2007 Arizona Diamondbacks Prospects

by John Sickels on Dec 6, 2006 12:06 PM EST in News Comment 57 comments

Justin Upton, OF, Grade A- (He was coasting this year but should improve)
Chris Young, OF, B+ (Should do everything except hit for average)
Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Grade B+ (Weak plate discipline prevents A- grade)
Miguel Montero, C, B+ (solid all-around catching prospect)
Alberto Callaspo, 2B, B (Hits for average and fields well)
Micah Owings, RHP, B (solid all-around pitching prospect)
Brett Anderson, LHP, B (polished high school lefty should move quickly)
Gerardo Parra, OF, B (not as much power as Gonzalez, but more speed and polish)
Dustin Nippert, RHP, B- (Seems nervous in the majors)
Brooks Brown, RHP, B- (Another solid all-around pitching prospect)
Cyle Hankerd, OF, B- (very strong bat, but where does he fit?)
Mark Reynolds, UT, C+ (good power, utility glove, Mark Bellhorn type?)
Emilio Bonifacio, 2B, C+ (Good speed)
Chris Carter, 1B, C+ (very strong bat, but where does he fit?)
Matt Torra, RHP, C+ (Pitched well in August recovering from labrum surgery)
Hector Ambriz, RHP, C+ (yet another solid all-around pitching prospect)
Javier Brito, 1B, C+ (see Chris Carter)
Alberto Gonzalez, SS, C+ (good glove)
Steven Jackson, RHP, C+ (excellent season in Double-A following mechanical rebuild)
Ross Ohlendorf, RHP, C+ (sleeper who throws strikes)

Others of Interest: Brian Barden, 3B: Dallas Buck, RHP; Osbek Castillo, RHP; Pedro Ciriaco, SS; Jamie D'Antonia, 1B; Ryan Doherty, RHP; Kyler Newby, RHP; Cesar Nicolas, 1B; Jailen Peguero, RHP; Tony Pena, RHP; Chris Rahl, OF; Danny Richar, 2B; Greg Smith, LHP, Dan Stange, RHP; Bryan Thompson, RHP.

The Diamondbacks in One Sentence: Graduation to the majors of guys like Drew, Jackson, and Quentin hurt upper-level system depth, but there is still plenty of talent in this system, and they have a proven ability to recharge quickly.

Max Scherzer is a Grade B or B+, haven't decided yet. When/If he signs, he would slot in at Number Five.

Note: Remember that ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.

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Comments

mark reynolds

Only #16? I know the Dbacks are deep, but I expected him to come in higher than that with his excellent production at AA in '06, as well as with the USA team. I'm also hoping he sticks at 2b.

I comment on this purely for fantasy reasons... Should I cut the guy loose in 16-team league with with about 180 minor leaguers?

by greg456 on Dec 6, 2006 12:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reynolds

Wasn't he pretty old for High A? Lancanster is a launching pad too.

by bl on Dec 6, 2006 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

reynolds

he was 22-23 this year: a year old for A+ but not, like, ye olde marke reynoldes or anything. by the time he got to AA he was about right age-wise, and while he did slow down he didn't crater (1000+ OPS went down to 890, still with good power). he hit in the fall, too, although the AFL has its own problems.

he's not the next chase utley or anything but i think he did figure something out this year.

by wily mo on Dec 6, 2006 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

reynolds

I can see that being too low. Actually his defensive versatility would make him more valuable than Carter. I think I will change that.

by John Sickels on Dec 6, 2006 12:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I moved reynolds

I moved Reynolds up.

by John Sickels on Dec 6, 2006 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Did you use the old

Dbacks logo on purpose?

by themurph on Dec 6, 2006 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If so...

I hope John uses the ol' Blue Jay's logo when he does their report...

by almantle on Dec 6, 2006 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

gonzalez, young

I personally think both are A- prospects, especially Young, who's the best CF prospect in the game right now.

But Sickels, just like everyone else, has the right to grade prospects his own way, and be biased for his own reasons.

I think Torra and especially Ohlendorf are ranked too low. At least Parra is getting some loving.

by levski on Dec 6, 2006 12:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Young

Very good player but I am not sure if he's the best CF prospect in baseball. Give me Maybin, McCutchen and maybe Justin Upton over him IMO.

by bl on Dec 6, 2006 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm...

and be biased for his own reasons

Pot, meet kettle.

by rp0806 on Dec 6, 2006 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

why?

aren't you also biased for your own reasons? isn't everyone?

by levski on Dec 6, 2006 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

young

I am going to switch Young ahead of Gonzalez. He is ready and Gonzalez isn't.

by John Sickels on Dec 6, 2006 12:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Young

Hi John, last year Young was an A-, why the downgrade to B+? Is it the concern about batting average? Thanks!!!

"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." -Red Barber

by e 6 on Dec 6, 2006 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

young

His MLE for Tucson wasn't that good. However I am still thinking about this and might go back to A-.

by John Sickels on Dec 6, 2006 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Source?

My MLEs suggest he's already a league average bat at worse: .247/.320/.461

by Jurgen on Dec 6, 2006 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Minor League Splits

MLS has him at .229/.302/.435.

by battlekow on Dec 7, 2006 12:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baseball Think Factory

Is where I got mine. That's a substantial swing.

by Jurgen on Dec 7, 2006 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

should be A-

I can't his is downgraded due to a "concern about batting average" because Young made great improvements in making contact this year.

Where he used to look like a .250 in the big leagues he might be more like a .270-.280 hitter now.

by FI on Dec 6, 2006 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

and if it's the MLEs, i think you have to take the preseason wrist break into account. plus it seemed like something weird was going on in tucson this year. what were drew's MLEs? seemed like nobody hit there.

by wily mo on Dec 6, 2006 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nobody hit down there?

Somebody tell Scott Hairston.

Some Tuscon MLEs:

Drew
.254/.303/.402

Hammock
.260/.304/.451

Quentin
.259/.376/.426

Hairston
.291/.361/.519

by Jurgen on Dec 6, 2006 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

scott hairston is nobody.

i rest my case.

yeah, he should really get a shot from somebody, to do something, someday.

by wily mo on Dec 6, 2006 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hairston

it's a shame Hairston looks like the odd man out in AZ right now

unless the dbacks trade eric byrnes, as they should

by levski on Dec 6, 2006 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wrist

correcting myself: i said broken wrist, it was really a broken hand, which isn't as bad. still, it probably didn't help.

by wily mo on Dec 6, 2006 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

agree

Young should be an A- or even a flat out A. He may be the surest bet to be a 30-30 man with GG defense in the minors right now. Sure there may be others in the lower level with more tools, there may be a few in the upper level with better numbers, but when you factor everything (tools, numbers, discipline, and maybe most importantly, age) is there really anyone that is a surer thing at this point? Maybe a Delmon Young, but not much else.

by ScottAZ on Dec 6, 2006 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

agree

and well put.

Another point: if this weren't Rizzo's legacy list, Hankerd would be higher than 11 & drawing more interest from the community, here. He's the type of guy, I think, who forces his way into the majors, albeit via trade, by 2008.

by Azteca on Dec 7, 2006 1:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

new top 3

John, I would agree with Upton, Young, Gonzalez.

As I hinted above, I'd move Torra to around Brown's spot and Ohlendorf behind Reynolds and ahead of Bonifacio. Ohlendorf is not as good of a prospect as Owings or Nippert in the high majors, but he's a ground ball pitcher who throws strikes and will be figuring in the rotation in 2008 for sure.

Again, this is just my 2c.

by levski on Dec 6, 2006 12:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

is the chris carter grade

independent of organization, or does it factor in his being blocked at virtually all positions where his defense is passable?

would his grade be the same if he were in an organization like florida that could use a legitimate bat at first base?

it's a bad strategy to base your lineup on the relative beauty of a man's outs rather than the rate at which he makes them.

by overlord on Dec 6, 2006 12:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

carter

i don't think carter can play 1b. or play it enough to be a full time 1bman. he'd make a solid DH...

by levski on Dec 6, 2006 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Carter

Who would be a good comp for Carter? Does he have Ortiz/Hafner/Giambi upside as a DH, or more of a Sweeney/Hattenberg/Durazo type? What kind of numbers does he project for now? peak?

by JimBeau on Dec 6, 2006 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

I would give Upton a B+, but he really hasn't done anything to earn the A yet.

Carter should be a B-

Others to note should include Jereme Milons

by ScottAZ on Dec 6, 2006 12:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

jereme milons?

as in, top 20 most interesting names? the guy is not a prospect

by levski on Dec 6, 2006 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good tools

great athlete, he's a few adjustments away from being solid player, hard to say he isn't a prospect. yes he has his issues, but things could click for him

by SoCalSoxFan on Dec 6, 2006 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

As in interesting names, obviously not top 20. He has too many tools to not be interesting. Also, look at his lines. They have steadily improved as he's moved up the ladder.

He is a longshot, but anytime you have an A+ athlete that has shown steady improvement you label him worth watching

by ScottAZ on Dec 6, 2006 8:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Upton and Young...

if any one of them is the A prospect, it's Young.

Young is a very good defensive CFer. He won't hit for average, but he's improved his K:BB ratio as he's moved up. He'll hit for power, get on base, and hit for decent average.

Still one of the minors most underrated prospects.

And their pitching is slowly improving, but right now it's not so impressive.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 6, 2006 12:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I can see Upton ahead of Young...

based on Justin's age and pedigree, but Chris still seems like an A- minus to me.

.247/.320/.461 MLEs as a 22-year-old with plus-plus defense in CF don't grow on trees.

by Jurgen on Dec 6, 2006 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

pitching

the dbacks actually have pretty good depth at pitching. they just need one or two of these prospects to take the next step and emerge as clear number 2 guys behind webb. i think owings and torra are two guys who can do that in the short term, and anderson/scherzer more long term.

by levski on Dec 6, 2006 12:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Young

Did Young rate any consideration for being an A-? I'm guessing not, since you had him below Gonzalez at first. This sort of surprises me. I was extremely impressed with his growth spurt in 2006! Usually, I don't put much stock in "trends", but when it involves reducing K's (without sacrificing power), isn't that a big deal?

by BobbyMac on Dec 6, 2006 12:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Greg Smith

Posted pretty impressive numbers in the Cal League pitching in a notoriously tough park (though a college guy), but seems to have struggled somewhat upon promotion to AA (declining K rate a concern). In a system relatively bereft of pitching prospects, I thought Smith could be counted on to amount to something, and figured he might be on the cusp of bottom of team's B- / top of C+ list and described as "solid".

How close was he to the top 20, and I would be interested in hearing people's views on how he profiles in MLB: (i) as a back of the rotation type, (ii) a reliever (with his background as a starter, hopefully something more than a loogy), or (iii) not at all. Thanks.

by Mario66 on Dec 6, 2006 12:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

D'Backs Catcher

How good is Miguel Montero? Chris Snyder looks good but I hear the competition is open. What do you think will happen? This year and into the future.

by jaguar2490 on Dec 6, 2006 1:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Young a B+?

Not only do I think that grade is low by at least a notch or two, but I have yet to see anything out of Justin Upton other than scouting reports that makes me think he deserves to be #1 over Young. I agree with several of the earlier posters in that Young is consistently underrated. The only knock I've ever heard is batting average (or contact) with every other tool being above average. That sounds like a A or at least an A- by your standards John.

If Young were 24 or 25 I might have pause that the contact rate won't improve, but he just turned 23 in September so I think he has some time. It also seems strange that he earned an A- last year, cut down on his K's, made the majors and held his own, improved his power, and flashed good D in CF, but now gets a B+? Just my opinion, but I think he's one of the top prospects in baseball right now.

"When people talk, listen completely. Most people never listen." (Hemingway)

by jmoultz on Dec 6, 2006 1:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yeah

i really can't see chris youg and anthony swarzak at the same grade right now. just does not compute. who am i, of course. maybe i'm missing something.

by wily mo on Dec 6, 2006 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Young over Upton

I don't know how much the pedigree counts for Justin Upton. B.J. was a better player at age 18, and while he's still an excellent prospect, he hasn't progressed as one might have hoped for.

I'd take the player who has already made significant strides in turning formidable tools into skills than the one with the raw tools.

by Mike Green on Dec 6, 2006 3:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

comments

Montero-B+ may be a tick high, seems like his game is a bit stiff, especially behind the plate. I know he can hit, and his glove has supposedly improved, but not too long ago he reminded me a lot of chris carter, or maybe even a good comp would be daric barton when he was catching, good/very good stick, but stiff defensively which IMO has to downgrade his entire package/grade. If Gonzalez is a B+, I can't see Montero being a B+ too, CG could be a star some day but i can't see Montero being that.

Emilio Bonifacio-"good speed" doesn't even begin to sum him up, he's one of those guys that seems to have a hard time rounding the bases he's so fast, like a young lofton speed wise. . .easily the fastest guy i saw in the Cal last year.

by SoCalSoxFan on Dec 6, 2006 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Young

is one of my favorites.

Someone asked last week if the DBacks ought to regret taking Upton instead of Gordon. I'm inclined to say they should, especially since Upton moved immediately to the OF. They could have an infield right now of Montero, Jackson, Callaspo, Gordon and Drew, with Young, Quentin and Byrnes in the outfield with Gonzales on the way. That would be INSANE! As it is they have an amazing bounty, but the opportunity to bring a group like that up to the majors all at once would be too much to pass up, if they could do the thing over, I'd think.

"Well I believe in the soul..."

by D O on Dec 6, 2006 3:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

D-backs CF situation

Considering the contracts that Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr got recently, how much would a Young or Upton fetch in a trade in a couple of years time when both are ready? I would think that 3B will be an easier position to fill than CF.

by William K on Dec 6, 2006 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, that's true

but i doubt they could get somebody as good as gordon's gonna be. and if they did then that player would likely be older/more expensive.

"Well I believe in the soul..."

by D O on Dec 6, 2006 9:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wow

Reynolds and Carter only C+ prospects?

I think you just ran the normal grade curve on the D'Backs and gave the shaft to their prospects past the obvious cream of the crop.

If the D'Backs 11-20 are mostly C grade, then the Nats need to have D- prospects in their lower half.

Reynolds plays multiple premium positions with a potential above-average bat... he's gotta get at least a B-.

Carter has had a premium bat since day 1 and really looks like an older Billy Butler statistically... C+? I agree that the defense brings him down at least a letter grade, but his bat is top notch and that leaves him at least at a B- as well.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Dec 6, 2006 3:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Does John's comment on Upton

worry anyone else as much as it does me?

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Dec 6, 2006 4:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

coasting?

Mike, I don't buy the coasting idea. I think Justin was simply adjusting to a new position and a much tougher level of competition than he was used to.

I personally think that the accounts of his "attitude problems" have been greatly exaggerated. Ditto for Carlos Gonzalez, fwiw.

by levski on Dec 6, 2006 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

don't buy it either

the first year in a pros isn't really a time to coast -- what's the psychological basis for that statement, transcripts from his shrink?

he underperformed expectations and while he obviously has the talent to move past that, it still raises a minor flag for me.

by scooter on Dec 7, 2006 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

evidence

If scouts are recording his time from home plate to first as well below his potential during in-game situations, what other conclusions should we draw? That he's hiding a leg injury?

by FI on Dec 7, 2006 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Upton

Best batting practice in the minors, fwiw, which isn't much, which is my point. To me Upton's third behind Young and Gonzalez on this list until he proves otherwise. I'd take Maybin, McCutchen, or Bruce or Upton right now for the long-term.

by JakeFree on Dec 8, 2006 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eduardo Baeza

Did you keep him off the list because of the injury concerns?

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Dec 6, 2006 4:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Osbek Castillo

Castillo has a higher K/9 rate and a lower BB/9 rate than Hector Ambriz.

Why is Castillo listed as an other? Is it an age thing?

by gunkdog on Dec 6, 2006 4:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Age and stuff

Castillo at 25 was much older than the rest of the Pioneer League. He is more in the El Duque mould where he uses offspeed stuff to keep batters off balance. That obviously works well against newly drafted kids but it remains to be seen if he can fool hitters at Double A or a higher level.
Ambriz on the other hand has a mid-90s fastball so he could move fast if he remains as a reliever.