Sanders and the BA chat

by z4 landshark on Feb 15, 2006 10:58 PM EST

John Manuel of BA had a chat today where he discussed top minor leaguers at various positions.

Giants fans (like myself) should be pretty happy after the chat today, because Manuel wrote glowing reports regarding SS Marcus Sanders.

Here are some excerpts from the FREE CONTENT.

Q: Rowdy Hardy from Clarksville, TN asks:
Who would consider the best base stealer in the minors? Anyone to challenge Ricky Henderson's records in near or distant future?

A: John Manuel: Marcus Sanders is my pick, speed with savvy and the boldness to steal a lot of bases. But no one's touching Rickey's 130 or career mark in the near future, not that I can see, people just don't play that way anymore and Rickey was a very unique player.

Q: Ian from Illadelph asks:
Please justify Marcus Sanders over Dustin Pedroia. My BA subscription renewal rests upon your answer. The clock is ticking...

A: John Manuel: That's a ceiling deal, and I like Pedroia a lot. I consider Sanders the best leadoff hitter in the minors--a line-drive bat, ability to take a walk and game-changing speed combined with baserunning savvy. Just harder to find than Pedroia's tools, and that's even with Pedroia's tools playing up because of his outstanding makeup, drive and desire.

My analysis: I am pretty excited because I have always wanted the Giants to be more active on the basepaths. Manuel considers him the best leadoff man with the potential to change the game with his speed!! Another real plus is that Sanders can take a walk and can GET ON BASE where he then can wreak havoc on the other teams. If he can continue to stay at the MI spot (which is no guarantee with his injury problems to his arm), then he may be able to eventually become an "impact" player.

What other ideas/comments did you guys see as interesting in that chat?

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Comments

High Hopes

I really like Sanders a lot. If he could ever produce 10-15 homers a year, he will be a superstar.

I need some help at second base. I have Giles as my starter, Durham as a backup and I will probably cut Todd Walker this year.

Speaking of Ray Durham, many people compare Sanders to him. I just hope he has a better career than Durham. Durham has had a nice career, but it has fallen short of what I thought he would be.

Anyway, I'm planning on picking Sanders and DeWitt this year. Unless something crazy happens and Kendrick falls to me.

by The Scout on Feb 15, 2006 11:36 PM EST reply actions

wow

durham has been a prety nice player over the years. He still is, actually. I guess Sanders is better now than Durham was at his age, but for a kid in A ball I'd say a Ray Durham career is a prety positive forecast.

"Well I believe in the soul..."

by D O on Feb 16, 2006 1:06 AM EST up reply actions

I guess your right

I guess you're right about Durham, he's had a pretty nice career. If I had Sanders, I would sign up for Durham's career right now. He's always shown the ability to hit for some pop and swipe some bases.

I guess I was thinking of him more in terms of recent years where injuries have really sapped him of his stolen base ability.

by The Scout on Feb 16, 2006 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

Arm

I'm worried about Sanders' arm. It sounds like his shoulder was injured pretty badly playing football in high school. He had surgery over the winter to try to correct it. Shoulders always make me nervous. I suppose you don't need a strong arm to play 2B, but I'm not sure he's going to even have an adequate 2B arm. Offensively, he appears to be the prototypical leadoff hitter with the combination of speed and OBP skills.

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 16, 2006 1:35 AM EST reply actions

CF?

Maybe he can move to CF if he can't throw... Johnny Damon's made a pretty good career out of it.

by jc3 on Feb 16, 2006 9:06 AM EST up reply actions

Sanders

I think Giants fans should be more worried about Sanders' contact rate. He strikes out in 21.4% of his AB's, which is a pretty high rate for a speed player with little power (only 22% of hits go for extra bases). Last season, among the 10 players who stole at least 25 bases and had isolated slugging percentege less than .150, only one, Willy Taveras, had a strikeout rate over 15%. And Tavares' rate of 17.4% is still comfortable better than the rate Sanders was wiffing last year. Unless he improves his contact rate (highly unlikely) or really improves his extra base power (slightly less unlikely), pitchers at higher levels are going to overpower him and not throw as many balls.

by sanchez101 on Feb 16, 2006 2:00 AM EST reply actions

K rates

This is a very good example of how not to use strikeout rates

At Bats is not a good denominator. Basically, it punishes Sanders for walking so often (because those those appearances don't count as at bats) and rewards guys like Taveras who swing away at everything. It makes it seem Sanders is striking out much more often than Taveras when that isn't the case at all.

A better approach would be K / plate appearances. Sanders struck out in 17.9% of plate appearances last year, which is about average for his age. Taveras, in contrast, struck out in 16.2% at the major league level. For what it's worth, Taveras struck out in 17.8% of appearances when he was in A-ball at age 20.

Does that make sense?
Anyway, I don't think Sanders' contact is a problem. I'm mostly waiting to see what kind of power he develops; he really didn't accumulate many doubles for a guy with his kind of speed.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Feb 18, 2006 1:21 AM EST up reply actions

Love his OBP

but Sanders still has a long, long way to go. With his lack of power, if his walk-rate wavers, his star dims considerably(see Michael Bourn).

by Ian Miller on Feb 16, 2006 2:10 AM EST reply actions

I love how

that one guys subscription renewal is dependent on Manuel agreeing with him

by nms on Feb 16, 2006 4:18 AM EST reply actions

It's probably ...

... one of the guys chipping in $5 to split a sub.

by Flynn Blake on Feb 16, 2006 12:02 PM EST up reply actions

Or its...

a guy who posts here called TempleUSox, who is a sarcastic mother.... (sorry I'll watch my mouth)... However, Sanders vs. Pedroia is a good scouts vs. stats debate and polish vs. potential debate as well.

by jspearlj1 on Feb 16, 2006 1:56 PM EST up reply actions

Yea...

it was me. It was just a joke, so relax. And I pay my full subscription.

by templeUsox on Feb 16, 2006 8:53 PM EST up reply actions

re

I saw Sanders play in the AZL a few years back. Don't think he can't sting the ball. He had some real pop for a guy that was 6'0" and 150 pounds. He hit a few homers and a lot of long gappers on some big fields during his first experience with a wood bat. I say once that shoulder heals right and he gains some strength he'll be good for 10-15 homers annually.

by ScottAZ on Feb 16, 2006 11:10 AM EST reply actions

I agree 100%

I see no reason why Sanders won't improve his power numbers. He's 6 feet tall and I think he projects to add some more weight. In the picture's that I've seen, he seems to be pretty cut.

He's not some small, skinny kid. He looks pretty built to me. There are plenty of guys a lot smaller than Sanders in the majors that hit double digit home runs.

I see no reason why Sanders can't do it. I also think his strike zone discipline will improve helping him find which pitches he can drive out of the ballpark.

by The Scout on Feb 16, 2006 5:53 PM EST up reply actions

re

He really impressed me in the AZL. I had never heard of him but he was out shining guys that were big named, big bonus guys. I remember telling a buddy that this guy was about to make a name for himself in Baseball America.

What surprised me the most was his polish. Many tools guys come into the AZL without a clue but Sanders was much farther along than almost everyone else when it came to playing the game. I thought maybe it was because he was coming from a JUCO and was a year or two older than the other guys, but his same success has carried up as well.

After watching him play with hustle and exuberance I'm a fan and hoping he is the SF secondbaseman in 2007

by ScottAZ on Feb 17, 2006 11:16 AM EST up reply actions