Tampa Bay

contend??

My question is: Without a salary cap, does anyone EVER see Tampa Bay making the playoffs ahead of both NYY and Boston? Not only that, Toronto and Baltimore are (arguably) trying to get better in order to compete also. I know TB is young and has some great prospects, but can they ever get ahead of the $$$$-bags in the Northeast?

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Dec 30, 2006 1:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If ownership is reasonable...

and the young players progress as many expect, then I'd guess that attendance would increase, and then they'd add more payroll in the next couple of seasons.

Most teams with some spending limits have to build a foundation from within then sign to fill in the rest.

So unless the TB ownership is reasonable, and their young talent, attendance, and payroll grow as we expect, then I don't think it's unreasonable to think that they could contend.

I don't think there's another team with the combination of depth, balance and high level prospects than TB.

by beastball on Dec 31, 2006 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

a great article in the HardballTimesBaseballAnnual

Made some good points... when a team reaches the playoffs there is a scram for playoff tickets, then many people who either missed out of went through the craziness (standing in line for 24 hours, etc.) decide to avoid it next year by buying season tickets, and even if the team doesnt make the playoffs it still takes about 5 years of sucking before people get fed up and give up their season tix. So there is tremendous revenue incentives to getting to the playoffs. The hard part of a team (especially an expansion team) in the AL east, is you have to do it against some of the richest big spending teams in baseball. But i am pretty sure the drays have played the yanks and redsox competitivley in recent years (even beating them 13 times in 2005). The drays need to find some pitching... but if you get the talent, payroll or no payroll you can win.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Dec 31, 2006 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I remember...

I remember the 2005 TB vs. NYA results being great. I'm sure us non-Yanks fans thought that was a lot more interesting than Yankees fans did. :>

STATS.com has these W-L records:
vs. Boston:

9-10
6-13
5-14

3-yr: 20-37 (.351)

vs. New York:

5-13
11-8
4-15

3-yr: 20-36 (.357)

Considering how good those 2 teams have been, that's probably "playing them tough", but there's still a long way to go. :>

by BobbyMac on Dec 31, 2006 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i guess my memory was selective

I just recall the drays giving boston some fits (doesnt kazmir own them)... so i thought it was better.. well if they ever had any decent pitching maybe they could.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Dec 31, 2006 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup...

The drays need to move an OF for some pitching. Personally, I'd send Baldelli, but then again, I was wrong about Crawford, so maybe Baldelli can start hitting with consistent power and walking, which would make him valuable.

Being in the AL East may seem tough, but remember the wild card kinda changes things up, and the wild card came out of the central this year with a team with a relatively modest payroll.

Anyway, I really like the drays, and even like several of their arms, Niemann, McGee, and Davis. Too bad Niemann is the only one close. If they could flip Bald for a solid starter, then that's just what they need. Anyway I'll be rooting for them, as a general baseball fan.

I think the Blue Jays had the right idea, but it seemed like they jumped into the FA scene a little early. I didn't think they had a real solid home-grown foundation in place yet.

by beastball on Dec 31, 2006 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They should be able to.

Toronto, Minnesota, Detroit, Chisox, Oaktown and the Halos all finished with better records than the Sox last year, so in the future, the Rays could to if their prospects pan out and they sign some good FAs. The org just has to be ran right and it seems to me they are turning things around quickly.

by The Colonel on Dec 30, 2006 2:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think...

they desperately need Young and another guy.....Dukes, Brgnac, ??....to become big-time. They have some real good pieces in place. If Brgnac could step into the SS position soon and Young develops into a run-producing machine, then the offense may be in place. The real question is the arms. Niemann or McGee or Davis or Hamel have got to get it done. 2 of those guys really need to match or come close to what their ceiling is supposed to be. Salas has to become the guy in the closer role. Then a FA signing or 2 would make sense. It's possible but it sure seems like alot of if's.

by melt12 on Dec 30, 2006 3:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ok...

Catcher:    Dioner Navarro
First Base:    Joel Guzman
Second Base:    Jorge Cantu
Third Base:    Evan Longoria
Shortstop:    Reid Brignac
Left Field:    Carl Crawford
Center Field:    Rocco Baldelli
Right Field:    Delmon Young
Designated Hitter:    B.J. Upton
No. 1 Starter:    Scott Kazmir
No. 2 Starter:    Jeff Niemann
No. 3 Starter:    Jacob McGee
No. 4 Starter:    Wade Davis
No. 5 Starter:    Matt Walker
Closer:    Juan Salas

This is the BA projected Lineup for 2010.

This ofcourse assumes that TB won't make any trades or sign any free agents. I think people misunderstand when a team doesn't spend money. Tampa Bay, like their Florida buddies the Marlins, are building a strong farm system. This system will produce some good players, maybe even some great ones. When Tampa Bay realizes or assumes they know what they have in their system and what roles those players will fill they will trade the rest for the missing pieces. Once this is done FA's will see TB's potential and sign with them if they believe they are going to be a strong team. Tampa Bay has money, and will spend it in the right situation. Right now they farm system isn't ready so there is no reason to spend money.

There is no reason why Tampa Bay cannot win the Division with the right moves. The Yankees are getting older with the exception of Hughes, Melky, and Cano. Boston is pretty old as well as has fallen off the past few years. It will be intresting to see how Boston's young arms produce after huge changes. Paps was a reliever, and Lester with lymphoma. I think after Tampa Bay produces this new wave you will see them replicate Florida's Fire Sale style. Tampa in 2010? Who knows, i doubt it. But don't count them out.

by Metty5 on Dec 30, 2006 3:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Guesstimate

If I had to guess today... and this will all change when the front office trades Baldelli or Upton in the next 12 months.

Devil Rays in 2010

C - Dioner Navarro
1B - Elijah Dukes
2B - Akinori Iwamura
SS - Reid Brignac
3B - Evan Longoria
LF - Carl Crawford
CF - Rocco Baldelli
RF - Delmon Young
DH - Jonny Gomes
UT - B.J. Upton

SP - Scott Kazmir
SP - James Shields
SP - Jeff Niemann
SP - David Price
SP - Mitch Talbot
CL - Matt Walker

However, there's no way all of these guys are still in Rays uniforms in 2010.

I expect Rocco Baldelli, Jorge Cantu, and a few of the pitchers in the minors to be traded.

If the trades bring back good value, this club could be a great team as soon as 2008.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Dec 30, 2006 4:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No way will Upton ever be a DH. At worse, he will end up a left fielder (too athletic, great arm, Too young). Tampa Bay should just go with all these young kids and see what happens. They never win with these mediocre or less than veterans anyhow. Why not give it a go? It would be a fun experiment.

by butkussayers on Dec 30, 2006 4:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks guys

Love the input.

I don't see Upton as a DH either, but crazier things have happened. I am interested in seeing Iwamura with them at 2b a few years down the road. It seems to make sense they'd keep him for more than utility duty.

I would guess that Baldelli goes for a pitcher.

I am a Red Sox fan, but even I think the Yanks are never going to be out of it. They will just buy a free agent and it doesn't matter if they are getting old.

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Dec 30, 2006 5:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Salaries

Catcher: Dioner Navarro ($3MM?)
First Base: Joel Guzman ($3MM? in arb)
Second Base: Jorge Cantu ($5MM in FA)
Third Base: Evan Longoria ($3MM? in arb)
Shortstop: Reid Brignac ($3MM? in arb)
Left Field: Carl Crawford ($11.5MM with incentives)
Center Field: Rocco Baldelli ($8MM)
Right Field: Delmon Young ($8MM+ in arb)
Designated Hitter: B.J. Upton ($4MM+ in arb)
No. 1 Starter: Scott Kazmir ($8MM+ in arb)
No. 2 Starter: Jeff Niemann ($2MM? in arb)
No. 3 Starter: Jacob McGee ($2MM? in arb)
No. 4 Starter: Wade Davis ($2MM? in arb)
No. 5 Starter: Matt Walker ($cheap)
Closer: Juan Salas ($3MM? in arb)

This is the BA projected Lineup for 2010.

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That's $65MM/yr in salaries for these players alone. Of course, most of those are entirely hypothetical (CC and Baldelli are signed through 2010), but if they develop as hoped, I don't think they're unreasonably high, either.

by BobbyMac on Dec 30, 2006 8:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If Dukes emerges...

as I think he will, then I'd ship Baldelli for more pitching, and put Dukes in the OF.

by beastball on Dec 31, 2006 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Positions aside

This is a team we're all going to look at in 8 years and say "Wow, how did they not go all the way? Kazmir, Young, Dukes, Crawford, Rocco, B.J., and the flock of kids in the wings? I think it'll be sad looking back.

by MontrealMets on Dec 31, 2006 12:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why sad?

None of us know what to expect in the majors, nowadays.

Did anyone, but Tigers fans, expect them to play like they did in 2006? How about the "firesale" Marlins playing like they did?

You can't count any teams, no matter what division they're in. The Rays may not be able to outspend any team in their division, but they've got the talent in the majors and minors to potentially obliterate those teams.

by The Rocc on Dec 31, 2006 8:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

On positions

Barring another unforeseen growth spurt, Upton suddenly learning how to play short, or a case of Steve Sax disease for Brignac, you can peg Brignac at short. Other than that, the team is still figuring it out (can Iwamura or Longoria play 2B? Will Cantu bounce back defensively if healthy? Can Dukes or Guzman learn 1B?), so your own guess is probably as good as anyone's. My guess is that Longoria stays at 3B - he's barely tried 2B, and switching his positions gets him off the fast track in a hurry - and Iwamura takes over at 2B (his skills seem to fit better at 2B in MLB anyway). After that, DH and 1B will be dogfights, and OF will mostly depend on trades.

by Brickhaus on Dec 31, 2006 11:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I could be wrong, Brick

However, I believe that Longoria was a 2B for 2 out of his 3 college years. He only played 3B in his final season for LBSU, from what I recall.

by The Rocc on Dec 31, 2006 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

He was only at LBSU for 2 years (he was at JC his first), and he played 3B while he was at LBSU, except for a while when he filled in at short for 1/3 of a season after Tulo got injured. He played 2B in the Cape Cod League and did well there, and played SS for Team USA. I have no idea at what position he played in JC.

by Brickhaus on Jan 2, 2007 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jonny Gomes

My gut tells me he is Tampa's 1B of the future. TB has already publicly stated Gomes will work out at 1B during spring training, as his shoulder most likely cannot handle full-time RF duty. And I am just not a big believer that Joel Guzman will ever live up to that massive hype that has followed him the last 3 years.

by guru4u on Dec 31, 2006 2:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jonny Hustle

I'm just hoping that he learned his lesson about protein shakes and Mongolian barbaque. from last season. He gained what's believed to be between 30 and 40 pounds last season and I believe overswinging(trying to hit every ball out) in April combined with the weight killed his shoulder.

by The Rocc on Dec 31, 2006 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Guzman

Considering his age and his hype I still am giving him the benefit of the doubt. He was rushed through the minors and might take a year at triple-A to figure it out.

Also switching positions all the time probably took him away from developing his offensive game. If he was 25 I'd probably considering him a lost cause. But at 22 in triple-a he needs more time.

by Team Moneyball on Dec 31, 2006 3:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs