Boston??????????

by marchmadness on Feb 20, 2006 5:36 PM EST Comment 35 comments

I just don't see how everyone can think that Boston is going to have a better record from 2006-2009. They are going to have a lot of questions at multiple postitions this year. I think that the Yankees have better players at more positions than the Red Sox do.
1b - Boston - Youkilis
Yanks - Giambi
-The yankees obviously have the advantage here, especially if we were judging on pure hitting. I think Giambi is going to build on his second half performance from last year and have a productive year in 2006.

2b - Boston - Loretta
Yanks - Cano
-The Red Sox have the advantage here with a veteran presence in Loretta, but I like Cano and think he is going to become a top of the line second baseman in the near future.

3b - Boston - Lowell
Yanks - ARod
-Major advantage here for the Yankees in the AL reigning MVP. Lowell is a question mark, but could redeem his career playing in Boston.

SS - Boston - Gonzalez
Yanks - Jeter
-Another major advantage to the Yanks. Jeter is an elite player, he can be counted on to make the big plays and put up numbers year after year.

C - Boston - Varitek
Yanks - Posada
-Advantage to the Red Sox, but both catchers are on the decline offensively speaking.

LF - Bos. - Manny
Yanks - Matsui
- Advantage to the Red Sox, can't go wrong with Manny in your lineup. His defense is terrible though.

CF - Bos. - Cocoa
Yanks - Damon
-Have to go with Damon here because he has produced consistent numbers. He will score a ton of runs in that lineup, he arm is terrible though. Who knows if Crisp can keeping improving his numbers or if he will taper out.

RF - Bos. - Nixon
Yanks - Sheffield
-Got to go with Sheff here, Nixon is injury prone and Sheff is a much better hitter anyways, although his numbers will probably start to decline this year due to age.

SP - Bos. - Schilling, Arroyo, Wakefield, Beckett, Papelbon?
Yanks - Johnson, Mussina, Chacon, Wang, Pavano
-Could go either way depending on injury situations. I don't think that Schilling will ever return to his original performance capability. If the Yanks stay healthy, I think you have to go with their starters if Schilling doesn't bolster the front of that rotation.

RP - Boston - CL FOulke
Yanks - CL Mariano
-The Yanks have the clear advantage at the tail end of the bullpen here. Foulke is a question mark, Timlin is getting old, but they do have a good pitcher for the future in Hansen.
The Yanks also have question marks with Farnsworth and the other guys they brought in this offseason. But the X factor here is Dotel, he could really help them down the stretch.

Just curious about what everyone else thinks. Going by these positions, I would say that the Yanks have a 7-3 comparative advantage heading into this year. What does everyone else think?

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Well..

I don't think you can judge the two teams going positionally like that. It's the overall offensive output, the overall defensive output, and the clutch plays that will make up the difference between the two teams. As a Yankee fan I like our chances but many of those matchups could go either way

by PooNani on Feb 20, 2006 5:46 PM EST reply actions

also

the poll was for 2006-09. you can say whatever you want, but nobody really knows which team will even be better this year, so it's kind of ridiculous to suggest that one team has a definite advantage over the next four years. the red sox are a little younger, but that doesn't matter nearly as much as it normally would because the yankees have shown that they will go out and get the players they need to fill holes.

whatever. i vote in almost every poll on this site but couldn't bring myself to hazard a guess on that one. it's like betting on the super bowl coin toss if you ask me.

by jpahk on Feb 20, 2006 6:08 PM EST reply actions

analysis

Any analysis that simply takes an edge at each position and adds them up in as a score is extremely flawed, but we'll leave that aside.

You make choices like Damon over Crisp, even though Crisp posted a higher OPS+, is 5 years younger, and is better defensively.

You seem to be ingoring defense in all of your comparisons, especially in the poor defensive players like Giambi.

A lot of your picks are ignoring age regression. Giambi? Damon? Sheffield? All past their prime, we have no idea how they will play next year, forget 2009. I seriously doubt Giambi and Sheffield are even in baseball in '09, especially since MLB took away their chemistry sets.

A rotation with RJ, Musssina, Pavano, Chacon, and Wang has one serious problem: the only 2 good pitchers are way past their prime, and the other 3 "young" pitchers are simply not as good as people think. Maybe Aaron Small can come back to the rotation and go undefeated again, who knows. Maybe Wang will become the first star pitcher in the past 50 years to K 3 batters per game.

Also, you make no mention of the team's rookies/farm systems, which is a big factor considering this is a 4 year prediction? Which farm system has the better prospects? The better pitching? Hmm....

by SmokeyJoeWood on Feb 20, 2006 6:17 PM EST reply actions

sheesh

Has any Crisp fan ever looked at his defensive numbers? He has over 180 games played in CF and he totally butchered his time there. Skill in LF does not translate to skill in CF. Crisp's Rate was 93 (or 94, I forget) in over 180 games. If you want to extrapolate his future offense from his past offense, then extrapolate his future defense from his past defense.

by sabernar on Feb 20, 2006 6:37 PM EST up reply actions

defense

By "Rate" do you mean fielding percentage? I wouldn't use that to judge defensive value. Especially using 180 games in the beginning of a career as a sample. There really isn't one universally accepted quantitative method for valuing defense in baseball. I guess UZR is a good one, Damon is mediocre at best there.

The best way to judge defense is to watch the players play. Johnny Damon is what he is: he has above average range, but his arm...he has an arm like a leg...maybe the worst I have ever seen in CF. Runners advancing from 1st to 3rd, from 2nd to home on any ball hit his way became a nightly tradition at Fenway Park.

Coco Crisp, who I admittedly have not seen play much D aside from when the Sox play the Tribe, is reported to be an excellent defensive LF by Indians people. Yes CF is different, but I am confident he can be at least as good there, given what we know about these 2 guys.

by SmokeyJoeWood on Feb 20, 2006 6:52 PM EST up reply actions

No

Rate is a defensive statistic used at Baseball Prospectus. Take a look here.

by sabernar on Feb 20, 2006 8:23 PM EST up reply actions

I see

My mistake.
Anyway, there are dozens of defensive metrics out there, and they all seem to contradict each other at times. I suppose one can be used to make just about any argument.

by SmokeyJoeWood on Feb 20, 2006 9:06 PM EST up reply actions

Rate is very good

In my experience, I have found Rate and RSAA (runs saved above average, what Rate is based off of) to be the best defensive metrics out there. They are still flawed, and they still miss from time to time, but they are generally very solid.

by limozeen on Feb 20, 2006 9:15 PM EST up reply actions

Rate2/RSAA

it's a good stat, but it's not the best. i think david gassko's range rating, david pinto's PMR, and michel lichtman's UZR are all better. the biggest advantage of the BP stats is that they are all calculated from freely-available defensive statistics like putouts and assists, and so can be computed for any player in history, whereas the others usually rely on proprietary data or at least play-by-play data that has only been kept for the last few years.

i will, however, take issue with the notion that there are dozens of defensive metrics out there that all contradict each other. by and large, they agree with each other. i think the correlations are upwards of 80%. you certainly can't find an advanced defensive metric which will tell you that orlando hudson is a bad 2B or that alfonso soriano is a good one. and it's not just the outliers, either--the metrics tend to agree with each other on average players as well. but it's like doing any other measurement--the more corroborating data points you have, the surer you can be.

in the case of crisp, the stats seem to say he was a good LF and a poor CF, but the sample size issues are very significant for CF. it's way too early to say he's overmatched in center.

by jpahk on Feb 20, 2006 11:22 PM EST up reply actions

Sorry

I meant the best calculated from non-proprietary data. You're correct about Range (although I think it's a little sketchy right now) and UZR; they do give a better picture of overall ability. Rate is just incredibly nice to look at because it gives it to you in OPS+ style form, plus it's calculated from available data.

by limozeen on Feb 21, 2006 1:25 AM EST up reply actions

Crisp

The bottom line is Crisp wasn't good enough to play CF in Cle. He is NOT a good CF'er.

by TCapone30 on Feb 20, 2006 6:53 PM EST up reply actions

CF

I think it would be more accurate to say he was moved to LF to make room for Sizemore, their best player.

by SmokeyJoeWood on Feb 20, 2006 7:05 PM EST up reply actions

Correct, SmokeyJoeWood!

Hello everyone,

The main reason Crisp was moved to LF was to make room for Grady Sizemore, mostly because Grady's arm was considered a tad stronger than Crisp's, though I noticed this year that Crisp's arm seemed to be a tad stronger (I heard he was working on his upper body strength.)

I think both their arms are about average, which is an upgrade from Damon's, as Damon's has to be considered below average.

I still remember the game from 2005 where Damon was in medium-deep center field, threw the ball and it hopped once or twice before it reached the infield.

As for Crisp's range, he has the range and the speed to cover CF. Although I don't have the numbers in front of me, it would not surprise me if Coco matches Damon's range or is in the same ballpark, with a better arm.

Therefore, defensively, I'm pretty sure Coco can fill Damon's spot quite well. Offensively, with the Yankee lineup, Damon's runs scored could be a tad higher, but I think the offensive values like average, power, and RBIs will either be similar or favor Crisp this year and certainly in the future.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

by indiansfan on Feb 22, 2006 12:34 AM EST up reply actions

this question is all guesswork.

Who will the Yanks sign in the next couple of offseasons? Which one (or ones) of the Sox's pitching prospects will hit it big? For that matter, who will the Sox sign in the off season? Who will either of them trade for in July 2006-9? There are so many variables that it's impossible to do anything more than guess who will be better. Plus, who knows about injuries. What if Manny comes down with a career ending injury? Or ARod?

Mussina will probably be gone after this year which will free up $20M. Johnson will be gone after next year, freeing up another $18M or so. Shef will be off the books. The Sox will also free up money in the coming years. Who knows?

What this poll really tells me is that this site has more Sox fans than Yankee fans. ;)

by sabernar on Feb 20, 2006 6:40 PM EST reply actions

huh

Thats some questionable logic there, more people liked the sox to win more games so there has to be more sox fans? Way to be objective.

by goalieguy on Feb 20, 2006 6:49 PM EST up reply actions

umm....

I put a winky face there cause I was joking. :)

by sabernar on Feb 20, 2006 8:23 PM EST up reply actions

whoops

I missed that my bad, I am a-hole of the day. My apologies

by goalieguy on Feb 20, 2006 8:38 PM EST up reply actions

2006-2009

The reason I picked Boston is because of their nice farm system. They ought to have a killer pitching staff starting about 2007, and guys like Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Youkilis can bolster the offense. The Yankees have.....Phil Hughes. And a complex-league outfielder.

Frankly I'm not sure Sheffield, Giambi, Mussina, Posada, Chacon, Wang, and Johnson are even on their roster after 2006. Between age and/or injury issues, they're likely to fall by the wayside in the near future. And when that happens, where are the replacements?

If they aren't beset by injuries and performance issues, the Yankees probably are the better team in 2006, but after that I think Boston pulls away.

by delomir on Feb 20, 2006 6:46 PM EST reply actions

i suppose

it could just be based on current rosters and not include farm clubs in the analysis. and of course both teams will see untold free agents join the teams over those 4 years.

other than that, i have to guess you as a yanks fan. not uber-homer, but a little bit so. still i can live with most of your positional analysis except for this one. starting pitching.

Schilling, Arroyo, Wakefield, Beckett, Papelbon?
Johnson, Mussina, Chacon, Wang, Pavano

schilling is poised to decline, but johnson isn't? mussina and pavano? pavano has not delivered at all. and mussina is headed down the same road as schilling and johnson. so going into 07 and 08, i see beckett/papelbon vs chacon/wang as the only viable returning guys. and that's a pretty clear boston advantage, i think.

http://www.simdynasty.com/index.jsp?refer=mychiefs58

by huckleberry on Feb 20, 2006 7:14 PM EST reply actions

it's difficult

... to take seriously anybody who takes the yankees' rotation over the sox after listing beckett as the sox 4th starter and leaving clement and wells off the list altogether. injuries could be a factor, absolutely, which makes it that much more important that the sox have 7 reasonably solid options while the yankees' plan B is jaret wright and aaron small.

not that i'm not a sox fan, but that analysis isn't very analy.

also, you, uh, neglected to include DH.

by wily mo on Feb 20, 2006 7:19 PM EST reply actions

DH

Oh, I'm sure the Andy Phillips/Bubba Crosdy platoon would have the edge at DH.

by SmokeyJoeWood on Feb 20, 2006 7:27 PM EST up reply actions

The best part

Is every time he mentions an advantage to the Red Sox, he throws in some witty comment that belittle whomever he's speaking of.

DH
Bernie Williams or David Ortiz? Slight edge to Ortiz here, though he's kinda fat and likes Mango Salsa.

Also, what about the rest of the bullpen?

Riske, Seanez, Tavarez, Timlin, Papelbon, Hansen, DelCarmen
vs
Farnsworth... and um... Mendoza.

by Wilhelm Scream on Feb 20, 2006 10:41 PM EST up reply actions

Boston

I picked Boston because I trust Red Sox management over Yankee management and because the Red Sox have a better set of young players.

The Yankees are going to get old soon... they have players who could "fall off a cliff," if you will. They could have an ugly year or two in the middle of this stretch, and I'd be surprised if they didn't.

by nygiants5811 on Feb 20, 2006 7:21 PM EST reply actions

Forgot DH...

Where Ortiz gives Boston a huge advantage. But I don't think anyone will say Boston is going to score more than the Yanks in 2006.

To me it all comes down to the rotation, Boston's rotation clearly has more potential than the Yanks, IMO.
Schill/RJ is a push, if both make 30-35 starts.
Beckett/Pavano is Boston's favor, in a big way, if both make 30-35 starts. Pavano's core numbers weren't that strong even in his best year.
Moose/Clement is in Boston's favor, not as heavy, but Moose has been in decline the last two years. At 31, Clement is young enough to where there is some hope he returns to 2002-2004 form. At 37, there's no real reason to believe Moose will get better.

Beyond those direct comparisons, I like Boston's near future potential with Papelbon and Lester, better than the Yanks, and feel the back end of both rotations is a push for 2006 with Wakefield, Wells, Arrojo and Papelbon vs Wang, Chacon, Wright.

I'd have to say the Damon/Crisp is a push for this year, and goes to Boston's favor in 2-3 years.

Given that, if luck shines on both rotations, I think Boston will win. And given what we know, it seems reasonable to believe Boston will win more than the Yanks in the near future. But what we don't know (ie who the Boss will sign as free agents) is what will keep things interesting.

by beastball on Feb 20, 2006 10:19 PM EST reply actions

my take

DH (yes it does matter)
Boston Papi
Yanks Bernie
- huge edge BoSox

1b - Boston - Youkilis
Yanks - Giambi
big edge Yans in spite of D

2b - Boston - Loretta
Yanks - Cano
even

3b - Boston - Lowell
Yanks - ARod
huge adv Yanks

SS - Boston - Gonzalez (Pedroia soon)
Yanks - Jeter
adv Yanks (Pedroia will make the diff much smaller but for 06 big diff)

C - Boston - Varitek
Yanks - Posada
adv BoSox

LF - Bos. - Manny
Yanks - Matsui
Big adv BoSox (ps: Matsui sucks defensively also)

CF - Bos. - Crisp
Yanks - Damon
even. Crisp is improving and I think will be better while Damon is on downturn. Crisp has a few D questions. So it evens out.

RF - Bos. - Nixon
Yanks - Sheffield
Sheff is FA after this year.
even.

SP - Bos. - Beckett, Wells, Clement, Schilling, Arroyo, Wakefield, Beckett, Papelbon, Lester
Yanks - Johnson, Mussina, Chacon, Wang, Pavano, Wright
I think Johnson/Shilling have same risks and are both done after this year. Mussina is average and Arroyo is probably better now. After that Yankees have questions. BoSox has much more depth and young starters.
big edge BoSox

RP - Boston - CL FOulke, Hansen, Delcarmen, Papelbon, etc.
Yanks - CL Mariano, Farnsworth, ...
even (cause I don't know enough of the yankees relievers LOL)

Looking at that it comes down to the large edge in starting pitching that Boston has. The other factors kind of even out. Personally - I think the Yankees get a Kerry Wood or Jason Schmidt this offseason and are on par with Boston.

by pedrophile on Feb 21, 2006 1:37 AM EST reply actions

they can have kerry wood

and his annual 8 wins. get him the hell out of here.

http://www.simdynasty.com/index.jsp?refer=mychiefs58

by huckleberry on Feb 21, 2006 2:12 AM EST up reply actions

LF

Matsui may not be the greatest defensive outfielder, but if you were to pick between Manny and Matsui based on defensive skills who do you think most people would pick?

by marchmadness on Feb 21, 2006 9:26 AM EST up reply actions

hitting

Manny is the slightly better hitter don't you think? Yes Manny is worse in the field but Matsui is no hell either.

by pedrophile on Feb 21, 2006 10:40 AM EST up reply actions

No doubt

Manny is the better hitter, but you said that Matsui sucks defensively and I was just saying that comparing the two based on their defense, Matsui's isn't that bad compared to Manny's defense. There is no question who is the better hitter.

by marchmadness on Feb 21, 2006 10:55 AM EST up reply actions

Wow

"SP - Bos. - Beckett, Wells, Clement, Schilling, Arroyo, Wakefield, Beckett, Papelbon, Lester"

They cloned Josh Beckett? Does Dubya know about this?

by williethekid20 on Feb 21, 2006 9:26 AM EST up reply actions

that's beckett before and after the DL stint

heeeey now

by wily mo on Feb 21, 2006 1:27 PM EST up reply actions

Tabata

What does everyone think of Jose Tabata? From what I have read about him, he could become an elite player.

by marchmadness on Feb 21, 2006 9:33 AM EST reply actions

17

Tabata was very impressive in CGL considering his age... but he's 17 years old. At this point, he's still has much more of a chance of disappearing, like any young player in the GCL. Even if he does make it, it will probably be 5 years from now at best.

by SmokeyJoeWood on Feb 21, 2006 9:40 AM EST up reply actions

Could be trade bait?

The Yanks will most likely end up trading him anyways, probably for somebody in their mid 30's in an attempt to bring the average age of the team down a bit.

by marchmadness on Feb 21, 2006 9:47 AM EST up reply actions

Forecasting

To forecast what the Yankees (or Red Sox, for that matter) will look like in 2008 or 2009 is folly. Did anyone think before 2004 that Boston would have Josh Beckett right now?

These are teams that have more resources than anyone and will put them to good use. The Yankees will add players via free agency, as will Boston, and both will trade prospects for proven guys because they both have immense pressure to win.

I will grant the fact that Boston has the better prospects at higher levels at this point, but I don't think it necessarily makes them a great team in 2008 or 2009. They aren't exactly young, either, with Manny, Ortiz (I know he's 30, but his body type doesn't age well), Nixon, and Varitek all moving past their primes in the near future, and the farm system isn't exactly overflowing with hitting prospects.

I will say this: I think Boston is the slight favorite in the AL East this year, if Beckett is healthy. After that, who knows?

by jc3 on Feb 21, 2006 2:59 PM EST reply actions