2007 Milwaukee Brewers Prospects

by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2006 1:36 AM EST in News Comment 29 comments

Yovani Gallardo, RHP, Grade A (one of the best young pitchers in the game)
Ryan Braun, 3B, Grade A- (only question is how patient they will be with his glove)
Will Inman, RHP, Grade B (the numbers are outstanding but durability is a concern)
Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, B (the fastball is outstanding but control is a major concern. Grade A arm, Grade C- command leads to Grade B)
Lorenzo Cain, OF, B- (developing tools player to watch)
Cole Gillespie, OF, B- (big bat from '06 draft but I want to see him above the Pioneer League)
Dennis Sarfate, RHP, C+ (nice arm should fit better in the bullpen)
Manny Parra, LHP, C+ (can he stay healthy? Should be good if he does)
Mark Rogers, RHP, C+ (like Jeffress, a Grade A arm with Grade C- command and now a shoulder concern)
Mat Gamel, 3B, C+ (promising bat but I don't like his home/road split)
Hernan Irrabarren, 2B, C+ (will hit for average)
Steve Hammond, LHP, C+ (underrated arm to watch)
Angel Salome, C, C+ (good numbers, strong arm, but advanced A will challenge his bat)
Robert Hinton, RHP, C+ (relief sleeper)
Tim Dillard, RHP, C+ (could be a good swingman)
Mike Brantley, OF, C+ (leadoff prospect with speed and walks)
Brent Brewer, SS, C+ (good tools, but skills?)
Zach Jackson, LHP, C (I really don't like the collapsing K/IP ratio)
Vinny Rottino, UT, C (solid utility player)
Chris Errecart, OF, C (want to see him against better competition)

Others of Note: Drew Anderson, OF; Andy Boucie, C; Steve Bray, RHP; Stephen Chapman, OF; Alcides Escobar, SS; Charlie Fermaint, OF; Steve Garrison, LHP; Anthony Gwynn, OF; Kevin Roberts, RHP; R.J. Seidel, RHP.

The Brewers In One Sentence: Graduation to the majors has thinned this system out rapidly, but there are still two impact talents on the way, along with some intriguing arms who need to stay healthy.

The C+ guys are interchangeable depending on what you like to emphasize.

ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.

There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.

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Good choice ...

with the Laverne & Shirley pic. A photo of The Big Ragu probably would have been too esocteric.

by StickRat on Dec 22, 2006 3:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

squiggy

Squiggy might have been a better choice since the actor (David Landers) eventually became a baseball scout. I think he was last with the Mariners.

by bolton on Dec 22, 2006 4:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

Gallardo had as good a year as Matt Garza was last year, except he's got sketchier stuff and wasn't ready to pitch in the majors his second pro season. I really don't get this one at all.

by limozeen on Dec 22, 2006 6:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yes yes

I should probably mention that I know it's not a fair straight-up comparison because of the age and nature of advancement in college vs. HS draftees.

This is more of a rant against Garza's A- than Gallardo's A, because I believe both pitchers are straight As and deserving of top three or top four spots along with Bailey and Hughes.

by limozeen on Dec 22, 2006 6:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree about Garza.

I think Garza is a top-3 pitching prospect, right there with Bailey.

by BobbyMac on Dec 22, 2006 8:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

Hughes
Garza
Bailey
Gallardo

Though all are gems. I think Bailey is the only pitcher on the list that has significant bust potential, which is why I move him down a bit. The other three are four-pitch guys with MLB-ready control...they will be at least MLB #3s.

by limozeen on Dec 22, 2006 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree garza should be A

I dont know why it was changed.... (i think it was changed)..... Garza was the best pitcher in the minors last year when u consider the different levels, and the consistent domination (heck even liriano got killed in his sept. callup in 2005).

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Dec 22, 2006 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sketchier stuff?

For some reason, there has been a myth about Gallardo's stuff being a tier below the top prospects in the game.

It seems unreasonable to me. Garza probably has 1mph-2mph more velocity on his typical fastball in comparison to Gallardo, but Gallardo's ability to command four good pitches is as good as any pitching prospect in baseball right now. And his advanced knowledge/aproach at such a young age is unparalleled in baseball right now in my opinion.

by FI on Dec 22, 2006 9:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I don't get it either...

I think they both have good/great stuff. There seems to be a little debate about whether the pitchers have 3 or 4 average to plus pitches, but they all agree that they both have a full repretroire of pitches and command of those pitches.

Just looking at a handful of BA writeups, it appears that both pitchers work in the low-90s but can dial it up to the high-90s if they need to.

For me (cause I had both of them this season and chose to trade Garza), I liked Gallardo just a hair better because its reasonable to think that as Gallardo finishes growing that he could gain on his fastball, which would elevate him into the elite.

Garza is very very good, but so is Gallardo. I think they are close to even now, and because Gallardo has more room to grow than Garza, I felt the nod should go to Gallardo.

Here are the fastball clips...

From the 2005 top 10 writeup: "Gallardo pounds the strike zone with an 89-93 mph fastball that touches 96 with boring action and life down in the zone."

From the FSL top 20: "Gallardo's stuff is special enough. He throws a 92-93 mph fastball that peaks at 95 with armside run and sink"

From the SOU top 20: "Gallardo has a repertoire similar to Bailey's. His fastball is a tick slower, but Gallardo still pounds the zone at 91-94 mph. He has the ability to reach back for more with his four-seamer, topping out at 96 when he needs it."

Compare that to Garza...

from the 2006 top ten: "While his heater usually sits at 90-94 mph, Garza showed the ability to dial it up to 97-98 at times in 2006, including late in games."

from the 2005 top ten: "Garza showed a full mix of pitches in his debut, including a 90-94 mph fastball that touches 96,"

from the Eastern top 20: "His fastball sits near 93 mph and he can dial it up to 97."

by beastball on Dec 22, 2006 12:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gallardo

From what I have seen, he is a very similar prospect to Garza in terms of stuff. He has great control of a FB, CRV, SLD, CHG, but from what I've seen, Garza owns the better FB and CRV. I'd say Gallardo's curve is the second-best breaking ball of the two behind Garza's curve, and both have equally solid sliders and developing changes...I wouldn't call that a win either way.

Some say Gallardo's stuff gives him a #2 ceiling, but I don't see that. I think his curve is a good enough out pitch to dominate the MLB level if he can control it.

All I meant by sketchier stuff is that Gallardo throws the same four pitches, but Garza's FB and CRV (the best two pitches of both pitchers) are one or two ticks better.

by limozeen on Dec 22, 2006 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Inman

I've been following him closely this past season and all the concerns I have heard about with him refer to his repertoire of pitches and how he tops out in the low 90s.

What are the concerns with his durablitiy?? Thanks, guys.

by odo31 on Dec 22, 2006 9:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Injury

He had a shoulder strain in May

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Dec 22, 2006 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That said,

I had expected a B+, Inman was Dominant and the Brewers are being cautious with him.

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Dec 22, 2006 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2001 1st Round Pick - 12th Overall . .

Brewers select Mike Jones, RHP, Thunderbird HS in Phoenix, AZ.

What became of this prospect?

by gunkdog on Dec 22, 2006 9:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Injuries

Jones has had major arm injuries the last few years, including a couple of surgeries. This has completely killed his stock as a prospect. There are a lot of people in the Brewers system that are wondering if he'll ever make it to the Show.

Sadly, it looks as if Mark Rogers is heading down the same path as former Brewers super-prospects J.M. Gold, Nick Neugebauer, and Mike Jones. I really hope not, but it sounds as if Rogers is going to miss most, if not all, of 2007.

Do you think the Brewers regret taking a chance on Rogers and not taking the safer and, with hindsight being 20/20, the better pick in Homer Bailey??? Many people questioned that move on draft day and it looks as if they were right to do so.

"Rule #76. No excuses, play like a champion!"

by andy 5 on Dec 22, 2006 9:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

shadow of his former self

I saw him pitch last year in the FSL - just isn't the same guy he was. Labrum surgery is a bitch - I've had 2 of them now on my shoulder and I know the struggles of trying to resume a throwing sport. Your shoulder just never quite feels the same way again.

by UCFKnights on Dec 22, 2006 10:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jeffress

After 25 walks, 13 wild pitches and six hit batters in 34 innings has anyone changed their mind a little on Jeffress? No command/control and no true secondary pitches is a little damning. Don't overreact to my post, I'm not saying changed your mind to the point you don't like him... but are you a little less enthusiastic and would have taken a handful pitchers drafted behind him ahead of him now? There were alot of premium talents available at 16.

by im not new on Dec 22, 2006 10:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

cole gillespie

this guy seems to be a nice hitter. john wants to see him develope more against better pitching. but he seems to have average to better tools, whats the deal? real prospect or not? high end does he hit .280/.350 with 25 hr?

by Colavitorockys on Dec 22, 2006 10:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Angel Salome

Salome only a C+?

He's probably a top 5 catching prospect in the minors right now and clearly a better prospect than some of the guys who have gotten B- grades on a lot of these lists.

He doesn't strike out much and has good power, great considering his small stature. He also gunned down 41% of baserunners last season.

Unless you are bumping him down for size (don't hate on the short guys!), I think he deserves a little more credit as a legit catching prospect with both bat and defense.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Dec 22, 2006 10:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreement here

If there's one grade on the list that shocked me it's this one.

by beerambassador on Dec 22, 2006 11:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

I don't have Salome in my top 5 catchers, he just outside of it, but I do think he is a B- type prospect. I'd like to see his walk rate improve a bit, but doesn't strike out a ton and he's solid defensively. There are alot of teams who could use a catching prospect like him.

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Dec 22, 2006 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Salome

I'm really curious what the thinking is with Salome. He sure looks like a keeper to me.

by BobbyMac on Dec 23, 2006 4:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chuck Fermaint

Being a huge fan of John's, I'm a little embarrassed to say this, but I think he severely discredited this farm system.

Starting with Fermaint, not even being mentioned in the Top 20, is puzzling to me. I know he has never been a Fermaint guy so to speak, but a 20-year old in A+, with 27 SB's and a respectable .276 average, screams at least a C+/B- to me. Yes, his 119 K's definitely need to be reduced, but coupled with his defensive prowess, most prognosticators have Fermaint in the Brewers Top 10 prospects.

Salome, as stated above, is definitely a B- prospect at best. Negatives are height (although LoDuca seems to be OK with his vertical challenge), and strikeout totals, but even 67 isn't that high. Maybe it's because the Brewers haven't had a decent C prospect in some time, not sure - but I'm high on Angel.

Not sure if John would count Yohannis Perez as a prospect just yet, but he should, and was one of the more highly sought after Cuban defectors this summer.

I think this system is still Top 10, I'm guessing John would rank it in the middle teens...

by mjwelch11 on Dec 22, 2006 2:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Inman, Salome, and Fermaint

I would bump Inman up to B+ and Salome up to B- for reasons already mentioned. And Fermaint should be a C+. He had a fine season last year and will be a 21 year old in AA. He has alot of upside. He's not to far off from Cain.

by jwaltz on Dec 22, 2006 6:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I would also bump Zack Jackson up. I know he struggled a bit last year when he was called up, but he has decent stuff and good be a #4 or #5 starter someday.

by dusters84 on Dec 22, 2006 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus!

He'll go down in history (in my head anyway) as a great almost-trivia answer: What pitcher almost hit a home run on the first Major League pitch he ever saw?

by battlekow on Dec 22, 2006 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Salome &c

I don't see how Salome is "interchangeable" with Robert Hinton or Hernan Iribarren or only a notch above Andy Bouchie; I think that's fairly drastically underrating his combination of offensive and defensive tools. FWIW, he appears to be very good at controlling the running game.

Inman I can almost understand, given the Brewers' sordid recent history with high school arms and shoulder injuries, but in truthiness, I think he deserves a B+.

Where's Rolando Pascual? If RJ Seidel gets a C based on potential alone and Jeremy Jeffress gets a B based on pretty much the same, surely Pascual deserves at least a mention.

by battlekow on Dec 22, 2006 10:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Cain & Gamel

I'm not gonna sit here and say I'm smarter than Mr. Sickels, but I really like Cain & Gamel and would have considered both a touch higher.

Jeremiah 29:11

by BowmanChromeAddict on Dec 23, 2006 2:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Two quick notes

Salome: I haven't seen his '06 numbers yet, but he's historically allowed huge numbers of passed balls - it's a major concern for him going forward.

Also, I was surprised to not see SS/2B Michael Bell on the list. He's a solid defender with a promising bat (.277/.346/.458 as a 21 year old for West Virginia, very good juco hitter).

by DerKomminskSar on Dec 24, 2006 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs