2007 Fantasy Smackdown - Anthony Reyes vs. Matt Garza

reyes is far and away the choice...garza has jumped a lot of levels very quickly, and his numbers, while impressive, each occurred in under 60 IP...hitters haven't had a lot of time to look at him in the leagues he's succeeded in, and I would hesitate to expect a strong fantasy contribution from him, particularly in comparison to Reyes, who will have as good an offense behind him, no DH, and frankly, was plenty dominant at AAA over several more innings.  

Reyes actually only got about 35 more innings than Garza in the bigs, but he maintained a much better WHIP, and he'll have a much longer leash...

Of course I'll say Reyes, but that's for 2007.  Garza would probably be the choice in 2008 and beyond, but Reyes will definitely be in the Cardinals rotation this year and could easily win 13-15 games if he stays healthy.

His 2006 numbers may look worse because of his final start of the year on 3 days rest vs. Milwaukee.  Reyes isn't really the type you should throw out on 3 days rest on the last day of the year and he didn't look good at all.
But Reyes has good control and can get the strikeout.
Probably won't top 200 innings, but I'm hoping for 180-190 or so with a 4.20-4.40 ERA.  Will be 20 times better than Jason Marquis.

Anthony Reyes may be better off in the AL

vs. Chicago(A): 8 INN, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
vs. Detroit: 8 INN, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
vs. Kansas City: 6.2 INN, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K
vs. Cleveland: 5 INN, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K

The AL is full of free swingers and HR hitters.  While Reyes is prone to giving up the long ball, he is better off against the free swingers(watch Game 1 of the World Series) than he is against the pesky hitters of the NL(watch NLCS game 4).
Reyes really only has two good pitches: fastball and change, and when the pesky hitters see enough of those two that is when they rip him. Whereas the free swingers may go after the first fastball they see and then get the changeup the next AB and allow Reyes to work longer into the game.  Although, his curveball got better as the season wore on which is why I think he'll do fine next year.

Also, a lot of Cardinal fans believe Reyes struggled in July and August because Dave Duncan was trying to turn Reyes into a sinker baller when, like I said, he's more of a flyball pitcher using a 4 seamer.

I just drafted both of them in my league, so I like them both...but would give Reyes the slight edge on experience.  Both should have nice careers.  

I watched a couple of Reyes's starts and nearly all of Garza's.  They strike me as fairly similar pitchers...California college righties with a wide repertoire and solid offerings across the board.  I think they're going to be about equal in value this year, but I'd tend to draft Garza because I think his curveball is the best strikeout pitch of the two pitchers and his HR tendencies aren't as scary.  We all saw what a few poorly timed longballs can do from Josh Beckett this year.  Garza doesn't have that downside.  For next year it's fairly close though.

I like Garza alot, but went Reyes. A big factor that helped tip the scale for me was the pitching coaches. Dave Duncan is one of the very best. He's turned alot of guys around.

My opinion of Rick Anderson is much less. I think Santana is pretty much master of his own domain so I don't give Anderson too much credit there. I couldn't imagine Radke needed much help either. But the less established guys? Wow, he let Liriano throw 40-50 sliders a game. Meanwhile Silva, Baker, Lohse and Crain all performed very awfully for extended periods of time. Those guys had too much talent to post ERAs over 6 for extended stretches before being able to make corrections.

I'm sure some Twins fan will disagree. But my opinion is I trust Duncan far more.

is why he couldn't help Jeff Weaver or Jason Marquis  .  Of course, Leo Mazzone couldn't help Marquis either...  but the teams Duncan works for rely on him too much.  

Jason Marquis stopped listening to Duncan in 2006.

Tony LaRussa even made it pretty apparent that they were fed up with Marquis near the end of the season because he always appeared to be pitching without a game plan and that Marquis thought he was a different type of pitcher than he actually was. (TLR said these things in the STL P-D)  TLR said Marquis can't go out there thinking he's a power pitcher when he's only throwing 88-92 MPH.

Marquis was 15-7(one more win than he had in 4 years in ATL) with a 3.71 ERA in 2004 and 13-14 with a 4.13 ERA in 2005 under Duncan.  I'd say Duncan did A LOT better than Mazzone did.

As for Garza having the better outpitch of the two, I'd hold up on that one.  Recently I read a story that rated Reyes as having the best changeup(or maybe it was "one of the best" but I'm pretty sure they said he had the best) in the National League.  It kind of surprised me, but I guess I can see that.