Texas Rangers Top 20 Prospects List

by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2006 2:20 PM EST in News

TEXAS RANGERS TOP 20 PROSPECTS

Eric Hurley, RHP, Grade B+
Edison Volquez, RHP, B+
John Danks, LHP, B+
Thomas Diamond, RHP, B+
Ian Kinsler, 2B, B
Taylor Teagarden, C, B
John Mayberry Jr, OF, B
Joaquin Arias, SS, B-
Johnny Whittleman, 3B, B-
Jason Botts, OF-1B, C+
Armando Galarraga, RHP, C+
Michael Schlact, RHP, C+
Travis Metcalf, 3B, C+
Vince Sinisi, 1B, C+
Michael Kirkman, LHP, C+
Wes Littleton, RHP, C
Mike Nickeas, C, C
Marshall McDougall, 3B, C
Omar Beltre, RHP, C
Anthony Webster, OF, C (grade change from C+ in book)

The Hurley/Volquez/Danks/Diamond quartet is hard to rate; all four have excellent raw talent but all four have some question marks. I basically went with the rankings I used in the Top 50 list in the book.

There are a large number of Grade C prospects in this system that I think are sleepers and could be on the list in the 16-20 range, depending on what you want to emphasize. They include RHP Omar Poveda, RHP John Bannister, OF Brandon Boggs, OF K.C. Herren, RHP Kea Komenani, RHP Doug Mathis, and RHP Matt Nevarez.

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Eric Hurley

Has to be one of the ugliest people in the US. He looks like he just got "Hitler'ed" (go watch South Park). THough i'm sure being hitler'ed isn't just a south park thing.

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by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 24, 2006 2:32 PM EST reply actions

ugly

Another ugly dude, Dante Bichette. Scary.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Feb 24, 2006 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

Otis

Otis Nixson has to be the all ugly CFer.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Feb 24, 2006 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

You all lose...

Willie McGee. I win.

by The Colonel on Feb 24, 2006 4:34 PM EST up reply actions

Cosell

I remember how McGee was really hurt when Howard referred to him as E.T.

by Flynn Blake on Feb 24, 2006 4:36 PM EST up reply actions

Telling it like it is... :)

by The Colonel on Feb 24, 2006 5:22 PM EST up reply actions

Ha

A dude in one of my fantasy leagues team name is Ugly like Willie McGee.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Feb 24, 2006 5:33 PM EST up reply actions

sorry

you all lose. gustavo chacin.

by Rob Castellano on Feb 25, 2006 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

Porn Mustache

It looks as if Jeff Kent is going to have to step it up to keep his MLB Porn Mustache Crown.

by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 24, 2006 2:52 PM EST up reply actions

Thought Kent was great

in that film "Put It In, Coach."

by The Colonel on Feb 25, 2006 12:08 AM EST up reply actions

Or his debut in.....

Screwballs.

by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 25, 2006 9:09 AM EST up reply actions

He

looks kinda like a VERY young version of Don Mossi...

by Brickhaus on Feb 24, 2006 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

Actually

That might just be a bad picture though. Don Mossi looked ugly in EVERY picture.

by Brickhaus on Feb 24, 2006 4:28 PM EST up reply actions

And

his nose is way too small. Nice on the big ears, triple chin with no body fat and the hitler moustache, but just not quite as bulbous as the Mossmeister...

by Brickhaus on Feb 24, 2006 6:38 PM EST up reply actions

Rangers fan here

I like John's Rangers list. Hurley is defnitely in the DVD's class, to me, and I like Whittleman's and Kirkman's rankings. I think that Mayberry is a little too high until he proves something with his overhauled swing, and I know that some are going to question the omissions of Rupe, Feldman, Castro and Wilson from the 27 mentioned. I would have put probably three of them in the top 20. I also think that Arias' ranking is more reflective of where he should be, somewhere 6-8 in the system.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 24, 2006 2:36 PM EST reply actions

A recommendation, John

Next poll question:

Who has the most godawful mustache?

Eric Hurley

Adam Morrison

by Sulla on Feb 24, 2006 2:37 PM EST reply actions

ADAM MORRISON

HAHAHAHAHAHHA.

I hadn't seen that, that's hilarious. What a terrible mustache. Wow, he just looks like a jackass.

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by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 24, 2006 2:54 PM EST up reply actions

Adam Morrisons Mustache is a different case.

Someone once made the comparison to me and I know it to be true. Remember the kid in college who just didn't shave. Even though he couldn't grow good facial hair. Its like he was too busy downloading japanese anime to care about shaving. Thats why I really don't even characterize Morrison's "hair" as a mustache

by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 24, 2006 2:55 PM EST up reply actions

Morrison's

by a long shot. I got a friend who lived in the same hall with him last year at Gonzaga and he said he also didn't have regualr bathing habits either. Not that it has anything to do with how god-awful his mustache is, its just a FYI

by Trenchtown on Feb 24, 2006 6:17 PM EST up reply actions

Bathing habits

I heard him mention it in an interview the other day. He said that some question his hygeine, but he's fine with it.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Feb 24, 2006 6:22 PM EST up reply actions

I'd think so

It's everyone ELSE that has to be fine with it. He doesn't have to smell himself.

by drjayphd on Feb 25, 2006 3:08 AM EST up reply actions

Flashback to the 80's

What's wrong with Eric Hurley? He looks like he should be pitching in the 1980's.

I hate to say it, but I seem to base a lot of how I draft a player on what they look like. Maybe that's wrong, but I just can't draft players that don't look like baseball players.

by The Scout on Feb 24, 2006 3:14 PM EST reply actions

Rangers List

I'm a huge Rangers fan out of Spokane, WA (location of their short season team), and I've watched and met with most of the players on the list. Eric Hurley and John Danks impress me the most as far as "stuff" and age. I also think by next year John Mayberry Jr. will be an A-, because the way he was hitting the ball at the end of the '05 season, was the best I've ever seen. As far as the mustache goes, I've been to a few Gonzaga games, and by far Adam Morrison has the worst mustache in the history of sports, but that doesn't matter, because he's the best college player in the world. Go Gonzaga, and go Rangers... 2007 World Series champs!

by Mike McBride on Feb 24, 2006 3:24 PM EST reply actions

Hurley rating might be a year early

but I'm glad you think highly of him. Admittedly, I am biased, but I like John Danks. A lot.

by Ian Miller on Feb 24, 2006 3:25 PM EST reply actions

comments

i like the list alot...i can't belive josh rupe isn't up there though...another thing that surprises me is in all the top prospect lists i've been seeing lately, why is there no any love for anthony webster. he rarely strikes out, can play a good center feild with a good arm, and finally healthy again he hit .301-.346-.484 with 25 stolen bases to 5 caught stealing. the only real wekness to his game is that he cant hit lefties, but still i'm surprised at the lack of love....i think teagarden could be really special if he recovers well from the tommy john surgery...and does anybody know anything about zach phillips??

by yacck23 on Feb 24, 2006 3:36 PM EST reply actions

From Aaron Fitt's BA chat

"Aaron Fitt: Phillips is another lefty with three pitches. The Rangers signed him out of a JC as a draft and follow after taking him in the 23rd round in 2004, and he was impressive in the Arizona League. He pitches around 87-88 with his fastball, sometimes bumping 90, but he throws a lot of strikes an dis very deceptive, allowing him to rack up 73 strikeouts in 50 innings in rookie ball. He also mixes in a solid curveball and changeup that he goes to in any count. His delivery is compact and athletic, and his uppper body is strong. There's a lot to like there."

by Brett Perryman on Feb 24, 2006 5:19 PM EST up reply actions

arias

i don't have particularly strong feelings about hurley vs. the DVD trio, but shouldn't joaquin arias be considered a top prospect? the guy spent all of last year in AA at age 20 and hit 315/335/423. in 2004 he hit 300/344/396 in the cal league at age 19. he's very, very fast (16 triples and 50 SB the last two years), has been very healthy, and plays shortstop quite capably from everything i've heard. why is there no hanley-esque hype for this guy? it would be great if he hit for power or walked more, but given his combination of age relative to league, batting average and speed, i thought he'd be a bigger deal.

by jpahk on Feb 24, 2006 3:52 PM EST reply actions

Agreed

I think he's kind of an Erick Aybar-lite... he should push Young back to 2b in the near future. Of course, then you need to figure out what to do with Kinsler, but...

by jc3 on Feb 24, 2006 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

I concur....

...Arias should be no lower than 5th in this org....I think he has much better upside than Kinsler...and I like Arias a heck of a lot better than Hanley and even Aybar...

by daveh33 on Feb 24, 2006 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

Arias

has a mediocre eye (.340 or so OBP over A and AA) and mediocre power (.389 career minor league slugging)

Now, despite the fact that I could post 50 HRs in Texas's park, Arias simply isn't that great. Fast doesn't cut it in baseball -- do you really want your organization's #5 prospect to be a pinch runner and defensive sub?

Hanley Ramirez is a similar story. I don't think he's all that good, but at least he hits for better power and better OBP than Arias, and supposedly has every physical tool a baseball player supposedly needs...

by mroak89 on Feb 25, 2006 11:26 AM EST up reply actions

wow

What is with all the guys here judging how good these guys look? If I see a poll pop how asking who is the sexiest minot leaguer I may have to find a new site to visit.

by Josh @ Minor League Ball on Feb 24, 2006 3:52 PM EST reply actions

Afraid it's catching?

Join the 21st century, dude. Or don't.

by Flynn Blake on Feb 24, 2006 3:59 PM EST up reply actions

what?

What does the 21st centruy have to do with anything? Call me crazy but I don't look at a picture of a baseball player and think, wow he is real cute. Or wow what a bad stash.

If that is what you are in into go for it. I was just making a joke.

by Josh @ Minor League Ball on Feb 24, 2006 4:11 PM EST up reply actions

So was he

by mroak89 on Feb 25, 2006 11:27 AM EST up reply actions

Take it easy

I'm not saying I draft a player depending on how "cute" he is or if he is "sexy."

All I'm saying is that if a player looks like he should be watching NASCAR with his confederate flag hat twisted backards bouncing his 2 month old dirty baby on his knee, I might not be as inclined to draft him.

by The Scout on Feb 24, 2006 4:13 PM EST up reply actions

Well ...

maybe that's another version of what "Moneyball" referred to when some scouts would say a kid has the "good face."

by Flynn Blake on Feb 24, 2006 4:32 PM EST up reply actions

Hey,

I am a firm believer in the good face. In dollar sign on the muscle they talk about scouts and nine times out of ten when they watch the team get off the bus they can tell who they were sent to scout before they see them do anything. The good face is athletic presence and although not all players have it, a lot of the do.

by Trenchtown on Feb 24, 2006 6:20 PM EST up reply actions

true

this is true...so not only do they get the ability, they get the good looks too...i remember now why i hate all pro athletes...

by Rob Castellano on Feb 25, 2006 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

Botts Fly

Opinions on Jason Botts? Anyone seen him play?

by The Colonel on Feb 24, 2006 4:39 PM EST reply actions

Re: Botts

I've seen him play about 10 times at AA Frisco, and was fairly high on the guy. He's got some minor holes in his swing (as you might expect of someone 6'6", 260) but generally makes good contact.

His power took off in his first full season in the Texas League, though I'm not sure he'll be more than a 25-30 homer guy in the majors. Good, but not great plate discipline; probably will walk about 60-70 times against 110-120 K's in a full season.

Botts also runs very well for a guy built like an NFL tight end. I saw him steal several bases, though his speed seemed to work better on the basepaths than while in the field. He's passable at first base and left field, but looked pretty brutal the couple times I saw him play right. I would agree with the reports that his best position is DH.

I don't think Botts is quite as good a player overall as Travis Hafner, but he's a little more athletic, and should have a good major league career. Whether it's in Texas, though, I'm not so sure...

by RCCook on Feb 25, 2006 9:21 AM EST up reply actions

Thanks Cap'n Cook!

by The Colonel on Feb 25, 2006 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

andrew miller

andrew miller will be the next big pitching prospect with ugly facial hair.

http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a77/dsanford/UNC%20vs%20Seton%20Hall/Miller10.jpg

by npurcell on Feb 24, 2006 4:58 PM EST reply actions

ugh.

I see why Girardi decided to have a no facial hair rule, kids these days.

by Trenchtown on Feb 24, 2006 6:21 PM EST up reply actions

Haha

Very intimidating ... not.

by Flynn Blake on Feb 24, 2006 6:49 PM EST up reply actions

re

Those are some aggressive grades for guys who weren't any good in AA (and in this organization which has shown little to no ability to develop pitchers.) I know that BP valuation article got ripped to shreds on BTF, but when these guys get the same grade as a near sure bet like Papelbon, something seems very off.

by bootsy on Feb 24, 2006 6:13 PM EST reply actions

re:

Maybe it's because Jon Papelbon is two, three and even four years older than the DVD's. Papelbon was a decent middle reliever at Mississippi State when he was John Danks's age.

by Ian Miller on Feb 24, 2006 8:27 PM EST up reply actions

re

Yes, that's why I referred to the valuation article. Did you happen to catch it? Those guys have age on Papelbon, but given the stagnation and injury rate of young pitchers, especially guys in that organization, and guys who haven't suceeded in AA yet, Papelbon is probably twice as likely to pan out as any one of them, and that's not reflected anywhere in the grade.

by bootsy on Feb 24, 2006 9:05 PM EST up reply actions

The DVD's AA numbers

One thing to keep in mind when looking at the AA numbers for DVD: Frisco's pitching coach, Steve Luebber, was fired shortly after they were all promoted to AA. The Rangers then told the interim pitching coach to have the three throw about 80% fastballs for the rest of the season.

So while their numbers don't look all that great, Texas League hitters may have had a little help. Knowing that the other pitcher's going to throw a fastball nearly every time makes things a little bit easier. Even so, Diamond had a .249 BAA; Volquez a .258 mark.

Diamond may have also been a bit distracted the last couple weeks of the season, as his family is from New Orleans, and some of them lost their homes to Katrina. He was allowed to leave the team a few days early, and took a truck full of supplies to help with the relief efforts. I've had the opportunity to talk with him on a couple of occasions, and he's a great guy. Nice as can be in person, but a real mean streak on the mound.

by RCCook on Feb 25, 2006 9:33 AM EST up reply actions

re:

I don't know which valuation article you're referring to, so I guess I didn't catch it.

Saying Papelbon is "twice as likely to pan out" is a bit of a stretch, in my mind. Pitchers get hurt at his age, too.

Considering there are only eight possible grades(since I don't think John gives out A+'s) to cover the hundreds of prospects he puts in his book every year, the exact same grade doesn't necessarily indicate the exact same value.

by Ian Miller on Feb 25, 2006 10:35 AM EST up reply actions

re

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4750

Worth a read, if nothing else.

25 year old guy past the injury nexus with a healthy shoulder and has already pitched well in MLB, compared to early 20s guys right in the injury nexus and who haven't pitched well in AA yet, I'd wager the 2/1 ratio is pretty accurate. IDK, somebody should do a study.

FTR, I'm not knocking these kids. They have great upside, and they're progressing fine.

by bootsy on Feb 25, 2006 4:33 PM EST up reply actions

Hurley's Porn Stache

I personally think that John put Hurley at the top so that he could put up Hurley's porn stache picture. Besides, shouldn't ridiculous facial hair add value to prospects?

by jspearlj1 on Feb 24, 2006 6:13 PM EST reply actions

Yes

Because they are more worried about pitching than what the ladies think. That's FOCUS.

by The Colonel on Feb 24, 2006 11:56 PM EST up reply actions

Really?

Explain Dustin Hermanson.

by drjayphd on Feb 25, 2006 3:09 AM EST up reply actions

Webster

So, why did Webster fall to a "C"? I agree with this, incidentally, as I'm not a believer in his glove.

by Der Komminsksar on Feb 25, 2006 3:34 PM EST reply actions

webster

I decided that I overrated him a bit given that he hasn't played Double-A yet.

by John Sickels on Feb 25, 2006 4:58 PM EST up reply actions

rashad eldridge

no love for R. Eldridge's .294/.400/.459 at AAA? At 24, I think he was. I know he's not a top-flight guy, but not even in the top 20? seems like a guy who can be a major league contributor, no?

is he terrible defensively?

by scooter on Feb 26, 2006 9:30 AM EST reply actions

actually, at age 23

according to the baseball cube, he was 23 -- raked at AA for a few ABs, as well, at the start of the season I guess. didn't do much in previous years.

still, pretty good numbers at age 23 to just ignore.

by scooter on Feb 26, 2006 9:38 AM EST reply actions