breakout guys from 04

by taggartd on Feb 8, 2006 12:58 AM EST

i am interested in hearing the readers opinions on adrian beltre and juan uribe. scouts raved about these players tools when they were coming up through the minors. they both made it to the majors fairly fast and then never really lived up to potential. that is until 2004. when beltre hit .334 .388 .629 1.017 and uribe hit .283 .327 .506 .833. will these guys be the 04 for players or the players they were in 05 and the years leading up to 04. both players are 26 as of now so they are both entering what should be their primes. i dont know what to expect from these players, does anyone?

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My opinion is that Beltre will never match '04,

though Uribe could approach his 2004 numbers another time or two in his career.

Hello taggartd,

In Beltre's case, I don't see him hitting 48 HRs again, especially not while playing half of his games in Seattle (a noted pitcher's park.) Plus, his next highest total in his professional career was in 1997 at High-A Vero Beach with 26, while his 23 in 2003 was the second-highest of his ML career.

Personally, I see Beltre hitting between 20-25 HRs, maybe approaching 30 a year or two while in Seattle, but I don't see him approaching 40 again. Getting adjusted more to the AL and to Seattle's Safeco Field will probably help him a bit, but not to 40+ HRs in my opinion.

My guess on BA would probably be around .260-.270, as his average batting average over the last 5 years is .270, but because 2004 seems to be an extreme aberration, it's likelier he will hit under .270, probably closer to .260 during most of his seasons in Seattle.

Uribe's professional high in HRs outside of 2004 was 16 in 2005 (he had 10 HRs in 2003 with the Rockies and 13 in 2000 with Salem, a Rockies affiliate.) Therefore, I think 23 HRs was on the high side for Uribe.

He does play in a ballpark more conducive to HRs than Beltre, so I think he has a chance to have 1 or 2 years where he could hit 20-25 HRs again, but I think it's likelier he hits around 15 to maybe 20 HRs in a season, much like he did in 2005.

Uribe's batting average is harder to guess because he's only had a few years with the White Sox and has had a .283 BA and a .252 BA. The average of those two would be about .267-.268, which sounds about right, though it could be a bit lower because he only hit .240 and .253 in two different seasons with the Rockies (a noted hitter's park,) so it would not surprise me if his BA is closer to .250, much like it was in 2005.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

by indiansfan on Feb 8, 2006 1:47 AM EST reply actions

Pecota (my new toy this week :-)

has uribe 2006 weighted mean line at this: .263/.310/.438. A nice slugging pct, but an obp on the low side. He's got power though, and his upside (90%) places him around this: .290/.345/.507. This'll be his Age 26 year, which doesn't always mean a lot for light-hitting middle infielders, but for Juan I think it's significant. Over the next 3 or 4 years, with some luck, he could even receive some year-end MVP votes, and make an occasional All-Star game. Joe Crede, Alex Gonzalez (the former Cub) & Ty Wigginton are a few of his comps, which doesn't bode that well; but so too are Gary Gaetti (who had a strong years for the Twins from 86 to 88), & Andy Carey (who had up & down years for the Yanks in the 50s).

Also, he plays in a park that's only going to help his power numbers. I'm hoping he comes around.

by Azteca on Feb 8, 2006 10:15 AM EST up reply actions

Uribe

I was hoping Uribe would break out in 2005, but he seemed impatient at times.

I know he got juggled in the order a bit, but I don't know how much that contributed. He finally came around in the last month of the season, so maybe he'll continue that in 2006.

by sasquatch83 on Feb 8, 2006 10:49 AM EST reply actions

Beltre

My projections for Beltre, going forward:

Age GMS AB R HITS DBL TRP HR RBI BB AVG
27    155    591    90    172    33    0    26    93    50    0.291
28    153    578    83    165    35    1    26    92    40    0.286
29    158    591    79    161    32    0    27    92    47    0.272
30    155    588    73    158    32    0    24    85    44    0.269
31    156    574    72    157    31    0    23    83    45    0.274
32    155    570    64    150    30    0    20    76    45    0.263
33    153    510    54    130    26    0    16    65    45    0.256
34    151    436    45    112    22    0    13    54    38    0.257
35    140    324    31    81    15    0    9    38    29    0.250
36    133    231    20    56    11    0    6    25    21    0.244
37    138    164    13    38    7    0    3    16    15    0.229
38    91    77    7    20    4    0    2    8    7    0.255
39    22    14    1    3    1    0    0    1    1    0.213

I think he'll recapture some of the power he showed in the 48 homer season, but won't reach that level again; also, I think he's likely to tail off earlier than expected...he's got a LOT of mileage on his body for a younger player. Given his spectacular defense he's still a very solid third baseman, but will fall short of the superduperstar levels that we Dodger fans had hoped for when he was 19.

by silvysilv on Feb 8, 2006 1:08 PM EST reply actions

important year for Beltre

I drafted Adrian Beltre with the first pick of our draft in 1997. He was on of my favorite prospects of all time. He was just 17 I think at the time (although it was later revealed he was a few years older).

He has been a major disappointment. He broke out in 2004 and I thought he would finally reach his potential. Then he signs with the M's and I knew he would fall back into his old habits and take a while to adjust.

I think this year is an important year for him. If he hits well I think he will go on to have a solid career. If he scuffles yet again, I think he will never recapture his potential.

by The Scout on Feb 9, 2006 1:19 PM EST reply actions