BA's Twins Top 10

by Sulla on Feb 1, 2006 10:25 AM EST Comment 26 comments

Francisco Liriano, lhp
Jason Kubel, of
Matt Moses, 3b
Glen Perkins, lhp
Anthony Swarzak, rhp
Denard Span, of
Matt Garza, rhp
Jay Rainville, rhp
Trevor Plouffe, ss
Kyle Waldrop, rhp

I'm not as big a fan of Span and Rainville as some are. I'm also starting to have serious doubts about Matt Moses.

0 recs | Comment 26 comments |

Comments

Alex Romero

Just thought I would mention that BP likes this 22 year old in 06, projecting him at this line: .287/.339/.437 (14.6 vorp). Better than league-average, I think.

I know, I know, everyone calls him a 'tweener, and questions his power development. But BP's IsoP of ~.150 matches his Eastern League line (.301/.354/.458 in 560 PAs). And, from what I hear, he's an asset, defensively, on the corners.

Why no love for the kid?

by Azteca on Feb 1, 2006 10:31 AM EST reply actions

agreed

romero is an underrated prospect; i think he will be an average major leaguer. span, way overrated (in my opinion). does anybody remember brian L hunter? that's who he reminds me of.

by jpahk on Feb 1, 2006 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

I remember....

Brian Hunter. Speaking of which, does anyone know why a guy who could hit .372/.433/.520 at Tuscon at age 23 could only once hit even .272 in a full season (.276, and he also had a .302 half-season)? And why his career OBP is .313?

Are there indicators that guys like Hunter (or Span) are going to not quite get over the hump? I know that completely lacking power can be an indicator, but Otis (.314 career slugging) Nixon had a .343 OBP, so it's not guaranteed that lacking power will undermine a guy's ability to get on base.

I probably need to do more reading on the topic of "failed prospects". To my recollection, nobody predicted Hunter to fail completely, even his worst critics. He was mentioned in the same breath with Kenny Lofton (not as peers, but sort of as "The Astros may not have Lofton, but at least they have Hunter").

When you've solved this mystery, Exhibit 2 is Ben Grieve. :>

Anyway, I haven't seen Span play. The numbers are close enough that I can see some resemblance to Hunter. It sounds like I'll get to see him in AAA this year.

by BobbyMac on Feb 1, 2006 11:24 PM EST up reply actions

Hunter

To my recollection, nobody predicted Hunter to fail completely, even his worst critics.

He not only didn't fail completely, he would have to be considered a successful prospect. He had a ten year career, appearing in 1000 games with over 3000 at bats. At least that's what Baseball Cube says. Most minor league teams only have three or four players who will even appear in the major leagues.

by TT on Feb 2, 2006 10:22 AM EST up reply actions

Good point.

"fail completely" was overstated. And he played good defense for those games too. My point was more that to get Nook Logan when a team is - rightly or wrongly - expecting a vague semblance of Kenny Lofton is pretty disappointing.

by BobbyMac on Feb 2, 2006 10:15 PM EST up reply actions

Top Prospects

My only point was that "top prospect" seems to get translated to major league star. Top prospects are projected based on how good they could be if they successfully build on their current skills. But most players won't reach that projection.

And even most top prospects are not going to be major league regulars, muchless annual allstars. There are only a small number of the very best prospects that have the tools that would give them much chance at being allstars at all. And most of them won't develop those tools to the level needed to play in the major leagues.

by TT on Feb 3, 2006 9:28 AM EST up reply actions

Depends on your definition of "top"

I posted an analysis of John's prospect lists from 96-99. Of the 19 prospects (20 slots) ranked in the top 5, the bottom three were Paul Wilson, Rick Ankiel and J.D. Drew.

About 50% became stars and the remainder were solid starters.

The vast majority of John's top prospects do pan out if you define top sufficiently carefully. The problem is that people expect the 30th best prospect to pan out as well, and there the odds are much worse. Still notably above zero though.

by cdamon on Feb 3, 2006 10:13 AM EST up reply actions

Top Prospects

"Depends on your definition of "top""

I agree. The top five guys in the minor leagues on most lists have already developed the skills to go with their superior tools. Unless they get hurt or have Ankiel's kinds of problems they are very likely going to be major league regulars.

"The problem is that people expect the 30th best prospect to pan out as well"

Agreed.

by TT on Feb 3, 2006 5:57 PM EST up reply actions

Hunter

actually started out reasonably. He was a better than league average hitter his first year (95) with a legitimate number of ABs, when he put up 6 BRAA on a 276 EqA. With his speed and above average defense, that made him a useful player.

Unfortunately that was his only year with positive BRAA. He was an adequate backup, the next two years, putting up positive BRAR, still with above average defense and of course the speed for pinchrunning.

He then put up 5 straight years at or below replacement level offense. He did manage 2 more years above replacement level in his 30's before finally hanging it up.

Including his year in Tucson, he just looks like he peaked in his early 20's. If you shift the curve 3 years, it would not look that odd. Much like Grieve. But he certainly can't be accused of having old player skills. And his peak was lower than Grieve's, so he was even worse when he lost it.

Because he had been well regarded and had the speed, he got many more chances that his skills deserved.

TT - have you seen something that gives a number of future major leaguers per minor league team? Your 2-3 feels low. Maybe at SS level? For more than a cup of coffee?

by cdamon on Feb 2, 2006 11:16 AM EST up reply actions

Successful Prospects

"TT - have you seen something that gives a number of future major leaguers per minor league team? Your 2-3 feels low. Maybe at SS level? For more than a cup of coffee?"

No. I don't have any study on it. It probably is a little low if you include guys who just get a September callup. And the average is certainly higher if you count the AAAA players on AAA rosters. But I think if you look at teams' minor league rosters from five or six years ago you will find there aren't many organizations that had over 15 prospects who have made it to the big leagues.

by TT on Feb 2, 2006 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

Span and Hunter

Hunter was playing his second year of high A ball at the same age as Span last year. Span started at A ball but was quickly called up to AA after putting up an OBP of .410. At least at this point, Span looks like a much better prospect.

As for Hunter's numbers at Tucson, well that's the PCL isn't it? The ball really carries in that high desert air.

by TT on Feb 2, 2006 10:11 AM EST up reply actions

Moses

I am going the other way on Moses. I think this is going to be his breakout year when he turns into one of the elite prospects in all of baseball.

No one has ever questioned his bat, the x factor for Moses has always been his health. Since he signed in 2003, he has lost at bats every year because of injury and that has stunted his development as he has moved up the system. Despite injuries, he has made it to AA as a 20 year old and despite a slow start, put up decent ratios and his performance picked up the last month or so. IF IF IF he can stay healthy, this could be a nice consolidation year for him at AA (or if he rakes, he could end up in AAA by midseason), and I would not be suprised to see him put numbers up that would be in the ballpark of Wood and other hitters of that ilk.

Minnesota Twins - 2006 World Series Champions

by drjim on Feb 1, 2006 10:36 AM EST reply actions

re

This will be a big year for Spann. If he puts up good #s in AA (good, I mean .280/.350/.400), then he has to be considered an elite leadoff prospect due to his great speed.

I think Spann still has tons of untapped potential, and I mean Lofton type potential. I saw him in the Perfect Game Showcase when he was at Tampa Catholic and the kid hit some BOMBS. He was hitting them almost as far as guys like Elijah Dukes. I even heard a scout mumble that Spann had the same body type that Bonds had at the same age. Now, any Bonds comps are crazy, but it seems that Spann was content last year to slash the ball and put it into play utilizing his speed. Once this kid gets comfortable I think he can expand his game and once again show that power. Maybe not 20 homer power, but definately 10-15 jacks.

by ScottAZ on Feb 1, 2006 10:52 AM EST reply actions

Span In 2006

Will most likely start the season at AAA. The Twins aren't too optimistic that Torii Hunter will be holding down CF for the Twins past 2006, so I think, along with BA, that Span will start 2006 at AAA Rochester.

by Blyleven4HOF on Feb 1, 2006 1:09 PM EST up reply actions

Little Rock

The Twins signed Tim Raines, Jr., yesterday to a minor league deal. I suspect he'll start in center field for the Red Wings. I believe they still have Tyner around, as well. So I suspect Span will be at AA.

by jianfu on Feb 1, 2006 1:15 PM EST up reply actions

sick D

Span can cover more ground in the outfield then anyone I have ever seen. It was mind blowing watching him run down ball, after ball in the gap.

by Josh on Feb 2, 2006 6:27 PM EST up reply actions

Position Players

Once this kid gets comfortable I think he can expand his game and once again show that power.

I think the Twins have been working to get Span to go in the other direction, getting him to realize he isn't a power hitter and use his speed to get on base. That seems to be working.

Romero <u>is</u> a tweener which is why everyone says it. He doesn't have the pop needed to be a productive corner outfielder or to compensate for his defense in center.

I think Moses has the possibility of a breakout year, but he doesn't need one this year to remain a top prospect.

What's interesting is that people keep talking about how deep the Twins are in pitching but they need position players. This list has four position players in the top ten - three of them at AA or above last year. Kubel is a legitimate ROY candidate this year if he is healthy.

by TT on Feb 1, 2006 11:09 AM EST reply actions

Moses

I am a season ticket holder in AA New britain. I watched Moses about 40 times after the callup.
He just seemed like a waste!! Never seemed comfortable at the plate.
His defense at the corner is nothing to write home about. He has a real hard time going back on balls, especially to his left. Minimal range.

He does walk with a bit of a swagger, as most first rounders do, but I get the impression its the makeup isnt quite there. I get to many games 2 hours before, and see guys getting extra BP, work with the hitting coach, or simply batting tee time pregame. I have never seen Moses once on the field working to get better.
I even spoke to a prominent scout from a prominent North East team, and was not impressed at all and question his ethic. He is a mistake hitter, and more advanced pitching will eat him alive.
Im waiting to see DAvid Winfree at 3b. I've never seen him, but Feel e could be the 3b of the future. He was twins ML player of the year, and doesnt show up anywhere on any list.

Just one mans opinion....

by davidcalan1 on Feb 1, 2006 11:22 AM EST reply actions

Waldrop

I don't have many problems with this list, with the exception of Waldrop. He really struggled at Beloit. I would put four or five pitchers ahead of him who are not on this list: Jones, Slowey, Morlan, Mijares, and possibly Harben.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 1, 2006 12:24 PM EST reply actions

confirm

I can confirm that waldrop didn't look real good. He struggled against anyone that could hit a fastball.

by Josh on Feb 2, 2006 6:30 PM EST up reply actions

Moses and Romero

I too think this is a pivital year for Moses. He could be one of the top 5 third base prospects going into 2007. Romero looks like a decent and usefull hitter, but nothing special as a corner outfielder, and I don't think he can cover center.

by steve johnson on Feb 1, 2006 4:25 PM EST reply actions

Romero

I think people are too pessimistic when labeling Romero as a tweener. He really added to his power production last year at AA, I know 48 extra-base hits isnt great but it is a vast improvement from his past and he was only 21. Plus I've heard several reports that he is now a more coachable player.

by joeywyen on Feb 1, 2006 4:41 PM EST reply actions

Romero's development

I usually look for players to dominate in the high minors before I get my hopes up about them. I haven't seen that yet from Romero, but he has improved steadily in the last three years. Given that improvement curve, he could be dominating in AAA by the end of 2006. Stranger things have happened. The most encouraging signs for me are his second-half numbers at New Britain. He started very slowly, but improved week to week and really turned it on after the ALl-Star break. It's as close to being dominant as any time in his career. If he progresses at this rate and continues to fill out and develop power, I could see him making his ML debut in 2007 as a 24 year old.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Feb 2, 2006 5:02 PM EST up reply actions