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Best Free Agent signing to date

I realize we are nowhere near finished with the FA signings, but to date, whom do you feel has been the best FA signing this year?  So far we have listed the bad ones, which seem to be everyone thus far.  Please take into account years, $, park effects, etc...There are too many to list, so I didn't do a poll.

Also, please give your reasoning as to why, and who will make the biggest impact both next season and for the duration of the contract.  Don't include those that resigned with the same team (i.e. Bonds, Ramirez, etc...)  Your thoughts are much appreciated!

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Dotel $5m
Either he comes back and has a great year, and the Royals trade him for a top prospect at the deadline.

Or he comes back and doesn't have a great year, the Royals offer him arbitration, he leaves, and they get a first round pick.

So they spent $5 million for, at a minimum a first round pick.

by Galt on Dec 8, 2006 1:21 PM EST   0 recs

If he doesn't
have a great year, they won't be getting a 1st rd pick for him.  If they do offer him arb after a so-so to poor year looking to get a pick, they may get stuck with him for another year should he decide to accept arb.

5 mil is a lot of money for KC to spend on such a wildcard.

by slurve on Dec 8, 2006 1:28 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Not true
The Elias rankings are more based on what someone has done in the past, not forward-looking.

Hell, Foulke is worth a 1st rounder this year.  There are some other scrub relief pitchers who are also worthy of 1st rounders.

by Galt on Dec 8, 2006 1:50 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

No
Those rankings are based on a 3 year span so no matter how well he pitches in 2007 it will not be able to offset the fact that he only pitched for a month or so in 2005 and only a handful of innings in 2006.
Waiting for Travis Buck

by Furious George on Dec 8, 2006 2:05 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re:
I thought it was based on the past two years, not three years.

by eazyb81 on Dec 8, 2006 2:13 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

agreed
i like that pickup

though whoever signs cliff floyd will win this discussion...mark my words, floyd will be the frank thomas of '07

by robcast23 on Dec 8, 2006 1:43 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

JD Drew
While it's a good deal, it's a sad state of affairs in baseball if that is the best.

by kschell on Dec 8, 2006 1:51 PM EST   0 recs

Agreed....
fully on it.

Tops I saw Drew getting 4/52 until this market exploded.

Still it was a far better contract than the Soriano, Pierre, amd Matthews Jr. contracts.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 8, 2006 9:51 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

David Dellucci
Three years, $11.5MM.

No, he wasn't the sexiest FA out there, but it's at least a contract that's worth the money.  He destroys righties, and as long as he is protected against lefties, it's a helluva signing.  Paired with Michaels, that'll be an outstanding platoon with a strong player available off the bench.

by bigfatdrunk on Dec 8, 2006 2:02 PM EST   0 recs

Probably my vote for #1 as well
Especially when teamed with Michaels.

by Jurgen on Dec 8, 2006 2:29 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

yes
that was a good one

by robcast23 on Dec 8, 2006 4:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Another...
signing I really liked, I just changed my mind. Its probably the best contract of this offseason for an actually productive player.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 8, 2006 9:52 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Schmidt
He's the best FA pitcher out there and the Dodgers signed him for market value, but not for an extended period of time.  He should remain healthy and productive over the 3 years.  Whomever ends up giving Zito 6 years is going to greatly regret it.

by mckeeno on Dec 8, 2006 2:18 PM EST   0 recs

I like this one too
Not only because Schmidt is a solid upgrade to the Dodgers' rotation, but because it also allows them to spin off another starter now for a bat via trade. It's killing two birds with one reasonably priced hand grenade.

by Rox Girl on Dec 8, 2006 2:25 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

yes
schmidt is the best signing so far. he's worth the money and they made only a 3-year commitment.

by jpahk on Dec 8, 2006 3:10 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Hands down
 The Reds signing of Bubba Crosby. SCOREBOARD!

by BoydsOfSummer on Dec 8, 2006 2:19 PM EST   0 recs

Frank Catalanotto
3 years/13 M?  That's a great deal for the Rangers.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 8, 2006 2:40 PM EST   0 recs

+1
That's mine too.  Cat does everything well except hit for power, which is the one thing Arlington should help.  He's next year's Mark DeRosa down there.

by Yakker on Dec 8, 2006 4:37 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Lugo 4/36
If you don't count his stint in LA, he had a .360+ OBP with great speed, and good defense for the last two years.

In a massively inflated market, he signed a deal comparable to those signed by Renteria and Orlando Cabrerra two years ago.

Were it not for his time in LA, I bet he would have probably gotten another $15 million for four years

by Galt on Dec 8, 2006 2:53 PM EST   0 recs

Gary Matthews Jr.
Any time you can make 29 other teams better (relatively speaking), that's the best signing of the offseason.  (Sorry, The The Angels Angels of Santa Ana/Home fans.)
"What you're forgetting is that you need at least three DWIs before you're considered a 'dominant' drunk driver." (limozeen)

by drjayphd on Dec 8, 2006 3:14 PM EST   0 recs

moises alou....game, blouses
$8.5 for 1 YEAR (club option for '09 = icing on the cake)

in this market, where mediocres like pierre and gmatthews got 5 yrs, where just about any scrub can get 3 yrs (see: mark derosa, frank catalanatto, dave dellucci, danys baez) and for god sakes henry blanco got 2 years, the fact that the omar picked up debateably the best hitter among all the FA's for only 1 season and can back him up with endy chavez...thats a damn fine move

by robcast23 on Dec 8, 2006 4:29 PM EST   0 recs

Jose Guillen
Jose Guillen: 1 year at $5.5 mil, followed by Adam Kennedy for only $3 mil a year. Call me a battered wife, but Kerry Wood at a one-year $1.8 mill is a solid low-risk high reward contract.

The worst signed by far (even worse than Drew) is Gil Meche, followed directly behind Carlos Lee. I still don't get the Meche deal. At least Carl Pavano showed ONE good year before he got his cashcow. Meche played in a notorious pitchers park and still stunk it up. His career ERA is 4.64, plus his control is horrible for a guy who's not really a strikeout pitcher. The Royals decided no to offer arbitration to Mark Redman, but Redman is 10,000 times better (and probably half the cost).  What am I missing? I'm not buying the "inflated market" argument, as I doubt even the semi-retarded Isiah Thomas would do this deal.

Free agent pitchers better than Meche that could have been had for half the cost:

Tony Armas
Bruce Chen
Shawn Estes
Jason Johnson
Jason Marquis
Mark Mulder
Ramon Ortiz
Aaron Sele
Jason Wojnar
John Thomson
Jeff Weaver
Jamey Wright

by fartballs on Dec 8, 2006 4:35 PM EST   0 recs

nice!
Wojnar.

Though Mulder wouldn't be half the price of Meche.

by Galt on Dec 8, 2006 4:38 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Mulder
Intered in your Mulder comment. What do you project him to sign for? I can't see anything more than $6 mil a year.

Also, I know he's an injury risk, but Wojnar is one year removed from Tommy John surgery, and had a solid rehab year in the hitter-friendly PCL league. His "stuff" has never been questioned, but he's a headcase on par with Elijah Dukes. I see him at 2 years at $4 mill in this market.

by fartballs on Dec 8, 2006 5:04 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Wood
Was a nice deal.  Low risk, high reward.  In fact, until Hendry got dizzy and signed Lilly, I thought he was having a pretty good offseason.

Resigned Aramis and what now looks like a great price, resisted the urge to throw money at Pierre, overpaid but got the only superstar on the market in Soriano, and plugged a hole with DeRosa.  They didn't address their pitching woes, but maybe he decided that was just too expensive for what he could get.

by Yakker on Dec 8, 2006 4:41 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

You
My friend, are just plain stupid. The only 2 with a chance to be better, are Mulder and Weaver.

Funny thing is, people say the Royals are stupid for spending this money. Well guess what? Their also stupid for NOT spending money. So where's the logic?

Can't wait for this reply. "oh yeah bruce chen is SOOOO good". Don't even bother replying, I don't come here enough for you to slam back, because I won't even read it.

by doublestix on Dec 8, 2006 5:15 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

You have been unmasked....
Dayton, its truly sad that you would be relegated to defending your actions on some internet chatboard (under the disguised username of doublestix). Do you see guys like Schuerholz or Beane on these things? Of course not....only you because you are bush-league. THIS IS THE MAJOR LEAGUES FOR CRYING OUT LOUD!! I'm looking directly at you tapping away on your laptop in the Swan hotel (you're wearing a grey shirt and kaki pants).

And yes, you are making my exact point. I'm not going to defend Bruce Chen as being any good, but the point I'm making is that he is entirely COMPERABLE to Meche. Why you would give an entirely average pitcher a five-year contract is borderline management malpractice. Your Ambiorix Burgos trade proved it even more. You administer the worst team in baseball, and its not by accident......you are not fit to manage even a common lemonade stand.

by fartballs on Dec 8, 2006 5:32 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

idk
i dont know about the meche signing but how in any way are you gonna kill the burgos trade? even if you didn't like it, its not like he was completely fleeced

and for the record that list is pretty ridiculous...there are the guys like bruce chen and jason marquis who aren't comparable due to ability...then theres a whole bunch that you're not taking age into account and yes that does matter when you're rebuilding a team...then there are some like wojnar and armas who can't stay healthy...maybe 3 guys on the list can stay, maybe

by robcast23 on Dec 8, 2006 9:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

RE: idk
I disagree with your Wojnar assessment. Reports are that he is completly recovered, and he's only sustained one injury in his career. Please provide me the source to back up your assertion that he's always hurt. Wojnar is primed for a huge 2007 season.

by fartballs on Dec 9, 2006 9:29 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Hey Ohka!
re: "
Free agent pitchers better than Meche that could have been had for half the cost:

Tony Armas
Bruce Chen
Shawn Estes
Jason Johnson
Jason Marquis
Mark Mulder
Ramon Ortiz
Aaron Sele
Jason Wojnar
John Thomson
Jeff Weaver
Jamey Wright"

What about Toma Ohka?!  His career ERA is 4.04 in almost 1000 innings.

by BobbyMac on Dec 8, 2006 7:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I agree
I like those three signing as well.  Wood will give them a nasty closer IF he can stay healthy.  If not, ehh, teams have about as much to let Lieber/Miller to rehab for a year.

As far as Meche, I do disagree to some extent.  He's got something the pitchers on that list don't.  Upside.  He has a fantastic arm - another if - if he can stay healthy.  Quite a risk by KC given his ability to do that, but interesting.  I think this winter may mark when the GM decided the stars have aligned and it's time to start building around Gordon/Buler/Hoch.  Teahen looks like a contributor as does Shealy.  They draft Price and they have nice tight instant nucleus that can be built around to... win?  

I think KC is going to be heard a lot more in the FA market.  If not this year, the next year or two.  Signing guys like you have listed is only treading water.  They don't need to sign warm bodies as roster filler anymore.  They have a direction and it appears that they are going to try and make something happen.

by slurve on Dec 8, 2006 7:45 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Saito
The Dodgers signed Takashi Saito for 1 yr/ $1 mil. This is the pitcher who out-pitched Cy Young runner-up Trevor Hoffman last season. While he will most likely regresss some, this is a great deal for LA.

Honorable Mention: Moises Alou (NYM), Aramis Ramirez (CHC)

by count sutton on Dec 8, 2006 4:40 PM EST   0 recs

Free agent
Saito wasn't a free agent, and Aramis resigned with his old club, which I think we're supposed to exclude.  But you're right, both are good prices for quality players.

by Yakker on Dec 8, 2006 4:43 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

doesn't count
saito wasn't a free agent and had absolutely no leverage in his bargaining as his only option was to go back to japan...plus, he was amazed by how much he got since in japan a 300% raise in base salary, no matter how much it was, based on 1 good year is unheard of

by robcast23 on Dec 8, 2006 5:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Royce Clayton
Don't know if it's the best, but it is a great signing by Toronto. They've got three pontential all-stars on that infield. Clayton is a a perfect fit that will help bring it all together. Great sign by Toronto, considering it isn't exactly every free agents dream to sign there.

Julio Lugo was also a great sign for Boston.

by StickRat on Dec 8, 2006 5:24 PM EST   0 recs

Three potential all-stars?
OK, I'll give you Troy Glaus.  Although he hasn't been in one since he left Anaheim.

But, who else?  Overbay?  Aaron Hill?  Greg Zaun?  Russ Adams?

I must be missing something...

by Yakker on Dec 8, 2006 5:59 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Glaus, Overbay, and Hill
Actually, Glaus was an all-star in 2006. Overbay hit .312 last year and may very well better that in future seasons. Hill is one of the best up-and-coming middle infielders in the game. He hit .291 in his first full major-league season in '06, and batted .307 following a horrendous April. If there isn't all-star potential there, then maybe I am missing something.  

by StickRat on Dec 8, 2006 7:40 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Ok
I had forgotten Glaus was named as a reserve this year.  But I think hoping for Overbay to get better (at 30) is unrealistic, and this from a guy who loves Overbay.  Plus, he plays at a position where there's a lot of depth.  Hill's still an enigma, but unless he develops a lot more power the only way I see him making an All-Star game is by buying a ticket, like the rest of us.

by Yakker on Dec 9, 2006 9:05 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Operative word is ...
POTENTIAL all-stars. I was just trying to make a point, which is it is a very talented infield. Clayton is a great fit for the Jays. And, Hill is a stud.

by StickRat on Dec 10, 2006 3:10 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Verbiage
Anyone can be a POTENTIAL All Star. Nuts, look at Jack Wilson.

by avehoward on Dec 10, 2006 8:50 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Subplots
I don't understand why people insist on dissecting the aside aspect of comments, instead of taking into account the overall meaning of a particular comment. Overbay hit .312-22-92 last year for crying out loud. Unless that is a career year for him, it stands to reason he may contend for a batting title in the next five years. There are now so many microscope-type stats in baseball that I think a lot of statheads forget to respect how special it is to hit .300 or to hit 20 homeruns, let alone do both in the same year. Would someone amid these fine-tooth criticisms please explain to me why I even have to defend praising Overbay?

To respond to your comment AH, not everyone is a potential all-star. Frank Catalanotto is never going to be an all-star. Nor are John McDonald or Russ Adams. However, in 2004 Jack Wilson WAS an all-star, and is a pretty darn good ballplayer. He'll probably make a few more all-star squads in his career.

by StickRat on Dec 11, 2006 3:26 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Well
To be fair, your comments invited the analysis.  

Your point, as I read it, was that Royce Clayton, though a profoundly poor hitter, was a good free agent signing for Toronto because he would be the glue to bring these three infield stars together.

Now, leaving aside for a moment whether (a) Royce will even get more than 50 games at SS for Toronto next year, (b) whether your "glue" effect is something that can be supported statistically, and (c) whether a 37-year old SS who's been with 6 teams in the last 6 years even has any glue left, I think the premise is that there are 3 good players around him, who are good bets to get even better.  If that premise is false, it undercuts your argument.

As for your questions about Overbay, of course it's good to hit .300 with 20 homers (although it would be better to at least OPS in the 900s, in my book).  But to do so from the 1B position is not that unusual.  7-8 1B did it last year, and that included such luminaries as Rich Aurilia (heck, Nomar did it in 450 ABs).  In any given year, roughly 8-10 first baseman in the majors will hit your criteria.

Is Overbay better than Aurlia?  Yes, of course.  I like Overbay a lot as a player.  But he has his limitations, and one of those is that he doesn't hit for as much power as his 1B brethren.  Sure, it's possible that he will continue to put up lines like his 2006 one:  .312/.372/.508, and if he does, while playing average defense at first, he contributes value to the team.  But I think to expect him to get even better, at age 30, when he hasn't demonstrated .500+ slugging like this since his days at Tucson, just sets you up for disappointment.

by Yakker on Dec 11, 2006 1:29 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

American League 1B
The only AL first basemen to hit .300-20 last year were Paul Konerko and Justin Morneau. That is pretty elite company. Aurilia didn't come close to hitting .300-20 as a first baseman. He did so in a utility role, and only played a small portion of his 122 games at first base.

I put Overbay more in the Bill Buckner, Mark Grace category. Neither were power hitters, but they totaled four all-star appearances between them; which is ultimately beside the point when you consider both had very good, if not great, careers as first basemen. Overbay is on the same path. Power numbers are not his strong suit. He is a hit-totals guy, and could very well tab a 200-hit season or two before it's all said and done.

As for Clayton, the Jays signed him to play every day. He has yet to play less than 100 games in any complete season throughout his major-league career.

by StickRat on Dec 11, 2006 7:01 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Wrong
Re Clayton, J.P. has expressly said the opposite.  The "other infielder" referenced in the article is Jason Smith, whom they snagged in the Rule 5 draft.  I see Clayton, at best, becoming the defensive replacement portion of the Jays "three-headed mosnter" at SS.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AkixLJ1_2xte8svDQpXr39mFCLcF?slug=ap-bluejays-clayton&prov =ap&type=lgns

by Yakker on Dec 11, 2006 8:44 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

That's GM gibberish
Clayton is the frontrunner for the job. Adams and McDonald are utility men at best, and Jason Smith doesn't make enough contact to hang in the bigs. And I don't think the decision is ultimately up to Riccardi, so that's not the most reliable source for the subject matter. Unless he goes out and acquires a monster shortstop, he isn't going to have the final say in who plays everyday. John Gibbons would be the key source for that kind of info.

by StickRat on Dec 12, 2006 12:26 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Well
Perhaps you're more in touch with the Jays' plans than J.P. is, but what motive would he have for this "gibberish?"

And you do know he can't send Smith down.  Why spend the $$ on Smith if Gibbons had already penciled Clayton in for 120 games at SS (and potential future All-Star Hill presumably has a lock on 2B)?

Usually the manager takes his instructions from the GM, not the other way around.  Given the thin ice that Gibbons's is skating on these days, I don't see him crossing J.P.

by Yakker on Dec 12, 2006 4:36 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Wrong word
I meant to say it is GM hogwash, but had some technical difficulties. GM's say a lot of things in November and December to placate the media. I don't think there is as much tension between Riccardi and Gibbons as it seems. If there was, Gibbons would have been fired by now. GM's by definition don't decide who takes the field on a day-to-day basis. Managers are the ones who fill out lineup cards. I don't have any clue as to the inner-workings of the Jays. I'm just going according to standard operating procedure.

Time will tell how the Jays infield takes shape, but if you meant the Aaron Hill comment condescendingly, you need to reevaluate Aaron Hill. He's a bat that plays middle infield, not the other way around. He doesn't have the range to play shortstop, and the Jays should want to cement him at second. It's akin to what the D-Backs did with Orlando Hudson and Craig Counsell last year by pairing a vet with an up-and-comer. It's a simple up-the-middle baseball formula. Jason Smith, John McDonald, and Russ Adams ... none of these guys belong in a starting lineup on a regular basis. Clayton is a proven everyday player. Of course, if Smith takes off ala Dan Uggla he will get playing time. But that's very, very unlikely.

by StickRat on Dec 12, 2006 5:00 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Piazza
Similar to the Alou signing, but I think Piazza will be more durable, since he'll just be a DH. The A's get him for a year for (just) $8.5m, and I truly believe that he'll have an excellent offensive year...he's never DH'd before, and he has taken care of his body in the offseason, so injuries shouldn't be too much of an issue. His splits last year showed only that he couldn't hit in Petco park, but on the road he was solid. Alou was a similarly low-risk (one year) signing, with high upside.

by southboundpachyderm on Dec 8, 2006 6:15 PM EST   0 recs

Alou
will rake for 8.5 mil per, as opposed to Drew doing it for about 14 per.
I'll be the first A+ prospect... www.myspace.com/posingforpennies

by ufoboy90 on Dec 8, 2006 6:18 PM EST   0 recs

Inge
signs for 4/24.  I like it.  I like it a lot.

by slurve on Dec 8, 2006 7:57 PM EST   0 recs

I don't care
I still like it.  I like it a lot...

by slurve on Dec 10, 2006 2:50 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

I'm surprised...
... that no one's brought up Greg Maddux at $10M for a year yet (with an innings-dependent player option, i believe). In Petco, Maddux could equal Schmidt.

by igreen01 on Dec 8, 2006 9:12 PM EST   0 recs

Not to mention
it's like hiring a second pitching coach - and a good one at that.

by slurve on Dec 9, 2006 5:58 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Mark DeRosa
I just liked the deal for the Cubs cheap and I think he's a good guy to have on the team.
Go Jays!!!!

by achengy on Dec 9, 2006 3:06 AM EST   0 recs

Here Are Your Candidates . . .
Based on a spreadsheet regressing salaries against VORP and age . . .
  1. Julio Lugo.  Even if he hits as projected based on his last 3 years, he's a $2 mill/yr bargain.  If he hits like he did in TB in '05-'06 (hint: he will), he's a steal.
  2. Jason Schmidt.  It's quite possible he turned down $17.5 or $18 a year to take the Dodger's $15.7, plus they're only comitted to 3 years.
  3. Adam Kennedy.  In this market, an average 2B bat his age should be fetching $6 per; Cardinals got one who's a plus glove for 3/$10.
  4. Dellucci and Catalanotto in the "medicocrity for a pittance" category.  Neither is above average at his position, but they both provide a lot of bang for the buck.  Dellucci's worth about $5.3 in this market and signed for $3.8, Catalanotto's worth about $5.5 and signed for $4.3.  If they can increase their PT without their rates suffering, they become even bigger bargains.  Possible caveat: if the Rangers end up with money in their budget and a team that doesn't project as a contender, you wonder whether quickly filling one of their holes with a below-average cheapo guy was actually a good idea.
  5. And the one that everyone has dead wrong: Gary Matthews Jr.  Really.  Everyone's assuming the Angels are paying for the career year without looking at the numbers.  In this market, $10 mill a year is buying 27 VORP for a hitter.  Matthews is about +7 defensively per 150 games, which leaves 20 VORP to be made up at the plate.  Over the last three seasons he's averaged 34 VORP per 150 games, and 32.4 actual VORP weighted 3-2-1.  Yes, five years was excessive, but they have a good chance of getting the full value of the deal in four.  He can come back to earth a ton before he starts to become a mistake (and, no, he has no home / road split at all his last 3 years).
BTW, in terms of bad contracts, there's Carlos Lee and then there's everyone else.  He's to bad 2006 off-season contracts what Pedro Martinez was to pitching in '99 and '00.  And it's not just that he got 6/$100 when he was worth something like 3/$38: he may well be blocking a better player in Hunter Pence in just a year's time.

by Eric Van on Dec 9, 2006 8:19 AM EST   0 recs

love your work, but...
I have a problem with this:

Quote:

Matthews is about +7 defensively per 150 games, which leaves 20 VORP to be made up at the plate.

First, you're assuming that he'll stay at that defensive value when he is going to be declining physically.

Second, and this goes for any (long-term) FA signing this year, how are we to believe that this market will remain stable where 27 VORP is worth 10 mil? If you look at the 2000 offseason where salaries skyrocketed, you'll see that in 2-3 years salaries fell way back down.  Of course that may not happen again, but historically baseball salaries have always fluctuated a lot year to year.  By locking yourself into these long term (more than 3 years) you're risking the possiblity that the market will come back down and you'll be stuck with a bad contract because you bought high.

Like I said, it applies to any deal more than 3 years long, but with Matthews at his age I believe its even more apt since he's very likely to decline in 2-3 years to the point that he may be struggling to approach the 20 VORP mark as a hitter.  I agree that over the next 2-3 years the contract will be fine.  But in years 4&5 I think the Angels are gonna be kicking themselves over that one pretty badly.

More than anything though, matthews is a difficult player to peg for the future.  Until this year he never played more than 131 games, and before that year he never played in more than 109.  Also, he's got pretty good tools, but it took until his age 31 season to put it together.  Basically he's got a wide range of possibilities in front of him.  He could be the player he was from age 25-29, or maybe he's broken out and he keeps producing at a 4-5 WARP level for another 2-3 years, neither outcome (or anything in between) would shock me.  However, that's a lot of coin to be throwing at an uncertainty that large.

by jspearlj1 on Dec 9, 2006 9:52 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Really Good Points
And yet at the same time they apply to all the long-term contracts together.  Everyone declines with age and salaries always fluctuate.  However, they are likely to trend upwards over the next few years.

I have to admit that I don't really believe Matthews' is the second-best contract, because it is for five years and he is somewhat of an unknown.  What it is, actually, is a real good gamble.

It is certainly a much better contract than its reputation, even if you can see the potential downside.  Yeah, it's a lot of coin -- but it's absurd that folks are lumping this with the Pierre, Lee, and Meche contracts.

by Eric Van on Dec 9, 2006 2:45 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Meche = Dreifort?
I see many parallels here
Arthur: "Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left!" Black Knight: "Yes I have." Arthur: "Look!" Black Knight: "It's just a flesh wound!"

by pedrophile on Dec 9, 2006 12:39 PM EST   0 recs

dreifort
was actually good when he pitched. meche hasn't been any good since he blew out his labrum and missed all of 2001 and 2002.

by jpahk on Dec 9, 2006 5:35 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Frank Thomas Anyone
When you get a player who finished in the top 5 in MVP voting for 9 mil for 2 seasons ..it is a great signing in this market
Dating Patsy's little sister!

by Jdog on Dec 10, 2006 1:58 AM EST   0 recs

Thomas
Toronto had a fine, potent offense before signing Thomas.  And plenty of righty power.  Blocking Lind with this signing made it such that the marginal improvement of the offense wasn't all that significant (as it might have been for another team, with - say - Ken Harvey in their DH slot).

What Toronto needs are good starting pitchers.  IMO, Mussina and Pettitte were the two best on the market (other than Matsuzaka, but he's more of a variable).  If the Yankees win the division again this year, people will still complain about the dollars, but part of it will be because they chose the correct free agents to which to pay those dollars.  The difference in runs per whole season between Towers and Mussina this year will be much more than that between Lind and Thomas, IMO.

by BobbyMac on Dec 10, 2006 4:25 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

9 mil /year that is
for 2 seasons
Dating Patsy's little sister!

by Jdog on Dec 10, 2006 1:59 AM EST   0 recs

Hendry topped you all!!!
Jason Marquis, 3 yrs, 20 million tentatively...
This is so unbelievably brilliant, getting such a young up and coming talent at a bargain rate in the current market. And he'll be their fifth starter, with Lilly they are loaded like my Irish uncle.

Career 4.15 ERA dwarfs Meche and Lilly, he is only 28. Haters might point out his brutal K rate, BB rate and HR rate, or that he bombed with two of the finest organizations in the National League, but that's what makes them haters. Marquis has breakout written all over him...

Yatzhee!!

by BGWoodsman on Dec 10, 2006 4:14 AM EST   0 recs

yer loaded uncle....
stole 0.40 from Marquis' career ERA while he was at it.

by BobbyMac on Dec 10, 2006 4:26 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

garr....hungover again
Ay...Rotowire's career stats must not be updated to include 2006 yet...BaseballCube shows ye right...

by BGWoodsman on Dec 10, 2006 9:46 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

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