2007 Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects

by John Sickels on Dec 31, 2006 12:59 PM EST in News Comment 27 comments

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Grade A- (Made huge progress last year, doing well in Double-A in his first full season)
Brad Lincoln, RHP, B+ (should progress quickly assuming good health)
Brent Lillibridge, SS, B (Watch this guy, he could be really good)
Neil Walker, C, B- (Starting to look overrated to me)
Brian Bixler, INF, C+ (utility guy? Might not hit quite enough to be a starter)
Mike Felix, LHP, C+ (interesting lefty from '06 draft)
Todd Redmond, RHP, C+ (very nice year in Sally League, strong K/BB ratios)
Josh Sharpless, RHP, C+ (I like him in the bullpen)
Yoslan Herrera, RHP, C+ (Cuban defector, could be good, who knows?)
Shelby Ford, 3B, C+ (good sleeper from '06 draft)
Wardell Starling, RHP, C+ (for some reason I continue to think he is a sleeper)
Stephen Pearce, 1B, C+ (hit 40 doubles, 26 homers, intriguing power)
Jim Negrych, 2B, C+ (intriguing bat from University of Pittsburgh in '06 draft)
Jonah Bayliss, RHP, C (I like him better than this grade)
Justin Vaclavik, RHP, C (relief prospect with good arm, could be C+ perhaps)
John VanBenschoten, RHP, C (all depends on health)
Juan Perez, LHP, C (LOOGY candidate)
Javier Guzman, SS, C (Age-Gate reduces his grade to C)
Jesse Chavez, RHP, C (relief sleeper with good arm)
Rajai Davis, OF (speed demon reserve outfield type)

Others of Note: Adam Boeve, OF; Pat Bresnehan, RHP; Brad Corley, OF; David Davidson, LHP;
Jason Delaney, OF; Jared Hughes, RHP; Austin McClune, OF; Nyjer Morgan, OF; Franquelis Osoria, RHP;
Brian Rogers, RHP; Romulo Sanchez, RHP; Josh Shortslef, LHP; Shane Youman, LHP.

The Pirates System in One Sentence: A thin system that lacks impact talent as well as depth.

I like the top three guys but after that it thins out very, very quickly. There isn't much difference between the C+ and C guys, all of them have major questions or project as spare parts and not impact guys.

ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.

There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.

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I haven't give up on Walker yet

walker's numbers, especially his power, were really affected by the wrist surgery.....it took him forever to get back up to speed after his mid-may return........i don't think he ever really got his strength back all season.....

that being said, he did show improved plate discipline and not being able to work with the bat for so long really improved his defense......his passed balls were way down and there is no longer talk of him being moved from C.......

the HR's will come and this switch-hitting catcher will make some big strides in '07.......

by Wheelhouse on Dec 31, 2006 2:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Me Either

I'm not giving up on him for the same reason people aren't giving up on Jeremy Hermida. He has that swing where you just look at it and think he'll get a hit every time, plus the surgery was a big setback

by was385 on Dec 31, 2006 2:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah there is starting to be debate about him

Some guys feel u have to dismiss his offense from last year becaue of the health issues. Others are beginning to think tools wont develop... always interesting to see how these guys do the following year.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Dec 31, 2006 2:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bayliss

He has an outstanding changeup that has baffled minor leaguers, it never really got his career in the MLB going though.

by doublestix on Dec 31, 2006 2:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Russell Johnson...

was one of my "guys to watch" and has been for a while.

What kind of injuries does he keep getting? Seems like he hasn't pitched in forever.

He's easily got one of the best arms in the system, back in 2004 BA was saying he threw 92-95 with a hard curveball.

Breakout candidate if healthy?

by SenorGato88 on Dec 31, 2006 2:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Snell

I know this kid is no longer a prospect, but how do people think he will do this year? Started in 32 games, and had 14 wins, hoping he does a little better, but want your opinion.

by ChrisRef19 on Dec 31, 2006 5:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think he makes some progress.

His HR/FB was anomalously high last year, so if that comes back down to normal, it'll help his ERA.

He has some upside left from a skill standpoint, as well. If he improves his control with the curve and/or his command of the change, he could take a big step forward. A half a walk per nine would make a huge difference for him.

A better defense wouldn't hurt, either, though his K rate insulates him from that somewhat.

by Vlad on Dec 31, 2006 5:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Note to John:

Javier Guzman was 24 last year, not 22; most online sources are wrong. He was one of the guys who got caught lying in that visa thing. See his '82 DOB on the team site here. In that light, you might want to knock him down to a C, or maybe even a C- (i.e. non-prospect).

Walker's glove worries me more than his bat. You have to kick the offense up a notch for analytical purposes, since he was so young relative to league (a 20-year-old putting up reasonable numbers in A+).

Sleeper pick maybe worth attention in the book: Eric Ridener. A long way from the bigs, but he's got good stuff and could move up quickly.

by Vlad on Dec 31, 2006 5:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

thanks

Thanks for the catch on Guzman.

by John Sickels on Dec 31, 2006 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wow

This system BLOWS

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Dec 31, 2006 5:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lillibridge

I've been keeping an eye on this guy ever since John pegged him as a sleeper a year or two ago. He reminds me a lot of Brian Roberts at this point. Definately one to watch because good middle infielders are so rare.

by limozeen on Dec 31, 2006 10:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lillibridge

i can honestly say i don't know much about him......but the first thing that jumps out is why isn't he more advanced given his age? why are his draft class at higher levels then him? he seems old for his level

by Wheelhouse on Jan 1, 2007 12:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lillibridge

Could be pretty good. It is tough to get a read on him though because he has been pretty old for his leagues. He'll be 23.5 before he plays his first game in AA.

by BaseballBrain on Jan 1, 2007 10:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ARL

I have a hard time saying that 23.5 is old for AA if you consider a college draftee is likely drafted at age 21 meaning around his 2nd full season he is in AA which is not bad for someone who was not a top pick

by mtk52983 on Jan 1, 2007 1:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's just an opinion

I guess it's just an opinion but to me that's about a year behind schedule for a good prospect.

A guy who is very nearly 23 ought to dominate Low and High A in my opinion.

If he posts the same #'s in AA at age 23/24 as he did in Low and High A, then I'll revise my opinion, and he does have a chance to do that, but I'm not going to get too excited until I see it.

by BaseballBrain on Jan 1, 2007 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what does this mean?

C (I like him better than this grade)

if you like him better than this, why not a higher grade?

by SoCalSoxFan on Jan 1, 2007 12:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hey John --

I do believe you forgot Byran Bullington. I can't believe he was intentionally left off your list with some of the other names you listed even with his surgery.

And Johnny V at 16th? I saw him in Bradenton last year stretching his arm and there's no way he's 16th best in the system. His heavy heater and downward plane with late movement, even without full touch-n-feel yet, warrants at least a #5 on the list. He'll be a (Pirates) #3 - #4 easily, imo.

Plus, if he parks the arm and gets his bat speed back up to par, he'd be a lot more valuable than Bixler anyway. I think you missed the boat on him.

Shelby Ford is a goldmine for an overpick. He turned around last year for the entire year at 2B - first time by the way he did it the entire year, and his motions started to come together late. Soft hands, plus arm, and a nice swing. This kid's for real.

Felix ahead of Sharpless and Redmond but you only gave Youman an honorable mention? Hmm..

by JolietJake on Jan 1, 2007 3:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

JVB

Given his age now, I'd imagine that JVB is lucky to even be on this list.

And Bullington is worthless.

by calig23 on Jan 1, 2007 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

JVB

His ERAs by level, pre-injury:

Class A -- 2.75
Class AA -- 3.69
Class AAA -- 4.72

There seems to be a trend here.

by WTM on Jan 1, 2007 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BTW John

I don't know how Diamond Futures does thier rankings but they didn't even list Lincoln.. nor did USA Today. hmm..

by JolietJake on Jan 1, 2007 3:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Diamond Futures

is formula based and can severely underrate guys who only play part of a season. I think most of us here are underrating these guys too. There's a reason why Lincoln was a consensus top 5 draft pick.

by Brickhaus on Jan 2, 2007 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wardell Starling ...

Best hitter on the list?

by StickRat on Jan 1, 2007 3:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Left off best

You left off Brandon Holden from Florida. This kid could have gone in the 1st round if not for a high school sore arm and the Pirates stole him. This was Littlefield's best snatch of the season!

He was awesome in Instructional's, showing the heat and hammer curve that got him noted in the first place.

Clearly, should have hit the top 20.

by pga514 on Jan 1, 2007 1:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Uh...

Has Holden even pitched at all in the minors? I don't think you can put a guy who hasn't played at all in the top 20.

by calig23 on Jan 1, 2007 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why not?

Lars Anderson was #5/6 in boston. The kid has the skills, it's not like he's never picked up a bat or ball before. He's judging him based on the information he's got.

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 1, 2007 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs