Los Angeles Dodgers Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Feb 18, 2006 3:33 PM EST in News Comment 46 comments

LOS ANGELES DODGERS TOP 20 PROSPECTS

Chad Billingsley, RHP, Grade A-
Joel Guzman, SS-3B-OF, Grade A-
Andy LaRoche, 3B, Grade B+
Jonathan Broxton, RHP, B+
Russell Martin, C, B+
Scott Elbert, LHP, B+
Blake DeWitt, 3B, B+
Chin-Lung Hu, SS, B
Andre Ethier, OF, B
Justin Orenduff, RHP, B
Etanislao Abreu, 2B, B-
Delwyn Young, 2B, B-
Travis Denker, 2B, B-
Matt Kemp, OF, B- (grade change from C+ in the book)
Blake Johnson, RHP, B-
Hong Chi Kuo, LHP, B-
James Loney, 1B, C+
Justin Ruggiano, OF, C+ (grade change from B- in book)
Anthony Raglani, OF, C+
Josh Wall, RHP, C+

The best farm system in baseball.

I gave Matt Kemp a C+ in the book, due to concerns about his strike zone judgment, but I think I will raise that to B- due to his excellent overall potential and athleticism.

James Loney may be controversial at C+, but the fact is that he hasn't lived up to expectations. A first baseman with a career SLG of .411 has a lot of work to do.

I'm dropping Justin Ruggiano from B- to C+. I still like him a lot, but I needed to account more strongly for his age-league factor and his high strikeout rate.

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Tiffany

You better take Chuck Tiffany out of the top 20. Remember he was traded to the Rays.

by ultxmxpx on Feb 18, 2006 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

noted

noted.

by John Sickels on Feb 18, 2006 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sweet Willie Aybar

What grade would you give him?

by The Colonel on Feb 18, 2006 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

C

by John Sickels on Feb 18, 2006 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Guzman

almost seems a little bored at times. I suspect his minor league numbers will end up being good, but not spectacular. once he makes it to the Show you'll see him explode.

"I wish I knew how to quit you James Loney."

by jamesloney4life on Feb 18, 2006 3:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

son of a bitch

That's what i thought when i saw this list.

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad on Feb 18, 2006 4:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not Sure What You Mean

Ohad, care to expand on your exclamation?

by CanuckDodger on Feb 18, 2006 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's how

I expressed my jealousy.

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad on Feb 18, 2006 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Okay

Thought you may have just disliked John's list or ratings.

by CanuckDodger on Feb 18, 2006 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

haha

LOL. I don't think anyone here who disagreed with Johns ratings (or happened to be a D'Backs or Angels fan) would resort to cursing him.

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad on Feb 18, 2006 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Elbert

Do you see his future in the bullpen or as a starter?

by pjr55ct on Feb 18, 2006 4:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

why bullpen?

why would he go to the bullpen?

by npurcell on Feb 19, 2006 8:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Raglani's name is mispelled on your list (there is no "i" after the "l'). Also, did you change his grade from the book? I think you gave him a "B-" in your book. And I think you gave Wall only a "C" in the book. I don't have your book so I could be wrong, but on another message board somebody posted your grades for Dodger prospects. Perhaps that person was in error.

by CanuckDodger on Feb 18, 2006 4:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Raglani

I spelled it right in the book but wrong when I wrote up the list. Will fix.

He is Grade C+ in the book. So is Wall.

by John Sickels on Feb 18, 2006 5:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dewitt?

What's the fascination with him? BA raves about him, but after a decent pro debut, he didn't hit that well at all in the Sally League. Was it his good week in the FSL playoffs?

by Ian Miller on Feb 18, 2006 5:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

dewitt

BA and john and others like dewitt because hes a hard worker and as the season went on, he made the neccessary adjustments that you would like to see in young players. he also has very nice hitting mechanics and has a low k rate. Batting .291 in his first full proffessional season is pretty darn good. his ISOp was .148 and scouts say he has plus raw power so he is still developing that.

he just has the offensive tools to be a very good hitter. A lot of people, sickels, callis, manuel, predict a big breakout year for dewitt next year.

by npurcell on Feb 19, 2006 8:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

DeWitt

DeWitt's offensive numbers steadily improved in the SAL over the course of the 2005 season. He had been hitting over .300 for a couple months before he was promoted to high A. DeWitt's final SAL line, .283/.333/.428, isn't too different than Jeff Francouer's numbers in the SAL at the same age, .281/.325/.445. And many think DeWitt's future is at 2B.

by CanuckDodger on Feb 18, 2006 5:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dynasty

If the right free agents are added, with an impressive farm system like this, do you see a dynasty in the Dodgers future John?

by Dodgerdynasty213 on Feb 18, 2006 6:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

dynasty

Too early to say that, of course. Some of the pre-conditions are here, but a LOT of things have to break the right way for it to pan out.

by John Sickels on Feb 18, 2006 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

What about with the D-Backs or Angels? I know neither has the pitching the Dodger system does, but generally hitters are more reliable as prospects, anyway.

by Ian Miller on Feb 18, 2006 6:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

John

Hey John, just wondering what your opinion is on the great Cain/Verlander/Billingsley debate. This seemed like an appropriate place to post the question, seeing as Billz is the crown jewel of the Dodgers' system. Thanks.

by limozeen on Feb 18, 2006 6:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hm

Probably Billingsley. Cain if he can throw strikes/stay healthy. I don't see Verlander beating both.

Why those three, I wonder? Where's King Felix?

by wcw on Feb 18, 2006 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

why those three?

because they're the consensus top three RHP prospects. felix is not only waaaay ahead of those guys, but he's no longer a prospect.

by jpahk on Feb 18, 2006 11:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Liriano

No love for Liriano?

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Feb 19, 2006 1:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He's lefthanded, and probably my favorite prospect

by limozeen on Feb 19, 2006 1:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

I was referring to this post:

"Hey John, just wondering what your opinion is on the great Cain/Verlander/Billingsley debate. This seemed like an appropriate place to post the question, seeing as Billz is the crown jewel of the Dodgers' system. Thanks."

Since there was nothing about being a RHP in the first post, asking how Liriano stacked up aginst them seemed only logical. Not real sure why your post had to be in bold either....later

Charlie

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Feb 19, 2006 10:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The question was referencing a diary

And the reason that the response was all bold was because it was just the subject line, there was no body to the comment because it was short enough not to require it. Sorry for the confusion.

by limozeen on Feb 19, 2006 10:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

catcher debate

John, I'm curious what your take is on Navarro v. Martin. Most of the baseball world seems to think Martin is a far superior prospect, with the notable exception of Nate Silver, or perhaps more accurately, PECOTA at BP. I find Silver's argument to be pretty compelling, which basically is that a 21 year old catcher with a roughly league average performance in the National League, is just as impressive, and perhaps moreso than a 22 year old catcher with an excellent performance in the Eastern League.

by amol on Feb 18, 2006 8:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Martin

I wouldn't call his performance excellent. He didn't show much power. I do still like Martin though and I think he'll have a number of lines around .270/.380/.400.

by ultxmxpx on Feb 18, 2006 9:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chris Westervelt

Not surprised to see he didn't make the top 20 because he has missed more games than he has played since going pro due to injury, but has a natural catcher's makeup. Good bat with gap power, and defensive tools. Haven't seen him as a pro, but saw a couple college games a few years back on TV, and really liked him. Reminded me a lot of Jason LaRue.

by StickRat on Feb 20, 2006 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Westervelt

Westervelt is supposed to be a pretty poor defensive catcher, which is why despite hitting well in college he was not drafted until the 11th round. LaRue on the other hand is supposed to be quite good defensively.

by CanuckDodger on Feb 20, 2006 3:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

11th round relatively high

The Dodgers have had pretty good success with low-round catchers in Mike Piazza and Paul Lo Duca. Westervelt's strength is certainly his bat, but was billed as a good catch-and-throw college backstop by rivals.com, and I was impressed with his feel behind the plate when I saw him with Stetson. LaRue isn't exactly a textbook defender. Revered for his arm and keeps base stealers in check, but has had a lot of problems as a receiver. Over 60 PB's in just five full major-league seasons.

by StickRat on Feb 20, 2006 4:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Greg Miller

He was a good prospect before he missed parts of the last two seasons with Tommy John. I know he's still working on getting his control back, be he still has a high strikeout rate. I figured he would be in the mix in the top 20...

by TedfordForever on Feb 19, 2006 2:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Miller

He never had TJ surgery, not sure where you got that from.

by hybrid on Feb 19, 2006 2:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Surgery..

Sorry, no TJ, but he did have shoulder surgery on his pitching arm that shelved him in '04.

by TedfordForever on Feb 19, 2006 3:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Miller future Dodgers closer?

I've seen Miller pitch before thanks to Jacksonville web casts and I think he'd make a great closer for the Dodgers (think Gagne meets Wagner) if he cant start.

He'd be one dominant closer if he focused on that.

by Dodgerdynasty213 on Feb 19, 2006 7:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

20 - 30 ..... future mlb depth chart

i was wondering - who are 20 to 30?.. do they have C prospects down to 30?

also - thinking about their depth chart going into 07, it looks like a major logjam .. i know the saying "things always work themsleves out", but this looks like it will hurt a couple players if they don't get their chance (Denker, Abreu)

this is what i have for just position players.. sleepers in ( )

c
Navarro
Martin
(Apodaca)

1b
Nomar
Choi
Loney
(Dunlap)

2b
Kent
Delwyn
Abreu
Denker

ss
Furcal
Izturis
Aybar
Guzman
Hu

3b
Mueller
Aybar
Laroche
Dewitt
Guzman

OF
Drew
Cruz jr
Lofton
Werth
Guzman
Ethier
Kemp
Ruggiano
Raglani
(Hoffman)
(Repko)
(Ross)

by ufo on Feb 19, 2006 5:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

dewitt

should sneak dewitt under 2B also.

by wily mo on Feb 19, 2006 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ethier

Was Ethier's high AFL walk rate a fluke, or is his discipline returning to the levels he showed in college? His AFL walk rate seems pretty out of line to what he has showed in the minors.

by cunningt on Feb 19, 2006 1:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Any Billy Ashley's in the farm?

Does anyone see any Billy Ashleys in the farm? Meaning someone who's all hype and possibly won't perform in the bigs.

by Dodgerdynasty213 on Feb 20, 2006 6:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Almost all of them?

I kid. But only somewhat. I have never seen such hype as within the Dodgers system in the last few years, and for what? Where are the major leaguers? Franklin Gutierrez? Greg Miller? James Loney? Some of them, fortunately, are getting closer to being in the Show, but the Dodgers hype machine has been in overdrive before. I'll believe it when they're playing -- and playing well -- in Chavez Ravine.

The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.

by scareduck on Feb 22, 2006 2:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Like A Broken Record, and A Bad One...

Again with your tired act. Where are the major leaguers? Jackson, Brazoban, Navarro, Aybar, Broxton, Thompson, Kuo, Schmoll, Osoria, and Repko were all Dodger prospects entering the 2005 season and performed with varying degrees of success in the majors in 2005, and most of them were from the third, fourth, or even fifth tier of prospects (they were closer to the majors than the more premium prospects). Of course YOU, being you, would say most of the guys mentioned above are garbage, but you would dismiss anybody who doesn't look like the second coming of Clemens or Pujols in their first MLB season. The future is bright for a few of those players, while some of them will at least be MLB journeymen or reserves. And those players represent a very small sample of the overall talent in the Dodger farm. Like I said, your act is tired.

by CanuckDodger on Feb 23, 2006 3:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Please

As though your broken record and tired act is as fresh as the new day. I've never seen anyone go on as long as you have on the same wearying points. It's offputting, frankly, and loses you more listeners than it wins. But keep it up, I'm sure it satisfies some righteous need within you.

by Flynn Blake on Feb 23, 2006 5:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No

Billy Ashley was nothing until he got to Triple A Albuquerque and put up inflated offensive stats thanks to the extreme hitter-friendliness of the park. None of the position players in John's Top 20 have had their offensive stats enhanced by a hitter-friendly park and league, though high A Vero Beach is a park that relatively helps right-handed power hitters in the most extreme of pitcher's leagues, so who knows what LaRoche or Kemp would have hit in a neutral high A environment. I think their away games in high A probably cancelled out their home games' advantage.

by CanuckDodger on Feb 20, 2006 8:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Matt Kemp

Matt Kemp is a stud. Standing at 6'4, 210, the dude can flat out mash. I feel like he should be a B+. Not only is he great on offense, but he's got speed, an arm, and great defense. He's huge and he has everything.

Man he is underrated.

Why the B-?

by Shane Cobb on Mar 5, 2006 6:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs