2007 New York Mets Prospects

by John Sickels on Dec 20, 2006 6:22 PM EST in News Comment 101 comments

Fernando Martinez, OF, A- (tools and youth, just needs refinement)
Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Grade A- (I think the breaking pitch problem is overblown. He had a good one in college and I think he'll find it again. I am sticking with my guns on this one)
Phil Humber, RHP, B+ (Many prefer him over Pelfrey, I like both)
Carlos Gomez, OF, B (great tools, but I'm not sure about his power)
Jon Niese, LHP, B- (projectable lefty is a personal favorite)
Deolis Guerra, RHP, B- (live arm, a long way away)
Kevin Mulvey, RHP, B- (accidently left off first list)
Joe Smith, RHP, B- (impressive reliever could advance fast)
Mike Carp, 1B, B- (developing power bat to watch)
Alay Soler, RHP, C+ (Cuban defector looks better as a reliever to me than a starter)
Adam Bostick, LHP, C+ (acquired from the Marlins, good breaking ball)
Josh Stinson, RHP, C+ (interesting arm but another guy who will need time)
Sean Henry, OF, C+ (toolsy, skills may be developing)
Mike Devany, RHP, C (looks like a utility pitcher to me)
Nick Evans, 3B, C (making slow progress)
Shawn Bowman, 3B, C (back injuries two years in a row)
Michel Abreu, 1B, C (good stats, but how old is he? 26? 31? 52?)
Stephen Holmes, RHP, C (intriguing arm from '06 draft)
Tobi Stoner, RHP, C (control artist dominated New York-Penn League)
Brandon Nall, RHP, C (good numbers but old for the level)
Dustin Martin, OF, C (hit .315 in the NY-P but strikes out a lot)

Others of Note: Corey Coles, OF; Ambiorix Concepcion, OF; Jose Coronado, SS: Emmanuel Garcia, SS; Brett Harper, 1B; Anderson Hernandez, INF; Mike Nickeas, C; Robert Parnell, RHP; Todd Prviett, LHP; Dan Stegall, OF.

The Mets In One Sentence: This system has quality at the top, but the talent level bottoms out very fast.

For some reason, Mets fans tend to get very defensive about their farm system, likely a form of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder from trades over the last few years. Face it guys: this system has three strong prospects at the top, four or five more who are interesting but have question marks, then a whole bunch of guys who are only marginal right now. This isn't an insult; there are lots of systems like this around, and the Mets are not the worst. I just don't understand why people get so upset about it. The Mets have problems, sure, but at least you are not rooting for the Minions of Evil like Yankees fans.

ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.

There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.

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Comments

good God...

... but is Mr. Met a scary, deeply disturbing thing.

Harper isn't a "prospect," but as a "too old for the league but can still really hit" type in the grand tradition of Graham Koonce and his ilk, he should probably rank above at least some of these schmendricks.

and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Dec 20, 2006 6:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

mr. met

never mind mr. met - i'm still creeped out by that phillies logo from two days ago.

by wily mo on Dec 21, 2006 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ha

yeah never saw that one before

by robcast23 on Dec 21, 2006 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, hey...

...nothing negative about Mr. Met. Even when the Mets are terrible, we Mets fan can always take solace in the fact that we've got such a high-profile, successful mascot =).

Honestly, as goofy as Mr. Met really is, every Mets fan I know just loves him, and is very protective of him. Our love for Mr. Met is kind of disturbing, actually.

by nyr2k2 on Dec 21, 2006 10:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

mr met

mr met is BY FAR the best mascot in baseball. and all of sports. period.

by robcast23 on Dec 22, 2006 1:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hahahahaha

by PooNani on Dec 22, 2006 9:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Joe Smith

Actually saw him pitch- 3 times- on TV
One pitch, it's a sick pitch, but it's still just one pitch- but could make it as a roogie even if he fails to develop

by Johnny Ruin on Dec 20, 2006 6:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

what pitch?

fb? curve?

by robcast23 on Dec 21, 2006 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure

I'm not sure, he has both a good sinker and a biting slider. Both plus pitches for him, but neither one is that amazing.

by nyr2k2 on Dec 21, 2006 10:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not sure either

I saw him three times, all three times he only threw what looked like the same pitch - which looked to be a cross between a slider and a sinker- It look dto be pretty much unhittable if you were a right handed batter.

it could be that his slider and sinker look indishtinguishable on TV....

by Johnny Ruin on Dec 22, 2006 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Finally!

Great job, Dr. Sickels!

Personally, I'm defensive about the Mets system because I fear the temptation to raid the farm is too great. Our history with respects to that is extremely poor. History forms us, and having Steve Phillips reign over the farm for many years would lead to that effect in any organization's fans.

I agree that the farm is top heavy, but the nice thing is that Carp, Guerra, and Niese have time to grow. Meanwhile, the Big 4 are exciting, no?

I'm happy with the farm in its current state, but I do hope that the organization can continue coming up with its Pelfreys and Gomezes.

by Raskolnikov on Dec 20, 2006 6:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Guerra

Can a projectable 18yo who isn't hitting 90mph yet really be considered a "live arm?"

I'd be surprised if he doesn't add velocity in the next year or two, but he lived off the changeup all last year.

by jhelfgott on Dec 20, 2006 6:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

An 18 year old

living off a change-up... ya gotta love that. Many a pitcher have failed due to not being able to develop one. I also heard that Guerra hits low 90's, I think he's gonna be a very good pitcher.

by slurve on Dec 20, 2006 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm excited about Guerra too

He seems to be difficult to hit. Maybe Guerra doesn't light up the radar guns yet, but he was still darn impressive. I can't recall another successful 17 yo pitcher - his success seems unprecedented.

Guerra and Fernando are two absolute gems.

by Raskolnikov on Dec 20, 2006 8:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Success

Yeah, he had a good statistical season, but he's doing it more in a Yusmeiro Petit/Tyler Clippard mode rather than as a pitcher with surefire major league stuff.

I'm not saying he won't get there, but it seems weird to classify a pitcher with Guerra's repertoire as a "live arm."

by jhelfgott on Dec 21, 2006 1:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

Guerra was always about projection. I think the fact that he was able to have the success he did before adding velocity or improving his breaking ball makes it all the more impressive. He's still expected to do those things.

The phrase "live arm" is so ambiguous that I consider it almost devoid of meaning.

by jeck on Dec 21, 2006 1:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Clippard mode

For a 17 y.o. in full season ball... I'll take it. He's getting guys out now - the K's will come.

by slurve on Dec 21, 2006 7:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah come on

the kid is 6'5" and only 200lbs...and hes already hitting 91-92, think about whats going to happen when he fills out

by robcast23 on Dec 21, 2006 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

...having "life" on the fastball is...

...usually meant to describe it as having movement while in flight...there's a whole variety of different kinds of movement depending on a variety of things (i.e. arm angle, wind-up slot, lefty or righty delivery, slight alterations in grip, etc, etc...)...

...the thing that really makes the ball move is not the actual velocity, but rather the rotations/second it spins...though since velocity and rotations/second usually go hand-in-hand (no pun intended!) since being delivered by the same arm...but it is possible to have a guy with a live fastball at 90 mph but not so common...for instance, in theory, soft throwing pitchers with long fingers could in theory get that going...

...overall, terms like "live arm" or a fastball with "life" have been so abused that it does lose meaning among baseball fans...but, among scouts and players, it still means a pretty specific thing...

by basemonkey on Dec 24, 2006 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Guerra

I don't trust but a few of the scouting reports I've seen on Guerra. Why? I live in DC, so Hagerstown isn't that far, and last season I saw about 10-11 of Guerra's starts. When I saw him, his fastball consistently sat at 87-89, and he often hit 91, and on overthrows he hit 92. As a 17yo, that to me certainly qualifies as a live arm. The fact that he has to rely on his offspeed pitches at this point is a plus, in my book, because he is actually learning the art of pitching, rather than just trying to throw gas by people.

I'm a Mets fan, and I'm extremely critical of the Mets system. Guerra is an extremely projectable prospect with tons of upside, and one not to be taken lightly.

by nyr2k2 on Dec 21, 2006 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The problem

with his relying on his changeup is that it makes it a bit tougher to read his stats - yes, his changeup is very good, but he was also playing single A. I know he's younger, but still, most single A guys aren't going to be hitting a changeup thats even halfway decent, let alone great. You really have to see how he does at a higher level with hitters that are a bit more developed before you can be sure. Also, you'd think he'd be striking out a lot of those single A guys who can't hit the change, but his K/9 wasn't that great, if I recall. I certainly think he could reach the mid 90's on his fastball though, and once he fills out, I hope he's nasty.

When asked why I was a Mets fan, I responded, "pain is my lifeblood."

by wrightHOF on Dec 21, 2006 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mid-90s?

That would be exciting. If you can combine a mid 90s fastball with a ++ change, that's a young ace in the making.

by Raskolnikov on Dec 21, 2006 7:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd actually....

MUCH rather have a young pitcher throw a fastball.

Many of the most durable, long lasting pitchers of all time (even with a mediocre fastball) talk about constantly throwing fastballs during their childhood and times in the minors. Nolan Ryan and Curt Schilling are a couple guys who have credited throwing alot more fastballs than offspeed pitches at a young age has helped their longevity. Billy Wagner is another guy who just threw constantly with a fastball grip (he used to throw a ball around and run after it as a kid) and never picked up a real breaking pitch til he reached the majors.

I LOVE the fact that his go-to off speed pitch is a changeup though. It's basically a fastball with a different grip. I realize baseball has changed and offspeed pitches are a must have, but the best way to keep an arm healthy and build strength while its still young is to throw ALOT of fastballs. Also throwing alot on the side, again not with alot of breaking pitches and not on a mound is nice.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 21, 2006 9:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice work

I'd have to include Mulvey and Pena, especially considering the latter has a ton of upside. Even though he hasn't played in the US yet, he's still much better than filler like Alay Soler and the midget Dustin Martin.

by alexd on Dec 20, 2006 6:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

agree about Mulvey

I agree that Mulvey should be up there. Probably above Joe Smith and in the neighborhood of Carp.

I'm excited about Pena. Has there ever been so much anticipation about someone who no one has seen play yet? And now the pressure is much higher with us losing Flores. [Bangs head]

by Raskolnikov on Dec 20, 2006 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pena, etc.

It's very exciting, particularly considering that he's not already a 16 year old DH like Mr. Montero. And you obviously have to love the bloodlines, though Pena Jr. isn't particularly inspiring.

And I do get the feeling that the Nats hide Flores on their 25 for the whole season. They're going to be terrible anyway, why not just snag and keep a solid prospect for basically nothing? Manny Acta's first strike as manager...grrr.

by alexd on Dec 20, 2006 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

i'm very excited to see what pena can do this season...yeah i don't love pena jr though he @ least seems solid but i'm hoping the 'younger brother phenomenon' is in play here where the younger always seems to be better:

drews
uptons
weavers
molinas
guerreros (what the hell ever happened to wilton?)
alomars
and i'm sure there are more i can't remember

by robcast23 on Dec 21, 2006 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Brothers

Bretts (Ken and George), Younts (Larry and Robin) and Reuschels (Paul and Rick) fit your hypothesis...

But I think you'd take Jason over Jeremy Giambi; David over Mike Bell; Bret over Aaron Boone; Ken over Clete Boyer; Tom over Mike Glavine; Brian over Marcus Giles; Tony over Chris Gwynn; Cal over Billy Ripken.

I won't weigh in on such notables as the Crespos, Manzanillos, or Iorgs.

Source: BaseballAlmanac.com -- Brothers in Baseball, A-J; Brothers in Baseball, J-Z

by FlipYrWhig on Dec 21, 2006 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Smith

I'd have kept Bradford, but he seems to be a fine alternative. If his slider is that nasty, he'll be a nice playmate for Feliiciano.

BTW, where's Kevin Mulvey? Not enough data -- that sort of thing?

by Emad on Dec 20, 2006 6:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

bradford

loved what he brought last year but a 3yr contract is too rich for my blood and i'm glad the mets agreed

IMO the only relievers who deserve multi-year contracts are shutdown closers (a la b.wags)...obviously the orioles do not agree...

by robcast23 on Dec 21, 2006 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maat

That Australian catcher that the Mets signed a year or two ago - is he playing in the US next year?

by alexd on Dec 20, 2006 6:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oh yeah

I had completely forgotten about him. How did he fall off the radar?

by Raskolnikov on Dec 20, 2006 7:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No idea

He's still just 18, I think. I don't know too much about him, but I do remember them being excited when he signed.

by alexd on Dec 20, 2006 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

name?

whats his name? i hope not justin huber...

by robcast23 on Dec 21, 2006 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maat

Supposedly, he'll be coming over for Spring Training and is considering playing Stateside from here out. Hopefully, he has a power bat.

by nyr2k2 on Dec 21, 2006 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maat

Sweet! That's great news. Now we have two shots at getting a big time C prospect.

I'm excited about Maat. I hope he gets some spring training ABs.

by Raskolnikov on Dec 21, 2006 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Respectable

I'm usually defensive of the system, but the system at least is respectable. Having 4 top tier prospects makes for an at least above average system. While there is no depth yet, there is the possibility of depth if their is continuance of some individuals progress.

Only real admission - Mulvey... he's got to be more of a prospect than some of the other 2006 pitchers the Mets drafted.

by thudean on Dec 20, 2006 7:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

defense

you guys seem a little defensive about john's defensiveness comment.

by wily mo on Dec 20, 2006 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well

thats because john NEVER makes diary posts about baseball-type stuff...only cheesecakes or music, etc...but then about as randomly as possible he makes one just to bash the mets system? meanwhile right across the division the nationals have about as repulsive a farm system as you can have?

not saying he doesn't have the right because its his site but it certainly caught me by surprise and as a big mets prospect supporter i felt a bit slighted

by robcast23 on Dec 21, 2006 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

East Coast

It's an East Coast thing, I swear. There are so many rivalries in a close distance out here, we as fans are constantly dealing with people on the streets shouting things about the jersey or sweater we are wearing, dealing with the *** on talk radio, etc... There's so much competition among sports fans in such a close vicinity out here, that people become conditioned to make a huge deal out of any perceived slight towards their team.

In person, it's fun battling with strangers over your sports teams. On the intarweb, it gets a little old. Amusing nonetheless.

by nyr2k2 on Dec 21, 2006 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

actually thats a pretty good explanation that i most definitely agree with

by robcast23 on Dec 21, 2006 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Outside of the names already mentioned

Jacob Ruckle is someone to keep your eyes on
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/R/Jacob-Ruckle.shtml

by mtk52983 on Dec 20, 2006 7:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re: ruckle

Looks like he has superb control. He'll need to lift that K rate though as he moves up the ladder.

by Raskolnikov on Dec 20, 2006 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that is true

But at age 20 and pitching as well as he did in the Florida State League, the potential is there (granted he is nothing more than a C prospect for now)

by mtk52983 on Dec 20, 2006 8:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re: ruckle

The strange thing was that he went from St. Lucie back to Brooklyn if I recall correctly. Not quite sure why they demoted him since he had performed well in St. Lucie. Oh well.

I'm guessing that he'll start in St. Lucie.

by Raskolnikov on Dec 20, 2006 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re:demotions

For the past few years, the Mets have been sending guys down to Brooklyn late in the season to stack the Cyclones roster for the playoffs.

It's a little disingenuous, but the Wilpons own the Cyclones and they like to see them do well since they're so close, I suppose.

by kid dynamite on Dec 22, 2006 12:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but don't demote the young prospects

I don't mind Wilpon demoting the veteran minor-leaguers to serve as ringers for the Brooklyn team. Might as well make the local team competitive and entertaining.

And I don't mind if the Mets demote young non-prospects. This might be their only chance at minor league glory.

But let's not screw with the legit prospects. Ruckle should be at a level of competition that challenges him, not blowing away rookies getting their first taste of professional ball. It makes it impossible to gauge - both for the organization and for outsiders - how much progress Ruckle has made.

by Raskolnikov on Dec 22, 2006 1:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ruckle's delivery...

...is also pretty wild.

i remember being amazed at how effective he pitched one game i saw with the herky jerk motion he has.

by Dep on Dec 20, 2006 8:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Great Job John

I'm a little surprised Eric Brown and Jacob Ruckle didnt make the list.

by Dep on Dec 20, 2006 7:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Humber

Surprised that Humber is a B+ when Lofgren is an A-.

Mop Up Duty

3 writers & daily updates on a wide range of baseball topics, including prospects.

by TheK on Dec 20, 2006 7:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

Humber > Lofgren.

Dutin Pedroia .... a poor man's Ronny Cedeno - Theo Epstein

by the pinstripes on Dec 20, 2006 9:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

by robcast23 on Dec 21, 2006 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

mulvey

Mulvey is supposed to be on there as a B-. I have fixed the list.

by John Sickels on Dec 20, 2006 7:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Carp

I hate to carp but I think Mike Carp ought to be a solid B. Can already hit for average and has good plate discipline. Power is developing too. 450 SLG at St. Lucie in the FSL is nothing to be ashamed of, especially when you play half the season as a 19 year old!

He's also great at getting HBP...lol.

Anyway, I guess complaining about the difference between B and B- is kind of nitpicking so I'll sign off now.

Keep an eye on him next year though, I expect in the offensively friendly environs of Binghampton, he might challenge for 300/400/500...at least if the adjustment period is not too long.

by BaseballBrain on Dec 20, 2006 9:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I really like Carp

as well. I think Carp and Niese could be special for them in time. Carp's got a nice stroke. If they keep Delgado for 07/08, Carp could be ready to slide in by 09. He'll be what, 23? Heck, if they want to keep Delgado for his 09 option, Carp would only be what, 24? This of course assumes he develops well ... which I think he will. His power will come.

by toonsterwu on Dec 20, 2006 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

carp

does anybody else think mike carp is in actuality a clone of mike jacobs?

both 6'2" 200, both play first, both bat left but throw right, both have that smooth lefty stroke...and their #'s at similar levels, ages, etc. are VERY similar

i like the future for mike carp

by robcast23 on Dec 21, 2006 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe....except

Carp seems to be at least a couple years ahead of Jacobs on the path to success. Jacobs put up horrible #'s at St. Lucie at age 21, while Carp put up good #'s at St. Lucie and didn't turn 20 until the season was more than half over.

by BaseballBrain on Dec 21, 2006 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

this is the glaring difference...and i don't mind one bit, hopefully carp continues this development

by robcast23 on Dec 21, 2006 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

tobi stoner

is it true the mets have considered acquiring jung bong to serve as a mentor to stoner?

by wily mo on Dec 20, 2006 9:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Completely off-topic: spammer

John, I know you're swamped, but a request to ban user Opheliakesal. Looks like he's posted 150 comments in the past few days that I'm assuming are just worthless garbage hyperlinks. (I didn't actually click the links for fear of malware) Or better yet ban the IP if possible.

Thanks, keep up the great work.

P.S. go mets.

"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." -Red Barber

by e 6 on Dec 20, 2006 10:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

banned

The spammer has been banned. Thanks for pointing that out.

by John Sickels on Dec 20, 2006 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How about Matt Durkin?

It appears he needed surgery in 2005 (ulnar nerve transposition?) and spent nearly all of 2006 rehabbing. He was back at the very end of 2006.

I think he's supposed to be healthy in 2007--he could be a sleeper at this point, at least for the "others" list.

Anderson Garcia is another good live arm, though probably only will be a relief pitcher.

18-21 does look very weak to me.

I thought Steven Holmes returned his signing bonus and decided to go to med school or something. I think I got that from a message board somewhere, so I don't know if it's accurate.

And I wonder what the scouting is on Dustin Martin. He was a 26th rounder, and shortly after he signed, before the season started in Brooklyn, they were touting him as one of the guys who would carry the offense there. I suspect he's an organizational guy; a guy without the talent to hit at higher levels but who was polished enough to help out the offense at that level.

by acerimusdux on Dec 20, 2006 11:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Holmes

had a personal tragedy involving a kid he was mentoring. Durkin was simply a bad pick by the Mets horrid control, and Anderson Garcia is with the Orioles now.

by Peter North on Dec 20, 2006 11:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If Milledge qualified...

Where would he rank, and at what grade?

by ISC on Dec 20, 2006 11:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think the A-s are getting easier to get...

as the rankings go on. Not a gigantic Martinez fan, I would have him at B+. I would also have Humber and Pelfrey above him. Just my two cents...

by alskor on Dec 20, 2006 11:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Alas

Grad inflation has even infected Mr. Sickels' site

by avehoward on Dec 20, 2006 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think...

Fernando deserves his A-, as I think he is one of the top OF prospects in the minors.

I know Im higher on him than most, but I really think that he is a special hitter who could be an A next year if he keeps improving.

by grozzy on Dec 21, 2006 2:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OFs who have gotten an A- so far

Hunter Pence
Cameron Maybin
Jay Bruce
Adam Lind
Travis Snyder
Jose Tabata
Billy Butler

Does Martinez really belong with these guys? Not to me... Which one would you take Martinez over? I pick him dead last out of these guys. He fits much better with the B+ guys with upside, if you ask me...

by alskor on Dec 21, 2006 7:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just my

two cents but Ill take FMart over Tabata and Snyder any day

by tbach81 on Dec 21, 2006 8:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My opinion on it...

I think Martinez could rank with those guys, and I'd rather have him than Lind or Snyder. For Lind, I'd rather risk the higher ceilig of F-Mart. For Snyder, Snyder's body type worries me, and I'll always give the nod to a 17 year old who does well in full season vs someone who smokes short season. I think he's a push with Tabata.

by beastball on Dec 21, 2006 8:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would take Martinez over

Lind, Snyder, Pence and Tabata. About even with Bruce.

Again I am higher on FMart than most.

Also remember, Butler was given an A- only due to his defense, he easily has an A bat. Possibly the best bat in the minors.

by grozzy on Dec 21, 2006 9:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

all A- but i'd say

Butler
Bruce

Martinez
Tabata
Maybin

Lind
Snyder

The one guy i guess people would be mad about is Maybin. I'm not as high as everyone on him. Sure maybe he is a top prospect but i wouldn't put him near the top ten after last season. But thats just me.

by Metty5 on Dec 21, 2006 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and Pence?

I'd put him in the middle group.

i don't see F-Mart being given an A- as at all controversial. certainly according to our 'Community Prospect' rankings, he's right with (and above) the guys on that list.

by scooter on Dec 21, 2006 12:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Flores

Afraid to ask - but where would Flores have ranked here in the Mets system, John?

by Raskolnikov on Dec 21, 2006 1:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Stephen Holmes

Holmes should not be on the list. He returned his signing bonus and returned to school. Therefore, he is not in the Mets system, although, my understanding is that he remains under the Mets' control, and they have until a week before next year's draft to sign him. If you include Holmes, you would have to also include Jeremy Barfield, who was drafted in the 9th round and went to JC. Like Holmes, the Mets have until a week before next year's draft to sign Barfield.

by lanceawillis on Dec 21, 2006 12:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rating Martinez over Gomez is criminal

The underrating of Gomez and overrated of Martinez by a lot of people who havent actually seen them play is getting out of hand now

by PooNani on Dec 21, 2006 1:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

also

Guerra: He HAS NOT hit the low 90s (BA's reports from last year are simply incorrect). He's got an excellent changeup, a deceptive motion, and hes very coachable. But he's got no curveball and his fastball is sitting in the mid to high 80s right now. Everything about him is about projection at this point. People projecting him as a #1 need to really relax.

by PooNani on Dec 21, 2006 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ok

so where do you get this inside info from? because i've known BA to be pretty accurate in the past...

by robcast23 on Dec 21, 2006 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Read my above post

Guerra does hit the low 90s. I have seen it, numerous times, with my own eyes. I saw about 60 Hagerstown Suns games this season, including 10 or so Guerra starts. HE ABSOLUTELY DOES HIT THE LOW 90S! I mean I am just an anonymous internet poster, but the truth is the truth.

by nyr2k2 on Dec 21, 2006 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i agree

about gomez

by robcast23 on Dec 21, 2006 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gomez and F-Mart

Not sure if Gomez is a B, but F-Mart definitely rates above him.

F-Mart outhit Gomez at the same level, SAL, only a year apart. Gomez was 19, F-Mart was 17. Both were young, but F-Mart was off the charts young.

by Raskolnikov on Dec 21, 2006 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Martin/Garcia

Dustin Martin is my sleeper prospect in this organization. He Ks once every 5 at bats which isn't bad, John seems a little overly concerned about that. He sprays the ball all over he field, is relatively patient for his level and is simply a polished college hitter.

If there was one Mets prospect that I feel John left off, it would have to Emmanuel Garcia. The kid has great projection on his wiry frame, and performed very well in the Appy league.

by nyr2k2 on Dec 21, 2006 3:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Garcia

Well, I was tracking Garcia last year. I think this is make-or-break for him. He's going to be 21 (?) next year and he still hasn't played a full year in SAL yet. He's going to need to hit for a lot more power to be a legit prospect.

by Raskolnikov on Dec 21, 2006 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is it just me?

or does anyone else really badly want to see abreu come up in the subway series this year and show up his bro?

by revans37 on Dec 21, 2006 11:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Umm...

Michel and Bobby Abreu are not brothers. Abreu is a relatively common last name throughout Latin America.

by nyr2k2 on Dec 21, 2006 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Abreu's D?

How's the glove.

We might as well bring him up, he has nothing left to prove down in the minors.

by Raskolnikov on Dec 22, 2006 1:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mike Devaney

If anyone has a scouting report, I'd appreciate it.

Love the numbers though. Strikes me as the type of player that will keep proving the analysts wrong at each level he advances.

by Raskolnikov on Dec 22, 2006 1:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

re:

Devaney has good focus, to match his control and command. His BB/9 is high, IMO, because he lacks great velocity on his fastball (sits 90-92) His pure stuff certainly isn't the best but he gets the job done.

He has a solid curve, with good tumbling action. He doesn't throw it that hard but it seems to sneak up quickly on guys, as if the spin is deceiving. His fastball-curveball combo works well for him. I'm not sure about any other secondary pitches, though I remember his changeup as being less than impressive.

He reminds be a lot of Brian Bannister at this point.

by nyr2k2 on Dec 22, 2006 10:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

Thanks for the report, nyr2k2.

Low 90s is perfectly fine by me. Devaney will do well.

by Raskolnikov on Dec 22, 2006 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Junior Contreras anyone???

this was a hyped guy who was labled as a sleeper...id thought for sure he would make the list

he is a 1B who many think is good and would name him as one of the best mets prospects no-one has heard about...

though old for the GCL last season at 19-20, he should move up in leagues...

i wonder if John has anything to say about him or his projectability

by matsfan526 on Dec 22, 2006 5:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Contreras

I had quite the long-winded post in a different thread about the Mets system. COntreras is my sleeper prospect. He has a lot of power potential and a fair amount of discipline. The guy is huge, so he has a lot of projectability, so long as his size turns to power and not fat.

by nyr2k2 on Dec 22, 2006 6:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Raul Reyes

I had forgotten about him, but I think he's the sleeper of our pre-SAL batch. Thinking about Contreras reminded me about Reyes.

Sickels didn't put him on the list, but I'm expecting Reyes to make some noise next year.

by Raskolnikov on Dec 23, 2006 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Humber

What will Humber's prime look like and whats the deal with his latest injury related shutdown?

by znyfan on Dec 24, 2006 3:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re:

I think Humber, when developed, will post 14-17 wins per season, with an ERA between 3.40 and 3.80. A solid number 2.

As far as the injury, reports said either tendonitis or a muscle bruise. Per MiLB.com:

"Everything is cool," Humber told MiLB.com. "It's just a little tendinitis, a tired arm, so they decided to send me home. I don't think it's going to be a big deal. They're just making sure nothing bad happens out of season. I wanted to stay and compete, but it's best to be safe so I came home and now I'll get ready for spring."

So, take that for what it's worth. The people I've spoken with in the past month say that Humber hasn't reported any further problems, though he hasn't been throwing. It doesn't sound particularly serious to me, as often times there will be lingering soreness after a post-Tommy John season.

by nyr2k2 on Dec 25, 2006 12:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

...Mets system entering '06..

..was a pretty horrid system...but after '06, it ended up being average to below average...I don't mean that to be a knock against the Mets...afterall, they have graduated a lot of top flight players in recent years so some kind of drop is expected...whenever you lose a Wright and a Reyes, you's system will take a hit...

...that being said, they have some top potential guys at top but don't have any depth whatsoever...given the odds of all of their top prospects reaching their promise, it's living dangerously...then again, like Sickels has said, this system is very similar in makeup to most ML farms today...

by basemonkey on Dec 24, 2006 6:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yup

You make...some good...points...and I think...I agree...with you....

Just giving you a hard time monkey, Happy Holidays.

by nyr2k2 on Dec 25, 2006 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's solid

I think that the current farm state suits the needs of the big club well. The top prospects are AA or higher, so the chances are high that they will contribute significantly. The harder to project ones are young, so they have time to mature.

I would say the two major weaknesses are:

A lack of middle IF prospects
A lack of depth at AAA and AA to serve as trade bait.

The depth is decent enough. The weak '06 hurt us in that department.

by Raskolnikov on Dec 26, 2006 1:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

weak '06 draft

That last sentence should read "weak '06 draft hurt us."

by Raskolnikov on Dec 26, 2006 1:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ehh

I think Mulvey and Smith were solid picks at their slots. Stinson is going to be a steal. Holmes will be solid if he comes back. Tobi Stoner impressed in his brief pitching stint this season, and Dustin Martin may prove to ba a steal as he's a pretty polished hitter.

The Holdzkom pick pissed me off, as did the Hedrick and Stegall picks when Betances was still on the board. Stegall could turn out to be okay, but Betances is impressive and a local kid.

I'm really hoping the Mets end the draft-and-follow era in style and sign up Jeremy Barfield. I was shocked to see him fall that low, round 9 or 10, with his power projectability and pedigree. I had him pegged as a 3rd or 4th rounder. Signing him will make me feel much better about this draft, though right now I think it was average.

The whole Beato fiasco left a sour taste in my mouth, as well.

by nyr2k2 on Dec 26, 2006 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Barfield

I don't know about Barfield. He may have all the tools in the world, but it does matter to me the type of person that puts on a Mets uniform.

It takes a pretty despicable person to throw your own father down a set of stairs. I know that I am completely going based on the sketchiest details of the police reports, but there's almost no way to put it into a good light.

I don't care if he could hit like his father. If this is the type of character that one can excuse without Barfield issuing the deepest, most sincere apology, then we really care too much about winning.

Let the Phillies fans root for the Brett Myerses of the world.

by Raskolnikov on Dec 27, 2006 12:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Barfield

He was fighting with his father on the stairs and he made the mistake of pushing his father, who feel down the stairs. Unless he made a conscious decision to attempt to push his father down the staircase, I honestly could care less. People do stupid things in the heat of the moment all the time, and from everything that I read from both Jesse and Jeremy, it wasn't some sort of intentional act where he wanted to hurt his father.

And why should he apologize to anyone but his father? He's not the property of the Mets, and has no obligation to the fan base or organization. No charges were filed against him and his father said it was a heat of the moment thing and that Jeremy is a good kid. He has no reason whatsoever to issue a public apology. He's an 18-yo private citizen attending community college. Give the kid a break.

Also, what happened to giving an 18 year old kid a second chance? He has no history of violence, or any criminal record, and from all accounts is a solid citizen. I'd rather be known as an organization that allows people a second chance than an organization completely intolerant of the slightest slip up, regardless of fact or circumstance.

And again- he's barely 18.

by nyr2k2 on Dec 27, 2006 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs