Chicago Cubs Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Feb 12, 2006 11:44 AM EST in News

CHICAGO CUBS Top 20 Prospects

Mark Pawelek, LHP, Grade B+
Felix Pie, OF, Grade B+
Ronny Cedeno, SS, B
Eric Patterson, 2B, B
Jae-Kuk Ryu, RHP, B
Donald Veal, LHP, B
Sean Gallagher, RHP, B
Angel Guzman, RHP, B-
Rich Hill, LHP, B-
Carlos Marmol, RHP, B-
Sean Marshall, LHP, B-
Scott Moore, 3B, B-
Ryan Harvey, OF, C+
Mark Holliman, RHP, C+
Mike Phelps, RHP, C+
Brian Dopirak, 1B, C
Brandon Sing, 1B, C
Rick Rohlicek, LHP, C
Randy Wells, RHP, C
Grant Johnson, RHP, C

Angel Guzman is a wild card. If healthy, he's at least a Grade B prospect and probably a B+, but given his inability to stay away from the doctors, I wanted to be cautious in rating him. If he stays healthy this spring, raise his grade accordingly and move him up the list.

As high school pitchers go, I like Pawelek a lot. Pie's athleticism is impressive and he performs well, at times. . .he is still rather raw and will struggle if rushed. Picking between Pawelek and Pie for the number one spot is a back-and-forth thing. When I went to bed last night I was going to put Pie on top, but I changed my mind this morning.

I have considerable doubts about Ryan Harvey's bat, and tend to rank him lower than other experts.

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Comments

Cedeno

John,
Someone I was talking to (A huge Cub Fan) said that Cedeno is very comparable to Derek Jeter. I don't know how Jeter performed before his advancement to the majors. Is there any comparison?

by rifle24 on Feb 12, 2006 11:58 AM EST reply actions

Jeter's minor league numbers

Jeter succeeded at every level. Cedeno hitting for average is a new development to be sure.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/J/derek-jeter.shtml

by JonH on Feb 12, 2006 1:28 PM EST up reply actions

thebaseballcube.com

Rifle, you can go here:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/

Here's Jeter's page:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/J/derek-jeter.shtml

The popups are extremely annoying, but it's a good site to bookmark.

by Flynn Blake on Feb 12, 2006 2:52 PM EST up reply actions

Pawelek over Pie

Having Pawelek over Pie seems a little crazy to me, but that's just me.

by ultxmxpx on Feb 12, 2006 12:07 PM EST reply actions

Dopirak as a C is even worse

sure, he's not a B or a B+, he may not even be a B-. One bad season should not take him from a B+/B type guy to a C. He should have still gotten a C+, especially if Harvey got a C+.

by Ienpw on Feb 12, 2006 12:10 PM EST up reply actions

harvey

I rated Harvey higher than Dopirak because he is more athletic and has more defensive value.

by John Sickels on Feb 12, 2006 12:26 PM EST up reply actions

To me, I like Pawalek over Pie,

Pawalek has #1 potential and is really polished. Pie strikes out way too much and reminds me of another Patterson bust. Plus he had that injury that frightens me.

when your ERA has letters and not numbers, it's a bad thing- kevin goldstein

by WakeboardJock @ Minor League Ball on Feb 12, 2006 1:03 PM EST up reply actions

Cedeno

is not a Derek Jeter type player. For one he is better defensively. Secondly he won't hit 20-25 HR a season. The best comp I can think of is Julio Lugo, a SS that can do a little of everything, but not overly great at anything.

by Ienpw on Feb 12, 2006 12:08 PM EST reply actions

Harvey and Pie

I'd have Harvey as a B-, since he does have some pop(and his ISOP is pretty strong), and he's considered to be an exceptional athlete.

I'd also have Pie ahead of Pawelek, though I agree with your cautious B+ ranking.

by Ian Miller on Feb 12, 2006 1:45 PM EST reply actions

re

Rich Hill still looks a solid B to me. The homeruns at Iowa are a concern. The 20 big league innings? Eh. Almost everybody sucks their first 20 big league innings. The K rate and K/BB rate at AAA were still ridiculous.

by bootsy on Feb 12, 2006 4:25 PM EST reply actions

Hill

I agree. That curve is really impressive. I'm not sure he's going to remain a starter, but he can be a very good set-up guy/elite loogy. I would also boost Sean Marshall to a B, and place him at #4 or 5 on the list. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a breakthrough season.

by bolton on Feb 13, 2006 1:45 AM EST up reply actions

John - Grand Johnson?

Is Grand an upgrade over Grant?

Policeman: Sir, are you classified as human? Korben Dallas: Ah, negative. I am a meat popsicle.

by finman on Feb 12, 2006 5:09 PM EST reply actions

typo

typo. fixed.

by John Sickels on Feb 12, 2006 5:19 PM EST up reply actions

pawelek #1?

a bit surprising, given your philosophy of AA testing grounds for pitchers. wonder if you'll go with pie when you wake up tomorrow! just wondering, where would mitre, pinto and nolasco have ranked if they stayed with the organization?

by primocruz on Feb 12, 2006 5:30 PM EST reply actions

others

Nolaso would be in the top 10. Pinto in the 12-15 range I think.

by John Sickels on Feb 12, 2006 5:41 PM EST up reply actions

Analysis

RONNY CEDENO had an amazing year in 2005. His previous seasons were not good but I think that can be attributed to being younger than the rest of the league. He really matured in 05 and his attitude was wonderful as he was quoted several times saying how much he wanted to still learn about hitting from MLB hitters. As for his potential, I think Ienpw hit the mark perfectly. He's going to be Julio Lugo with a little more power. After suffering from Alex Gonzalez for 3 years and then an injured Nomar/Neifi Perez for another year, I'll take Cedeno in a heartbeat.

ADAM GREENBERG is a personal favorite of mine. I think he can be a premier 4th outfielder as he can play any of the three outfield spots, bats lefty, can provide OBP, and can provide speed. If the Cubs use him in 2007, I think he can be one of the better bench players that the Cubs have had in a while.

DERYCK LEWIS is a sleeper to watch. He was drafted in the 25th round of 2005 from CC. Even though he was only in rookie ball, he hit .322/.382/.460/.842 in his professional debut.

NATE SPEARS offers potential too. He was drafted by the Orioles in 2003 in the 5th round. A left-handed hitter, he plays 2B and is 21-years old in 2006. He will play the season at AA so his age-to-league is good. Though overshadowed by Eric Patterson, he can be good as he is willing to take a walk and his young age provides him great developmental time.

Other notables that offer intriguing possibilities are MIKE FONTENOT (middle infielder with lefty bat and good OBP at AAA), LUIS MONTANEZ (failed SS converted to OF and doing well enough to maybe contribute off the bench one day), GEOVANY SOTO (young, young catcher with good defense and patience but no power at AAA) and JAKE FOX (catcher at AA in 2006 with good power, low strikeout %, and improving defensive skills).

A quick assessment can be made from this list. None of these names are superstar calibre players but they are all guys that can be either starters or contribute from the bench in a positive way. The Cubs have the money to buy superstars and they have the farm to plug in the holes with quality players at certain positions and off the bench. This is important because the Hendry/Baker regime has shown little if any skill at making a quality bench: Troy O'Leary, Tom Goodwin, Lenny Harris, Rey Ordonez, Todd Hollandsworth,... etc.

by ralphwiggum774 on Feb 12, 2006 5:42 PM EST reply actions

Cub's system is not as good as it was a few years

...Just wondering what you guys think about how the Cubs rate now overall compared to a few years ago when they were overflowing with top notch pitching talent...right now it is a lot different...

...Also, John, I am curious to hear about what your thoughts on Hill is? What is his highest ceiling? I've heard Barry Zito comparisons from all over the place but find that hard to believe since he is going to turn 26...is his reason that he doesn't have more ML experience due to being blocked, or, his minor league performance?...Some say he's the closest to being productive at the MLs but I don't expect him to be more than a good reliever with a great curve...

by basemonkey on Feb 12, 2006 7:04 PM EST reply actions

Brownlie off the chart

Is he really that far gone that he can't crack this list? He may not be the Mark Prior type Boras claimed he would be when he held out, but it seemed to me that he was starting to gain velocity and command at Iowa last year.

I expect a better year from him this year, primarily as a reliever. He's still just 24, so it would seem he still has some time to put it all together.

What was the "heckuva job" comment in the book? Didn't get the reference... is that because I haven't read the book straight through, or something that was said about Brownlie specifically?

I am reminded of the immortal words of Socrates, who said, "I drank what?"

by kings33 on Feb 13, 2006 9:32 AM EST reply actions

Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_D._Brown

by dkdc on Feb 13, 2006 10:22 AM EST up reply actions

Thanks

Being apolitical, I never would have picked up on that, but now it all makes sense

I am reminded of the immortal words of Socrates, who said, "I drank what?"

by kings33 on Feb 13, 2006 10:25 AM EST up reply actions

What's the scoop on...

Mike Fontenot? He's shown decent offensive production at AAA (.276/.359/.424 with over 1,000 plate appearances), plus he has some speed and plays solid defense, yet he was not invited to spring training. Does anyone have some additional information on his status?

In addition, does anyone have an idea where Sam Fuld will play this summer? He played for Peoria last summer and put up big numbers. (.300/.377/.433) He also stole 18 bases and he only K'd 44 times in 443 AB's. He's a bit old to be a highly touted prospect (turned 24 this winter), but he was a two-time All American at Stanford. Just curious if he'll make the leap to AA West Tenn?

by ThadBosley27 on Feb 13, 2006 11:10 AM EST reply actions

murton

I thought he'd be a .280ish guy with decent power.

by John Sickels on Feb 13, 2006 11:27 AM EST reply actions

Why is Ryan Harvey ...

ranked so high, this guy has Jason Dubois written all over him? I realize that 100 RBI is impressive, but he had Sam Fuld (.300/.377/.433 with 18 SB and 82 Runs) and Eric Patterson (.333/.405/.535 with 40 SB and 90 Runs) batting in front of him all season.

His numbers .257/.302/.484 aren't that impressive and he was primarily used as a DH, meaning he has no defensive position. Bottom line, the guy K'd 137 times in 467 AB's (once every 3.4 AB's) and this is playing mid-A level baseball, where good curves, hard sliders and well spotted fastballs don't exist.

by ThadBosley27 on Feb 13, 2006 12:06 PM EST reply actions

Sam Fuld

Fuld was 23 in Low-A. He's already 24 now. Harvey was 20 most of the season. Fuld had 4 years of Pac 10 baseball too.

by Ienpw on Feb 13, 2006 8:29 PM EST up reply actions

Anybody else...

...concerned about the Cubs giving up their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks to sign 3 mediocre free agents this offseason? This draft doesn't look to offer a lot of superstar talent but should have a lot of depth through the 3rd round, which the Cubs will miss out on of course.

Also, does this system have trouble developing hitters or do they focus too much on drafting pitchers?

"When people talk, listen completely. Most people never listen." (Hemingway)

by jmoultz on Feb 13, 2006 12:11 PM EST reply actions

fyi

he (Harvey) was primarily used as a DH, meaning he has no defensive position.

This is incorrect. Harvey is actually a very good defender and profiles as a prototypical rightfielder. He has good wheels (despite the knee injury in high school which he should finally be all the way back from this year) and a cannon for an arm. The bat might be a different story but all indications are that he's better than he showed last year.

"When people talk, listen completely. Most people never listen." (Hemingway)

by jmoultz on Feb 13, 2006 12:15 PM EST reply actions

Thanks

for the scoop. I went through several of Peoria's box scores from last season and noticed that Harvey was often used as the DH. Good to know that he has some defensive skills.

by ThadBosley27 on Feb 13, 2006 1:26 PM EST up reply actions

Matt Murton

John,
What grade would you give Murton? What are your thoughts on him? He barely was over the 150 PA limit. As an aside, I wish you could rate guys (for one last year) who made their MLB debuts but exceeded the rookie limits....guys like Murton, Burgos, etc.

by BaseballBrain on Feb 13, 2006 2:31 PM EST reply actions

murton

Murton....B or B+.

by John Sickels on Feb 13, 2006 3:14 PM EST up reply actions

Ryu

Pretty high ranking for him. Is this the result of improvement on his part or a weak system? Do you see him in the majors if the yearly injury bug starts to spread on the big club?

by TCapone30 on Feb 13, 2006 2:34 PM EST reply actions

command

major improvement in his command last year led to better grade.

Yes, if they need a pitcher he will be a candidate.

by John Sickels on Feb 13, 2006 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

Guzman question for John

I've heard that Guzman flashes a plus fastball, curve, and change when healthy, is this still true John?

"When people talk, listen completely. Most people never listen." (Hemingway)

by jmoultz on Feb 13, 2006 3:23 PM EST reply actions

stuff

His stuff is reportedly back to normal. But I still worry about his health.

by John Sickels on Feb 13, 2006 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

When a team pulls a Cubs this off season....

and burns those 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round draft choices, can't they just target those slots money to the "signability" guys that always fall? Or get one of the big foreign bidding war guys?

Of course, if you really are out of money after signing Howry, Eyre, etc....then you deserve to not get anybody.

"Strikeouts are good...groundballs are better. Home runs are okay...but walks SUCK!" Mike Caldwell

by Torncuff on Feb 19, 2006 9:40 PM EST reply actions