2007 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects

I've looked at the MLB draft tracker video of Ottavino. His release point is totally 3/4. Is there a successful starting pitcher in the league with a release point like that. Seems to me it'd be hard to  get LHB out 3 times with that look unless your command was pinpoint. What do others think? Is he bound for the pen?

http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/events/draft/y2006/tracker/search.jsp

so I enjoy reading what you hav to say on them.  I do think you had some major exclusions though: Narveson, Pomeranz, Lambert, and Boggs.  Especially Narveson who could probably be some team's No.5 starter this year.  The going price for those is $8mil/year these days.  Southard and Scherer don't even deserve to be on a top 40 Cardinal list.

Why is everyone down on Blake Hawksworth?  Is it his huge injury history that includes bone spurs in his ankle and 1 arm injury that was caused by bench pressing?  I've heard of a lot worse.
From what I've heard, he was hitting 95 MPH this summer to go along with his good numbers.

And whats with Blake King throwing hard?  The lone report I've heard is he throws upper 80s mostly.

As for Adam Ottavino, I think he's got #2-3 starter written all over him.  Good fastball, good slider and the curve he threw in the video looked pretty good.  He's got the lanky build that scouts love and has pretty good mechanics.
No reason to think he's destined for the pen right now.
Aaron Heilman is in the pen because he has 2 good pitches.  Ottavino has 2 good pitches at age 21 and his curveball has the makings of becoming a good third pitch.  And a changeup isn't extremely hard to learn.

John, it's obvious you leaned heavily on stats to make this list.  Matt Scherer proves that point.

To tell everyone the truth, I'm sick of all the experts saying the Cardinals system is thin.  It's not anymore.  The last two drafts have placed 6 first round picks and 5 second round picks plus great late round picks like Jaime Garcia, Jon Edwards and Tommy Pham in the Cardinals system.  

Although, I really shouldn't care about what the experts say. Take a look back, the "worst system in baseball" produced Chris Duncan, Anthony Reyes, Dan Haren, Tyler Johnson, Yadier Molina, Brad Thompson, Josh Kinney and Adam Wainwright(while he was drafted as a Brave, he was in the Cards system when it was ranked as the worst).

Isn't it time the experts came to their senses and started predicting in favor of the Cardinals?(that's to everyone at ESPN.com, namely Keith "I'm an idiot" Law)

Just going by the video...

Good fastball: Has movement to go along with 91-92 MPH velocity(most reports have his fastball at 92-94 MPH).
While his command may have been lacking, what I saw was a pitcher trying to nail that outside corner.  You miss in your favor, not the batter's.

Good slider: Nice sharp break.  The one on the video was a little wild, but start that pitch a little earlier and that's a good slider.

Curve that looked pretty good:  75 MPH, was a strike, had break.  Good enough for me for a 3rd pitch.  Apparently, it is a good pitch, but needs consistency.

Good mechanics: Doesn't have any glaring problems.  Doesn't throw across his body, definitely doesn't land on a stiff leg, uses legs pretty well.  He seems to have slowed his body a bit on the curveball, but it's not too noticeable.

Of course, this is a small sample size, but it's just like going to a showcase at a college.
I hope MLB.com goes back to having longer versions of tape on the players next year.

I'm a huge fan of Jon Jay.  I saw him play when he was with the Hurricanes quite a bit.

He swings for the gaps now and kind of has that Craig Counsell slap swing(although not quite as slappy), but I could see a little power coming out of him with those huge legs.

Seems to be the perfect fit for the #2 hole if he puts it all together.

I like his pre pitch over the head and down swinging of his bat.  Very unusual.  I'm sure it has something to do with timing like Eric Davis' leg kick.

I would like to make a case for Hawk being bumped up to at least a B-, if not a B.  He was a very good prospect before all of the injury problems and finally threw an entire season this year.  By the end of the year, his velocity was much closer to where it was before injury.  

I'd like to make a case for Josh Kinney too, who hasn't reached 50 innings, but showed last year that he could at the very least be a good middle reliever, if not a good setup man.  

I recently reviewed all the draft picks for rounds 1-4 in the Diaries.  I have to say that considering they were drafting dead last, the Cards came up with solid picks in each round.  I did a little peeking at some of the later rounds and the run went all the way down to round 6.  

What do folks think of Eddie Degerman?  I know he was a college senior and his delivery freaks a lot of people out.  I like the delivery.  I mean, if it's good enough for Iron Mike, why not a human?  It gives him great downward force on his pitches.  Degerman was  a guy I was hoping the Giants would take a bit earlier in the draft.   IMO, the Giants did OK in the draft with what they got, but I still am a Degerman fan.

John Jay looks like an inspired pick too.

I enjoyed the amusing idea of Tyler Greene as a fast Rob Deer playing SS.  Darryl Jones as a potential Ray Lankford also makes sense.  

The Cardinals had strong drafts in 05 and 06, not only extra picks, but smarter picking.  The Cards have a lot more credible possibilities in the 20-50 range than a couple of years ago.  A few constructive suggestions follow.  

Hawksworth was delayed by injuries. He returned to health in 06 and pitched well at AA. He is the most advanced pitcher in the system and underestimated.

Stavinoha skipped over the high A level, yet maintained ok numbers in the Texas League.  He came late to pro ball owing to football.  His physique suggests he can generate the power shown during his 05 debut.

Four nominees for inclusion in a Top 20: 1) Josh Kinney, an undrafted player who helped lift the Cards to a World Series win; good to see a long-shot beat the odds. 2) Mitch Boggs pitched well in the FSL, though did not start in college; has a good arm and sinker. 3) Stu Pomeranz is a young guy with 1+ year at AA; he could advance in 07. 4) Chris Lambert did not pitch in high school and has quality pitches. (To make room, 4 candidates for exclusion: Worrell, Scherer, Southard, and Furnish.)    

can anyone, John ?, tell me what players he would compare to in ability should he reach his potential ?

..another Mike Cameron comparison.

I think everyone can say that Rasmus is the clear cut No. 1 prospect in the Cardinals system.  But Jon Jay and Jon Edwards (only 18) really have me watching.  A lot of experts are saying the Cardinals are thin as Cardinals31 said, with some prospects shining that were under the radar in the minors and with this list, i could see the same thing happening for years to come.
A couple of questions.......Where would Ian Church project at on this list?  I know that he's 25 and has been playing in Indy ball, but 31 HR/78 RBI and .317 isnt a bad year by any means.  
Also, what is the story with SS Joe Mather?  His size (6'5" 210 lbs) along with his numbers (16 HR/74 RBI/.269) make him somewhat intriguing.  Will there be a position move for him??
Blake Hawksworth is better than a C+ prospect IMO.  His strikeouts are down, but he still remains a solid prospect in the organization.

Hawksworth strikeout numbers got much better from High A to his first taste of AA.

High A: 5.92 K/9
AA: 7.46 K/9

Probably because his velocity was coming back as the season wore on.

As for Eddie Degerman, I loved the pick.  He'll probably start at Palm Beach this year and he could possibly make it as a reliever with his 89-92 MPH fastball - sharp curveball combo and deceptive mechanics.  If works on his change enough and can stay healthy, he could possibly be a solid starter.

I think Stavinoha will get his power back. he's a big guy, and he was dealing with a bad hammy much of the year.

April-July:5 HR in 292 at bats.

August: 7 HR in 112 at bats.

He did tank in the AFL, however. .218/.287/.308 in 78 at bats.

I haven't seen too many so high on Jay, but he numbers are there. He demonstrated great contact skills and a decent batter's eye. 21 years old, 200 lbs I expect his power to improve some.

What John defines as the difference between a C+ and B-, so I'm not going to make a real strong case for any changes.  Just a few comments...

I saw the Quad Cities last year for a three game set and game away with strong beliefs in John Jay, Brian Anderson and Chris Perez.  I saw Lidge the night before seeing Perez and thought that Perez' slider rivals Lidge's  He's medium shot in my book to make Memphis by year's end, I think he's that good.  

John Jay is underrated.  My only concern is power enough to justify a corner outfield spot.  He's fairly quick, moves well in the outfield, and showed discipline in the games I was at.  A 1.148 OPS with runners in scoring position is sweet.  

Bryan Anderson has pop, has smooth swing, and hit the gaps really, really well.  For a catcher, he ran the bases well.  His .396 OBP I think is impressive.  .792 OPS, only three dingers but twenty plus doubles.  

Erik and I discussed some of this over at vivaelbirdos, but I think the Cards system has more players at significant make it or break it cross roads than any other team.  

The three big make or break years that come to mind are for Tyler Greene, Chris Lambert and Mark McCormick.

Greene and McCormick are 23 and will probably start at High A Palm Beach while Lambert will be 24 and at AAA probably.
Greene played very poorly at High A last year and McCormick suffered injuries that prevented him from getting more time in High A.  Lambert just needs to start getting hitters out without allowing 5 runs a game.  His K rate was pretty good which was expected because he has good stuff.  Now he just needs command and he'll be fine.
The good news with McCormick and Lambert is that they have such good pitches that they could become future set-up men, maybe closers(which is why we need Ottavino to stay a starter).

As for Jon Jay not having the power to be a corner outfielder, I think it doesn't matter if the centerfielder, Colby Rasmus, hits 25-30 HRs which is apparently what his potential power is.
It's been this way in STL since 2000.  Jim Edmonds has provided 30-40 HRs nearly every year he's been healthy which has lessen the need for a power hitting left or right fielder.

BTW, I'd love to see Tyler Greene get hot in 2007 and get to AA and do well.  It would be nice to have a really good shortstop in the system(I'm not too high on Brendan Ryan)

I fully expected Trey Hearne to be on the list... I guess the new draft class always blocks people out... but Hearne at least has to be on the radar, doesn't he?

Walters wasnt anywhere on your list,I know he didnt pitch much last year at SC but he was on a very strict pitch & inning count after all the innings he pitched in college for the last 3 years. his 3 year college carreer cant be overlooked. I think he will have a very successful full season..