Keeper League Trade - Should I take it?

by historypeats on Feb 20, 2006 3:05 AM EST Comment 17 comments

OK, I'm in a 14-team keeper league that's reasonably competitive. This is our second year in operation, and we got to keep seven guys from last year - which means that our draft's first seven rounds are already done. Also important to consider: We use OBP instead of AVG.

I traded Mark Loretta and Kevin Mench for Jason Bay at the break last year, and traded Bill Hall for Grady Sizemore earlier. These guys were going to be two of my seven keepers.

I've gotten an offer from one owner in my league of a second-rounder (probably the 23rd pick), Vlad Guerrero, and Johnny Damon for Bay, Sizemore, and Juan Pierre. I'm not necessarily planning on keeping Pierre because I have 15 keeper candidates and his OBP left a LOT to be desired last year, but Sizemore and Bay are a big part of my plans.

On the one hand, it's Vlad Guerrero, and Damon could experience a boost in numbers with the short porch in his new stadium's right field. On the other hand, Damon's not going to hit as many HRs as Sizemore or steal as many bases, and this is a keeper league - Vlad's getting a little older, and he's had injury troubles recently.

I'm leaning towards rejecting the deal. I have the 12th and 17th picks, then don't pick again until the 40th pick, so the 23rd pick would be useful...but Sizemore and Bay are going to be really valuable if they play at the same level as their second halves last year.

Any advice? Is there any compelling reason I should take the deal?

The other thing is that I have a bunch of keeper prospects, and while I think I've chosen which seven to keep, I'd appreciate advice. Here's who I have to choose from:

Jason Bay
Jeremy Bonderman
Matt Cain
Carlos Delgado
Felix Hernandez
Bobby Jenks
Paul Konerko
Francisco Liriano
Bengie Molina
Juan Pierre
Johan Santana
Grady Sizemore
Rickie Weeks
David Wright
Michael Young

Thanks in advance! EDIT: Here are some stat comparisons via Baseball Reference. Sizemore and Bay are the first group, Vlad and Damon are the second.
REGULAR BATTING:
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
2005 22 CLE AL 158 640 111 185 37 11 22 81 22 10 52 132 .289 .348 .484 310 5 2 1 7 17
2005 26 PIT NL 162 599 110 183 44 6 32 101 21 1 95 142 .306 .402 .559 335 0 7 9 6 12
2005 29 LAA AL 141 520 95 165 29 2 32 108 13 1 61 48 .317 .394 .565 294 0 5 26 8 17
2005 31 BOS AL 148 624 117 197 35 6 10 75 18 1 53 69 .316 .366 .439 274 0 9 3 2 5
SPECIAL BATTING:
Year Ag Tm Lg PA Outs RC RC/27 OWP BA *lgBA OBP *lgOBP SLG *lgSLG OPS *lgOPS*OPS+ psOPS SB%
2005 22 CLE AL 706 489 106 5.85 | .289 .261| .348 .323| .484 .414| .832 .737| 125 68%
2005 26 PIT NL 707 436 134 8.30 | .306 .270| .402 .340| .559 .430| .961 .770| 148 95%
2005 29 LAA AL 594 378 114 8.14 | .317 .263| .394 .326| .565 .418| .959 .743| 156 92%
2005 31 BOS AL 688 442 101 6.17 | .316 .269| .366 .332| .439 .427| .805 .759| 113 94%

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Comments

Hmm.

I would probably say no to the trade.
Pierre > Damon, IMO
Bay and Sizemore = Vlad and 23rd pick right now, but as you said, Vlad's getting older.

by Justin & Joe on Feb 20, 2006 3:11 AM EST reply actions

At this point

The trade lines up more as a Guerrero for Bay, Damon for Sizemore, Pierre for 23rd-pick type deal.

There are a couple of other factors in my keeper strategy as well. For example, I have a bunch of Brewers fans in my league, and there's no way Weeks will be available at #12 if I let him go. My keeper choices would be a lot easier if no one in my league had allegiances to specific teams, but you gotta play the hand you're dealt.

by historypeats on Feb 20, 2006 3:26 AM EST up reply actions

Don't do the trade

I'd definitely keep these 7 players.

Johan Santana
Grady Sizemore
Rickie Weeks
David Wright
Michael Young
Jason Bay
Felix Hernandez

Maybe you could keep Delgado or Konerko instead of Weeks but similar players should be around at pick 12 or 17. If you don't keep Weeks, you'll never see him on your team ever again.

by LizardKing51 on Feb 20, 2006 5:03 AM EST reply actions

Those were the guys I was intending to keep

It's just really hard to let both of my big power threats go, as well as my SB specialist. On the other hand, Konerko's not in a contract year anymore, Delgado's still in a cavernous stadium, and the Cubs' offense should be weaker than last years' Marlins.

by historypeats on Feb 20, 2006 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

Hmm

On the surface, this deal doesn't sound great, but the fact that you're facing a real crunch in terms of keeper prospects makes the deal considerably more appealing. Vlad might be 30 now, but he's still one of the 3-5 best players in fantasy baseball and no prospect can match that.

If I'm reading this right, this trade would allow you to keep an extra player on your roster. I suppose it depends on how highly you think of one of your young pitchers (Bonderman, Cain, Liriano). If the trade can make a difference between keeping and losing a potential future fantasy star, that's a pretty important factor to take into consideration.

by mrkupe on Feb 20, 2006 7:15 AM EST reply actions

I don't get to keep the extra player

...because I wasn't going to keep Pierre.

by historypeats on Feb 20, 2006 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

Jason Bay way under-rated

Jason Bay may be the #1 fantasy OF this year. When you combine average, hr's, sb's, OBP, rbi's and every other statistical category - Jason Bay is going to be one of the top 3 fantasy OF's this year. He had comparable stats to Vlad last year plus the SB's.

While the trades you made last year would indicate those you are dealing with have no idea what they are doing - this trade would indicate that you have gotten a case of amnesia if you make it.

Damon may be good for the next year or 2 but Sizemore can be good for the next 10 and their stats will not be that much different.

Overall - there is no reason to make this trade. If someone offered you Manny for Bay/Pierre - then there might be some value in trading away those 2 to get the additional HR's and RBI's but the deal you have been offered makes no sense in my estimation.

by slickwdb on Feb 20, 2006 8:02 AM EST reply actions

Pirates

On the one hand, I'm gun-shy about Bay continuing his success in Pittsburgh because his supporting cast isn't the best. On the other hand, he's done it twice already...

by historypeats on Feb 20, 2006 11:58 AM EST up reply actions

And

His supporting cast is improving. Having Casey, Doumit with some experience under his belt, Randa, Burnitz and an improving Castillo - this line-up looks to be far stronger than last year giving Bay additional protection that he did not have last year.

by slickwdb on Feb 20, 2006 3:22 PM EST up reply actions

I keep Bay

While the chance to have Vlad is appealing, I think Bay goes crazy this season. It won't kill him to have Casey's .375 OBP in front of him in the lineup (remember last year the next closest OBP in frequent lineups with Bay's .408 was about .330).

I guess there is some risk in Sizemore vs Damon, but Sizemore and the Cleveland offense should improve. Damon certainly isn't going to be hurt hitting in front of Jeter, Arod, and Sheff, but last year he hit in front of Manny and Ortiz so how much of an improvement can you expect from a 30+ year old outfielder?

I think you Gillick and be happy with what you have, but good luck.

"Strikeouts are good...groundballs are better. Home runs are okay...but walks SUCK!" Mike Caldwell

by Torncuff on Feb 20, 2006 8:33 AM EST reply actions

You make a good point about Damon

The appeal there was that he'd be hitting atop that Yankees' offense, but he was already atop the modern-day Murderer's Row of the BoSox for two years (even though last year's squad was weaker). I guess I can't really expect that much improvement.

by historypeats on Feb 20, 2006 11:59 AM EST up reply actions

big park adjustment for Damon

His BA should take a beating this year just from park effects.

And he had a BABIP much higher than his career numbers last year, which will probably come back as well. I would not be surprised to see him hit in the 260's this year. And end up being moved down to #9 in the Yanks lineup.

by cdamon on Feb 20, 2006 8:55 PM EST up reply actions

Never had Jeter

Damon never had somebody like Jeter hitting behind him.

The last time Jeter had a leadoff hitter like Damon in front of him it was Chuck Knoblauch and they created havoc.

Jeter is a great #2 hitter. He's great at hit-and-run, he's great at hitting behind the runner.

I would be shocked if Damon hit .260. I've seen hitters who are a lot worse, not even come close too hitting .260. He's too patient of a hitter to have a BA that low.

by The Scout on Feb 20, 2006 11:51 PM EST up reply actions

Hell no on that one

Bay=Vlad, IMO. Bay is just sick, and he gives SB's as well.

Sizemore=Damon. Sizemore hits homers, takes some walks, steals bases, and should be a great outfielder. Damon will be declining soon, and won't be good for more than a little power and average.

Pierre doesn't equal the 23 pick, but Bay and Sizemore should get better, while Vlad and Damon will be declining sooner. This is a keeper league after all.

I say you just pursue a trade of Pierre to someone else. Somewhere in the 30 area should do.

As for who you should keep.

Bay
Hernandez
Santana
Wright
Weeks (Will be among top second baseman. As LK51 said, you'll never see him again on your team).
Sizemore

The last place is a tough one. You could go Michael Young. But i can also see you going with Cain/Liriano. Konerko and Delgado types you should be able to pick with your first or second pick.

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad on Feb 20, 2006 9:03 AM EST reply actions

I think I have to go M. Young

Because of the SS situation in my league. Remember, the first seven rounds of our draft are already done. There's no way Young lasts past the second pick if I let him go, and the presence of the Brewers fans means I can't get all sleepery with J.J. Hardy or something.

by historypeats on Feb 20, 2006 12:01 PM EST up reply actions

OF situation

Does your league require you to have a LF, CF, RF or can you have 3 OFers?

Unless you have to have a CFer, I would not protect Sizemore and package him with Pierre and Bay for Guerrero and the pick. Given how few guys you can protect, making moves each year where you can consolidate down to the 7 best players you can while accumulating other teams picks (so that you have several early choices amongst some very good draftees) seems to be the best approach to take. I would consider Delgado or Cain as my 7th protected player.

by rojosoto on Feb 20, 2006 4:31 PM EST reply actions