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Molina Signs - Blue Jays most improved?

With last night's signing of Benjie Molina, the Blue Jays have completed their makeover.  In my opinion, they improved themselves more than any other team during this off-season.  I believe it could be arguably stated that they improved in 5 positions:
Catcher - Molina may not be much better, but at least Zaun won't have to catch 140 games.
1st base - I'll take my chances with Overbay over Hinske.
3rd Base - Glaus beats the Koskie / Hillenbrand daily double hands down.
Starting Pitcher - It's been hotly debated on this site but Burnett does give the Jays a solid option at #2.
Closer - B.J. kicks the crap out of whats-his-name.

The only place they may have weakened themselves is 2nd base...but its a little too early to tell how young Mr. Hill is going to fare.

My questions are these.  Are the Jays the most improved team?  Will they be improved enough to make the playoffs?  If they're not the most improved, who is?

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Most improved?
Certainly.

Best use of money and talent to use? That I give to Florida, as much as I hate fire sales.

Best team in the east? No clue, but I wouldn't bet against them in a 7 game series.

by irwin on Feb 7, 2006 12:29 AM EST reply actions  

I like the BJs' offseason, but...
B.J. Ryan will really make little difference, as he'll pitch 70 innings and the bullpen was quite strong in '05.  And Molina is little better than Zaun (if at all).  I was surprised to see how much I and many others had overrated Bengie, his numbers aren't all that great, especially in OBP.

That said, Glaus and Burnett are excellent and actually underrated... if they stay healthy.

The Mets probably improved more, as Wagner is as good as Ryan (Billy's got a better track record, though he's also older), and I'd take Delgado over Glaus any day.

The Red Sox got Beckett and basically totally remade their bullpen.

The White Sox getting Thome and Vazquez makes them a better team than last year's.

Even the Rangers did pretty well with Millwood (for this year, anyway) and Wilkerson for Soriano is a surprisingly good deal.

And of course a lot of teams did pretty well mostly by letting their young guys play or get a year better, like the Brewers and As and Twins.

But all that said, I guess you can make as good a case for the Jays as anyone.

by abbreviatedman on Feb 7, 2006 12:53 AM EST reply actions  

underrated
That said, Glaus and Burnett are excellent and actually underrated... if they stay healthy.

i hate arguing over "underrated" and "overrated" but i couldn't believe this one. burnett is a guy who's always been regarded as having just about the best arm in baseball but who has never figured it all out. his stuff is so good that he can still dominate for stretches but he's obviously never given any thought to the science of pitching, or to keeping himself healthy... i just can't see how such a player can be "underrated."

glaus used to be underrated, back when he was the kind of player who hit for a mediocre average but backed it up with crazy power, tons of walks, and terrific defense. now, though, it's been 6 years since his crazy 2000 (284/404/604), and he's hit .250 every single year, been injured a lot, and his glove has gone all to hell. i don't think he's underrated at all. now the guy he was traded for, orlando hudson--that guy is underrated. he's probably the best defensive player in all of baseball, annually worth anywhere from 20 to 30 runs more just with the leather than an average player at his position. it's going to absolutely kill halladay and burnett, two extreme ground-ballers, having aaron hill and glaus in the infield (not to mention russ adams, yuck) instead of hudson and corey koskie.

i do like all of the blue jays' moves this season other than the glaus-hudson trade. but in that one, they actually got the worse player (hitting isn't everything!) in addition to taking on tons of salary.

by jpahk on Feb 7, 2006 7:02 AM EST up reply actions  

underrated
I don't know... I look at Burnett's peripherals and I think to myself, "Actualy, he should be giving up fewer runs than he is" even though his ERA's have not been bad.

I think it's because he doesn't allow many baserunners but he lets a higher-than-average proportion of baserunners score because he's not very good out of the stretch. Maybe it's just bad luck or maybe it's because he can't pitch out of the stretch. I'm not sure, but I think he's a bit better than he's shown so far.

by FI on Feb 7, 2006 10:50 AM EST up reply actions  

that's my point exactly
everybody thinks burnett should be better than he's been. but he won't be. he's just not bright enough to be a great pitcher. his stuff is amazing, but that's all he has, and it's not enough. so if you have a player whose performances have always been and will always be (okay, that part is just my opinion, but i'm pretty sure of it) below what people think he should be doing... how is that underrated? everybody in the industry rates burnett higher than his actual worth.

by jpahk on Feb 7, 2006 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Actually, Burnett
wasn't an exteme groundball guy until last year.  It could be argued that last year was a fluke and his GB/FB is even.  
I completely agree that Hudson is an awesome defender.  And Webb IS an extreme groundball pitcher, with that amazing sinker.  Hudson will be appreciated in Arizona.

by kc on Feb 7, 2006 12:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Dodgers
Well, I said this in another post about best signings, but I think the Dodgers did a fantastic job of addressing their holes with good, not-overpriced, and not-geriatric ballplayers this off-season.  

To me, the most questionable deals they made where giving up on Bradley, but they lived with him and you gotta go with what you believe.  And trading seemingly good prospects for Baez.  But they needed Baez, so it helped them this year.

So, when you consider the tidal wave of injuries from last year is mostly past them, and then consider all the good players they brought in at or near their peaks, I think this team is going to be very much improved.

That said, the Jays were actually in the race in 2005, even after Halladay was out for a month.  They were 52-50 when McGowan got his first start, only 5 games out.  If they can hang that close with the team they had and the injuries they had, they should be respectable this year.  They will miss Hudson more than most people think, though.

by BobbyMac on Feb 7, 2006 2:51 AM EST reply actions  

bone to pick
Now, everyone's entitled to their opinions, but "the Dodgers did a fantastic job of addressing their holes with good, not-overpriced, and not-geriatric ballplayers this off-season" seems uninformed to me.

The Dodgers replaced the 27-year old Milton Bradley (whom I think is overrated btw) with the 38-year old Kenny Lofton.  They signed Furcal to a $13 million per year contract when I don't think anyone else was going over $10.  They signed Nomar (who's played like he's 38 years old the last few years) to a $6 million dollar deal.  The Dodgers will now have trouble trying to figure out who plays where when Izturis comes back.

It seems to me that the Dodgers basically did a bunch of deals just to make Gagne happy instead of going into the offseason with a plan and executing it.  To me, they basically looked and said "Izturis is out for the first 1/2, let's get a SS and worry about it later."  When Nomar was available, they said "Hee isn't too good, let's sign Nomar to play 1B."  Amidst all that, they did a lot of shuffling in their bullpen to add a marginal closer to fill-in for Gagne.

I think the Dodgers were certainly one of the most active teams, but as far as addressing short-and long-term holes, they fall far short of the Blue Jays.

by lenred on Feb 7, 2006 9:21 AM EST up reply actions  

I'll take the middle ground
The Dodgers did a good job of making short term commitments so they don't block prospects they feel will be ready soon.  Still, the moves seem somewhat disjointed.  Why sign Tomko when you're going to trade for Seo?  Now, with five starters under MLB contracts, Billz is blocked.  Where will he fit if he is ready sometime during the season?  This is - to me - a case of the Dodgers not having a real strategy in the offseason.

Why offer Choi a contract and resign Saenz just to go get Nomar at first?  They seem like contradictory moves.

The Baez deal was shortsited.  He has already said to the LA Times that he wants to close and will not be back in 2007 unless he is closing.  And why Lance Carter?  Oh why Lance Carter?

Still, I think the Furcal deal will end up being a good one.  I can live with Mueller and his bad knees.  The trade for Jae Seo was good return for Sanchez.  And at least most signings (Nomar, Lofton, Cruz) are a minimal commitment.

by count sutton on Feb 7, 2006 9:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Improved? Yes. Best in East? well.....
Short term:  
They are definitely improved for 2006, and it looks like they will have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, IF everyone stays healthy.  They are bringing in a whole lot of injury history with Burnett and Glaus.

The one sure thing in that rotation is Halladay (his injury was a freak occurance, he should be fine).  We all know about Burnett (great stuff, iffy command at times).  If Chacin's ratios don't catch up with him in 2006, he should be useful.

Yeah, they're improved, but I can't see how anyone could objectively pencil them into 1st place in the AL East right now.

Long term:
All I will say is that they spent $100 million dollars on BJ Ryan and AJ Burnett.  That is a lot of money for 2 decent pitchers (one of whom will give you 70 innings per season), especially for a team that has trouble putting fans in the seats.  I think these signings were incredibly risky, and maybe short-sighted.

by SmokeyJoeWood on Feb 7, 2006 7:10 AM EST reply actions  

This move doesnt make them any better
Outside of one year where he murdered lefties (last year), he's been an awful hitter and his defense is just average despite his lofty reputation. Zaun actually has better career numbers. I hope JP keeps sinking money into these kinds of players.

by PooNani on Feb 7, 2006 7:35 AM EST reply actions  

Glaus sucks in the field
I've looked at his numbers, and he's a butcher at 3B now.  Koskie is great in the field, so while the Jays gain on 3B offense, they certainly lose some points on 3B defense.  My gut says they gain more on the offensive gain then on the defensive loss, but I don't think it's as much as most people think.

by sabernar on Feb 7, 2006 8:00 AM EST reply actions  

Blue Jays may be worse
Ryan is an upgrade, although moving from an adequate closer to a likely very good closer is not a huge move.

Glaus is an upgrade, although not as big of one as many presume. I think sabernar has it about right. Glaus over the last 2 years in 39 runs above average in 745 ABs. Koskie is 18 runs above average in 776 ABs. So Glaus is worth about 10 runs a season with the bat over Koskie. The glove difference gives back half of that, meaning Glaus is worth about a half win for the Jays. If he is healthy.

Overbay is a marginal upgrade over Hinske (284 vs 271 EqA). Maybe another win on the plus side.

Now for the bad news.

Losing Hudson was huge. He is one of the best defensive players in all of baseball. I think he represents more of a loss than any of the players gained are plusses.

Burnett replaces Bush in the rotation. Huge upgrade right? NO!
To adjust for park, league, etc. I look at normalized runs allowed (BP NRA). Over the last 2 years, Bush has put up 3.78 and 4.41 numbers. Meanwhile, hidden by his park, Burnett has put up 3.88 and 4.35. I call it a wash. Maybe Burnett will harness that awesome arm to actually become a star pitcher. But at 29, he is more likely to lose the arm than harness it. Meanwhile, at 26, Bush is likely to still be improving.

Then comes Molina. I can't figure out why anyone wants him. 29 GMs seemed to have figured that out as well. He was a valuable hitter last year and if he can repeat that, he has some value. But he has a career 239 EqA. That is Alex Cora territory. Meanwhile Greg Zaun has a 248 career EqA. His worst year in the last 3 equals Molina's second best year in his entire career. And Molina at this point is too fat to be an effective catcher. Just on offense, this is about as much of a downgrade as Overbay represents of offense. Including fielding and hitting, Molina is as much of a downgrade as Overbay and Glaus combine to be an upgrade. Maybe the team will be smart enough to bench him by midseason when it becomes clear that last season was a fluke. But by that time, damage will be done.

If Moline plays at career norms and is given the entire season, I think the offseason moves, despite the $, leave the jays worse than last year.

Their best hope for improvement is a healthy Halladay. A full, typical season of Halladay would be a bigger upgrade than all the positive above combined. Wells could also easily improve his game notably. Of course, a Chacin returns to his expected level of play will offset part of that.

by cdamon on Feb 7, 2006 9:13 AM EST reply actions  

may be worse
Yep, and Chacin will return to expected levels of play - about league average pitcher. His peripherals were simply not that good in 2005 and he's also going to be hurt by the Jays' changes on the defensive side (Hudson to Hill is a big downgrade in my opinion).

by FI on Feb 7, 2006 10:55 AM EST up reply actions  

couple of points
cdamon - a couple of comments.

You used health as a negative for Glaus but this was when you were comparing him to Koskie. Obviously in that regard health favors Glaus over Koskie.

The other is Glaus' value with the bat. Not about eqa or anything. But what he does to protect Wells. If Glaus has a good year I could see Vernon have a big campaign this year.

Halladay will be the key of course. But last year while Halladay was healthy and Toronto was in the hunt we all knew eventually they would fall out of the race. This year they can compete. I think they will come up short in September but have a good year.

by pedrophile on Feb 7, 2006 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

responses
I think Glaus and Koskie are both injury risks. I don't see that it is obviously an advantage to Glaus. I was trying to make the point that any time that both are hurt, there is no upgrade at all.

There is only weak support for protection in any form, any then only provided by truly exceptional hitters. Glaus simply is not that kind of hitter. Bonds yes, Pujols probably, Manny maybe, Glaus unlikely. He is not in the same class as Delgado.

Thanks for the comments.

by cdamon on Feb 7, 2006 2:22 PM EST up reply actions  

The upgrade is this...
Hillenbrand is capable at 3rd and bad at 1st.  Hinske has worked hard on D and is now above average at both positions.  With Hillenbrand at #3 on the depth chart for 1st and 3rd he will (probably) not play in the field and hence a net gain at 1st and (argueably) a small gain at 3rd.
Yoda

by Yoda on Feb 8, 2006 3:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Spent alot of money
but I don't see much improvement. They have one or two years before the Rays pass them as the 3rd best team in the East. They have some young kids but with very little upside in Rios/Hill/Adams. If Burnett earns his money they will have a nice 1/2 punch but I don't think the starting team will support the pitching in that division enough for them to compete.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen.

by Phil Gurnee on Feb 7, 2006 11:27 AM EST reply actions  

Kinda sorta
Someone at BP, can't remember who at the moment, described the Jays as more "reshuffled" than improved, at least on offense.  I agree with that for the most part.  BJ Ryan really helps, assuming his arm stays on for the duration of that contract.  Glaus is better than whatever they had at third and/or DH last year, but not by all that much.  Overbay's gonna look pretty Koskie-esque from here on out, and I'm not really sure that Aaron Hill is a significantly better hitter than Orlando Hudson.  They still don't have much of an outfield, particularly if Rios doesn't develop, and when Molina reverts to being Molina he's not really all that much better than Zaun anyway.  Burnett...  I'm not a Burnett fan.  He's a somewhat above average pitcher who's not particularly consistent or particularly durable.  Frankly they could have gotten a similar net performance out of David Bush for like 1/10 the money.

The way this all works out though is if they see something that can be tweaked with Burnett to make him the dominant force people think he should be, have a way to keep Glaus and Molina healthy and productive, and think Overbay can rebound and stay an above-average player for a while yet.  Overbay's a decent bet to out-hit Hinske, and if Hill improves his offense he may even out with Hudson.  Hill is younger, and Hudson may lose a ton of his value quickly when he loses half a step, so perhaps it was best to cash out early, and getting a proven power hitter is one way to do that.  Hill's bat plays a lot better at second as well.

Then they've gotta hope that Wells stays healthy, and that Rios and Adams figure things out.

Meh, it's a lot of money down the tubes, and while they may be competetive with the Red Sox in their current state I think it's highly unlikely that they have the horses to take the East from them and the Yankees this year or next, which would appear to be the goal of these machinations.

by delomir on Feb 7, 2006 5:20 PM EST reply actions  

my take
Ryan is a huge addition. Look at Batistas number. 8 blown saves. 8 losses. 4.10 era. 6 blown saves after all-star break when Jays were actually contending. He might be ok closer on a losing team but doesn't have either the ability or mentality to cut it on a winner.

Glaus - poor defence. Big bat. Not as good as he used to be but will help. Also, it moves Aaron Hill to 2B where he belongs. I wouldn't be suprised if Aaron Hill matches Hudson value if his bat improves. Probably a little lower but close.

Overbay - solid player. Not a star but will be a decent upgrade.

Burnett - Will be solid with potential. This one baffles me when I listen to people. Beckett was considered the steal of the off-season and Burnett is considered worse than Bush? I like David Bush. But the Jays were not making the playoffs with him. They may win with Burnett. They need him to pitch like last year, if he does they will be in the hunt.

Molina - ok signing and only 1 year. It gives them protection in case Zaun totally disappears this year. Certainly better signing than Reggie Sanders for 2 years, lol.

by pedrophile on Feb 7, 2006 7:46 PM EST reply actions  

generally agree
Ryan may be more of an upgrade than I give him credit for. However well he pitched last year, he still has a 3.54 career ERA. Even with his good year, Ryan blew 5 saves himself last year. If he can repeat his outstanding year from last year, you can say he would improve the team by 3 games.

I even see Burnett as solid with potential. But solid is what Burnett was last year and what Bush was last year. Despite the huge $$, this is not an upgrade. The park and league differences just make it look like Burnett was much better.

Molina is not a bad signing if he is treated as Zaun's insurance. But I expect the starting job is Molina's to lose, which will probably be a downgrade over Zaun last year. I put better odds on Sanders playing well for 2 years than Molina playing well this year. I honestly believe he is below replacement level right now. If he was still a good defensive C, that would be one thing. But he was so overweight last year that he was almost as painful to watch play defense as Renteria.

by cdamon on Feb 7, 2006 8:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Jays
I do agree with this. But I think the Jays brass have one thing in mind. They know they are not as good as Boston or NY, even though the press is saying they passed Boston. And they know some players will have to step up for them to make the playoffs.

So Bush and Burnett may be equal. But Burnett is one guy that could step-up in a big way.

It is also about confidence. There was zero confidence with Batista. And for some reason Toronto had little confidence with Bush. When Bush started to pitch bad it became ugly. I really like him, but he has less room for error. Given another year I think he really settles down. But having Bush without Orlando - that would have been ugly.

Toronto needs a couple things to compete:

  1. Halladay healthy - must
  2. Rest of the pen to step up - must
  3. Settle their DH/corner outfield and get production
  4. McGowan producing late in the season either as setup or in rotation

by pedrophile on Feb 8, 2006 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

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