cups of coffee

by bolton on Feb 10, 2006 8:17 PM EST Comment 24 comments

One thing that trips me up when evaluating a minor leaguer is an exceptional or horrible late-season move up to the next level. For example, Stephen Drew was amazing in the hitter-friendly Cal League and terrible in the Southern League. I think Baseball America said he was tired, but how do they really know? Travis Denker was great in low-A and then fell apart in his brief time at High-A. Many are chalking it up to his flaws being exposed at a higher level, with fatigue not mentioned as a factor. On the other hand, Blake Dewitt wasn't that great in low-A and then had a fantastic 31 at-bats in Vero Beach. I've never been on the Dewitt bandwagon, but now I'm wondering if I should be.
The question: How much stock should one put in these brief trials? When is a failed trial important (as it is to those who've abandoned Denker) and when should it be irrelevant because of small sample size (Drew).

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dewitt

"On the other hand, Blake Dewitt wasn't that great in low-A and then had a fantastic 31 at-bats in Vero Beach. I've never been on the Dewitt bandwagon, but now I'm wondering if I should be."

dewitt had a horrible may because of bruised ribs and wrong contact lenses (could not see the ball during night games apparently)

in his last 276ABs before being called up to vero, dewitt hit: .300/.355/.464 23bb 44K

so it wasnt like he just caught on fire when he went to vero, he was already hitting pretty darn good for the last 3 months before reaching vero

by npurcell on Feb 10, 2006 8:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Stats

Can you tell me the website where you can get stats starting from a certain point? I forgot the website..

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad on Feb 11, 2006 4:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i did it myself

when i was bored one day, i went through the boxscores and loaded each game onto excel.

by npurcell on Feb 11, 2006 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

blake

Doesn't really answer my question, but thanks for the stats and medical info. I wasn't aware of those factors. I had the same problem during night games when I was a 14-year-old shortstop. I didn't realize I needed glasses and made seven errors in a twi-night doubleheader. An embarrassing night.

by bolton on Feb 10, 2006 8:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

what i was saying

is that dewitt didnt all of a sudden started hitting once he hit vero. he was hitting extremely well before that over a 275+ AB sample size.

but for denkers case. you shouldnt worry too much. look at andy laroche in 2004. he was hitting 283/375/.525 in 244 ABs at columbus then he was called up to vero and hit an abysmal .237/.295/.434

then the next season, he absolutely destroyed FSL pitching hitting .333/.380/.651

i think denker might be on a similar development curve as laroche.

by npurcell on Feb 10, 2006 8:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ok

But many have pointed to Denker's Vero Beach numbers as a giant red flag, and I have yet to see anyone describe Drew's Southern League numbers as a red flag. I presume it's because Drew was a first-round pick, but I wanted to know if there is more to it than that, and how much weight others put on these brief trials when determining their personal top-50 or 100 prospects.

by bolton on Feb 10, 2006 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Drew

Im not sure if I understand why Drew is getting tired after all of 38 games played in the california league. If anything this isnt an excuse, its a negative mark against his endurance. Really, it sounds kind of bogus to me. Odd how the first round pick was "tired" when he struggled, but the 21st round pick (Denker) was "exposed".

I think the main thing to keep in mind is age-relative to league. Drew, as a 22 year old, polished, college hitter, should've dominated low-A pitchers. With his pedigree and scouting reports, he was expected to do much better at the AA level. Denker on the other hand was 19 years old last season, young for low-A, let alone high-A.

by sanchez101 on Feb 10, 2006 10:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Denker

I head Denker's defense is really, really horrible and he won't have a chance at staying at 2nd... maybe not even good enough for 1st base.

by ultxmxpx on Feb 10, 2006 10:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Drew

The point that was being made, was that after a long lay off he wasn't in the best shape. So after he played 65 games, some in the Indy league, he was a bit tired. Afterall every college bat doesn't come right in and beat up AA pitching, but they do hit High A if they are anything.

by hybrid on Feb 11, 2006 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Drew

was hurt in AA--don't dismiss the injury factor as well.

by So Cal Bob on Feb 11, 2006 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My answer

In my statistical evaluations of players, I weight a player's stats from different levels of ball according the # of ABs at each level and factor in age vs. level to come up w overall numbers. Then, I see what BA and maybe some other reputable sources have to say about him and adjusted my rankings accordingly. So, my answer is I give the stats from the 'cup of coffee' no more 'stock' than warranted by the # of ABs he got, whether he did good or bad.

by rhd on Feb 10, 2006 9:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

brandon wood

I'll be interested to see <1>If Wood can keep posting those goudy numbers as he climbs the ladder towards the big leagues and <2>If he indeed lives up to the hype. Similarly with Stephen Drew. It's amazing how players become the "next great thing" after one season. Don't get me wrong I'm not bashing either of these players but at the same time I'm not ready to anointe either of them, yet. It's a marathon not a sprint.

by wmb72 on Feb 11, 2006 11:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Drew

Somewhat because of his pedigree, I've been hearing about Drew for years.

by BobbyMac on Feb 11, 2006 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Drew WASN'T terrible...

27 games at AA, mind you...he had 13 Rbi's, 11 runs...22hits, 9 of which were for extra bases...and Drew drew 12 walks in 101 Ab's. He contributed on offense and played shortstop. gotta look deeper in such a small sample size. Just like his AWESOME stats at Lancaster, for that matter. Perhaps combining the two would give you the most reasonable representation of his abilities. Just my opinion. Looks like one HELL of a player to me.

casedog

by casejud on Feb 11, 2006 1:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

AFL

Didn't Stephen Drew light up the AFL too? Of course, almost everybody lights up the AFL!

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 11, 2006 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

like you said

everyone lit up the AFL.

by npurcell on Feb 11, 2006 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

AFL?

It is true that AFL stats are (very much) inflated, but some VERY good hitters didn't do so well. Here are some notables, including some of the good hitters among others:

Lind .238/.297/.333
Butler .252/.330/.476
C.Young .253/.326/.401
J.Fields .256/.317/.489
D.Barton .267/.429/.400
Saltalamacchia .288/.386/.438

(BA/OBA/SLG)

by BobbyMac on Feb 11, 2006 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just sounds like you don't like Drew

To me it sounds like you have something against Drew. I mean you can't think that Denker is the better prospect and that BA and John and everybody else is just getting it wrong.

Drew is a good prospect. Yes, he didn't hit in Double-A but don't forget it was the first baseball he was playing since being drafted 2 years ago. Not to mention 83 at bats for the Indy League.

It may be true that players like Drew sometimes get the benefit of the doubt because of history, potential, and simply because they "look" more like prospects.

Some people just look like they have talent.

by The Scout on Feb 11, 2006 7:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

not anti-drew

I don't have anything against Drew and I'm not keen on Denker. I was just looking for examples and they came to mind. I wonder if anyone has taken a statistical look to see if these 100 at-bat trials are a good barometer for an upcoming season?

As a side example, I wonder if the Braves would have traded Marte if he tore up the NL during his brief trial? I don't think they would have. So as much as we might dismiss a small sample size, I think these snapshots sometimes lead to important decisions.

by bolton on Feb 11, 2006 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Adjustment or Overpowered

t is true that AFL stats are (very much) inflated, but some VERY good hitters didn't do so well.

I don't think it is just that AFL stats are inflated, they are unreliable in general.

In terms of jumping a level, a lot depends on why a player struggles. Is he overpowered by better players or just needing to adjust. Hitters who use patience as a weapon in the low minors to get grooved fastballs can find themselves in trouble at AA if that is really all they can hit. On the other hand, a player who is patient and can hit a variety of pitches may just need to adjust to seeing more strikes and start swinging at pitches he would have taken in A ball.

by TT on Feb 11, 2006 8:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

AFL Pitchers

One thing about the AFL is that it is such a hitter's league that if a pitcher does very well it is noteworthy. That's why Loewen's performance there may have pushed his stock up signifcantly.

by rhd on Feb 11, 2006 9:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree

And I also get concerned about a hitter that looks overmatched.

by bolton on Feb 11, 2006 9:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Same with

Glen Perkins, Shane Komine and Jamie Shields....

by The Rocc on Feb 12, 2006 2:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

AFL Pitchers

I think how well pitchers do in the AFL has more to do with what pitches they rely on. Guys who rely on sinking fastballs that get a lot of ground balls are going to do better in the AFL. Guys whose best pitch is a breaking ball are probably going to do worst. THat's just a guess based on the impact of thin air.

by TT on Feb 12, 2006 11:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs