Top Keeper SP in Fantasy Baseball

It depends

It really depends on the scoring system. I'm in several types of league. ONe of them is a points league, and innings pitched happen to matter quite a bit. As a result, guys like Carpenter and Halladay usually score the most points. So I would go with Roy Halladay in that case.

I voted for Peavy because of the ballpark, his age, his ridiculous K/BB ratio, the good defense behind him, an up and coming team, etc etc. But really, I think he and Santana are completely even.

Note: Santana is a better pitcher, but for fantasy purposes, the stats don't care if you're in the AL Central or in the NL West with the worst offenses you can find and an easy ballpark. Please don't confuse my fantasy opinion with my real baseball opinion.

by Jgaztambide on Mar 1, 2006 10:52 AM EST 0 recs

I'd actually take

Harden.

For fantasy purposes, he's gotta be in the running. He's 24. He's on an A's team that should be contending until 2010+, and they have a pretty good offense. He's also got some of the best stuff in the game, with great K/9, H/9, WHIP, and ERA. He should be a perennial Cy Young candidate. The other two i would be debating about is Santana and Hernandez. Santana is the best pitcher in the game and will give you the best peripherals. But the Twins cant buy him wins. Hernandez plays for a shitty team, and he's very very young, which means an injury could still be on the horizon (though Harden and Santana also have injury history).

I'm surprised Hardens not here though.

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad on Mar 1, 2006 11:14 AM EST 0 recs

Where

do A's fans get the glasses that are so much more tinted than every other fans of other teams glasses?

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Mar 1, 2006 2:15 PM EST up 0 recs

Kool-Aid

Was invented in Oakland, CA.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Mar 1, 2006 3:15 PM EST up 0 recs

I know that wasn't literal...

but I want to mention that Kool-Aid was in fact invented in my homestate of Nebraska, in Hastings.

But seriously, I think Harden deserves to be on this list. Look at what he's managed to do over the past couple years, and his progress. He's still just 24. He's had some injuries, but nothing that seems chronic. It's too early to label him injury-prone.

by Ryan Armbrust on Mar 1, 2006 8:29 PM EST up 0 recs

C'mon

I don't think that Harden is a ridiculous suggestion. The guy is young and has a good of stuff as anybody. Now personally, I'd take either FHer, or Santana, but Ohad's not exactly crazy with his suggestion.

by RayRay on Mar 1, 2006 3:36 PM EST up 0 recs

Yeah it is

For 2006, Harden projects out as the 24th best starting pitcher for my points-based league, just ahead of Doug Davis. So it's premature to include him in this list. He's good, but he's not top of the game yet.

by FunWithHeadlines on Mar 1, 2006 3:47 PM EST up 0 recs

Even if that's true

I don't think the question is, "which pitcher would you like to have in FunWithHeadlines' points-based league, next year?" So I don't see how that's relevant. I think many people, and not just A's fans, would agree that Harden is one of the top young pitchers in baseball. Remember, he was being hyped by people as a potential Cy Young candidate last year (if I remember correctly by Peter Gammons, for what that's worth). He has more long term value than probably 15 or 16 of the guys projected ahead of him in your league for next year.

by RayRay on Mar 1, 2006 3:55 PM EST up 0 recs

Understood

Understood, but my point was that he hasn't done it yet, whereas the other guys on the list have. Even for 2006, projections don't show him on that level. Maybe he'll keep improving, and one day he'll be on that level. Just not yet.

by FunWithHeadlines on Mar 2, 2006 4:13 PM EST up 0 recs

Fair enough

I agree that it's not a sure thing that Harden will be an elite pitcher this year. Though I think the only real concern for this year is health. I just believe that Harden projects as well as any pitcher in baseball. He's got as good of stuff as anybody, and seems to have a good head on his shoulders as well. Now if he could just keep those shoulders (as well as obliques) healthy . . .

by RayRay on Mar 2, 2006 5:31 PM EST up 0 recs

"Projects"

There's the "keyword"

by The Rocc on Mar 1, 2006 7:24 PM EST up 0 recs

The other key word is . . .

keeper.

by RayRay on Mar 1, 2006 7:35 PM EST up 0 recs

Not ridiculous

but I don't think he belongs here...yet. I agree he's a great pitcher with a bright future. But c'mon, if ohad wasn't an A's fan, do your really think he would have made that post? I'm a huge Cub fan and my 1st answer was Prior. Once I adjusted for my fan bias, I went with a different pitcher.

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Mar 1, 2006 5:09 PM EST up 0 recs

Harden

From what I saw of Harden last year, he's just filthy. He's a tremendous pitcher.

He might not be everybody's #1, but I love this guy and would have him in top 3 without a doubt.

For the record, I'd go Santana in the top slot with Harden and Oswalt being neck and neck. As good as the latter two are, it's not even a close race. Santana should be a great pitcher for a long, long time - his excellent control and amazing change mean that he should age well, not really a problem as he's only really entering the traditional best years for pitchers now.

by mrkupe on Mar 1, 2006 3:44 PM EST up 0 recs

Harden

Harden certainly deserves a spot in this poll. I'd probably rank Harden the 3rd or 4th best pitcher and wouldn't be surprised if he ended up being the best this year and next 5 or so (as a Non-Mariners fan, though, I'm hoping Felix does better).

by ultxmxpx on Mar 1, 2006 4:14 PM EST up 0 recs

Oh yeah!

Wow, lots of Kool Aid drinkers in here.
harden is a very good young pitcher, but Santana is unquestionably better (oh and RayRay, the question IS in regards to fantasy leagues, so you might want to bear that context in mind after ripping FWH up there). As is Oswalt and much as I think he's overhyped I'd put money on Felix as well. I'd take Willis, Peavy, Halladay and Zambrano too. Kazmir has more talent, IMO, but plays in a beast of a division for a weak/young team so won't put up the roto numbers.
haredn is almost certainly top 10, but he's not top 3 and defiitely not a real candidate for #1. if you want to say you prefer him because he's a great pitcher AND pitches for oakland, that's fine, that's a valid reason, but be up front about it.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Mar 1, 2006 4:50 PM EST up 0 recs

I understand that it's a fantasy league question

but, it's a keeper league question. So my point was that it's not really all that important where the league rates a guy for next year, but instead what's important is where the pitcher would project over the next handful of years. I think it's pretty clear that even if Harden's right below Doug Davis, for next year (which is pretty questionable), he surely is a better keeper option. For the record, I'd rate these guys as follows, for a keeper league: FHer, Santana, Peavy, Harden, Oswalt, Willis, Zambrano, Sheets, Prior, and Halladay (Heck, I'd even throw in Matt Cain in the middle somewhere).

by RayRay on Mar 1, 2006 4:55 PM EST up 0 recs

How in this or any world

Is Oswalt overhyped. He is the winningest pitcher of late. What makes you think he is going to slow down. He throws very few pitches per start, does not overexert his body by throwing as hard as he can ever pitch, and has 5 secondary pitches. 4 of which are plus compared to the league. Just so you know I am refering to Fastball, 2-seam+,curve+,slider+,change+,and a splitter he worked in toward the end of the year. The fact that he is so confident that he will create a new pitch mid-season and work it in games shows how much he fears any lineup. Not much.

Johan is great, I wish he still pitched for the Stros. Oswalt will win more games every year though. That is fact.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Mar 1, 2006 5:23 PM EST up 0 recs

Third time I read it

You may have refered to felix. I am not sure, but I wanted to say that anyway. So if you weren't refering to the Osss then feel good that you enabled everyone to learn of his dominance.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Mar 1, 2006 5:27 PM EST up 0 recs

Oz

I love Oz, i was not referring to him as overhyped, if anything he's underappreciated.
I definitely think Felix is overhyped.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Mar 1, 2006 9:06 PM EST up 0 recs

No harm no foul

Thanks for clearing it up. Sometimes it is not worth debating over a guy like Felix because you know some people are going to think that he is the second coming and will defend him to the bitter end. I have not made a decision on him yet because I haven't been able to see him enough.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Mar 2, 2006 7:27 PM EST up 0 recs

Harden

I am with you on this one. I purposefully was looking for his name after reading the intro and was surprised to find it missing. I voted "Other" with Harden in mind.

Statistically and logically, Santana would be a better choice. I am just going with my gut feeling about Harden over Santana.

by Bill on Mar 2, 2006 5:39 PM EST up 0 recs

For me

For me, it's a three-man race between Santana, Peavy, and Felix. I'd be inclined to take Felix, and I think Peavy and Santana are tied for second. Santana is unquestionably the best pitcher in the MLB, but the fact that he's in the AL tends to hurt him a little bit.

One other thing on Santana. He's going to start throwing competitively earlier this year than before with the WBC. For most pitchers, this might be a bad thing, but since Santana seems to have an early-season funk thing, this might get him starting to dominate earlier in the year this year. This could be his best season yet (sub-two ERA).

by limozeen on Mar 1, 2006 11:45 AM EST 0 recs

Santana

I think you've got to stick with him right now, although Felix is definitely tempting. Santana's the best in the game, young, and is probably past the "injury nexus" for a pitcher. Felix might turn out to be better, but he's got to stay healthy to do it, and there is at least a decent chance he won't.

One pitcher forgotten: Josh Beckett. Two years ago, no one would have believed that.

by jc3 on Mar 1, 2006 1:19 PM EST 0 recs

I disagree

Beckett shouldn't make that list until he has put up consistant numbers in a full season. When has he pitched at least 200 innings?? He may have tremendous potential, but hasn't had a season where he has reached that level. He did well in the playoffs in 2003, but that isn't a full season. The guys on that list are proven. Until Beckett pitches at least 200 innings in one season with 17-20 wins, in the AL East of all places, then he could make that list.

by marchmadness on Mar 1, 2006 1:59 PM EST up 0 recs

Felix

It blows my mind that people would rather have Felix over Peavy, Oswalt, Johan or Dontrelle. The kid had 12 very, very, very good starts at age 19. But you'd rather take a 19 year old over perennial All-Stars that are in contention for the Cy Young every year? I just don't get it.

BTW, I think Felix is gonna be really good. But if you can get a guy who has the potential to be really good or any of 5 guys that are proven aces, I'd take the guy that's proven.

For another kid that was good at a young age see Wright, Jaret. If the rumor was true that the Tribe could've traded Wright for Pedro, you know why you take the proven ace for the potentially excellent kid.

by lenred on Mar 1, 2006 1:48 PM EST 0 recs

Part of it

is projection as this is a keeper league. There has not been a pitcher in last 25-30 years that has put up the numbers/periferals that Felix has. When you couple the hard numbers with the things scouts and opposing batters/managers are saying about him, he's goddamn tempting to take. A year from now he may very well be in a class by himself, at the very least I think he'll be at least close enough to Peavey/Santana to justify the gamble.

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Mar 1, 2006 5:20 PM EST up 0 recs

Doesn't anyone remember Gooden?

He was amazing for the first couple years, and then was average for the rest of his career. Sure, he had drug problems, but it's hard to say just how much that affected his pitching.

I see Felix as someone who could go that route, of burning out his potential early on. He could also become the last player to win 300 games in this age of 5 man rotations. It's too early to tell. We have only 200 innings of minor league data, half of which were in single A ball, and 80 innings of major league ball. Half of those innings of major league pitching were against such mormant offenses as Detroit, Kansas City, Baltimore and Minnesota. Those represent 4 of the bottom 5 offenses in the AL last year. The only one of those bottom five he didn't face was his own team, the Mariners.

This isn't to say that Felix isn't a great player. I think too many people are drinking too much koolaid on him. He doesn't have much of a track record, and his peripherals aren't exceptional to the point where he is head and shoulders above a ton of other pitchers.

Here's something to think on. Minor league totals for some players:

WHIP K/9 H/9
1.18 10.79 6.49 Rich Harden
1.18 10.84 7.58 Felix Hernandez
1.20 11.81 6.52 Dwight Gooden
0.99 7.20 7.60 Zach Greinke
1.12 11.15 6.42 Scott Kazmir
1.29 10.72 7.51 Chad Harville
1.41 11.65 7.62 Mike Neu
1.21 10.17 7.01 Ryan Wagner
1.27 9.15 6.70 Joe Valentine
1.15 9.14 7.36 Ervin Santana
1.36 9.41 8.70 Johan Santana
1.01 14.42 6.22 Mark Prior
0.93 7.38 6.69 Dontrelle Willis
1.17 9.11 8.05 Roy Oswalt

As you can see, Felix is in the middle of a pack of stars and washouts. It's too early to say anything yet. Sure, he had a good 12 games, but in 2004, Jeremy Reed hit .397 over 18 games/58 at bats. I'm going to wait on crowning Felix until he can put up a couple good seasons.

I think he may be a good bet in a keeper league, but I'd take a slightly more proven player over him, especially since he's been so overhyped it'd be impossible to live up to expectations unless he goes all 1968 Bob Gibson on everyone.

by Ryan Armbrust on Mar 1, 2006 9:12 PM EST up 0 recs

Not even CLOSE

to being the complete picture. How many of those pitchers put those numbers up within 4 years of how young Felix was relative to his league? When those guys were 19 most of them weren't even drafted/signed with a major league club, let alone leaving a wake of carnage. Then there are some park factors to consider, which in many cases plays a bigger role than it does in the majors. Then there is the whole "best pitcher of a generation" type comments scouts rave about Felix with. Felix already has one of the best fastballs in the league and he's only 19. NINETEEN!!! I'm willing to bet he's closer to Bob Gibson than he is over-hyped at this point. The hype is now more like well deserved attention.

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Mar 1, 2006 10:43 PM EST up 0 recs

a little exaggeration

I like Felix more than most, and he's on a very fast track...but let's go easy on the hyperbole.

Gooden debuted with 217 dominant IP at 19
Felix debuted with 84 dominant IP at 19
Kazmir debuted with 33 pretty bad IP at 20
Grienke debuted with 145 passable IP at 20
Harden debuted with 74 passable IP at 21
Johan Santana debuted with 86 awful IP @ 21
Dontrelle debuted with 160 very good IP at 21
Prior debuted with 116 very good IP at 21

I'll leave Johan out. (it took him & the Twins awhile to figure things out)

Oswalt didn't debut until he was 23, but he's been dominant from the beginning.

All the others who didn't pitch a full year in their debuts (just as Felix didn't) followed that up with good, solid, full years the following year. Hopefully Felix will pitch a good, solid, full year this year. It will, however be a first full year at the tender age of 20. He's ahead of the curve, but not 4 years ahead of the curve. Sit back and enjoy it.

by fredo on Mar 2, 2006 1:09 AM EST up 0 recs

4 years

is about right with a few exceptions. 3 years would have probably been a a better number to use, but my point is valid none the less. The numbers listed above are career minor legue numbers. Felix started putting up his minor league numbers right after he turned 17 - an age that puts the others in their junior year in HS. He was only a few months past his 18th birthday when he made his mlb debut, and there was talk of him breaking camp with the M's last year when he was still 18.

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Mar 2, 2006 7:32 AM EST up 0 recs

should read

"few months past his 19th birthday"

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Mar 2, 2006 7:33 AM EST up 0 recs

all the numbers I listed are MLB debuts

3 years is still just boasting. Doc Gooden pitched a full dominant year at 19 in the bigs (and a crazy good year at 20 for that matter). I think you've picked a good prospect to hype, but even in the other listed pitchers cases it's probably safer to say he's a year ahead, and in certain cases "maybe" 2 years.

So far, we have seen a tease of something great. As I stated in the original reply, IF Felix pitches a good full year this year it will be his first full year and it'll have been at the age of 20. It's very impressive, but again, it's not 4 years or even 3.

by fredo on Mar 2, 2006 1:23 PM EST up 0 recs

Numbers back me up

No one has had a debut in the last 35 years as good as Felix. NOBODY. Show me any of those pitchers doing what Felix did in 80+ IP within 4 years of age 19. I'll save you the trouble, read this 1st:

http://shortporch.blogspot.com/2005/08/king-felix-best-pitcher-in-last-35.html

Only one comparable is Gooden, and you won't be seeing him on anybodys fantasy roster. Like I said earlier, you can look at the numbers in a vacuum all you want. Most of his pitches/skills from a scouts perspective are better than what most on that list above can currently boast... and Felix will get better. I understand he's more of a gamble, but the upside outweighs the risk IMO.

If you were ask all of the MLB GM's if they could pluck any pitcher off of any roster, I'm willing to bet most of them would give serious consideration to Felix, with many deciding to go with him. Say he has top prove it all you want until you're impressed enough with him, by that time the ship will have sailed.

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Mar 2, 2006 1:41 PM EST up 0 recs

Not trying to pick a fight here

That's a nicely written, seemingly well researched blog. I agree wholeheartedly with most all of your feelings on King Felix. I just think it's foolish to say that noone has come close to anything he's done. He may be one of the rare "once in a generation" pitchers. I fully agree that you're hard pressed to find any true comps because he had such a stunning debut....BUT

You throw out 35 years almost as easily as your 4 year boast from earlier.

1) Putting your feelings and hopes for this year aside, Goodens debut was BETTER largely because he ACTUALLY pitched a full season of equally effective innings at the same age.

Baseball reference extends Felix' impressive debut out to what it would have been if it had been a full season. Here are the results.

Felix - 238 IP, 172 H, 65 BB, 218 K, 2.67 ERA
Gooden - 218 IP, 161 H, 73 BB, 276 K, 2.60 ERA

Even if we were all convinced that Felix really pitched a full season, he still falls short of Goodens ACTUAL full season.

2) I'm not trying to say that any of the other guys did the same thing as Felix. He had an unbelievable debut, but by ANY account, pitched for less than half a season. It's very, very impressive. I'm not arguing that.

Now...IF ALL GOES ACCORDING TO PLAN, Felix' first full year (at 20) WHICH HAS YET TO HAPPEN.. is simply a year ahead of what Dontrelle Willis did at 21. I'm not trying to be a smart aleck, I'm just trying to figure out why you would keep saying NOONE is comparable and then say Gooden doesn't count because he's not on anyones fantasy roster. Willis had a very impressive full season debut at 21.

Hardens first full year was at 22, Priors first full year was at 22. I still don't know of any math that takes 20 from 22 and comes up with 3. This is ALL presuming that Felix WILL, WITHOUT A DOUBT turn in a superstar year this year. I sure hope he does, the early returns are amazing, but once again. He's pitched a (very impressive) half a year. Let's hope for the best, but go easy on the hype.

by fredo on Mar 2, 2006 4:54 PM EST up 0 recs

Well

we'll just have to agree to disagree somewhat. I've already conceded Goodens place, so I'm not going to harp on that. The point of this thread as it began was best keeper out there right now, Gooden is long gone so he's really insigificant here.

Sure, those guys had nice debuts, and yes I know 21 or 22 is not 4 years more than 19. I also know it's not the complete crux of what I'm trying to say. You listed all of those guys' age and put things such as "dominant" next to them to sum up their debut season. Well if you put the actual numbers next to their names including most of what was on that link I posted, those pitchers have yet to put up equal numbers Felix did in 84 IP last year. All of those pitchers with the exception of Kazmir are now at least 4 years older than Felix. That is where I'm deriving my 4 years figure. It is a small sample size, but he has done nothing yet to indicate he can't repeat with similar numbers. In fact, most of what he has done points towards him being likely to have that type of success in the future. K's and GB/FB rates are very repeatable skills and he excels at both. Hitters just don't get good contact on his pitches. That slider gets turned loose and he's very scary.

I agree that Peavey is a safer pick and you probably won't be too disappointed that you took him a few years from now. The promise of Felix overcomes that for me. At the least, I think he's proven that he's real and will be highly comparable to Peavey. It's the good possibility that he will be better than Peavey is what wins me over.

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Mar 2, 2006 5:32 PM EST up 0 recs

Agree to disagree

I enjoy reading your posts, Slurve. I just think that your original reply was a bit hasty.

It all boils down to this. Felix was 19 when he debuted, and pitched a helluva half a year. The other pitchers I used as comparisons were also listed at the age they debuted in the bigs. The fact that they are all older now is really not an issue in this discussion. I used their ages and stats in their debut years in comparison to Felix' age and stats in his debut. In some cases (Gooden/Dontrelle), their first full years were also their debut year. It will be fun to compare them to Felix' first full year...when it happens.

My reply was as an answer to your question requesting pitchers who'd put up similar numbers who were within 4 years of Felix' age. If you agree to the fact that Gooden is a valid comp, all I'm saying is that maybe the bold letters and all caps hyperbole is a bit much at best, and factually inaccurate at worst.

Just to clarify....the only 2 pitchers I used the word "Dominant" to describe their debuts were Felix and Gooden. I looked up all their debuts and chose my words accordingly. I believe the others are described accurately, but feel free to quibble with the descriptions.

by fredo on Mar 2, 2006 7:08 PM EST up 0 recs

Zito put up a pretty great 1st half season

The ERA innings pitched and strikeouts are all extremely close. Zito had 7 wins to Felix's 4 and Felix had a WHIP of 1 to Zito's 1.18. Zito was 3 years older, but for fantasy purposes you would probably take Zito's season over Felix's. Zito won the Cy Young 2 years later which could happen for Felix also, though the team he plays for will likely prevent him from getting the 23 wins Zito got that year.

by LizardKing51 on Mar 2, 2006 11:21 PM EST up 0 recs

Zito

also didn't put up the secondary numbers Felix did - GB rates, K:BB, and a few others. This is exactly what I'm talking about. The secondary numbers are great indicators of sustainablity. Zito has been declining, where what Felix did points to getting better. It's a keeper league, you want to try and predict future success. Many young pitchers have early good years and then decline rapidly. By the time Zito made his debut, he was 23. Felix's debut was better, and you guessed it, he was 4 years younger than Zito. Next.

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Mar 3, 2006 8:26 AM EST up 0 recs

oops

he was only 22 when he made his debut, even so, he didn't put up numbers as good as Felix when he turned 23... or any point after for that matter. Even his Cy Young year wasn't as good. Voters vote for wins, wich is the worst stat in baseball, just shows how bad the system has become.

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Mar 3, 2006 8:45 AM EST up 0 recs

I'll let the Lizard King back up the Zito comp

I really, really like Felix and all he brings to the table. I just get a little bored with the Sportscenter mentaliity that says that everyone HAS to be 4 years (jk) ahead of anyone else...ever; or HAS to the best thing to come around in 35 years (jk) in order to warrant special attention. I'm a huge prospect fan, or I wouldn't be reading Johns great site or posting replies to other great fans like Slurve.

I know this is neither here, nor there, but of the other pitchers listed who're eligible for fantasy rosters, Santana seems to be getting quite a lot of support as the most valuable keeper, and Halladay got a couple nods as well.

Santana debuted at 21 and didn't have his first full year starting until he was 25. Halladay came up early and pitched OK, but regressed; was sent back to A ball for half a year and came back better than before. Lets just give King Felix a little time.

by fredo on Mar 3, 2006 3:07 PM EST up 0 recs

Zito

He only pitched in 31 games in the minors. He certainly wasn't old or behind the curve with regards to promotion. I bet he played in less minor league games than almost anyone on the thread's list. His peripherals are very good, except his high walk rate and a decent strikout rate. Even still, he is annually among the top in baseball in H/9, OPS allowed, BA allowed, and innings pitched. Zito has only had one bad season in his career. Many hall of fame caliber pitchers had worse seasons amd many of them had them multiple times.

The question wasn't whether Zito is better than Felix. The question was has anyone recently put up a comparable half season debut. My point was to prove that others have appeared in the majors without struggling. Prior also started his career with a comparable half season to Felix. Hudson also pretty much dominated from the get go, though his fantasy numbers were a little behind Prior, Zito and Felix.

I definitely rank Felix as a top 5 SP keeper, but what he did last year is not unheard of. His age made it quite a bit more impressive than usual though.

by LizardKing51 on Mar 3, 2006 5:06 PM EST up 0 recs

Well...

Felix did strike out Dave Roberts, Mike Cameron and Brian Giles on just 13 pitches to start the spring. You guys believe what you want. No one has done what Felix did, 1, 2 or 3 years older or not. It was all laid out in that link I posted. Until you can show me with concrete stats to prove the contrary, I'm standing by all of my assertions. Felix's debut is unparalled by any current pitcher. Many pitchers have put up somewhat comparable debuts, but they weren't quite as good, nor did they have the outstanding indicators/secondary numbers that Felix did (which is where he really separates himself). Like I said, pitchers have good debuts all the time. Being able to figure out which ones have the skill to repeat/improve is where you're going to get the best keeper possible. Based on the secondary numbers, no one touches Felix. Look at the year Jorge Sosa had last year. All his secondary numbers point to the chances of him repeating those numbers as next to impossible.

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Mar 3, 2006 6:21 PM EST up 0 recs

Well...

Felix did strike out Dave Roberts, Mike Cameron and Brian Giles on just 13 pitches to start the spring. You guys believe what you want. No one has done what Felix did, 1, 2 or 3 years older or not. It was all laid out in that link I posted. Until you can show me with concrete stats to prove the contrary, I'm standing by all of my assertions. Felix's debut is unparalled by any current pitcher. Many pitchers have put up somewhat comparable debuts, but they weren't quite as good, nor did they have the outstanding indicators/secondary numbers that Felix did (which is where he really separates himself). Like I said, pitchers have good debuts all the time. Being able to figure out which ones have the skill to repeat/improve is where you're going to get the best keeper possible. Based on the secondary numbers, no one touches Felix. Look at the year Jorge Sosa had last year. All his secondary numbers point to the chances of him repeating those numbers as next to impossible.

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Mar 3, 2006 6:21 PM EST up 0 recs

His secondary stats

He put up substantially better WHIP, H/9 and WHIP than he did in most of the levels he played at in his career. That 1.00 WHIP doesn't look very repeatable short-term to me. He also plays on a worse team than the others mentioned in the thread, so his win totals might be significantly less than the others. My fantasy guess for Felix for next year is 195IP, 3.35 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 13 Wins.

I personally have Sheets as my SP keeper. His win totals will be going up soon. I would rather have Johan, but I don't think anyone else out there is a significant enough upgrade to want to trade for. I'd probably rather have Halladay, Peavy, or Harden than Sheets, but they're not enough of an upgrade to bother trading for them.

I think you only need one SP keeper. I am in a 12 team rotisserie sabermetric keeper league (OB and Slugging replaces HR and AVG)

These are my keepers:

Vlad
Teixeira
Dunn
Berkman
A. Ramirez
Hafner
Weeks
B. Roberts
Hermida
Sheets

I think I will have a very stacked team for a long time.

by LizardKing51 on Mar 3, 2006 6:39 PM EST up 0 recs

Ahead of the curve

in more ways than one.
it would be interesting to look at what the pre-existing injury concerns were with each of those players when they first came up.
Not to mention Seattle doesn't exactly have the best track record for keeping young players healthy.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Mar 2, 2006 9:25 AM EST up 0 recs

69 wins last 4 years

That is 17.25 wins per year over 4 years. Show me any one of those guys that matches that. And that is with a season he only made 19 starts or so for a weird groin injury.

Of course I am talking about the GREAT RoyO. No one will win more games in the next 5 years or the last 4 years. I predict a 10 year dominance of pitching by RoyO.

If you have ever seen him throw you know he is great. He's gonna give you a fastball on the corner, then on the other corner, then when you think something else is coming he pumps up his fastball from 93 to 97 and blows it by you.

Best fastball control with speed I have ever seen. It looks like he is shooting BB's not throwing a baseball.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Mar 1, 2006 2:02 PM EST 0 recs

Wins

Wins are the most useless stat for measuring a pitcher's effectiveness. You might as well credit him with the home runs his team hits for him.

That said, I think Oswalt is a great pitcher. You should just look at other stats, like WHIP or K/BB ratio to descibe his talent.

by Ryan Armbrust on Mar 1, 2006 9:14 PM EST up 0 recs

of course

I just realized that we're talking about a fantasy league here, so you hae to consider wins.

Oswalt is lucky to get as many as he does, though. Look at what hapened to Clemens last year.

by Ryan Armbrust on Mar 1, 2006 9:16 PM EST up 0 recs

I will cut you slack

Since this was one of your first posts. If you were saying that wins are useless for measuring a pitcher than I guess there is some validity to it(not much in the arguement you were going to make against Oswalt). If for fun you want to tell me why Oswalt's wins are useless compared to his other stats then go for it.

I guess I don't understand where you were going to go from the post that you originally made. But have fun at the site, it is a blast and the best baseball site on the web.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Mar 2, 2006 7:19 PM EST up 0 recs

Heheheheheh

My keeper roster right now, in a 14-team league with R-HR-RBI-SB-OBP/W-SV-KERA-WHIP as the cats, is:

Johan Santana
Felix Hernandez
Jason Bay
Grady Sizemore
David Wright
Rickie Weeks
Michael Young

I had a hard time choosing which SP to vote for, but I decided that I wouldn't want anyone more than Santana.

by historypeats on Mar 1, 2006 2:05 PM EST 0 recs

I actually went

with Ben Sheets, just barely over Santana. My rationale:

My gut instinct, having watched each of them pitch about 20 times and not knowing a whole lot about injuries other than what my gut tells me, is that Sheets seems more durable in the long run.
Sheets is pitching in the NL, so he can put up numbers as good without being as dominant, and if Santana doesn't maintain his dominance due to a nagging injury or something, then he should pass Santana on pure stats.
I think Milwaukee will have the better offense than Minnesota for a while, maybe 4 or 5 of the next 6 years, so more wins for Sheets if they put up otherwise identical numbers with respect to league average.

Also, I'm pretty surprised that anyone's voted for Prior. Considering how much he's been injured and how it looks doubtful that he'll have more than handful of totally healthy seasons in his career, there are 3 or 4 guys I'd think are no-brainers to take before him who aren't even on the list (Harden, Kazmir, Buerhle, at least). I understand the enthusiasm for Felix, but I'd personally like to see him make it past the injury nexus before sticking him ahead of some of the other guys up there, especially Santana, Sheets or Peavy.

by Brickhaus on Mar 1, 2006 3:03 PM EST 0 recs

santana

until proven otherwise. what he's done the last several years is just insane. people are complaining that he won't get run support from the twins, but he's won 36 games in the last two years with that pop-gun offense behind him. i think he'll be just fine.

felix and peavy are neck-and-neck for #2. everybody else takes a serious backseat. oswalt, zambrano, harden are probably the next three in my mind (in that order) but nowhere near the top guys. i'm and A's fan and i heart rich harden, but i don't see how you can make a case for him over peavy. same age, but peavy has been healthier and more effective and pitches in freaking petco park.

by the way, beckett, whom somebody mentioned, HAS NEVER HAD A GOOD FANTASY SEASON and he's about to turn 26, one year younger than santana. last year was the first time he posted even double-digit wins, and while his ratios have been pretty nice, they stand to take a major hit in the AL and particularly in fenway park.

i love ben sheets, but he's not the model of health and consistency. halladay is a dominator, too, but he's quite a bit older than these other guys, almost 29, and has had nagging injuries in addition to the freak broken leg last year.

by jpahk on Mar 1, 2006 10:06 PM EST 0 recs

Well summed up

Nicely summarized. I'm a little more bullish on Oswalt an Hallday, but otherwise I agree.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Mar 1, 2006 11:02 PM EST up 0 recs

Beckett

For the record, I wasn't trying to promote him as that type of guy. I was just mentioning him because he has been "forgotten" when it comes to young pitchers, and after being such a hyped prospect and the 2003 WS, I don't think anyone would have believed that would happen within 2 years. I would put Prior in the same boat, although he tends to get more hype based on his 2003 season.

With pitchers, I guess you never know...

by jc3 on Mar 2, 2006 6:50 AM EST 0 recs

Minor League Ball: An SB Nation Community

Login Bar

Network Bar

A Blog About Minor League Baseball, Rookies, and Prospects

Top Keeper SP in Fantasy Baseball

Which SP would you pick first in a keeper fantasy league?

Ben Sheets

Roy Halladay

Other (please specify in comments-- and don't say Tyler Clippard)

Johan Santana

Felix Hernandez

Jake Peavy

Roy Oswalt

Dontrelle Willis

Mark Prior

Carlos Zambrano

Comments

Comments For This Post Are Closed

Secondary Sidebar

Search

User Tools

FanPosts

Recommended FanPosts

Recent FanPosts