Cleveland Indians Top 20 Prospects

Jeremy Sowers
CLEVELAND INDIANS TOP 20 PROSPECTS
- Andy Marte, 3B, Grade A
- Jeremy Sowers, LHP, B+
- Fernando Cabrera, RHP, B+
- Stephen Head, 1B, B+
- Brad Snyder, OF, B
- Ryan Garko, 1B-C, B
- Trevor Crowe, OF, B
- John Drennan, OF, B
- Adam Miller, RHP, B-
- Andrew Brown, RHP, B-
- Chuck Lofgren, LHP, B-
- Ryan Mulhern, 1B, B-
- Edward Mujica, RHP, B-
- Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, B-
- Kelly Shoppach, C, C+
- Mike Aubrey, 1B, C+
- Fausto Carmona, RHP, C+
- Tony Sipp, LHP, C+
- Generalissimo Ben Francisco, OF, C+
- Nick Weglarz, 1B, C+ (grade change from B- in book)
Some of the ratings above will be controversial, particularly Adam Miller at Grade B-. Baseball America still rates him as the top pitching prospect in the system and one of the best in the game. This is true if he is healthy. I had horrible reports about him last summer, and while he did OK in the Arizona Fall League, I want additional proof that he is fully recovered from his elbow trouble. We will keep close track of Miller as the season progresses.
Mike Aubrey, if his back is OK, would move up several notches. I'm not a big Fausto Carmona fan.
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53 comments
Comments
Franklin Gutierrez
by CJ on Feb 22, 2006 1:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
John's book
by Flynn Blake on Feb 22, 2006 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
gut
by John Sickels on Feb 22, 2006 1:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wow, they are loaded...
If I was them I would move one or two of those corner infielders or outfielders for some depth at 2B and SS.
But all in all, they will be good for years and years to come if only half of these guys pan out!
Joe D.
by JoeD on Feb 22, 2006 2:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not to nitpick...
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Feb 22, 2006 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the word you are looking for
As in "What is a plethora?....."
by sasquatch83 on Feb 22, 2006 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
John
by williethekid20 on Feb 22, 2006 2:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
criteria for photos
- not something someone will sue me for posting.
- I prefer action shots to poses.
- If I can't find something usable that won't get me in trouble, I use a baseball card.
by John Sickels on Feb 22, 2006 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
criteria for photos
by rojosoto on Feb 22, 2006 9:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
dearth
by JoeD on Feb 22, 2006 4:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Sipp
by DocNo on Feb 22, 2006 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sipp is actually in Spring Training Camp with
Hello everyone,
Yes, Sipp is moving quickly - he is ticketed to start the year at AA Akron, but the Indians think that highly of him to invite him to the ML Spring Training Camp this spring with only two professional seasons under his belt.
Another reason why I think Sipp might deserve a B- or even a B grade, though I can understand if John wants to see more of him before deciding on a higher grade, since he's only been in the Indians' organization for two years. Just my 2 cents on that! :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Feb 22, 2006 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was
by Brett Perryman on Feb 22, 2006 7:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree! My disagreements about the grades!
Yes, I agree with you. I thought Sipp would be a B- or a B based on the quick progress he has made in two professional seasons as a 45th-round draft choice.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Feb 22, 2006 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Please ignore the title of my last post!
Please ignore the "My disagreements about the grades!" part of my post - I was going to add a few more comments about some disagreements about the grades, but then decided not to because the post was longer and the disagreements I have about the grades are mostly minor, like a B- or B for a C+, etc. Nothing that is very drastic.
Please excuse the oversight on my part.
Take care and have a great day! :-)
by indiansfan on Feb 22, 2006 8:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agree
by natsfan2005 on Feb 23, 2006 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sorry for the typo
by natsfan2005 on Feb 23, 2006 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Crowe
Of course, the ideal scenario is Crowe being as good as you think and ready for 2007, making Gutierrez expendable (for 2B-ready player?) and Snyder in right. But that's just wishful thinking.
by DocNo on Feb 22, 2006 4:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
clarification
by DocNo on Feb 22, 2006 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Crowe
yet Crowe's name was brought up during the winter and at that point i think Shapiro mentioned there were no current plans to move Crowe back to second...
i hope they would - the system is thin in middle infield talent - and Crowe, if he shows even the slightest bit of talent as a leadoff hitting 2b, can move thru the system quickly
by ACrank on Feb 23, 2006 10:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Carmona
I think Gutierrez should still be in the top 10, but there have been a number of the rankings and grades I've disagreed with quite strongly so far. I guess we'll see how accurate Sickels was in due time.
by ultxmxpx on Feb 22, 2006 5:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
carmona
Gutierrez is a great athlete but I have serious doubts about his bat.
by John Sickels on Feb 22, 2006 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Carmona and Radke!
I looked up Radke's career stats and they look somewhat similar to Carmona's.
Radke was a bit better in terms of H/IP and The Baseball Cube doesn't show Radke's HR rate in the Minors, but with the Twins, he gives up over a H/IP, his K rate is lower than one K per 9 IP in both the Minors and the Majors, his HR rate is high in the Majors (20-30 HRs for around 200 IP,) yet he's still an effective #2 guy for the Twins (was their #1 until Santana took over a few years ago.)
Like I mentioned before, it wouldn't surprise me if Carmona followed Radke's career path, except with better velocity.
Plus, he's only 21, so his chances of learning how to strike more people out is certainly possible. There were complaints about Colon not striking out enough people with the Indians at one time as well for the stuff he had. Even now, his strikeout rate has fallen from 2000-2001, his best strikeout years, yet he's still quite effective getting groundball outs, which is supposedly Carmona's speciality, much like Radke's as well.
Plus, if Carmona is only the #3 or #4 starter on the Indians, I think he will do quite well in that role as he won't have as much pressure on him as Radke had with the Twins being their ace or their #2.
Personally, I'd give him a B- or even a B, especially since his walk rate and control are quite good and he's only 21 years old. He still needs to improve his H/IP and K/IP as you suggested, but did have less than a H/IP at AAA in 2005 and has also done it a few other times in his Minor League career. If he can maintain the good command, he still may be able to succeed even without a high K/IP rate like Radke, Byrd, and other similar pitchers have done.
Just my opinion and 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Feb 22, 2006 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
radke
radke is effective because he locates his two-seamer and never walks anybody, not because he generates ground balls. (he also gets a lot of help from the twins defense, which has been quite good for several yeras.)
all that having been said--i like carmona quite a bit. unlike radke, he really is a GB pitcher, which works to his advantage. unfortunately, his K rate is quite a bit lower than radke's; radke usually manages to hover a bit below league average, whereas carmona was way below that.
i think your comp is actually to the wrong twins pitcher. if carmona is going to succeed, it'll be as more of a carlos silva type.
by jpahk on Feb 22, 2006 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the clarification, jpahk!
Thanks for the clarification - thinking about it, I guess Radke is more of a flyball pitcher. It's a little amazing he's had the success he has had since he never had overpowering stuff. Probably his low walk rate has enabled him to succeed at the level he has.
Good point about Silva - I didn't even think of him.
Looking at his stats, I think it's an even better comparison than Radke, in terms of stats and where Carmona would likely pitch in the Indians' rotation - as a #3 or #4 starter. Plus, if I recall correctly, Silva actually reached 95-96 MPH at one time, though he usually pitches in the low-90s. Very similar to Carmona.
Good call, jpahk! :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Feb 22, 2006 7:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice list - my thoughts!
Thanks John for the list - great job with it. :-)
Some thoughts:
1. I can understand why Adam Miller was dropped in terms of his grade. I thought maybe a B or B+ because his stuff is still there and since I figure he was probably either an A or A- before the injury and after his great 2004 season. But, that's splitting hairs - a B- is understandable.
Hopefully, he recovers and pitches as well as he did in 2004 because 2005 seemed to be a lost year from him - miss Spring Training, work his way back in, stuff isn't back to par, finally gets his stuff back, season ends, time off, AFL action, finally gets himself going towards the end. It just seemed like a big roller coaster ride of him playing and not playing, which probably threw off his timing and didn't help in terms of showing his consistent, dominant self from 2004, along with the elbow injury.
2. I can understand Aubrey's grade as well, and personally, I'm less optimistic about Aubrey's chances of staying healthy than Miller's because I heard he is being treated for a lower-back issue in Spring Training just yesterday. I don't think it's the same problem as last year, but it's another problem with his lower back and he is getting treatment for it.
If Aubrey can produce close to what he was expected to produce, I'd be quite happy and consider it a bonus. But personally, I think Garko, Mulhern, and Head have better shots of manning 1B for the Indians for the next 5 years or so. Hopefully, Aubrey will get into that mix, but I'm not confident about his overcoming the back problem.
- I'm surprised Gutierrez only got a C - from the reports I've read and heard, he's made progress in his strike zone judgment and has put together better at-bats. We need to see more to know whether Gutierrez can sustain it, but I thought he might get a B- or a B.
- I know many are not fond of Carmona's low strikeout rate, but I would think his being only 21, his very good control, and his success at every level to this point would net him a B- or a B. Personally, it would not surprise me if he became a Brad Radke with better velocity - I've heard he can reach the mid-90s, which Radke never did. I'd be happy if he became a good #3 or #4 starter. Plus, at only 21, he still could learn how to increase his strikeout rate.
- I take it that you are being cautious with Sipp's grade? Granted, he needs to prove his ability over a longer period, but I think he's off to a very good start. It kind of surprises me that the Indians don't leave him as a starter, especially since he has incorporated the changeup into his repertoire and has had very good results with it. Especially if LHP Rafael Perez becomes a reliever, which is possible. They also have LHP Chris Cooper who looks to be able to get lefties out as well.
6. If I may ask, why did you change Weglarz's grade from a B- to a C+? From what I heard and read, I know he struggled with breaking balls, but many are high on him once he becomes adjusted. Plus, he was only 17 years old, which many would probably consider young even for the Appalachian League. He also hailed from a high school in Ontario, Canada, where the competition is not likely at the level of the southern U.S., so I can see why he struggled with breaking stuff in his first go-around in the Appy League.
I was just curious on why you lowered his grade from a B- to a C+.
7. I like the name "Generalissimo" Ben Francisco. Nice touch! :-)
Overall, nice work on the list. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Feb 22, 2006 5:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
So who is "ranked" higher ...
by StickRat on Feb 22, 2006 10:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gutierrez
Adam Miller-Dan Meyer was an A- like Miller before this season, and both had injury wasted seasons. But he still got a B- to Meyers C+, which makes sense, but going higher than that is pushing it.
Sipp-Grade seems about right. Great numbers, but they were at high A as a 22 year old reliever (who admittedly would probably move fast), but he also showed control problems as a reliever.
Weglarz-I would think a B- for him is too high as well. His numbers stunk, but he's 17. But the fact is his numbers stink, and that just doesn't merit a B-, which would be the same grade as Adam Miller. Also, coming from crappy competition would probably go against him, as it could just be a fluke that he was relaly good.
by ohad on Feb 23, 2006 9:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gutierrez
by The Colonel on Feb 23, 2006 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sipp & Weglarz!
Sipp - his walk rate did increase as a reliever, but it's such a small sample size of 17 appearances out of the pen (sound familiar? :-) that I don't think it would be a long-term problem, especially when you see he had great command as a starter. He hadn't been a reliever since his college days 2-3 years ago. It probably took him some time to get used to the role again.
I still think a B- or a B would be more appropriate, especially with his strikeout numbers. Granted, it was in A ball, but he was a college product, so it's not like he spent 2-3 years in Rookie ball. It was only his second professional season.
The Indians obviously think very highly of him - he was invited to the Major League Spring Training Camp after only two professional seasons. That in itself should warrant at least a B- grade.
As for Weglarz, you make good points, but then how do you account for Drennen getting a B? Drennen hit 8 HRs, but Weglarz pretty much matched or outdid him in other areas, was a year younger than Drennen, and came from a cold-weather climate? Drennen played HS ball in San Diego, so it's reasonable to presume that he should be more advanced, yet his numbers aren't really that much better than Weglarz's (in fact, some of his numbers, like his walk rate, are worse than Weglarz's.)
As for Gutierrez, he definitely should be on the list. I think the biggest problem with Gutierrez is his lack of power - I see him hitting maybe 20 HRs eventually, but for now, 10-15 HRs might be his max.
Plus, many people here are forgetting he did have a wrist injury for most of 2004 and was still recovering from the surgery in early 2005. That's why he couldn't play the outfield in the early part of 2004 and was relegated to DH duties only.
However, around the AA All-Star Break, he disappeared and did not return after that. I remember because I listened to several Aeros games on the radio and people kept bringing up, "when will Gutierrez return?"
Granted, that doesn't entirely explain his lack of offensive production, but it does explain some of it and hint that he is probably a better hitter than that. Only a full healthy season will let us know for sure.
Personally, my grades for the Indians' prospects you mentioned would be as follows,
Miller - B - He didn't have arm surgery like Meyer, plus Miller is roughly 3 years younger than Meyer. Plus, Miller, despite not having his good stuff back after his return, still had very good command. Meyer had horrible command problems, along with the loss in velocity. Therefore, I think putting Miller two slots ahead of Meyer is certainly reasonable.
Sipp - B- - As I mentioned, he hadn't relieved in 2-3 years, the sample size is way too small to say his control wasn't good as a reliever (17 relief appearances - that's roughly 2 weeks worth of pitching,) plus his strikeout numbers are outstanding at all three levels he pitched and his H/IP are all very good at all three levels.
Plus, the Indians invited him to the Major League Spring Training Camp - obviously, there's something there they liked. They didn't have to invite him to Spring Training Camp, especially for a 45th-Round draft choice with only two professional seasons under his belt. The B- grade is warranted in my opinion.
Gutierrez - C+ - I'll give you this one, though I am still encouraged by his improving plate discipline, even if it's a small sample size. Combined with his tools and his young age, he should definitely make this list.
Some members of LetsGoTribe, the Indians Blog, are wondering how Snyder can rate so high when his plate discipline is actually worse than Gutierrez's? Granted, his power numbers are better, but his BB/K rate isn't as good as Gutierrez's and his defense isn't as good as Gutierrez's (not the same range or arm.)
Therefore, I think a B- isn't totally out of the question, especially when Snyder received a B.
Weglarz - I think he deserves a B-, especially when Drennen received a B.
Drennen:
168 ABs, 40 H, 8 HRs, 29 RBIs, 18 BBs, 37 Ks,
.238/.325/.435
Weglarz:
147 ABs, 34 H, 2 HRs, 13 RBIs, 17 BBs, 42 Ks,
.231/.313/.347
Except for the HRs and RBIs, which affects the slugging percentage, the other numbers are comparable, and in the BB rate, Weglarz's was actually slightly better than Drennen, who had a reputation of advanced hitting and plate discipline when he was drafted.
Combine that with the fact that Weglarz is from a cold climate and Drennen is from a warm climate, along with the fact that Weglarz is a year YOUNGER than Drennen, and I think John's initial grade of a B- for Weglarz is the most appropriate.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Feb 23, 2006 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Everyone enjoys a little "Head"
by The Rocc on Feb 22, 2006 5:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
"head"
by pedrophile on Feb 22, 2006 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Head does have legitimate power...
but it's too early to tell exactly how much. He was only at High-A for around 200 ABs, where he hit 4 HRs.
I don't know if he will begin again at High-A or if he will start at AA, though if Aubrey is healthy, he would probably be at 1B for the AA Akron Aeros.
I've heard that he can sometimes get pull-happy, which the Indians will probably try to correct and get him to use the whole field more.
It will be interesting to see how he progresses.
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Feb 22, 2006 7:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
J.D. Martin
by mckeeno on Feb 22, 2006 7:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Martin had TJ surgery this offseason!
Unfortunately, Martin had Tommy John surgery this past offseason and will be out either most or all of the 2006 season.
He's still young enough to bounce back from it, but due to the surgery, it's likely John left him off the list for this reason.
Hopefully, Martin can come back and handle AA like he did in the first half of 2005.
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Feb 22, 2006 8:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brad Snyder
Thanks
by RJB7 on Feb 22, 2006 7:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Snyder!
I've heard two different stories on Snyder - most of them say that he will start at AAA to begin 2006, along with Gutierrez and Francisco.
Personally, and I've heard this also, that he should start at AA Akron to start 2006 because his BB/K rate needs some improvement and I feel he is being pushed too quickly. Plus, he is 24 for the 2006 season - they could afford to have him spend the first half of the 2006 season at AA Akron to improve his BB/K rate before moving him up to AAA Buffalo for the second half of 2006.
You have Gutierrez, Francisco, and likely Mulhern (who I heard is shifting to the OF because of Garko, Head, and Aubrey at 1B) who are ahead of Snyder on the development curve, not to mention Sizemore, Michaels, and Blake in the Majors. You also have Jason Cooper at AAA Buffalo as well, so they could afford to be a bit more patient with Snyder to make sure he is ready for AAA.
I'd rather wait to make sure Snyder is ready before sending him to AAA. Just my 2 cents on that! :-)
Regarding his potential, I think he will be capable of hitting 20-25 HRs, maybe around 30 some years if he fully develops his offensive approach. I think he will hit around .270-.280, maybe approach .290-.300 if he can improve his strike zone discipline. He might be able to steal 10-20 SBs in time as well.
Supposedly, his range is decent to good and his arm is very good. So, overall, he has most, if not all the tools, scouts look for. It's just a question of consistently utilizing those tools to the best of his abilities and getting more experience.
Most think he will be ready by 2007 to take over in the OF. Personally, I'd rather wait until the 2nd half of 2007 or even the beginning of 2008 to be sure, since his BB/K rate at AA was not good (25 BBs/94 Ks in 304 AA ABs.)
Either way, I hope Snyder develops to his full potential and does very well for the Indians for many years to come.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Feb 22, 2006 8:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
correction
According to BA:
"While he has the speed and range to play center field, his tools are best suited for right. He has average arm strength that plays up thanks to his accuracy and instincts."
Just a slight correction.
by ohad on Feb 23, 2006 9:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, ohad! :-)
Thanks for the correction. I was off slightly, but not by that much. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Feb 23, 2006 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Snyder
And props to John for his ranking of Gutierrez. I got a good look at him in the Eastern League, and he just didn't look like much of a player.
I'll also go out on a limb and call Stephen Head overrated. I saw him play a few games in the Carolina League late in the season, and I didn't see anything that got me very excited. I think his power and bat speed have been exaggerated due to his freakishly hot start in low A ball.
by Royals Corner on Feb 23, 2006 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the feedback, Royals Corner!
Thanks for the feedback on Snyder - I thought his arm was better than average. In fact, I think I remember someone mentioning that game in Mesa in another thread - it may have been you. :-)
Like I mentioned before, I think Gutierrez's biggest problem is his lack of power. If he's in center, it won't be much of a problem, but if he's a corner outfielder, then that will be more of a problem. I'd like to see him stay healthy in 2006 and have a full year at AAA Buffalo before having a better idea of what type of player he really is.
I also agree on being more cautious with Head - I think at best he should get a B, and possibly a B-. He wasn't at SS-A or High-A for very long and his BB/K rate could use some improvement at the High-A level (8 BBs, 33 Ks in 203 ABs.)
I think he has potential, but I think it's too early to tell how high a ceiling he has based on 37 SS-A ABs and 203 High-A ABs. Just my 2 cents on that. :-)
Take care and have a great weekend!
by indiansfan on Feb 24, 2006 1:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mulhern ahead of Snyder on the developmental curve
by ACrank on Feb 23, 2006 10:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's an indiansfan marathon and you're all invited
by abbreviatedman on Feb 22, 2006 11:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, abbreviatedman!
Thanks, abbreviatedman, for the intro! :-)
Refreshments will be served as well, LOL! :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Feb 22, 2006 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So
by jahs34 on Feb 23, 2006 10:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
and thats a point Mr. Sickels made last year
by ACrank on Feb 23, 2006 10:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True, though Miller likely was before the injury!
That point is true, though Adam Miller was certainly an A or A- before the injury, and that's the only reason he's not an A or A- now, so technically, your point is true, but not because no one in the Indians organization doesn't have the ability.
Miller's is just "masked" because of the injury. If he can overcome it and get back on track, he has a good chance of reclaiming the A or A- ranking.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great weekend!
by indiansfan on Feb 24, 2006 1:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
hello,
by Isisaston on Dec 20, 2006 1:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs











