Minnesota Twins Top 20 Prospects

Hooray!

I don't remember how it was done last year, but whoever figured the way to rank the total farm system with a points system, i hope you're here to do it again.

Doesn't Baker no longer qualify as a prospect?

Interesting to see the difference in BA.  Boof Bonser at 25, Denard Span at 6.

nice call, as he put up quality numbers in rookie ball.  A little on the smallish side if I remember correctly.

What changed you grade on Rainville?

Great job, but a few comments:

I cannot see anything other than Kubel just raking at the big league level, once he gets back his timing.  For that reason, I cannot really understand why he would be sixth instead of third.  Garza (wow, you must know something here) and Swarzak (especially) are top prospect pitchers, but they're pitchers, and they've never pitched above A ball, and Garza's only pitched 10 games at low A as a "college" pitcher.  It's possible, but I doubt that Moses will ever hit as well as Kubel will on some of Kubel's "average" years.  Swarzak at A+ at 19 yrs was kind of sick, though he will be back at Ft. Myers.

As for plus power potential, you mention only Kubel and Moses, but what about Romero?  I know the knock, but you realize he hit most of his 15 homers (in a pitcher's league) and started killing the ball after changing his mechanics midway through 2005.  Seems there could well be plus power potential there, too.

Something tells me Juan Portes will have some serious smack (please let it be the good kind) in his bat, too.  And don't forget Henry Sanchez, who was coming off a hand injury AND who played without his contacts (they are special, apparently) the first part of his short, short season.

They are not in John's book, and he lists 36 Twins.  Have to believe it's an oversight, since Jones has got to be more promising than Kevin West or Caleb Moore.  BA ranks them 23 and 21, respectively.

Is Portes still a breakout candidate if he ends up in left field? It seems that the Twins are still looking for a position he can play.

I'm also curious about the reason for having Garza, Slowey and Duensing from this year's draft on the list, but not Sanchez, Kelly and Thompson. Is the fact that the first three guys are college players the only reason? Do you think the Twins overdrafted the three high school kids?

I think both of these guys will end up being absolute studs in the majors.

Good looking list.  That's a bloody deep system.  I like where Span is, but he'd be Top 10 in some systems.  So might Justin Jones and Casilla, for that matter.

Out of curiosity, where did Alex Smit fall?  A-level relievers don't constitute top-20 prospects, but from what I can tell he has some dang good stuff, and is pretty young.  He may go Franciso Rodriguez on baseball one of these years.

One nit-pick, and it truly is: I am somewhat surprised that Liriano is a solid A prospect.  Given that 2005 was his first healthy year basically ever, I'd think he'd warrant an A-.

one of the top prospects in baseball as is. And now, he and Johan Santana apparently hit it off. So now he will be spending quality time with the best pitcher in the world. Picking up a few tricks?!?! That's not good for the rest of the league.

And then the same for Baker. Learning from Radke and all. DARNIT!

The Twins staff is sick. Not that Radke is top tier anymore, but a back to back Johan/Liriano with Baker and Radke in the mix?!?!

I'd stil take the A's with more depth (in the majors), but Liriano/Santana makes me wanna sh** my pants. And they got more on the way.

I agree with most of the ratings, but Perkins seems a bit low. I mean, how is he a worse prospect then Boof?

I think he does have a shot for long relief, but they may also inform him that they want him starting in AAA so he can be ready to step in the rotation if needed (Lohse trade, injury).  He's seventh on the list right now, unless they give Matt Guerrier priority.

As ohad said, this system is DEEP in pitching, although there is a gap.  There are seven or eight guys (from Santana to Bonser) starting or probably ready to start in the bigs, but then the next wave (a much bigger wave at this at this point) is a group headed by AA newbies Perkins (only sort of a newbie), Jones, and Harben.  From there on down, the system is FLUSH.

I'll repeat the Midwest League mgr who said that normally has five players overall who can be considered legitimate prospects--the Beloit Twins had ten pitchers.

He fell pretty far on the prospect list, didn't he?  I'm not sure what will happen to the Real Deal, but he's been surpassed by several other candidates as both starters and relievers.  I'd say he's trade-bait at this point.  

A fellow Walla Wallan, Jason Grove was recently added to the AA roster for the Twins.  After leaving Washington State University as at least an average prospect, Grove spent a few summers in the Yankees farm system, eventually topping out at AA Trenton.

When he was re-assigned to Trenton last spring, Grove asked out of his contract and was granted his wish, only to find there was no need for his talents in other farm systems.

Now 27 (or soon-to-be), and on the extreme upper-end, in regards to age, of most prospects, I'm curious to know if there is any speculation on Grove's arrival to the Twins organization.

It seems reasonably certain he'd not have made John's book, after a year removed from the game - but is there a reasonable chance he could still progress past AAA?

John, I really think it would be helpful if you put last years grade next to the player.  Seeing those jumps are important in projecting a player.  

Do people realize the if Liriano posts a 3.21 or 3.55 ERA next year (as 27% vote him for) that that would place him 4th or 5th (either right ahead or right behind Silva) in last years ERA standings (this is assuming he does that a starting pitcher)

People get their hopes for rookie prospects up so high sometimes.  There is usually anjustment period you know, though Liriano has got some of that out of the way alreaduy

I'm curious about whether the high ratings for Swarzak and Garza and the (relatively) low ones for Perkins and Waldrop are related to your perception of their ceilings i.e. do Anthony and Matt have #1 starter potential and Glen and Kyle more like #3? It's probably more complicated than that, but I thought Perkins would be higher and Swarzak lower, so am trying to make sense out of the differences. And Rainville is getting a lot more fanfare than I expected from watching the numbers develop for all these guys in 2005.

Thanks for the rankings... it's awesome to see, as are the comments from others.

I'd have them as B's for now.  I'm always hesitant to fully jump on the bandwagon of a pitcher who hasn't reached Double-A yet, unless they're too dominant to ignore(and neither of them were).

I'm really curious to see what Kevin Slowey does next year.

I think Romero should be a solid B prospect if not B+ and i also think he should be rated higher than 12.  Just one man's opinion though

is a twins top 20 prospect.

There are also not 19 guys id rather have in my system then Henry Sanchez based on potential...which prospects really are.

I agree on Sanchez.

I don't think Portes, Bonser, Mullins or Romero belong on the list above him and I think you can say the same thing about Kelly, the Twins second round choice this year.

The Twins are deep enough though that you can probably take any four prospects on the list and its very likely at least one of them will contribute at the major league level at some point.  Romero and Bonser are certainly more likely to be one of those at this point than Sanchez or Kelly.

There is always a balance between skills and tools. John's evalutations seem to give more weight to certainty (developed skills) rather than ceiling (tools). I assume that is why Kelly and Sanchez aren't on the list, but guys like Romero and Bonser are.

Last year I got to see one of the better prospect pitching matchups in the minors last year.

It was a 10:00 am start at Double-A New Britain for Liriano vs. Papelbon.  It was one of the best pitching duels I saw all year (majors included).

Both pitchers looked downright overpowering.  I would say I was a little more impressed with Liriano.  He was painting corners with a 97 mph fastball and made it look easy.  His offspeed stuff made good prospects like Pedroia, Ramirez and Moss look downright silly.  Although I think Pedroia had an infield hit.

Both pitchers had no hitters trough 6.

Truly a beautiful thing to watch.

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