2007 Toronto Blue Jays Prospects

2007 Toronto Blue Jays Prospects
- Adam Lind, OF, Grade A- (his bat is not a fluke)
- Travis Snider, OF, Grade A- (outstanding hitter)
- Ricky Romero, LHP, B (I think he'll rebound)
- Curtis Thigpen, C, B- (good bat, good glove, lacks home run power)
- Ryan Patterson, OF, C+ (tons of power, but could end up like Ryan Ludwick)
- David Purcey, LHP, C+ (great arm, command a problem)
- Jesse Litsch, RHP, C+ (good command, but stuff isn't the best)
- Brandon Magee, RHP, C+ (good arm, good command, but already 23)
- Davis Romero, LHP, C+ (Short but a good pitcher)
- Kyle Yates, RHP, C+ (excellent curve)
- Josh Banks, RHP, C+ (good command, but stuff isn't thebest)
- Jean Machi, RHP, C+ (good arm, nice free agent pickup)
- Chi-Hung Cheng, LHP, C+ (will have to prove himself at higher levels)
- Anthony Hatch, INF, C+ (promising bat)
- Dustin Majewski, OF, C+ (drew 100 walks, good glove, some power)
- Francisco Rosario, RHP, C (great arm, but I don't trust him to throw strikes)
- Chip Cannon, 1B, C (Good power, but Arizona Fall League numbers look flukey)
- Ryan Kosterman, INF, C (possible utility candidate)
- Kyle Ginley, RHP, C (live arm from 2006 draft)
- Chase Lirette, RHP, C (strike thrower from 2006 draft)
The Blue Jays In One Sentence: Toronto has two outstanding bats, but the system drops off quickly after that, as the pitchers with the best stuff lack command, and the pitchers with the best command lack stuff.
There is a HUGE amount of uncertainty on this list, and what ends up in the book may look different. The Grade C+/C guys are interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. For example, you can make a case for Rosario in the Top Ten or even the Top Five, but I just don't think he will ever throw enough strikes to live up to his potential.
ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.
There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.
And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.
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Comments
Lind
You just made my day. If Wells is traded, I see Lind winning the AL ROY.
by GregJP on Dec 9, 2006 7:04 PM EST 0 recs
ABS
I too hope he playes and has some success.
by ChrisRef19 on
Dec 9, 2006 7:16 PM EST
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Johnson
I'm not suggesting that Lind will always be a platoon player, but he murdered righties in 2006, and Johnson/Rios/Wells are all better defensively and hit lefties quite well, so it would weaken the team to play him against LHP.
I just hope he gets the chance to play against RHP. It would seem that he deserves it, and the 5 players they have for OF/DH should make a pretty good combination.
by BobbyMac on
Dec 9, 2006 8:52 PM EST
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Gordon
Is Delmon Young still eligible? He has a shot too.
Lind would have a hard time outperforming those two, IMO. The two best prospects in baseball...
by ajohnst1 on
Dec 10, 2006 4:40 PM EST
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I will admit
by grozzy on Dec 9, 2006 7:06 PM EST 0 recs
dude
by wily mo on
Dec 9, 2006 7:12 PM EST
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Sorry...
1) I think Lind is overrated. He has no defensive value and I dont think he will be much more than an average 1B/DH/corner OF (factoring in D at OF). I think he is no better a hitter than Chris Young and nowhere near the overall player.
2.) I am surprised that Snider got such a high rating. I am surprised he considered to be at that level. I feel like A/A- level prospects are pretty generally well known and widely talked about as A/A- tend to be the best of the best in the minors and Snider just hasnt generated the buzz of most prospects of that level. Given my lack of knowledge I would have put him around a B or B+ just off what I had heard of him (very little).
I know John knows more than I (obviously) as do a large population of the regular visitors of this site. I was in a hurry and paying half attention so I ended up posting a worthless message. My bad.
Take care
by grozzy on
Dec 9, 2006 10:39 PM EST
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punishment
by Savoy on
Dec 9, 2006 10:58 PM EST
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'sallright.
it is interesting that snider grades higher than rowell, when most people have been treating them as kind of a pair.
by wily mo on
Dec 9, 2006 11:13 PM EST
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FWIW
by battlekow on
Dec 11, 2006 7:02 PM EST
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I agree with grozzy
by daveh33 on
Dec 10, 2006 2:28 AM EST
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i wonder if its the association problem
For the Jays, Lind and Snider are by far the top of the system and so if you want to show they are a few steps past anyone else its easy to round them up.
John may well have taken this into account and may just be quite high on Lind and Snider, but that is just my thoughts. As I pointed out earlier, john knows a lot more than I and as such I will definately keep a closer on Snider in the upcoming year.
by grozzy on
Dec 10, 2006 2:54 AM EST
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^Young, Lind, Snider
by BobbyMac on
Dec 10, 2006 3:18 AM EST
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Snider
by TCapone30 on
Dec 10, 2006 4:26 PM EST
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245?
John gave 20 position players an A or A- rating last year. I know he's good, I just don't think he's top-20 type of good. Not yet. I have no doubt that he's a strong candidate for getting there by next season, though. Just my 2c.
by BobbyMac on
Dec 10, 2006 11:44 PM EST
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Snider v. Rowell
He's 18 years old, and hit a park-adjusted .335/.420/.619 in the Appalachian League in his first exposure to professional pitching.
Rowell, by contrast, is 7 months older and hit a park-adj .320/.416/.500 in Appalachian before his promotion to Aberdeen. And although he plays a tougher position, he's no sure bet to stick at 3B. His defensive stats are pretty shaky according to minorleaguesplits.com.
So, if Rowell's a B+, yeah, Snider's an A-.
JP's best draft pick to date.
by Jurgen on
Dec 11, 2006 10:01 PM EST
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Rowell
by battlekow on
Dec 12, 2006 1:12 AM EST
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comparison
That's like Hall of Fame logic. If a guy's not a top-20 position player in all the minors, I cannot see why he'd be an A-. If you disagree with one of the other guys who is in most people's top-20, that's a different discussion. All I suggested is to wait and see. Here's a complete list of Appy leaguers who hit .300/.400/.500 (or better), 2002-2006 (100+ ab):
2002 - Luis Jimenez (20)
2002 - Doug Deeds (20)
2002 - Jason Pridie (18)
2002 - Nate Gold (22)
2002 - Chris O'Riordan (22)
2003 - Sal Frisella (22)
2003 - Kevin Davidson (22)
2003 - Robinzon Diaz (19)
2003 - Joey Wolfe (22)
2004 - Ryan Finan (22)
2004 - Juan Gutierrez (22)
2004 - Mitch Einertson (18)
2004 - Tony Granadillo (19)
2004 - Horace Lawrence (23)
2004 - Charlie Anderson (22)
2005 - Rene Aqueron (23)
2005 - P.J. Hiser (23)
2005 - Maximiliano Ramirez (20)
2005 - Andrew Lopez (18)
2005 - John Matulia (18)
2006 - Kieron Pope (19)
2006 - William Rowell (17)
2006 - Travis Snider (18)
To be honest, I expected to find some luminaries in such a list.
by BobbyMac on
Dec 13, 2006 3:26 AM EST
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Balbino Fuenmayor
He's very young (BD '89), was recently signed out of Venezuela, and has yet to play a game in the BJ's system to date.
Is this just a case of not having seen him play American ball yet?
by Guyute on Dec 9, 2006 7:06 PM EST 0 recs
dear lord
by mroak89 on
Dec 10, 2006 10:00 PM EST
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Good list, but where's Balbino?
by parrot11 on Dec 9, 2006 7:12 PM EST 0 recs
balbino
by John Sickels on
Dec 9, 2006 8:37 PM EST
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Lind vs. Young
Young plays a more important defensive position very well, while Lind is a DH masquerading as a 1B/LF. Young also is a good bet to steal 20 bases. If the grades for both players are based on an equal environment, I think Young still grades out at least half a letter grade higher than Lind. Taking their respective home parks into account for next season, I wouldn't be surprised to see Young outperform Lind. Arizona is the best park in the majors for HR's, and 5th for doubles. Toronto is 4th for HR's and 11th for doubles.
A lot of people will throw the 109 AB's in AAA or the 60 in the bigs Lind had as a reason why he might be an A-, but his AAA were inflated by an unsustainable batting average. Drop his average to a potentially high .320, and he ends up with an OPS of 944. Very good numbers, but a very small sample size. Same thing if you compare the MLB numbers for Young and Lind. I think Lind might have a couple of peak years that are better than Young's, but overall Young will have the better career.
I'd say Young A-, Lind B+.
by gatling on Dec 9, 2006 7:49 PM EST 0 recs
Yeah, I agree
by Havok1517 on
Dec 9, 2006 7:55 PM EST
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I voted for Chris Young as A-
by Jurgen on
Dec 10, 2006 11:40 AM EST
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To be fair
by KaoticKlown on
Dec 13, 2006 4:03 PM EST
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lind is an A-
David Ortiz and Hafner aren't the best defenders but they are A+ players
by Jdog on Dec 9, 2006 8:52 PM EST 0 recs
In a sentence...
"The Blue Jays In One Sentence: [...] system drops off quickly [...], lack[s] stuff."
by BobbyMac on Dec 9, 2006 8:58 PM EST 0 recs
Nationals
With that said, the scores throughout the system look very similar to those of the Nationals. The Jays should have a number of 1st round picks coming their way as FA compensation, let's hope JP & the brass can do a better job with the system than in the past.
3 writers & daily updates on a wide range of baseball topics, including prospects.
by TheK on Dec 9, 2006 9:06 PM EST 0 recs
Aaron Matthews
Florida State League
Aaron Mathews, Dunedin
.448 (13-29), 5 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0 SB, .793 SLG
Mathews ended the season in spectacular fashion, as he collected five multiple-hit games and drove in seven runs. On Friday, the 24-year-old went 4-for-5 with two homers, a double, and three runs scored, but Dunedin lost to Clearwater by a score of 8-7. On Sunday, Mathews drove in a season-high four runs as the Blue Jays pounded the Threshers, 15-8.
Sleeper?
by colinadam on Dec 9, 2006 9:15 PM EST 0 recs
Ismael Ramirez
As a 25 yr old he basically dominated in New Hampshire last year throwing 108 innings with a 2.08 era 75K/32BB. Was promoted to Syracuse and threw 18 innings with a 4.50 era.
I would not be suprised to see him in Toronto at some point this coming season.
by Jdog on Dec 9, 2006 9:57 PM EST 0 recs
Don't agree with Lind's grade
by nate050904 on Dec 9, 2006 11:28 PM EST 0 recs
Young
by nate050904 on Dec 9, 2006 11:28 PM EST 0 recs
young
by John Sickels on
Dec 10, 2006 10:26 AM EST
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Logo love...
by almantle on
Dec 10, 2006 9:32 AM EST
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i was thinkng of Beane/JP trades
does Lind/Romero/something else seem like a fair deal for haren/harden??
beane wanted milledge/heilman + from the mets
by rayver723 on Dec 9, 2006 11:52 PM EST 0 recs
would not do that deal
by Jurgen on
Dec 10, 2006 11:41 AM EST
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Lee Gronkiewicz
by eeleye on Dec 10, 2006 12:51 AM EST 0 recs
I just
by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2006 1:15 AM EST 0 recs
age + performance = greatness
I think a great comparison is Daric Barton. Though Snider looks like he has little a more power while Barton appears to be a better contact hitter (i.e. less strikeouts).
by slackerjack on
Dec 11, 2006 1:19 PM EST
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Barton
by slurve on
Dec 11, 2006 1:38 PM EST
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seasonal age?
by BobbyMac on
Dec 11, 2006 3:21 PM EST
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Tearing up the Appy League
For now, I think it makes sense to be cautious in projecting Snider until we see what he does in a full-season league.
by MikeE on
Dec 12, 2006 10:35 AM EST
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grade A
by eeleye on Dec 10, 2006 1:33 AM EST 0 recs
Chris Young - Valuation
Now assume we can make it back to present day (after saving some whales).
What grade is Young worth?
by okbluejays on Dec 10, 2006 11:47 AM EST 0 recs
re
Mike Cameron has had a hell of a career. If you believe Tangotiger's correct and defense is 40% of a player's value, then Cameron has been one of the very best players in baseball. Even if you don't quite but that, the only way you get to Cameron being less than an All-Star quality player is if you're like the beat writers and ignore defense entirely amongst non-middle infielders.
by bootsy on
Dec 10, 2006 2:35 PM EST
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parks
by BobbyMac on
Dec 10, 2006 11:27 PM EST
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Snider make-up
As a ball player, the kid can flat-out rake. The only questions I have heard come from his size. There is talk that he may be too big to play 3B in the majors and will eventually move to first.
He is not super fast, but is an intelligent baserunner.
As a student and a person, he has incredible make-up. He is smart, and an over-achiever. His parents are involved in his life and raised him with a good head on his shoulders. He is responsible and thoughtful for a teenager.
I don't know him personally, but these are things that his teachers and coaches have told me. An A- may be high, but the difference between that and a B+ may not be much.
best wishes,
by Robinson Checo on Dec 10, 2006 1:16 PM EST 0 recs
3B
by mckeeno on
Dec 10, 2006 4:46 PM EST
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RF in High School
by KangsBaseball on
Dec 11, 2006 12:35 PM EST
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...interesting...
...they'll have an intersting choice to make with Rosario, McGowan, and even Towers coming up since the clocks are ticking...Rios looks good but the organization needs to develop more than OFs...but at least they've had no problem developing OFs (i.e. Stewart, Wells, Rios, Lind, Snider, etc..)...
by basemonkey on Dec 10, 2006 4:37 PM EST 0 recs
Hey John,
by JohnLL on Dec 10, 2006 5:05 PM EST 0 recs
A- for Snider
by gunkdog on Dec 10, 2006 6:29 PM EST 0 recs
He's better
albo4lyfe - you listening?
by slurve on
Dec 11, 2006 9:18 AM EST
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I like Snider
by AdRoK on Dec 10, 2006 6:53 PM EST 0 recs
That would give him a slugging %
Does anyone know what Billy Butler's grade was after his first pro season at Idaho Falls? He was also 18 at that point, and had already been labelled as a future DH, but destroyed that league to the tune of a 1.084 OPS in 260 ABs.
I don't know how the competition compares between the Appalachian league and the Pioneer League, but Snider seems comparable to Butler after his first taste of pro-ball. Butler's numbers were better, though...so if Butler was an A-, maybe Snider should be a B+?
by ajohnst1 on
Dec 11, 2006 1:49 PM EST
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Appy vs. Pioneer
APPY .255/.334/.368
PIO .264/.347/.391
They're both hitters' leagues, but the Pioneer much more so.
by Mr Met on
Dec 11, 2006 1:58 PM EST
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Butler vs Snider
by metafour on
Dec 12, 2006 12:12 AM EST
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Seconded
The way he's talked about on message boards, it might sound like he's got a Prince Fielder-type body, but he reminded me maybe of Carlos Lee -- at least the early 2000s Lee, before he added two chins.
by Mr Met on
Dec 16, 2006 11:37 AM EST
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Rosario seems low
He's probably past the point where you could see him as a starter, but he could certainly be an effective reliever next year.
by Pistol on Dec 10, 2006 8:58 PM EST 0 recs
2007 Toronto Blue Jays Prospect List
and listened to all the rest, and I was surprised
to see David Purcey and Jessie Litsch listed as high as they were while Mike Mac Donald was not included in the list. Both Purcey and Litsch struggled a great deal last year.
by blackbearem on Dec 11, 2006 3:35 PM EST 0 recs
Mike McDonald
by metafour on
Dec 11, 2006 5:49 PM EST
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