Best Free Agent signing to date
by ZackAttack on Dec 8, 2006 1:20 PM EST
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PrintI realize we are nowhere near finished with the FA signings, but to date, whom do you feel has been the best FA signing this year? So far we have listed the bad ones, which seem to be everyone thus far. Please take into account years, $, park effects, etc...There are too many to list, so I didn't do a poll.
Also, please give your reasoning as to why, and who will make the biggest impact both next season and for the duration of the contract. Don't include those that resigned with the same team (i.e. Bonds, Ramirez, etc...) Your thoughts are much appreciated!
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Dotel $5m
Or he comes back and doesn't have a great year, the Royals offer him arbitration, he leaves, and they get a first round pick.
So they spent $5 million for, at a minimum a first round pick.
If he doesn't
5 mil is a lot of money for KC to spend on such a wildcard.
Not true
Hell, Foulke is worth a 1st rounder this year. There are some other scrub relief pitchers who are also worthy of 1st rounders.
No
by Furious George on Dec 8, 2006 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
agreed
though whoever signs cliff floyd will win this discussion...mark my words, floyd will be the frank thomas of '07
by Rob Castellano on Dec 8, 2006 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
JD Drew
by kschell on Dec 8, 2006 1:51 PM EST reply actions
Agreed....
Tops I saw Drew getting 4/52 until this market exploded.
Still it was a far better contract than the Soriano, Pierre, amd Matthews Jr. contracts.
David Dellucci
No, he wasn't the sexiest FA out there, but it's at least a contract that's worth the money. He destroys righties, and as long as he is protected against lefties, it's a helluva signing. Paired with Michaels, that'll be an outstanding platoon with a strong player available off the bench.
Probably my vote for #1 as well
by Jurgen @ Minor League Ball on Dec 8, 2006 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
Another...
Schmidt
I like this one too
Lugo 4/36
In a massively inflated market, he signed a deal comparable to those signed by Renteria and Orlando Cabrerra two years ago.
Were it not for his time in LA, I bet he would have probably gotten another $15 million for four years
Gary Matthews Jr.
moises alou....game, blouses
in this market, where mediocres like pierre and gmatthews got 5 yrs, where just about any scrub can get 3 yrs (see: mark derosa, frank catalanatto, dave dellucci, danys baez) and for god sakes henry blanco got 2 years, the fact that the omar picked up debateably the best hitter among all the FA's for only 1 season and can back him up with endy chavez...thats a damn fine move
Jose Guillen
The worst signed by far (even worse than Drew) is Gil Meche, followed directly behind Carlos Lee. I still don't get the Meche deal. At least Carl Pavano showed ONE good year before he got his cashcow. Meche played in a notorious pitchers park and still stunk it up. His career ERA is 4.64, plus his control is horrible for a guy who's not really a strikeout pitcher. The Royals decided no to offer arbitration to Mark Redman, but Redman is 10,000 times better (and probably half the cost). What am I missing? I'm not buying the "inflated market" argument, as I doubt even the semi-retarded Isiah Thomas would do this deal.
Free agent pitchers better than Meche that could have been had for half the cost:
Tony Armas
Bruce Chen
Shawn Estes
Jason Johnson
Jason Marquis
Mark Mulder
Ramon Ortiz
Aaron Sele
Jason Wojnar
John Thomson
Jeff Weaver
Jamey Wright
Mulder
Also, I know he's an injury risk, but Wojnar is one year removed from Tommy John surgery, and had a solid rehab year in the hitter-friendly PCL league. His "stuff" has never been questioned, but he's a headcase on par with Elijah Dukes. I see him at 2 years at $4 mill in this market.
Wood
Resigned Aramis and what now looks like a great price, resisted the urge to throw money at Pierre, overpaid but got the only superstar on the market in Soriano, and plugged a hole with DeRosa. They didn't address their pitching woes, but maybe he decided that was just too expensive for what he could get.
You
Funny thing is, people say the Royals are stupid for spending this money. Well guess what? Their also stupid for NOT spending money. So where's the logic?
Can't wait for this reply. "oh yeah bruce chen is SOOOO good". Don't even bother replying, I don't come here enough for you to slam back, because I won't even read it.
You have been unmasked....
And yes, you are making my exact point. I'm not going to defend Bruce Chen as being any good, but the point I'm making is that he is entirely COMPERABLE to Meche. Why you would give an entirely average pitcher a five-year contract is borderline management malpractice. Your Ambiorix Burgos trade proved it even more. You administer the worst team in baseball, and its not by accident......you are not fit to manage even a common lemonade stand.
idk
and for the record that list is pretty ridiculous...there are the guys like bruce chen and jason marquis who aren't comparable due to ability...then theres a whole bunch that you're not taking age into account and yes that does matter when you're rebuilding a team...then there are some like wojnar and armas who can't stay healthy...maybe 3 guys on the list can stay, maybe
by Rob Castellano on Dec 8, 2006 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
RE: idk
Hey Ohka!
Free agent pitchers better than Meche that could have been had for half the cost:
Tony Armas
Bruce Chen
Shawn Estes
Jason Johnson
Jason Marquis
Mark Mulder
Ramon Ortiz
Aaron Sele
Jason Wojnar
John Thomson
Jeff Weaver
Jamey Wright"
What about Toma Ohka?! His career ERA is 4.04 in almost 1000 innings.
I agree
As far as Meche, I do disagree to some extent. He's got something the pitchers on that list don't. Upside. He has a fantastic arm - another if - if he can stay healthy. Quite a risk by KC given his ability to do that, but interesting. I think this winter may mark when the GM decided the stars have aligned and it's time to start building around Gordon/Buler/Hoch. Teahen looks like a contributor as does Shealy. They draft Price and they have nice tight instant nucleus that can be built around to... win?
I think KC is going to be heard a lot more in the FA market. If not this year, the next year or two. Signing guys like you have listed is only treading water. They don't need to sign warm bodies as roster filler anymore. They have a direction and it appears that they are going to try and make something happen.
Saito
Honorable Mention: Moises Alou (NYM), Aramis Ramirez (CHC)
Free agent
doesn't count
by Rob Castellano on Dec 8, 2006 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
Royce Clayton
Julio Lugo was also a great sign for Boston.
Three potential all-stars?
But, who else? Overbay? Aaron Hill? Greg Zaun? Russ Adams?
I must be missing something...
Glaus, Overbay, and Hill
Ok
Operative word is ...
Verbiage
by avehoward on Dec 10, 2006 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
Subplots
To respond to your comment AH, not everyone is a potential all-star. Frank Catalanotto is never going to be an all-star. Nor are John McDonald or Russ Adams. However, in 2004 Jack Wilson WAS an all-star, and is a pretty darn good ballplayer. He'll probably make a few more all-star squads in his career.
Well
Your point, as I read it, was that Royce Clayton, though a profoundly poor hitter, was a good free agent signing for Toronto because he would be the glue to bring these three infield stars together.
Now, leaving aside for a moment whether (a) Royce will even get more than 50 games at SS for Toronto next year, (b) whether your "glue" effect is something that can be supported statistically, and (c) whether a 37-year old SS who's been with 6 teams in the last 6 years even has any glue left, I think the premise is that there are 3 good players around him, who are good bets to get even better. If that premise is false, it undercuts your argument.
As for your questions about Overbay, of course it's good to hit .300 with 20 homers (although it would be better to at least OPS in the 900s, in my book). But to do so from the 1B position is not that unusual. 7-8 1B did it last year, and that included such luminaries as Rich Aurilia (heck, Nomar did it in 450 ABs). In any given year, roughly 8-10 first baseman in the majors will hit your criteria.
Is Overbay better than Aurlia? Yes, of course. I like Overbay a lot as a player. But he has his limitations, and one of those is that he doesn't hit for as much power as his 1B brethren. Sure, it's possible that he will continue to put up lines like his 2006 one: .312/.372/.508, and if he does, while playing average defense at first, he contributes value to the team. But I think to expect him to get even better, at age 30, when he hasn't demonstrated .500+ slugging like this since his days at Tucson, just sets you up for disappointment.
American League 1B
I put Overbay more in the Bill Buckner, Mark Grace category. Neither were power hitters, but they totaled four all-star appearances between them; which is ultimately beside the point when you consider both had very good, if not great, careers as first basemen. Overbay is on the same path. Power numbers are not his strong suit. He is a hit-totals guy, and could very well tab a 200-hit season or two before it's all said and done.
As for Clayton, the Jays signed him to play every day. He has yet to play less than 100 games in any complete season throughout his major-league career.
Wrong
That's GM gibberish
Well
And you do know he can't send Smith down. Why spend the $$ on Smith if Gibbons had already penciled Clayton in for 120 games at SS (and potential future All-Star Hill presumably has a lock on 2B)?
Usually the manager takes his instructions from the GM, not the other way around. Given the thin ice that Gibbons's is skating on these days, I don't see him crossing J.P.
Wrong word
Time will tell how the Jays infield takes shape, but if you meant the Aaron Hill comment condescendingly, you need to reevaluate Aaron Hill. He's a bat that plays middle infield, not the other way around. He doesn't have the range to play shortstop, and the Jays should want to cement him at second. It's akin to what the D-Backs did with Orlando Hudson and Craig Counsell last year by pairing a vet with an up-and-comer. It's a simple up-the-middle baseball formula. Jason Smith, John McDonald, and Russ Adams ... none of these guys belong in a starting lineup on a regular basis. Clayton is a proven everyday player. Of course, if Smith takes off ala Dan Uggla he will get playing time. But that's very, very unlikely.
Piazza
by southboundpachyderm on Dec 8, 2006 6:15 PM EST reply actions
Alou
I'm surprised...
by igreen01 on Dec 8, 2006 9:12 PM EST reply actions
Mark DeRosa
Here Are Your Candidates . . .
- Julio Lugo. Even if he hits as projected based on his last 3 years, he's a $2 mill/yr bargain. If he hits like he did in TB in '05-'06 (hint: he will), he's a steal.
- Jason Schmidt. It's quite possible he turned down $17.5 or $18 a year to take the Dodger's $15.7, plus they're only comitted to 3 years.
- Adam Kennedy. In this market, an average 2B bat his age should be fetching $6 per; Cardinals got one who's a plus glove for 3/$10.
- Dellucci and Catalanotto in the "medicocrity for a pittance" category. Neither is above average at his position, but they both provide a lot of bang for the buck. Dellucci's worth about $5.3 in this market and signed for $3.8, Catalanotto's worth about $5.5 and signed for $4.3. If they can increase their PT without their rates suffering, they become even bigger bargains. Possible caveat: if the Rangers end up with money in their budget and a team that doesn't project as a contender, you wonder whether quickly filling one of their holes with a below-average cheapo guy was actually a good idea.
- And the one that everyone has dead wrong: Gary Matthews Jr. Really. Everyone's assuming the Angels are paying for the career year without looking at the numbers. In this market, $10 mill a year is buying 27 VORP for a hitter. Matthews is about +7 defensively per 150 games, which leaves 20 VORP to be made up at the plate. Over the last three seasons he's averaged 34 VORP per 150 games, and 32.4 actual VORP weighted 3-2-1. Yes, five years was excessive, but they have a good chance of getting the full value of the deal in four. He can come back to earth a ton before he starts to become a mistake (and, no, he has no home / road split at all his last 3 years).
by Eric Van on Dec 9, 2006 8:19 AM EST reply actions
love your work, but...
Quote:
Matthews is about +7 defensively per 150 games, which leaves 20 VORP to be made up at the plate.
First, you're assuming that he'll stay at that defensive value when he is going to be declining physically.
Second, and this goes for any (long-term) FA signing this year, how are we to believe that this market will remain stable where 27 VORP is worth 10 mil? If you look at the 2000 offseason where salaries skyrocketed, you'll see that in 2-3 years salaries fell way back down. Of course that may not happen again, but historically baseball salaries have always fluctuated a lot year to year. By locking yourself into these long term (more than 3 years) you're risking the possiblity that the market will come back down and you'll be stuck with a bad contract because you bought high.
Like I said, it applies to any deal more than 3 years long, but with Matthews at his age I believe its even more apt since he's very likely to decline in 2-3 years to the point that he may be struggling to approach the 20 VORP mark as a hitter. I agree that over the next 2-3 years the contract will be fine. But in years 4&5 I think the Angels are gonna be kicking themselves over that one pretty badly.
More than anything though, matthews is a difficult player to peg for the future. Until this year he never played more than 131 games, and before that year he never played in more than 109. Also, he's got pretty good tools, but it took until his age 31 season to put it together. Basically he's got a wide range of possibilities in front of him. He could be the player he was from age 25-29, or maybe he's broken out and he keeps producing at a 4-5 WARP level for another 2-3 years, neither outcome (or anything in between) would shock me. However, that's a lot of coin to be throwing at an uncertainty that large.
by jspearlj1 on Dec 9, 2006 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
Really Good Points
I have to admit that I don't really believe Matthews' is the second-best contract, because it is for five years and he is somewhat of an unknown. What it is, actually, is a real good gamble.
It is certainly a much better contract than its reputation, even if you can see the potential downside. Yeah, it's a lot of coin -- but it's absurd that folks are lumping this with the Pierre, Lee, and Meche contracts.
by Eric Van on Dec 9, 2006 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
Meche = Dreifort?
Frank Thomas Anyone
by Jdog @ Minor League Ball on Dec 10, 2006 1:58 AM EST reply actions
Thomas
What Toronto needs are good starting pitchers. IMO, Mussina and Pettitte were the two best on the market (other than Matsuzaka, but he's more of a variable). If the Yankees win the division again this year, people will still complain about the dollars, but part of it will be because they chose the correct free agents to which to pay those dollars. The difference in runs per whole season between Towers and Mussina this year will be much more than that between Lind and Thomas, IMO.
9 mil /year that is
by Jdog @ Minor League Ball on Dec 10, 2006 1:59 AM EST reply actions
Hendry topped you all!!!
This is so unbelievably brilliant, getting such a young up and coming talent at a bargain rate in the current market. And he'll be their fifth starter, with Lilly they are loaded like my Irish uncle.
Career 4.15 ERA dwarfs Meche and Lilly, he is only 28. Haters might point out his brutal K rate, BB rate and HR rate, or that he bombed with two of the finest organizations in the National League, but that's what makes them haters. Marquis has breakout written all over him...
Yatzhee!!
by BGWoodsman on Dec 10, 2006 4:14 AM EST reply actions
yer loaded uncle....
garr....hungover again
by BGWoodsman on Dec 10, 2006 9:46 PM EST up reply actions
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