Gauging the SS prospects

by sourstuff on Feb 16, 2006 5:14 PM EST

I think one of the weakest positions right now for top tier prospects (with the exception of 2b, and perpetually the catcher) is suprisingly the Shortstop position. Obviously we got Brandon Wood at the top of the list but it really starts to thin out, and is very top heavy. Who's next, Adam Jones? Troy Tulowitzki? Pennington? Let's assume that Joel Guzman gets moved to the OF as planned and so does Justin Upton:

Who would make up the top five?

Brandon Wood.
Probably Stephen Drew
?
?
?

Or maybe this is just a lapse in judgement and memory and I am forgetting some studs.

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I would tend to agree with you

Even though he is extremely young, I would put Elvis Andrus on the list probably 4th and Tulowitzki 3rd.

Adam Jones has been moved to the OF and like you said Guzman is probably headed there as well.

I actually think Upton will be given every opportunity to stick at SS, which in turn moves Drew off.

I guess you could put Cliff Pennington on there but I'm not that high on him right now.

Marcus Sanders would be there too, but I'm considering him a 2B.

by The Scout on Feb 16, 2006 5:19 PM EST reply actions

Pedroia?

It appears the Sox are moving him back to SS now that Hanley is gone.

by cdamon @ Minor League Ball on Feb 16, 2006 5:34 PM EST reply actions

Better 2b

He's a better prospect as a 2b based on D. They should keep him there and get a good defensive SS for the future.

by jc3 on Feb 16, 2006 6:16 PM EST up reply actions

Scouts

give him plus defense even at SS.

He was defensive player of the year in college as a SS.

He is probably a GG at 2B, but only an average to above average SS.

by cdamon @ Minor League Ball on Feb 16, 2006 7:19 PM EST up reply actions

Really?

Haven't seen one report that says that he is a plus defensive SS... average at best is what I've seen.

As far as defensive player of the year in college, I'm not sure I can trust that as much as GG awards.

IMO, his best value is at 2b.

by jc3 on Feb 17, 2006 10:24 AM EST up reply actions

Some comments

Most of the scouting notes I have access to now are based on 2B, because he played 2B all of 06. I admit he is not as good of a defensive SS as Hanley. For all of Hanley's liabilities', he is a good defensive SS.

I do take the defensive player of the year in college as a scouting plus.

John's 2005 comment: "He plays way above his tools at SS, with great quickness and terrific fundamentals."

BA rates him as the best defensive tools in the boston org.

by cdamon @ Minor League Ball on Feb 17, 2006 10:51 AM EST up reply actions

My real question

... is why move him to his weaker position? It's just as valuable to have a bat at 2b as it is at ss, and if what you say is right about his GG level defense at 2b, why move him at all? His value goes down playing ss because his defensive value takes a hit while his offensive plus does not go up appreciably at all. JMO.

by jc3 on Feb 17, 2006 10:59 AM EST up reply actions

Mark Loretta, perhaps?

by limozeen on Feb 17, 2006 11:33 AM EST up reply actions

Thinking more long term

I agree with that. If he is able to contribute at the major league level, then he probably needs to play SS. Long-term, I'd doubt he belongs there.

by jc3 on Feb 17, 2006 12:03 PM EST up reply actions

two reasons

Short term, the Sox have Loretta at 2nd and Gonzalez at SS. Who would you rather replace in the lineup?

Long term, I think they see Lowrie and Pedroia as the middle infielders. I think Pedroia at SS makes more sense with the two of them than the other way around.

Even if Lowrie does not develop, it is always easier to find someone who can play 2B than someone who can play SS. The Todd Walkers and Mark Bellhorns always seem to be available.

by cdamon @ Minor League Ball on Feb 17, 2006 11:34 AM EST up reply actions

Missing the point

A lot of his perceived value is tied up in his defense as a 2b, not as a ss. If he moves to ss, his value drops. Just because he's a better ss than Lowrie doesn't mean that his value is any more.

If I were them, I'd get a comparable ss to Lowrie's value at 2b and stick Pedroia at 2b so that his true value is maximized. If you are saying that is hard to do, well, it might be, but that would be the avenue I would follow.

by jc3 on Feb 17, 2006 12:08 PM EST up reply actions

look past brandon wood...

in order to see erick aybar...i think hes probably on this list...and overall, i say it goes like this:

upton (if he sticks)
wood
drew
tulo
aybar

and andrus might squeak in there at 6...i'd like to see more from him before he cracks the top 5...

by Rob Castellano on Feb 16, 2006 5:38 PM EST reply actions

Especially...

since Aybar is more likely to be the long term answer at SS and Wood will move to 3B.

by jc3 on Feb 16, 2006 6:51 PM EST up reply actions

That list looks good for the top 5

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen.

by Phil Gurnee on Feb 16, 2006 8:30 PM EST up reply actions

How could we forget Aybar?

Damn, I love Aybar and I forgot all about him.

It just shows that with all the Upton/Wood/Drew hype, Aybar is under the radar right now.

While we are kind of talking about Andrus, where do you guys think a guy like him will fall on BA's top 100 list?

Same with Jose Tabata. Since they are young teenage sensations, I put them in the same category.

by The Scout on Feb 16, 2006 5:57 PM EST reply actions

Tuiosasopo

I know i butchered his name, but his bat can not be ignored.

He has the potential to be a great hitter at the short stop position, and the big if is if he doesn not out grow the position.

He already carries a body style fo ARod.

by jbg3004 on Feb 16, 2006 6:31 PM EST reply actions

definitely moved

he will be subject to the same positional change that adam jones was last season again due to the presence of future gold glover yuniesky betancourt...if i had to guess i'd say tuiasasopo moves to a corner OF position...or maybe 3rd...

by Rob Castellano on Feb 16, 2006 6:40 PM EST up reply actions

Tui

It's pretty much a guarantee that he will move off SS. His range and quickness aren't up to par for him to stick there. Not to mention he will probably fill out and they already have a wizard with the glove at SS on the M's.

by hybrid on Feb 16, 2006 6:41 PM EST up reply actions

Brignac

If we're talking Tuiasosopo, Brignac derserves a mention. Both had great rookie years and fast starts in 2005, but unspectacular rest-of-the-seasons. And both might have to shift to 3rd.

I think I'd rank Andrus ahead of Erick Aybar, but behind Tulowitzki. I think Aybar will just be a good SS with a number of average seasons thrown in.

I'd go something like this:

Wood
Upton/Drew
Tulowitzki
Andrus
Brignac
Aybar
Hanley Ramirez
Tuiasosopo
Asdruba Cabrera
Ronny Cedeno
Marcus Sanders
Chris Nelson

by ultxmxpx on Feb 16, 2006 6:52 PM EST up reply actions

Not that I disagree with you

but has there ever been a 22 year old SS who hit .355 in AAA that has gotten less respect than Cedeno

by Ienpw on Feb 16, 2006 7:19 PM EST up reply actions

chin lung hu

he would probably be at the bottom of the top SS prospect list but you cant ignore him. Hes the best defensive SS in the minors and hes electric on the field. He does hit for a higher average and makes consistent contact with surprising pop in his small frame, but he doesnt walk enough.

by npurcell on Feb 16, 2006 6:44 PM EST reply actions

I forgot about Nelson too

Damn, I forgot about my favorite player from last year and the #1 pick in my draft last year Chris Nelson.

I sure hope he bounces back. His name should be at the top of that list if it wasn't for his injury plagued year. Hopefully, this time next year it will be.

by The Scout on Feb 16, 2006 7:16 PM EST reply actions

Yeah

I picked him high to but dropped him, thinking about picking him again this year have you heard anything on him, I know he had some injury issues last year, in my shoes would you take him again or go for Tulo (which I am leaning towards)

by goalieguy on Feb 16, 2006 9:39 PM EST up reply actions

Haven't heard anything

As far as I know, Nelson should be healthy to start the season.

I would say Tulo is the safer bet right now. He will probably reach the majors sooner than Nelson.

I still feel Nelson has more offensive upside.

BA says Tulo might force Nelson to 2B. If that's the case and Nelson progresses offensively like he is supposed to, he could put up some big time numbers for a second baseman.

by The Scout on Feb 16, 2006 11:14 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for the info

He stunk up the joint last year (at least compared to expectations which were probaably to high), but I remember a few people I think John included saying his bat was more advanced than BJ Upton's and that kind of potential in Coors would be amazing.

I hadnt heard about Nelson switching to 2b but that would make sense. Do you think Tulo makes it to COl this year? I know its a big jump but I dont get the feeling they "love" Barmes, and tulo seems pretty advanced

by goalieguy on Feb 16, 2006 11:46 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe

I would think Tulo would really have to be tearing up the minors to get called up.

He'll get a call up late in the year, but I don't think I would expect a midseason call up unless something crazy happens.

He seems pretty polished from what I've read though.

by The Scout on Feb 17, 2006 12:47 AM EST up reply actions

bossman juniah
s'drew
brand-o-wood
tulowit'zki

* END OF THE TOP TIER, REALLY *

hanley
chris nelson
e aybar
brignac
plouffe
joaquin arias
ronny, not roger, cedeno
asdrubal cabsdrubal
a little less conversation a little more andrus
cj henry

lucky 13. this is really kind of in more or less random order beneath the TOP TIER DELIMITER

by wily mo on Feb 16, 2006 8:46 PM EST reply actions

Justin Upton RC cards

Since we are talking about Justin Upton.

I don't collect cards as much as I used to but I still like to grab the top prospects.

Does anybody know if Upton has any Rookie cards out yet? If not, when will they come out.

by The Scout on Feb 17, 2006 12:51 AM EST reply actions

he will have a very limited autograph card....

...released sometime soon...it will depict him in his HS AFLAC jersey...

by daveh33 on Feb 17, 2006 4:42 PM EST up reply actions

I'm surprised

At the lack of optimism about Pennington. Two lists here have him out of the top 12...

I'd go:

Steven Drew
Brandon Wood
Troy Tulowitzki
Elvis Andrus (not much data, but upside puts him ahead of lower tier players)
Hanley Ramirez
Aybar
Clifton Pennington
Reid Brignac
Ronny Cedeno

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 17, 2006 2:06 PM EST reply actions