Jeremy Reed Projections

by ufo on Feb 6, 2006 5:55 AM EST Comment 15 comments

now that he's probably staying in Seattle, does anyone have projections for him?

how good of a hitter is he, and does he have to worry about Carl Everett? (gasp!) FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER

Poll

What are your thoughts on Jeremy Reed?

The slippery slope begins

3 votes

Get out while theres still time!

3 votes

Upside as big as ever

14 votes

Defenitly one to watch

71 votes

Looks ok

48 votes

I'm not sure

13 votes

152 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 15 comments

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Comments

2006

It is pretty well known that he was having wrist issues all year. I don't think a quantum leap is in the offing, but .308-7-65-20 should be doable. He's solid, not amazing, in the field. He'll have a nice year.

by silvysilv on Feb 6, 2006 9:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hopin' it ain't so but,

apparently he had wrist problems a couple of years ago in the minors. I don't know if it was the same wrist.

Yoda

by Yoda on Feb 6, 2006 11:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

talk about your noncommittal options

I'm not even sure what the difference between most of these poll choices is supposed to be...

and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Feb 6, 2006 10:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

wrist

if we believe the major league equivalencies he should have a bounce back year. The question is whether the wrist injury is chronic and has caused a permanent downward adjustement in his hitting ability. I've seen debate on both sides and have no ability to call him in for a medical exam (and not being a doctor don't know what I would be looking for anyway). So, I guess my answer is that I just don't know

by BERSMR on Feb 6, 2006 11:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

re

solid big leaguer for many years, ala Kotsay.

by ScottAZ on Feb 6, 2006 11:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kotsay Comp

I like the Kotsay comparison, but I Reed should have a lot better plate discipline and will get on base at a higher rate.

by Jerry on Feb 6, 2006 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

compare to Crisp

Not surprising that these two get compared, given the huge speculation (some of it real) about the two of them and the RSox.

Look at Coco's 2003 #'s from 2002-2003 and compare them to Reed's from 04-05:

Crisp
2002 AAA 360/434/511 225 AB 316 EqA
2002 ML 260/314/386 127 AB 257 EqA
2003 ML 266/302/353 414 AB 237 EqA

Reed
2003 AA 409/474/591 242 AB 334 EqA
2004 AAA 275/357/420 276 AB 260 EqA (Charlotte)
2004 AAA 305/366/455 233 AB 265 EqA (Tacoma)
2004 ML 397/470/466 58 AB 342 EqA
2005 ML 254/322/352 488 AB 252 EqA

Crisp was 5 months younger when he debuted, but Reed had similar or better minor league numbers overall and put up much better numbers for his cup of coffee and slight better (park adjusted) numbers for his first full season.

I think Reed in 06 will put up a season comparable to Crisp's 2004 with a little less HR power but more walks and better CF defense.

by cdamon on Feb 6, 2006 11:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

A short-term comparison

I think Reed's minor league numbers look a ton like David Dejesus's. Of course, this really doesn't do much good for a long term projection, but I could easily see 2006 Reed match 2005 DeJesus: .293/.359/.445. After that, I think one could expect .300/.360/.420 lines for a long time. Hell, maybe even a couple .330/.400/.450 lines if he gets hit-lucky.

by Fist of Fury on Feb 6, 2006 6:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I would be surprised....

if he ever had a .400 OBP.

If you have ever seen this guy hit, he believes in using the bat. He's not one to take 2 pitches in a row on the outside corner. He might give the pitcher that first one, but he knows he can poke that sucker to left and he'll sure as hell try if the pitcher tries it again.

I'm not saying he is wontonly swinging, just that when I have seen him he believes if he can put it in play he's getting a hit. You throw pitches over his head and bounce a couple, fall behind and he might take a pitch. But I think he's got (or had) so much confidence in his ability to serve the ball where it's pitched that he's going to go after those fringe pitches that good MLB pitchers can offer up.

When he's hot, he's going to hit .450 over two weeks. When he's not, he's going to hit .200 or worse. I don't think taking those borderline pitchers is really his game, at least not yet. Hopefully he gained a little humility last season and can take some more walks.

Hopefully his weak performance last year really is a function of his wrist being injuried and he bounces back this year.

"Strikeouts are good...groundballs are better. Home runs are okay...but walks SUCK!" Mike Caldwell

by Torncuff on Feb 6, 2006 7:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He draws a reasonable number of walks

I have only had a chance to see him play a few times, but he has drawn a reasonable number of walks all through his professional career. He walked about once per 10 AB last year. That gives him a IsoD range of 60- 80 points, whether in the majors or minors. I am not sure he will ever hit 330 for a season, but if he does, a 400 OBP seems plausible.

by cdamon on Feb 6, 2006 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Reminder

The approach you describe and his k/bb rates bring to mind a less agressive Nomar. Which isn't to say he'll hit like Nomar by any means, the tools aren't there, that was just what popped in my head first.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Feb 6, 2006 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No Nomar

Nomar is one of the most frequent first-ball swingers in all of baseball (and very effective at it). That doesn't seem like Reed's thing to me. Nomar so far in his career has been at 3.18 P/PA, whereas Reed was 3.50 his first partial season, and 3.72 this past year (3.70 "career" total). The 3.72 was 81st out of 128 qualifiers last year (Cano was last at 3.05).

by BobbyMac on Feb 6, 2006 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thus...

Less aggressive. It was this part "But I think he's got (or had) so much confidence in his ability to serve the ball where it's pitched that he's going to go after those fringe pitches that good MLB pitchers can offer up." That reminded me of Nomar, the confidence in his ability to hit pretty much anything he could reach.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Feb 6, 2006 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think I remember hearing...

... that the Ms had seriously messed with his hitting approach last year. Trying to get him to swing more aggressively when he's always been a patient hitter. Someone (got me who, mind like a steel sieve) cited that difference in hitting philosophies as part of the reason he underachieved last year.

by abbreviatedman on Feb 6, 2006 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would be suprised too...

If he had a .400 OBP without hitting .330 or higher. I do like his chances of having a couple high-average seasons, though, since he has decent speed (though his SB success rate been awful), and he has a smooth line-drive swing. And, as has been mentioned, he likes to make contact. I think he fits the profile of a hitter who will live and die by his batting average. I don't think he'll ever develop more than 8-10 HR power, but he should be a reasonable source of OBP from the 2-hole. I think that expectations may run a little hot sometimes.

by Fist of Fury on Feb 6, 2006 10:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs