Do others agree? Young will never steal 80 bases (no one will, at least for a while), but Young does have the great power-speed combo that Davis had. I only hope Young can stay healthy...

by levski on Mar 11, 2006 2:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

dayn perry's article
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5395268

on Chris Young, AZ (#3 on Perry's 100 list)

"In terms of upside, Young could be a healthy Eric Davis. Yeah, he's that promising."

by levski on Mar 11, 2006 3:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well
Davis struck out a whole lot less in the minors, and stole more bases. I haven't seen Young play, but nothing I have read puts him in the class of speed as Davis. Hopefully, he won't have Davis' injury problems.

I think the Cameron comp seems like the best.

by irwin on Mar 11, 2006 3:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

pecota
fwiw, pecota loves chris young. i think he did very well skipping a level, and he actually improved his plate discipline. i haven't seen young play yet, but i have read that he is really realy fast. not eric davis fast (or justin upton fast?) but very fast nonetheless.

the K numbers aren't really that worrisome, imo, as young played in a really tough league for hitters. a season in the PCL is all the doctor prescribed for him. needless to say, i think young's batting average in the majors will be a lot higher than cameron's.

by levski on Mar 11, 2006 3:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

personally
I worry about k's in the minors a lot, i see it as a big, huge red flag.

by irwin on Mar 11, 2006 4:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well, sure
but isn't k/bb ratio a more telling indicator than k's alone?

by levski on Mar 11, 2006 4:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm
Let me think...

If a player is going to K a lot, sure, I would rather see some walks too. But I would feel more confident in a player's chances with fewer k's. I think it goes more to the bust factor than the upside factor.  I'd be curious to see the k rates of MLB all-stars when they were in the minors.

As far a Young, his k rate so high that it bugs me a lot.

by irwin on Mar 11, 2006 6:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

K's
I think strikeouts for hitters are overrated as a negative indicator.  If the hitter has a decent OBP, what difference does it make how he makes the outs?  Two examples I can think of from at the major league level are Edgardo Alfonzo and AJ Piezynski who both rarely strike out. They were both negatives in the lineup when they were with the Giants.  AJ, in particular, would have been better off striking out a little more often instead of hitting into DP's.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 11, 2006 8:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

In the majors, yes
But when looking at minor leaguers, it think it's becomes an important factor.

by irwin on Mar 12, 2006 6:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

left unsaid
it matters a lot WHY the player is striking out so much.

by irwin on Mar 11, 2006 6:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

speaking of upton ...
maybe he's a good comp for davis ... drafted out of high school as a shortstop ... had to move the outfield b/c he couldn't hack it at short.

by chris p on Mar 12, 2006 1:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

lol, chris
you just had to say that, didn't you? :)

fwiw, the 2006 BA book mentions that some scouts have made comparisons between Chris Young and Eric Davis as well, mostly because of the excellent speed-power combo.

by levski on Mar 12, 2006 5:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

just doing my part ...
everybody's soooooo in love with the d-backs prospects i felt like i needed to do some embrunting. you know how it goes.

by chris p on Mar 12, 2006 10:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

greatest outfield that never was
remember the year the dodgers signed strawberry davis and butler to be one of the greatest outfields of all time. too bad those guys never played together in their prime. would have been amazing to watch.

by taggartd on Mar 11, 2006 3:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

LA can only hope
...that they didn't sign the greatest infield that will never be, in 2006...

:)

by levski on Mar 11, 2006 3:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He did all of this....
...despite that funky grip on the bat. He lined up the wrong knuckles.

by rwperu34 on Mar 11, 2006 3:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

eric
In his first full season (1986) he stole 80 bases and hit 27 home runs. At the age of 24.

His second season was unbelievable. 37 home runs. 50 stolen bases. .992 OPS

Things I'll always remember about Eric Davis:

  1. He was one of the best base stealers of all time--never seemed to get caught
  2. He was the first guy I remember consistently going over the wall to steal a home run. And those were some high walls at Riverfront Stadium.
  3. The 1990 World Series. The big, bad A's versus the Little Red Machine. Intimidating Dave Stewart on the mound in game one, and Davis sets the tone for the butt-kick of a series by mashing a two-run shot over the CF wall in the very first inning. Then, in the last game of the four-game sweep, Davis tears his kidney or spleen or something making a diving catch.
Davis was a unique talent.

by greg456 on Mar 11, 2006 3:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

80 stolen bases
what is even more amazing is that he stole 80 and only got caught 11 times!  the break even point is like 75%, and he was close to 90%!

by nwroyal on Mar 11, 2006 10:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I might be wrong
but think Davis' shot was a granny and it went over the camera booth.

by HuskerBob on Mar 13, 2006 1:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

the diving catch in game 4
didn't change schott's opinion of him one bit; she wouldn't even pay for him to make it home after that.

anyhow, sean lahman on eric davis...

http://www.baseball1.com/lahman/index.php?storyid=43

by levski on Mar 11, 2006 3:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Davis was a special talent...
You would have to bring up Marge Schott, wouldn't you?
Davis was a LOT of fun to watch, whether it was batting or in the field -  he did everything full out and without a doubt one of my favourite Reds...
"Why do we need so many scouts? All they do is sit around and watch games" Marge Schott, the bane of my existence...

by BigRedMachine on Mar 13, 2006 11:59 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Natsfan2005
In a diary about Rickie Weeks wrote that his comp/upside for Weeks was Eric Davis.

From what i just read, that's an outstanding comp. And the numbers/similarities...

Do you find Davis as a good comp for Weeks?

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad on Mar 11, 2006 4:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

weeks
I don't think Weeks will steal 80 bases, but their overall package of skills and tools is similar.

by John Sickels on Mar 11, 2006 4:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

League context
One thing I'd like to point out is that when Davis stole 80 bases, he was second in his league and third in the majors (Coleman 107, Henderson 87). Tim Raines was right behind him with 70. I think a better way to look at this would be, is Richie Weeks capable of finishing in the top 5 in MLB in steals? That would probably take about 40-50 in most years.

This brings up another potential topic. How much will the amphetamine ban reduce run production? Will that reduction bring about more use of the one run strategies (basestealing, hitting and running, sacrafice bunting)? Could we be on the verge of a new wave of basestealing prowess?

by rwperu34 on Mar 11, 2006 11:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

what were his career numbers?
how did his career finish?
Free Kevin Youkilis!!!

by forage on Mar 11, 2006 4:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Career Numbers
.269/.359/.482 with 282 HR's.  The most amazing stat is 349 SB's with only 66 CS!!  Davis compiled 5321 AB's in his career.  Most HOF careers accumulate around 10K AB's.  Clearly injuries played were a huge factor here.  Projected to 10K AB's, he might have beat Bonds to 500 HR's + 500 SB's.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 11, 2006 5:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Top ranked player in 1987
I played a lot of Earl Weaver's Baseball in the late 80's, and 1987 was the best year to play due to the offensive explosion.  Once you put in all the players numbers (which we did, including split stats), Eric Davis was the #1 ranked player.  37 HR, 50 SB.  Great season, even if it was cut a little short due to injuries.

by sabernar on Mar 11, 2006 5:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

1987
Eric Davis finished 8th in the NL MVP balloting after hitting .293/.401/.593 with 37 HR and 50 SB!  He was such on a tear that year he hit 3 grand slams in the month of May setting a major league record.    

John

Thanks for writing this piece on Eric Davis after I requested it.  

by sdbaseballfan on Mar 11, 2006 11:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks
for requesting ED.. my all time favorite Red.. he was certainly fun to watch.

by cincyinco on Mar 13, 2006 3:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

earl....
oh those were the days.

I never understood why he (err  the computer) kept pinch hitting willie stagerll for babe ruth.

by goggles pisano on Mar 12, 2006 3:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Reds prospects
"Active comps include Andruw Jones and Reggie Sanders."

Wow.  I remember when Reggie Sanders was a prospect with the Reds.  People called him the next Eric Davis, which was of course unfair to the kid...but what do you know, they were right!

by DevilsAdvocate on Mar 11, 2006 5:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

i get your point
...but Reggie Sanders couldn't hold Eric Davis's jock.

by greg456 on Mar 11, 2006 6:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

can't blame Sanders for that...
...I wouldn't want to hold Eric Davis' jock either.

by DevilsAdvocate on Mar 12, 2006 12:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

1991 Spring Training
Reggie Sanders approached Eric Davis in the outfield and said, "people are telling me I am going to be the next you".

by sdbaseballfan on Mar 11, 2006 11:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

playoffs
Davis was at his best in the playoffs.

I can't get the 1995 Reds-Braves series out of my head whenever I think about Reggie Sanders. He was totally inept.

And, of course, Sanders never approached Davis's status during the regular season either.

by greg456 on Mar 12, 2006 12:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but...
... they both did get hurt a lot!
and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Mar 12, 2006 1:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ayuh
Their skillsets were comparable, their skill levels were maybe not as close, but their injury histories are probably the biggest reason that Sanders shows up as a comp.

by DevilsAdvocate on Mar 12, 2006 1:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Memories are made of moments, not statistics
ED was at his best in the playoffs that one time with the Reds, who finished second a lot while Davis was with them but made the playoffs just once.

And according to Retrosheet...except for that 1st inning home run that set the Reds on their way to their 1990 World Series sweep, Davis was not so hot a hitter in the playoffs.  After his 1990 series-opening homer, he was 3-13 with 3 singles and no walks.  For his career, which included the '90 LCS and shorter playoff appearances with Baltimore '97 and St. Louis '00, he hit just .192/.222/.301 in 73 at-bats, with 2 walks, 21 strikeouts, and 0-2 on the basepaths.

Sanders has had more opportunities to redeem himself since the 1995 LCS debacle (against Atlanta's pitching staff in their prime, he had 2 singles in 16 AB, 2 walks, 10 K).  He actually did very well during Arizona's '01 playoff run.  Though he has continued to strike out at an obscene rate in the postseason: total 191 AB, 69 K's.

by DevilsAdvocate on Mar 12, 2006 1:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you can't possibly...
...use his baltimore and st. louis stats. that wasn't even close to the same eric davis. THAT was more like reggie sanders, actually.

by greg456 on Mar 12, 2006 11:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Accepted
A career is a career, but coming back from life-threatening cancer certainly might be an extenuating circumstance...even though he did hit .300 as a part-time player in each of those regular seasons for St. Louis and Baltimore.

However, that only leaves one season with playoff experience.  For the Reds in 1990, Davis was .216/.237/.324 in 37 at-bats, with 9 K.  Of course, he did play good defense too, including the play that put him in the hospital with a kidney laceration.

I just thought it was interesting how, despite the overall track record in the post-season, we all remember him for that single swing of the bat on the big stage, and because he was the nominal star slugger for a cinderella team that won it all.

by DevilsAdvocate on Mar 13, 2006 9:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Worst Hitch
in the history of baseball.  He always had a window up that you could get it by him, problem was most pitchers didn't have the stuff to get there.  Injuries aside, I always saw Davis as a high ceiling, quick dropoff guy.  Once his hand speed curtailed pitchers were able to get to his weakness.

That being said, I don't think without the injuries, Davis would have been a HOFer.  Extremely talented no doubt, but his peak was going to be too short under any scenario.

by HuskerBob on Mar 13, 2006 2:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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