CF smackdown

by dkny22 on Dec 6, 2006 5:35 PM EST Comment 23 comments

In light of the recent Adam Jones to Boston rumors (in the Manny Ramirez trade), I was reminded that Boston seems to already have their CF of the future in the person of Jacob Ellsbury.

So what do you think Boston is going to do with Jones when/if they acquire him? Jones was a SS prospect up until late 2004 and Boston is looking for a SS, so moving him there could be a possibilty. Or perhaps either Jones or Ellsbury would move off CF and move to one of the corner OF spots. Another option is to keep them both in CF and whoever performs best will be their CF of the future.

What would you do if you were running the Sox (assuming you got Jones) and why?

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Assuming we get Jones...

and I doubt it will happen in a Manny deal, we should keep both in CF and see what happens, then use the 2007 offseason to deal one for a young 1B'men or 3B'men, depending on where you wanna leave Youkilis

by dlpme77 on Dec 6, 2006 5:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If the plan is to flip Jones

then why not put him at SS where is value will be higher.

by Galt on Dec 6, 2006 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

I don't think the Jones swap happens now that Soriano has been dealt to Atlanta unless Boston would include Hansen, which they won't.

by Havok1517 on Dec 6, 2006 5:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jones could be the future

well, Jones won't be moved back to SS with Lugo in tow now. Unless Lugo's D declines a ton this year (as well as a Pedroia meltdown) and he has to move off SS. Jones could only then enter the picture.

Jones looks like a stronger bat than Ellsbury with just as good D. He has been compared to a better hitting Mike Cameron. Ellsbury becomes trade bait and maybe they can get Sanchez back from Florida with him ;-)

by yoshimi on Dec 6, 2006 5:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ugh.....

...forgot the lugo acquisition. kinda makes this moot, huh?

by dkny22 on Dec 6, 2006 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

I'd think Jones should stay in CF considering the poor numbers Ellsbury has put up. This does remind me a little of the Gathright situation. Granted, Ellsbury is not the stinker to the level Gathright was, in prospect terms, but I don't see anything to get excited about. I'd be much more comfortable going into the future with Jones in CF.

by beastball on Dec 6, 2006 5:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Poor numbers?

Yes he is not gonna have 30HR power but Ellsbury is not even close to poor. the guy is 23, and last year he hit .303 with a .382OBP and 41 steals last year between high A and AA ball? Also in 442AB's, he struck out just 53 times. He will develop into a .300 type with 15-20HR's and 25-35 SB's with good defense. Last time i checked, Johnny Damon made a great career out of this

by dlpme77 on Dec 6, 2006 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm just looking at core numbers...

and I'll readily admit that on occasion a prospect can convert poor minor league numbers into a solid major league career. I'd argue that Damon is the exception not the rule.

Admittedly, this is just stat-head stuff, so it doesn't factor in defense or someone's gut feel. Other than his numbers, I don't know Ellsbury from a hole in the ground.

But only 24% of Ellsbury's hits go for extra bases, which is normally a sign of how hard a guy is hitting the ball, and there is more luck involved in singles than in hits for extra bases. Not saying all singles are luck, but just that there is more of a chance you luck into a single than luck into a double. And his rate is extraordinarily bad. The Pirates have a 30% XBH rate. Guys like Gordon have 40+%. This is the number that jumps out at me and tells me that statistically he's not in this class of prospect. Anything under the low-30s is a red flag for me.

His walk rate is not bad, its 10 PA/BB, which is pretty good and right with the current crowd.

So, yeah, there may be more to this than meets the eye, but by objective measures and in my opinion, he's a weak prospect.

by beastball on Dec 6, 2006 6:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ellsbury

i think this joey gathright talk being put on ellsbury the last day or so is getting out of hand. he's not a power hitter, but if he was joey gathright, he'd be able to jump over a car. and he can't. also he'd have even less power. he had seven homers last year; that's half as many as billy butler. gathright has two in his life.

i don't think ellsbury will ever be damon, but i can see him as a lugo type offensive player, or figgins, or latter-day lofton. not huge pop, but enough.

with that said even though i'm a sox fan i think adam jones blows him out of the water as a prospect.

by wily mo on Dec 6, 2006 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree, it is an exaggeration...

that's why I said it's a little like Gathright. And in that what I mean is that people are lovin Ellsbury despite his obvious offensive shortcomings based primarily on his speed and his defense, which is like how people viewed Gathright before he crashed and burned.

But, like I said, maybe Ellsbury does well, but in terms of offense, I'd much prefer guys like Fields, Lind, Pie, Stewart and others to him at this point.

by beastball on Dec 6, 2006 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lind and pie, yes.

i guess it's a sliding scale - i mean, rickey henderson was a little like gathright. but if J-Ells really does develop into a 10-homer, high-OBP speed threat in CF (where "high-OBP" is really the key item), i think those guys tend to be slightly underrated offensive players. chicks dig the long ball, but i don't see fields and stewart as more than average-ish lumbering corner types at this point.

i'm voting a straight pie ticket on the polls right now though.

by wily mo on Dec 6, 2006 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

HAHA!

If by a little, you mean because they both played baseball!

And I only look it up because I like looking up these things...

Rickey's final year in the minors, at age 20, he at least had 33% of his hits go for extra bases and a walk rate of 5.7 PA/BB. Awesome PD and solid %XBH for a 20 year old in AAA, and he was a 3b in the minors (didn't know that until now!). So yeah, there were statistical indications that he would do well.

The comp between Gathright and Ellsbury is a bit more plausible. Gathright is worse, of course, but people are praising them primarily because they are defensive specialists and are burners.

by beastball on Dec 6, 2006 7:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that was my point.

yes, henderson was a little like gathright: they both stole bases. i'm trying not to disrespect the point you're making because i know what you're trying to say but it almost comes off like you're just panning ellsbury for being fast.

career minor league isolated power:

adam jones: .161
ellsbury: .121
gathright: .045

note ellsbury is closer to jones than gathright. there is no word for how little power gathright has. if he had half of ellsbury's sock he'd actually be a pretty interesting player (seriously).

by wily mo on Dec 6, 2006 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

oh, wait, it gets better

rickey henderson: .129. of course, he was a teenager. i'm not serious about any of this rickey stuff.

by wily mo on Dec 6, 2006 9:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Point well stated...

Gathright is so pathetic, he's really beyond compare.

by beastball on Dec 6, 2006 9:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and just think

i mean that's a .045 isop, including all of the leg doubles he probably got on singles hit to weird places. it's unimaginable. i can't picture it.

by wily mo on Dec 6, 2006 9:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I could barely look...

it was such a mangled statistical train wreck.

I mean I orignally thought of Gathright when talking about Ellsbury because it felt like a similiar case of praising the defense and the speed while overlooking significant offensive shortcomings. But before this thread, I'd never really looked closely at Gathright, since as a fantasy minded person I pass over the speed/defense guys, but man, I'd never imagined a guy so bad could've ever been mistaken for good. Wow.

And I remember, at the time, when people thought Gathright was good, there was a rumor that the DRays could've traded him. Man, I would've taken anything for him.

But, you know, its not that hard to figure. Gathright hit for a fair average at the time, all those singles masked how badly he was really doing, in terms of extra base hits and walk rate. I mean his OPS was poor, but at first glance, he looks like a burner who gets on base 40% of the time, too bad he was hitting mid-300s at the time, which meant his walk rate was really not good at all.

As poor as Ellsbury's %XBH is at like 25%, its far superior to Gathright's 13%! And a walk every 13 PAs? Damnz, he may be the worst prospect I've ever had the misfortune to run numbers on.

by beastball on Dec 7, 2006 1:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

splitting hairs

I know this is splitting hairs, but I think that ...

adam jones: .161
ellsbury: .121

... understates the difference in power between Ellsbury and Jones, too. broken down by age:

Age 17: Jones (Rk) .065, Ellsbury (HS) n/a
Age 18: Jones (A) .137, Ellsbury (HS) n/a
Age 19: Jones (A+/AA) .190, Ellsbury (NCAA) n/a
Age 20: Jones (AAA) .197, Ellsbury (NCAA) n/a
Age 21: Jones (???) n/a, Ellsbury (SS-A) .115
Age 22: Jones (???) n/a, Ellsbury (A+/AA) .122

I omitted Jones' MLB futility from his Age-20 stats, and 13 short-season AB's at age 17, but I don't see any reason to suspect that Jones won't have a .200+ isoP eventually, if he's doing so much at such young ages.

by BobbyMac on Dec 7, 2006 12:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

good

that's a nice comeback, you've got a point there.

really my only point here is that comparing any player's power to joey gathright is a mortal insult which cannot be tolerated.

by wily mo on Dec 7, 2006 12:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Defense

"However, hitting is the only other tool where he profile as average, however, as he has no usable power and a poor throwing arm to go along with an indifferent, inconsistent approach to defense."
From BA's trade Central (free content)
Besides the others points people have made, Ellsbury is a (possible) future gold glover in center and has fantastic instincts, while Gathright just isn't that good in center and only survives because of his speed.

by wir963 on Dec 9, 2006 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have seen Ellsbury play in AA

And he is impressive. Great speed, instinct and intelligence. Plus he is getting better, hitting well in AA Eastern League which is known as a pitcher's league. Yes his hitting is not awesome right now, but he will improve. I also saw Hanley Ramirez in 2005 play for the Sea Dogs and Hanley struggled for an entire year hitting for XBH's. I think we all saw how well that translated in the major leagues.

I still see Ellsbury as somebody CF'er in 2007. Hopefully it will not be another mistake Boston makes and he is their CF'er, not someone like Pittsburgh or San Fransisco

by dlpme77 on Dec 6, 2006 6:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not to reallly continue the debate...

Because with Ellsbury and Sweeney, there has to be other things going on, and you have first hand experience with Ellsbury, so you have more information than I do.

A comp for Hanley and Ellsbury isn't fair, really, because of age v comp.

And I'll concede, it was his first year, but given potential peak numbers, I think I'd rather have Jones in CF, assuming there's not some huge difference in defense.

Just from what I've read and the numbers, he's a defensive, burner. What he has got going for him is that it appears that he can get on base. But I'd rather lose the stolen bases and get some extra base hits in there, and it seems that is what Jones would do for you.

by beastball on Dec 6, 2006 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's cool

Again, we are arguing something that 95% chance will not even need to be debated. To me Jones and ellsbury is close, and which is why if I had both I stated before I would take 2007 to access both, then move one for a young power hitting 1B'men or 3B'men next offseason

by dlpme77 on Dec 6, 2006 6:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs