Billy Butler

by UncleBuck44 on Dec 30, 2006 10:50 PM EST

Can anyone tell me why Billy Butler is not a consensus Top 10 prospect in MLB?
And I will not accept poor defense as an answer because he is going to be playing for an AL ballclub and as well all know, the AL has a position called Designated Hitter(DH) that allows a player to get 4-5 at bats a game without having to play defense.

I keep seeing his name pop up in the 10-20 range and I keep seeing "poor defense" as the reason he's not higher. I also know he is slow, but again, DH/1Bmen that hit for power don't necessarily need speed.

Can anyone tell me why Butler really isn't a Top 10 prospect? Is there some major flaw in his game besides something that won't plague him whatsoever in the majors?

Am I reaching when I predict his best seasons to be around:
.320, 35 HR, 110 RBI, .400 OBP?

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My guess

Would be his piss poor defense... many prospects lose some value if they cant play the field.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Dec 30, 2006 11:09 PM EST reply actions

defense

All reports say his defense improved this year and the guy even went to Instructs to work further on his defense after the season.

He's a top 10 prospect and should be on every single list.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Dec 30, 2006 11:30 PM EST reply actions

yep

Yep, he improved a lot this year from all the reports I have heard. By "defense", I think people mean range and mobility, because his arm is among the best in the minors.

His ceiling is probably Manny Ramirez, or maybe Carlos Lee, but who knows if he can reach it, or not. I think Butler is one of those guys who will be a 15-20 HR guy for the first 2-3 years in the bigs, with people wondering if he'll ever reach his potential, then he'll break out in his age 25-26 year and hit 30-35. He'll always hit for high average though.

Lotsa numbers sorry. :)

by doublestix on Dec 31, 2006 12:03 AM EST up reply actions

Defense/position

He's a DH, everyone knows that. There are two problems with that.
1)DH is an easy position to fill. It's similarly difficult for first basemen to crack top-10 lists, though quite not as hard. Butler is as close to a top-10 prospect at DH as you'll see, but it's still hard to put him ahead of guys who are almost as good with the bat and play more difficult defensive positions (e.g. Chris Young the outfielder)
2)Being a fulltime DH can actually be a hindrance to the team. Arguably the biggest advantage of having the DH slot is that it lets you keep your best hitters in the lineup while resting them or nursing injuries, particularly lower-body ailments like pulled hamstrings. Thus by being a full-time DH, even if he's not directly costing the team runs with his poor defense, he is costing them runs indirectly by keeping other good players out of the lineup at some times when they could still hit.

That said, I'm working on my personal top-10 list and right now I have him right at 10. He's bloody good. That projection looks pretty good; if anything his OBP might be a bit higher.

by delomir on Dec 30, 2006 11:35 PM EST reply actions

Maybe i was to brief

From what i have read is that hes tried hard to improve his defense but it just isnt working and most people think he will have to DH.

If you asked people to rank guys purely on their bat, i think he would be a top 10, but defense and defensive position is a very valuable aspect of the game, and makes a difference...

e.g. Bill Rowell of the orioles ranks as a much better prospect as a 3rd baseman then a 1st baseman... some people downgrade him a little because his tools at the bat wont be as valuable as a first baseman, that doesnt mean they say hes not a good prospect, just it is something that counts against him (a negative if you will).

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Dec 30, 2006 11:49 PM EST reply actions

I personally think it's ridiculous

His bat is amazing, he's got everything you could want there. While he's not a particularly good fielder he's also not awful at this point. Perhaps most important, he shows dedication to wanting to improve defensively. A Gold Glover he will never be, but I see no reason why he can't play at least a passable corner OF.

I'm still working on my own top prospects list, but here's a tidbit for you. While I don't include Daisuke on my list, I rate Butler as the #4 prospect in the game.

by mrkupe on Dec 30, 2006 11:55 PM EST reply actions

age

In my opinion he is so young for anyone to say "He's a future DH" is a moron.

Nobody has any idea what he can do once he Learns the game and gets practice.

Could you handle being a ML outfielder at 19?

Not many can......

by colinadam on Dec 31, 2006 12:40 AM EST reply actions

I guess...

... every respected publication and scout must be a moron then... the whole point of prospects is that they are being projected... people dont believe, based on what he is doing currently and how they feel he will develop, that he can play the field effectivley.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Dec 31, 2006 12:48 AM EST reply actions

well....

most respected publications and scouts had Butler pegged as a 2nd-3rd round pick coming out of highschool and the Royals were panned for yet-another-signability-pick. It looks like they may have been wrong about him then--perhaps they are again? perhaps they continue to undervalue his skillset. perhaps they don't want to admit they are wrong.

by nwroyal on Dec 31, 2006 12:59 AM EST up reply actions

BA and John

have said Butler's defense improved dramatically this year and I specifically remember BA stating that Butler is now considered a viable OF candidate.

by eazyb81 on Dec 31, 2006 7:00 PM EST up reply actions

not what they say in his prospect write up

u have a link?

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Dec 31, 2006 7:11 PM EST up reply actions

Nope

it was mentioned many times over the summer in their daily updates.

by eazyb81 on Jan 2, 2007 10:24 AM EST up reply actions

ok... getting sensative here

Here is what BA said baout him in this years KC top 10 where he was ranked 3rd behind Gordon (the concensus #1 prospect in baseball and Hochevar, though in the chat they said it was a toss up for number 2 between Hochevar and butler)

Billy Butler, of
Drafted: HS--Jacksonville, 2004 (1st round) * Signed by: Cliff Pastornicky

Background: In 2004, Butler and Eric Hurley (Rangers) made Jacksonville Wolfson the fifth high school ever to produce two first-rounders in the same draft. Somewhat of a surprise selection at No. 14, Butler has justified the pick by hitting .344/.417/.564 as a pro. He won the Texas League batting title and the Futures Game MVP award in 2006, and capped the year by hitting .313 while helping Team USA qualify for the 2008 Olympics.

Strengths: With excellent bat speed, balance and a cerebral approach, Butler has no real weakness as a hitter. He has great plate coverage and will hit the ball where it is pitched. He has the best raw power in the system and is still learning how to turn on inside pitches. He's content to go the other way, particularly with runners on base.

Weaknesses: While there are no questions about his bat, Butler's defense is another story. Drafted as a third baseman, he since has moved to the outfield. His arm is strong enough for right field, but his speed is below average and his routes and footwork need plenty of work.

The Future: There are no doubts that Butler has the bat to be an all-star, but his lack of defensive skills might mean his future is as a DH. He desperately wants to prove he can play the outfield and the Royals will give him every chance to do so in Triple-A this year. His bat could force him to Kansas City by midseason.

Sounds to me like they admit that he (billy) has proved people wrong, and that they think very highly of his bat, but still dont believe in his glove, though they admit he busts his but to prove he can field.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Dec 31, 2006 1:23 AM EST reply actions

Well

I think he'll be fine in the OF for at least a little while, so I have no qualms with Butler as a top 5 prospect. His performance has been amazing any way you cut it, and the ARL only makes it stronger.

by limozeen on Dec 31, 2006 1:29 AM EST reply actions

First Base

First off, isn't this the final year of Mike Sweeney's contract? I've heard some talk of Butler playing first, but it kind of appears OF or DH is his future home by reading the responses. Is Ryan Shealy the 1Bman of the future there or is it more of a possibility that Butler is?

Second, whoever called me a moron is a jackass. Seriously. All I said was Butler is going to be a DH and you call me a moron for thinking that.

by UncleBuck44 on Dec 31, 2006 2:00 AM EST reply actions

ehm

Shealy is most likely the 1B of the future, there was some speculation that Butler would play there, but that was before the Shealy acquisition. The Royals will give Butler every oppurtunity to play the outfield before "bannishing" him to the DH spot.

by doublestix on Dec 31, 2006 2:19 AM EST up reply actions

Shealy

Think the Royals might trade Shealy for pitching if he does well to start the year and then move Butler to 1st base. Or is Shealy too good to deal away?
The Royals will probably need the pitching more if they can get a 3-4-5 of Gordon, Butler and Lubanski in 2008-2009.
They gave up two decent pitchers in Bautista and Affeldt that just weren't able to put it together in KC for Shealy.

by UncleBuck44 on Dec 31, 2006 2:29 AM EST up reply actions

No

No, if Shealy proves to be good, I think the Royals will keep him. He could be part of a deadly 3-6 that includes Gordon, Teahen, Butler and himself, that's not including Lubes either. He will also be cheap for the next 2-3 years, which is in favor of the Royals.

Yes, the R's will definitely need pitching, but I think Dayton has confidence that at least 2 or 3 of Hochevar, Lumsden, Buckner, and Greinke will pan out as expected. Meche is locked in for a while, and Luke Hudson looked like a diamond plucked out of the woods last year. Also, with Sweeney, Sanders, and Elarton off the books after this year, I think Dayton will take a stab at another free agent, if he needs to.

by doublestix on Dec 31, 2006 2:40 AM EST up reply actions

moron

I didn't mean you (but I can see it looked that way).

I was talking more about the prospect watchers that have said that from day 1.

My bad......

by colinadam on Dec 31, 2006 12:23 PM EST up reply actions

subject

Will they still be morons when Butler turns out to be a DH? Or at that time will you be the moron for calling people that had it right the whole time morons?

by Josh @ Minor League Ball on Dec 31, 2006 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

They will still be morons

when Butler is starting in RF for KC in September of 07.

by eazyb81 on Dec 31, 2006 7:01 PM EST up reply actions

milb.com

Article on milb.com said Butler would be given an oppurtunity to win a job next spring. That's probably contingent on the Sanders, Brown, and Costa being with the organization, though. I think it's better served he gets time in Omaha, even if it was just for half the season.

by doublestix on Dec 31, 2006 7:08 PM EST up reply actions

I have heard 1st as well

I think the feeling is he has slow reaction time, and that wont play at 1st... but that always suprised me because dont u need quick reactions to hit a baseball, i guess its different when u have to move your feet too.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Dec 31, 2006 2:16 AM EST reply actions

1B

His arm would be wasted at 1B and he'd probably be bad defensively there as well.

If you're not going to use him in RF or LF, then he might as well be the DH.

I think he'll be fine in LF. He doesn't need range or athleticism as long as he learns how to take good routes to the ball and get good jumps. His arm will make up for a few of the hits he'll allow by having bad range.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Dec 31, 2006 2:31 AM EST reply actions

My thoughts...

First, I agree that calling people names is in poor taste. Such is the Internet, I guess - some people enjoy making personal attacks instead of just commenting on the ideas, and leaving it at that.

That said, I think that a player has to really really rake to be a great player as a DH. Some examples, leaning on BP's metrics:

Ortiz - .344 EqA, 76.8 VORP, 9.4 WARP3
M-Cab - .342 EqA, 78.7 VORP, 11.7 WARP3

That's almost two and a half wins' difference, with very similar PA totals(!)

Personally, I still think Butler's a top-10 prospect (I loved the "5-tool player: hitting, hitting for power, throwing arm, hitting some more, hitting for power some more" quip someone had above him in a previous discussion). But it's a fine line with a DH. Players as good as Carlos Pena and Ruby Durazo are out of jobs, so "replacement value" at DH is pretty good. I'm hoping he can be a starting OF, but I think the jury is still out on that question.

by BobbyMac on Dec 31, 2006 3:15 AM EST reply actions

I read

that comment as well and loved it instantly. "5-tool player: hitting, hitting for power, throwing arm, hitting some more, hitting for power some more"

No matter where this guy plays he is going to get a chance and the reps needed to improve. He'll never be a Gold Glove outfielder but still adequate enough to catch routine flies and make an occasional throwing gem. Whats not to like about a guy who works hard to improve as Butler has and has the bat that he does?

by tbach81 on Dec 31, 2006 12:00 PM EST up reply actions

subject

Whats not to like you ask? How about if the guy runs like a catcher in the outfield?

by Josh @ Minor League Ball on Dec 31, 2006 1:25 PM EST up reply actions

Except that he doesn't

Not that he's a great athlete, but he is working on improving his defense and should be an adequate fielder in right. He has a great work ethic and also has plenty time to improve on his D, he's only 21 keep in mind.

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Dec 31, 2006 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

20

He's actually only 20...doesn't turn 21 until late April.

by eazyb81 on Dec 31, 2006 7:03 PM EST up reply actions

butler being butler

let him come to Boston, we're used to piss poor defending in LF.

by nheck on Dec 31, 2006 11:19 PM EST up reply actions

subject

You are right he is only 21. I'm sure we can both agree that he isn't the fastest guy in the minors. He also isn't going to be getting any faster. As he ages and fills out he will slow down even more. It isn't a question of does he have the wheels to play the outfield when he is 22, but what happens when he is 27?

That said I think he has a chance to be a force with the bat. He is in a league with the DH so he should be just fine. I don't by the line that it hurts his team if he is the DH and they can't rotate players. Is David Ortiz hurting Boston because he is a DH. I don't even think you could find a Yankee fan to say that.

The problem I see is there is to much value placed on what slot he is given. To me it doesn't matter where he ranks when you have a list with both pitchers and hitters on it. If you look just at the bats he is right there with the best. Gordon, Young, Wood, and Butler. How much higher can he get?

by Josh @ Minor League Ball on Jan 1, 2007 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

^ good post

Very well put

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Jan 1, 2007 3:10 PM EST up reply actions

how much higher

i think in cases where he's the 4th or 5th bat mentioned, like you say, that's pretty much right. but there are some prospect lists out there, like the milb.com one or last year's BA, where he's down in the 25-30 range.

by wily mo on Jan 2, 2007 4:17 PM EST up reply actions

Defense is part of the game

Unless your David Ortiz... its gonna hurt you to not be able to play defense.. i know there have been people on here ad nausium screaming he can play.. but fact remians.. not one scouting report anywhere says he can.. they all say he tries hard, but that hes big and slow and has bad instincts. Hes doing his best so hes learning to read the ball off the bat and take good routes, but that can only take you so far.

Now MiLB has him as the 13th best prospect in all of baseball and the 8th best position player. And BA last year is pre-season had him at 29th over all 23rd as far as hitters go. Again in his scouting report they rave about his bat, but werent sure where he would end up defensively.. If he was a sure fire 3rd baseman that bat would net him way higher.. but a 1B or DH its not gonna be as special (though they say something to the light of a bat like Hafner.. which would be a pretty awsome bat). But after back to back big years, hes in the top 10 position players in all of baseball, and probably would be higher but he is a big question mark defensivly and that is GONNA knock him down.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Jan 2, 2007 6:49 PM EST up reply actions

Groupthink

Butler has been labelled as a no-good defensive player and will not be able to shed enough of it for the herd to dismiss it. The fact he is rated in the teens says a lot, though.

Fake Teams

by ephinz on Dec 31, 2006 8:37 AM EST reply actions

Splits

vs LHP: .430/.490/.756
vs RHP: .309/.364/.442

His line against RHP is good but not great, coupled with inability to field could be a factor.

by ian on Dec 31, 2006 1:46 PM EST reply actions

...OK

That's a great point. He's unlikely to improve on those numbers, as he posted those as a 20 year old in AA.

From reports during the season, it seemed as though Butler's defense had improved quite a bit and that it was looking like he could be an adequate defender in the Bigs. If he keeps busting tail and improves, there is no reason why he cannot play the OF for at least the first few years of his ML career.

by rmande09 on Dec 31, 2006 2:42 PM EST up reply actions

let me take a stab at it

>>I keep seeing his name pop up in the 10-20 range and I keep seeing "poor defense" as the reason he's not higher<<

Can anyone say B.J. Upton?

by dombonny on Jan 1, 2007 8:00 PM EST reply actions

yeah

Totally different story there. Upton has the kind of tools that should make him a plus up-the-middle defender.

Butler has the kind of hitting skills that will earn him a job at the MLB level no matter where he goes when his team pitches.

by limozeen on Jan 1, 2007 8:11 PM EST up reply actions

defender?

did you just say defender?

please don't ever use Upton and defender in the same sentence.

by dombonny on Jan 1, 2007 11:26 PM EST up reply actions

+1

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Jan 2, 2007 1:21 AM EST up reply actions

well

There is no denying that Upton's tools are fit for SS, 2B, 3B, or CF. Whether or not he can develop those skills...

by limozeen on Jan 2, 2007 4:55 PM EST up reply actions

BJ Upton

Upton is overrated to begin with. Any T.B. fans should be more than happy to see him ranked in the 10-20 range on any propect list.

by marchmadness on Jan 2, 2007 9:26 AM EST up reply actions

Overrated

Overrated for sure, but as for defence, I think we can all agree that Upton could play a better left field than Butler.

That aside, I've read a fair bit of people saying Butler has upgraded to 'not horrible', and even the negative comments seem to be about how much better he will get, not him plateauing. I'm sure there are left fielders playing in the majors right now who aren't as good defensively now as Butler will end up. (Bonds and Manny, I'm looking at you).

Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Jan 3, 2007 9:38 AM EST up reply actions

ummm

Bonds.. manny.... that would be saying that butler is one of the greatest hitters in the history of the game... and if he is.. then people will put up with his poor defense... otherwise .... DH/1B

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Jan 3, 2007 10:29 AM EST reply actions