How would you rank these youngsters and why?
by jrbro on Dec 26, 2006 8:16 PM EST
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PrintOk... I love projecting the potential of certain players. I was just wondering how people would rank the following players. comments are much welcome and projections are even more interesting.
Justin Upton
Evan Longoria
Cameron Maybin
Andrew Miller
Kershaw SP LAD
Volstad SP FLA
Any help or opinions would be great. Thanks
JR
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Hm
My rankings
- Miller
- Maybin
- Longoria
- Upton <--not his biggest fan
- Kershaw
- Volstad
Rankings
- Justin Upton
- Andrew Miller
- Cameron Maybin
- Evan Longoria
- Clayton Kershaw
- Chris Volstad
-Miller has already been in the big leagues but will now go back down to get ready for a starting job down the road.
-Maybin has more speed than Longoria and could hit for the same amount of power as he matures.
-Longoria is a pretty solid player but isn't quite a 5 tooler like Maybin or Upton
-Kershaw is pretty damn good
-Volstad is just plain awful, just kidding. He's just not quite as good as the rest.
long term
Justin Upton
Kershaw SP LAD
Cameron Maybin
Evan Longoria
Andrew Miller*
Volstad SP FLA
*Miller's delivery makes me hesitant about his long term success as a starter.
Miller and Maybin...
by BaseballJonze on Dec 26, 2006 11:08 PM EST reply actions
my rankings
Cameron Maybin
Andrew Miller
Evan Longoria
Kershaw SP LAD
Volstad SP FLA
Two things. I rate Andrew Miller over Longoria because right now Miller is still a surer thing. He has pitched in the majors and has retired major league hitters. While Longoria has blazed through the majors he is not there yet. But, with that said, I believe that Longoria and A. Miller's potential are about equal. And then, in my opinion, I still love Volstad and so by putting him last, this doesnt mean he is by any means bad, its just that the list you have there is full of studs. I still see Volstad as at least a #2 pitcher, if not #1 eventually.
My rankings
2-Upton
3-Maybin
4-Miller
5-Kershaw
6-Volstad
Longoria has a short pro track record, but Upton's and Maybin's arent much longer. Longoria may not have quite the upside of the other 2, but it's still substantial and he seems polished whereas the other 2 have a ways to go. It would seem at this point that he has a better chance of reaching his potential that the other 2. Longoria basically played half a season, so if you project his 2006 numbers over an entire season, you get 36 HR, 116 RBI.
tough
- Justin Upton
- Cameron Maybin
- Clayton Kershaw
- Andrew Miller
- Evan Longoria
- Chris Volstad (doesn't belong in this group)
As for the Upton vs Maybin argument, I'm more impressed by Upton's low strikeout rate and don't understand the criticism he's received while Maybin gets so much praise. The difference in the two is completely batting average dependent and I have yet to see a person who believes that Upton is a future .260 hitter.
IsoP: Upton .150, Maybin .153
IsoD: Upton .080, Maybin .083
Clearly, they were very equal players with the lone exception of batting average. Upton had a better contact ratio, but lower average... something that isn't likely to continue. Maybin had more success on the basepaths and a ridiculous BABIP, something that also isn't likely to continue.
The one player I'm completely baffled with is Andrew Miller. One part of me believes he will be a Brandon Webb type pitcher in the majors and it won't take him a long time to get there. One other part of me looks at Miller and doesn't see how he's going to become a frontline starter at the major league level without a plus changeup or curveball. Either way, he already has the stuff to become a good #3 and if that's your low-end ceiling then you're clearly a top prospect.
Kershaw is one of those Kazmir/Hamels/Bailey/Hughes type high school arms that is clearly on his way to being a major league starter, but the question for me is whether or not he has the stuff to be a future ace. I'd take a few minor league arms ahead of his, but the advanced pitching skills that scouts rave about are what really stand out to me.
Longoria is less of a mystery now than he was when he was drafted, but even as a Rays fan I have doubts as to his true ceiling. In no way do I believe he's a future 40HR hitter based on his minor league stats. What I believe is that he was an advanced college hitter (as scouts said at the draft) who wasn't meant to have any trouble breezing through the low minors. His AA stats will tell the story and I think he can post a .300/25HR season in AA. I also think that's around his ceiling in the majors, though I wouldn't be surprised to see him become a 30HR guy due to his great bat speed. Even with those type of numbers, he's bound to become lost in the pile of outstanding 3B's in the majors. 3B is now an offensive powerhouse position and .300/25HR will just get you to the second tier.
Volstad is clearly a level below these elite prospects IMO. I wouldn't even place him in my top 50 prospects, while all of the above guys are top 25.
Volstad doesnt belong...
in baseball america's league top 20's here is what they said about Volstad (im paraphrasing here)
He has commad of 3 pitches at age 19 which is very rare, hes 6'7" which is good has a good downhill plane with his low 90's sinker, and can throw his curve... he gets a ton of grounders. The knock is that he cant (or hasnt) strukc enough guys out.. but his command and ability to induce grounders will get him to the majors quickly.
He was the # 6 prospect in the SAL league behind Carlos Carrasco of the phillies.
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