Francisco Liriano's value

by DrunkIrish on Feb 11, 2006 6:44 PM EST Comment 39 comments

Liriano is universally held as a top pitching prospect. This is because he has the tools and ability to become one of the best starters in baseball. He has, however, a pretty rocky injury history, and has the risk that comes from being a young pitcher.

Right now Liriano's value is just about as high as a (non-Felix/Prior)pitching prospect's can get. If you have Liriano, do you trade him while his value is high, or do you keep him in hopes of his becoming Jake Peavy/Johan Santana-lite?

I guess this is a question of pitching prospects vs. position prospects. If you can trade Liriano for a Daric Barton/Brandon Wood mid-tier blue chip prospect, do you do it? Or would you rather roll the dice and hope Liriano comes up a winner? Who's an example of the lowest prospect you might trade him for?

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Tough question...

...As far as the lowest prospect i'd trade him for. I think he'll stay healthy but you can't be sure. Barton would be tough to turn down because I think he's going to be a truly great big league hitter. He might be the lowest i'd consider though or should say...his position...if it is first-base. Brandon Wood would be tough to turn down. Not my kind of trade though. keep Liriano and find another way to gey Wood...LOL

casedog

by casejud on Feb 11, 2006 7:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Be Careful

I have Daric Barton on my team and if whatever team that drafts Liriano this year at my draft offered Liriano straight up for Barton I would do it in a second.

I love Barton, and it was a steal for my co-owner and I to get him in the 8th last year, but Liriano has the chance to be special. I also have a lot of great first basemen on my major league roster (Derrick Lee, Carlos Delgado, Mark Teixiera.) It would be hard for Barton to be anything more than a backup on my starting roster.

Take it from somebody who once traded Pedro Martinez for Delgado, Todd Walker and Alex Ochoa (I know you guys remember him) be careful trading young pitching.

It took years for my team to rebound from that trade.

by The Scout on Feb 11, 2006 7:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Roto or Real

If you are talking about a roto team this year, Liriano will likely start the year at AAA. So you would probably trade him for a prospect without anyone ahead of him.

In real life, you don't trade prime prospects under any conditions unless you are the Yankees and can sign whatever top free agents you want in their prime. I think Liriano fits in that group. He has the potential to be a regular Cy Young winner. He probably won't reach that level, but having those kinds of players is what wins championships. You don't give them up.

by TT on Feb 11, 2006 7:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Give me an example

Give me an example of the Yankees trading a "prime prospect" in recent years.

Eric Milton?

Nick Johnson maybe, but at the time he was a regular everyday player.

by The Scout on Feb 11, 2006 7:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yankees

Give me an example of the Yankees trading a "prime prospect" in recent years.

Its hard to think how the Yankees have had as a prime prospect in recent years. I don't think either Milton or Johnson fits into the "might be a hall of fame candidate" category.

I wasn't taking a shot at the Yankees, only pointing out that they can get guys like Alex Rodriguez in the marketplace (in that case by trade). Most teams don't have that luxury. Or if they do, its pretty limited.

by TT on Feb 11, 2006 8:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

List

Go through this list. Check out how many top 100 prospects the Yanks have traded when they were still good prospects. It's not their fault none of them ever panned out, except maybe Pena and Rivera...

by Brickhaus on Feb 11, 2006 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dumb@ss

Yeah, the link

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/at100.html

by Brickhaus on Feb 11, 2006 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2006 List

When does BA's top 100 list come out anyways?

by ultxmxpx on Feb 11, 2006 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ba 100

it's due for the next issue, so around feb. 23, is what i remember reading.

by wily mo on Feb 12, 2006 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Navarro

Navarro -- last offseason

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 11, 2006 8:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

haha

Cubsfan - that was a good one. I hope it was a joke at least. :))))

by pedrophile on Feb 11, 2006 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yes

It was but thats the only prospect they really have traded because their system is barren right now the 2005 draft seemingly was a good draft for the Yankees as most of their "top specs" were from the 2005 draft :) Navarro was just the only guy other than Justin Berg that the Yankees have dealt in the last year

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 11, 2006 8:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

pithcing prospects are risky

but his upside is just too great to let go.
200 K's is rare and he has that potential.

http://oaklandprospects.blogspot.com/

by novaoakland on Feb 11, 2006 10:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pitching prospects

Pitching prospects never get return value. It is too risky in almost all cases. GM's overrate their own and devalue others. Until a guy has a breakout year in the pros his value is very limited. Just think that this offseason Gio was moved like a throw-in to the Phills and he was a high rated guy. I think you only trade top pitching prospects in dire trades, because of extreme low return.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 11, 2006 11:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

keep liriano

-----------------------------------------------
Pitching prospects never get return value. It is too risky in almost all cases. GM's overrate their own and devalue others.
---------------------------------------------

I agree. For example, Texas couldn't get the name of 'Liriano' off their lips when Minnesota was discussing the topic of Alfonso Soriano. Other GMs had that very problem when Terry Ryan called with inquiries this past season and off-season. I wonder if Liriano's existence stopped any deals from getting done because everyone wanted to take a potential franchise player away from the GM who's been taking the league to the cleaners via trades for years now?

I keep Liriano. It's certainly possible that he could flame out by the age of 25, but barring that, his projectible pitching skills earmark him as one of this generation's greats. .

by steve johnson on Feb 13, 2006 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I just drafted Liriano

What a timely topic.

In my Strato draft, I had the third pick. The guy ahead of me was prepared to take Liriano but I moved up a slot and took him.

The guy took Wood with my former pick.

I debated for months about which one to take and I still don't know if I made the right decision, but I have Peralta and Crosby at SS so I figured Wood may not move in even when ready.

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Feb 12, 2006 9:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Liriano

He's a special and rare pitcher. But he's also a pitching prospect.

I wouldn't trade him straight up for Barton or Wood. But if you could get Barton and a slightly lower pitching prospect like Christian Garcia, it's something you gotta think about.

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad on Feb 12, 2006 10:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Liriano

Having watched him pitch several times, I can say he's the best pitching prospect I've ever seen. Santana was a good prospect, but I was surprised when he put together the Cy Young year. I would not be surprised if Liriano puts together a Cy Young year in the next three or four years. And he will be a #2 starter by 2007. Why anyone would trade that kind of guy for anyone is beyond me. Some morons complaied that Ryan didn't send him to the Rangers for Hank Blalock. It's times like these when I apprecitate a GM ho understands the value of starting pitching.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 12, 2006 3:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ever seen Felix?

by jc3 on Feb 12, 2006 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, I've seen Felix

Felix is good. He's got a great combination of stuff and control, especially for his age. I saw him throw a shutout in his second major league start. But he doesn't have as high of a ceiling as Liriano. Liriano thows 96 with movement on his fastball, and that's not even his best pitch. His best pitch is an 89 mph slider that is unhittable. And he can show a very good change-up if hitters are sitting on the fastball. Felix is ahead of Liriano right now becuase he has excellent control and Liriano merely has good control. But if Liriano gets better control, even Santana-like control, he'll be better than Santana.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 12, 2006 8:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have to agree with others

I've seen Liriano the same number of times as you and agree he's a very, very special prospect. But Felix has even more pitches, throws harder, has better control, possibly a better slider, and is younger (presumably). Given a choice between the two, I'd take Felix in a heartbeat, and you know I'm a huge Twins fan.

I also had my strato draft this weekend, lost out on a much needed Nick Johnson, and was left with no one to pick in the third round--so I added Liriano to Felix, Peavy, Halladay, Bonderman, and Santana. Yes, it's a superstar league.

by tmelander on Feb 13, 2006 5:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A little surprised by your statement, cmathewson!

Hello cmathewson,

I'm a little surprised by this statement:

"But he doesn't have as high of a ceiling as Liriano."

Granted, Liriano is a great pitcher in his own right, but I think Felix at least has as good of a ceiling as Liriano, if not higher himself.

Felix will be 20 in April 2006, Liriano will be 22 for the 2006 season.

Both have three great pitches. As I recall, like Liriano, Felix's fastball is not his best pitch. I believe it's that slider that the Mariners won't let him throw until he's older because the pitch is supposedly very nasty.

I don't remember if his third pitch is a solid changeup but it's supposedly a good pitch also.

Looking at both of their stats, if you're talking about strikeouts, I can see why you think Liriano might be higher than Felix, since Liriano may top out over 200 Ks, whereas Felix may strike out about 150-180 Ks in 200+ IP based on his 2005 stats if you project them out (though Felix's strikeouts may rise with more experience as well,) but in terms of stuff, I think both are comparable, and with Felix's younger age and more projection, I would think, by a very small margin, Felix's ceiling may be higher than Liriano's.

Again though, it's very close!

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

by indiansfan on Feb 12, 2006 8:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Felix

Felix acutally has 4 above-average pitches. His fastball is sits at 96, and has a nasty curve. His change is solid. And then theres the slider, which everone says is his best pitch, and he doesn't even throw it during games.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Feb 12, 2006 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Felix

His fastball has more velocity than Liriano. And while people talk about Liriano throwing 96 I would like to know what he sits at not what he touches. Also, Liriano has has injury problems and had 190 innings pitched last year so a big concern.

Felix has a better slider than Liriano.

Felix has a plus curveball.

I think Felix changeup is not plus yet but has potential to be there.

One other thing. Some pitchers have high strikeouts and poor control. And then people talk about "just improving" the control. Many times the strikeouts are a result of the control and when it is tightened the strikeouts go down.

Liriano is a top prospect no doubt. But he does have a serious injury risk IMO.

by pedrophile on Feb 12, 2006 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BA

BA says that his fastball is usually between 94-96 and touches 98.

Felix's fastball sits between 96-97 and touches 99.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Feb 12, 2006 11:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BA Top 100

Are you sure Baseball America's Top 100 issue is coming out on Feb. 23?

I have not even received my AL Central top 10 issue yet.

Has anybody else received that issue?

by The Scout on Feb 13, 2006 12:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I stand corrected

When I saw Felix, he was sitting at 94. He only threw two pitches, the fastball and the change-up, which, as someone said, is all the Mariners want him to throw right now. Against the feeble Twins, he threw a 2-hitter with those two pitches. I don't think he even broke a sweat throwing an 89-pitch complete game shutout.

Perhaps he didn't break out the good fastball that day because he didn't need to. Both guys have huge upside, but if Felix throws like BA says, he's the better prospect.

I do question the notion that Felix has a better slider. Liriano's slider is so nasty it's hard to imaging a nastier one. Think of Joe Nathan's slider from a left hander and you have Liriano's slider.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 13, 2006 9:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Felix

His slider is supposedly his best pitch, but he's not allowed to throw it in games yet.

Also: Aside from pure stuff, where they are at least equal, possibly better for Felix, Hernandez is just amazing at killing the bats that make contact against him.

I remember one of his first starts against the A's. He was throwing 97 heat regularly. Then hitters would be way off balance on his mid 80's changeup. And NOBODY could make solid contact. Everything was a weak ground ball to second. Granted, the A's were slumping at the time. But still. Nobody seems to be able to hit the ball WELL. He just gets so many ground balls. I was simply amazed. As an A's fan, that's the type of performances i only saw from Rich Harden, who has similar "weak ground ball" type abilities. But Felix is better, with better control of his pitches.

No question in my mind.

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad on Feb 13, 2006 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Felix

With Liriano he is a very good pitching prospects. One of the best. He has a few questions but not many.

With Felix I would not be suprised to see him win the Cy Young award this year. The last time we really saw someone come up like this was Gooden IMO.

When the one person saw him throw just fastball/changeup they mentioned that the team was not hitting. Felixs' changeup is his worse pitch. Either his curveball was not working that day or Seattle brass is forcing him to work on his change. And he still shutout a major league team. Wow!

And when people mention injury for Felix there is really only one reason they do this. Because he does not have a single weakness.

by pedrophile on Feb 13, 2006 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Felix

Yes, he was mixing in his curveball as well, which produced many swing and misses. I think he was working real hard on the changer though.

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad on Feb 14, 2006 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm a twins fan...

I would trade Liriano forsure for Felix....

That said I think they both are excellent prospects.

I think Felix has more upside and could be a once in a decade type..

Liriano can be an all star though many times, and potentially win some cy youngs, his stuff is filthy.

Both have Ace type stuff and make up, Felix just has a bit more in his arsenal.

But a Johan/Liriano...lefty/lefty combo makes me shudder, although I probably won't get to see much of it as they will contract my twinkies.

by hotshotschamp on Feb 13, 2006 4:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Contraction

I was about to post this on your other thread. I wouldn't count on contraction just yet. My understanding is the Hennepin County deal can still get done. And for the first time, the Governor undertands that there's a real threat of losing major league baseball. before the Twins got out of their lease, he was omplacent. Last year it was last on the agenda. This year it's near the top.

But in a recent meeting, he was the one who brought up contraction, not the owner. So he understands the urgency. It's like the Ford plant, it took Ford threatening to shut it down before the Gov actually did anything to keep it. But he understands that he can't balance his budget without the estimated $1 billion in commerce the stadium will bring in in the first year (counting construction) plus around $250 milion per year indefinitely.

Chill. It'll get done this time. Write your senator (they already have enough votse in the House).

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 13, 2006 4:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

well

nothing gets done ...

we'll keep hearing it will eventually get done and be saved last minute...as they are cleaning out their lockers and relocating...

Last minute stuff doesn't always fall through, especially in a city like this, who have stubborn people in high offices.

by hotshotschamp on Feb 13, 2006 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Come on...

No one's contracting the Twins. If any teams were contracted (and they won't be, it would be a DISASTER for Selig, as he realized years ago) it would be the Nats and the Royals, or Nats/Marlins to bring the NL down to 14 teams.

But it WON'T HAPPEN. Not because some hack journalist writes a story about its possibility, and not otherwise. No MLB teams are going to get contracted.

Now, let's talk about some prospects.

by DrunkIrish on Feb 13, 2006 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs