Community Prospect #48

by BaseballBrain on Dec 19, 2006 11:33 AM EST

Here's what we have so far:
1. Alex Gordon 3B-KC
2. Delmon Young OF-TB
(Daisuke Matsuzaka RHP-SEI)
3. Philip Hughes RHP-NYY
4. Brandon Wood SS-ANA
5. Homer Bailey RHP-CIN
6. Billy Butler OF-KC
7. Cameron Maybin OF-DET
8. Chris Young OF-ARI
9. Justin Upton OF-ARI
10. Matt Garza - RHP-MIN
11. Andy Laroche - 3B-LAD
12. Troy Tulowitzki - SS-COL
13. Jay Bruce - OF-CIN
14. Reid Brignac - SS-TB
15. Elijah Dukes - OF-TB
16. Andrew McCutchen - OF-PIT
17. Carlos Gonzalez - OF-ARI
18. Adam Miller - RHP-CLE
19. Evan Longoria - 3B-TB
20. Tim Lincecum - RHP-SF
21. Mike Pelfrey - RHP-NYM
22. Yovani Gallardo - RHP-MIL
23. Andrew Miller - LHP-DET
24. Jose Tabata - OF-NYY
25. Ryan Braun - 3B-MIL
26. Scott Elbert - LHP-LAD
27. Fernando Martinez - OF-NYM
28. Luke Hochevar - RHP-KC
29. Clayton Kershaw - LHP-LAD
30. Adam Jones - OF-SEA
31. Jason Hirsh - RHP-HOU
32. James Loney - 1B-LAD
33. Hunter Pence - OF-HOU
34. Nick Adenhart - RHP-ANA
35. Joey Votto - 1B-CIN
36. Colby Rasmus - OF-STL
37. Jeff Niemann - RHP-TB
38. Daric Barton - 1B-OAK
39. Brandon Erbe - RHP-BAL
40. Adam Lind - OF/DH-TOR
41. Jacoby Ellsbury - OF-BOS
42. Felix Pie - OF-CHC
43. Chris Iannetta - C-COL
44. Phil Humber - RHP-NYM
45. Josh Fields - 3B-CHW
46. Ian Stewart - 3B-COL
47. Jarrod Saltalamacchia - C-ATL

Veal and Sweeney fail to get enough support and drop off for a round. Troy Patton, Travis Buck, and Kouzmanoff get a chance. Maybe after Christmas we can try Carlos Gomez.

Poll

Who is the #48 prospect?

Billy Rowell

44 votes

John Danks

51 votes

Franklin Morales

33 votes

Erick Aybar

17 votes

Travis Snider

30 votes

Humberto Sanchez

33 votes

Troy Patton

25 votes

Kevin Kouzmanoff

26 votes

Travis Buck

15 votes

Other (please specify)

8 votes

282 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Other

Sweeney.

by rhd on Dec 19, 2006 11:38 AM EST reply actions

Other

Joel Guzman

by Havok1517 on Dec 19, 2006 11:44 AM EST reply actions

Other

Guzman

by grozzy on Dec 19, 2006 11:48 AM EST reply actions

Guzman?

Really?

Based on what, his bad stats last year, his bad scouting reports lately (slow bat, no position), or his reputation as a slacker?

by gogotabata on Dec 19, 2006 4:17 PM EST up reply actions

I've been thinking the same thing

I don't even have Guzman in my Devil Rays top 10, with guys like Andrew Sonnanstine and Mitch Talbot ahead of him. I mean, if people think he can pull through, then great, but he just seems like a bum, a latter day Raul Mondesi with less physical tools.

Actually, I guess that if he turns out to be Mondesi, then a top 50 spot is justified. Has that same kind of slacker attitude though, and I'm not sure he has as much talent to get away with it.

by Brickhaus on Dec 19, 2006 4:42 PM EST up reply actions

He's a physical...

monster. He went through a lot this year after playing well in Las Vegas. He bounced from LA to the minors, he switched to different positions multiple times, then was traded to a different organization. I can see why he struggeled. But he's 6'6 250lbs that can play INF or corner OF with a good glove and was the most highly touted player ever to come out of the DR. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt based on past performace and physical skills. Just because he has one less then steller, and it wasn't even that bad as a whole, season people want to write him off. He has more upside than many guys that have already been taken or are still left.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Joel%20Guzman&pos=3B&sid=milb& amp;t=p_pbp&pid=433591

by Havok1517 on Dec 19, 2006 6:32 PM EST up reply actions

Same here in general

He has consistantly been one of the most talented players in the minors, his physical tools are top notch and he's still quite young. He certainly gets knocked down a bit on lists for his preformance this year, but he was forced to adjust to repeated changes in his position and to being traded from the organization he has been with for quite a while. he will readjust and can still be a great hitter. He deserves some slack for one bad year.

by grozzy on Dec 20, 2006 11:12 AM EST up reply actions

Other

Veal

by Wheelhouse on Dec 19, 2006 11:56 AM EST reply actions

Danks

This is a good spot for him.

by eazyb81 on Dec 19, 2006 12:10 PM EST reply actions

Went Morales here...

And I have to say that I've been holding the possibility that he's going to pitch in Coors against him. It may be true that he'll pitch in Coors, and that could quite possibly make him statistically unimpressive.

However, it's also possible that he could be traded or pitch for another team, and with that in mind, a young power lefty with pretty good numbers.

Anyway, most of his ratios aren't great, they're good. His strikeout rate is good. His quality of stuff seems above average, and then he gets some additional credit for being a lefty. All in all, I had to take him over short season guys, or guys with significant performance or age problems.

by beastball on Dec 19, 2006 1:04 PM EST reply actions

Coors isn't what it used to be

runs were down last year in colorado and i don't think that is a one-time thing......should even the field for pitchers going forward........

i must say i disagree with your comment his strikeout rate is good -- 10.46/9 is great if you ask me......

by Wheelhouse on Dec 19, 2006 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

underrated

His quality of stuff has been compared to the good version of Oliver Perez, which is great not just good.

His fastball at 98 for a lefty is outstanding, not just good.

He was the best starting pitcher in the Cal League last year, which is great not merely good.

He has the stats, scouting report, and stuff.... he probably should have been on this list earlier.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Dec 20, 2006 1:49 AM EST up reply actions

Well, I disagree somewhat...

Obviously, the value of being considered the best pitcher in any sub-set of the minors is completely relative to the quailty of the members of that subset. Personally, I didn't really like any pitcher from the Cal league. I know some people liked Adenhart, but that wouldn't be me. So being called the best out of a sub-par group isn't great, but it's good. Had he ranked above Gallardo, Bailey, Garza, or Hughes, then that would've been great.

I'll concede that his stuff is great, and his strikeout rate is great, but even beyond a 1.4 WHIP, his K/(BB+H) ratio was only a little over .8, which is not great. For me to take notice I'd prefer it be in the high .9s or greater.

I don't nessicarily agree that he should've been on the list earlier, for the most part I like the prospects better who are ahead of him. I will agree that there may be a guy or two who I think are on there too soon, but I think this area is appropriate for Morales, which is why I voted for him.

by beastball on Dec 20, 2006 8:52 AM EST up reply actions

Walk rate

If his walk rate was in the Hughes/Gallardo class, he would be a top 10 prospect.

There's quite a gap between top 10 and top 50 and I think he more than bridges that gap with his only flaw being a high walk rate at age 20.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Dec 20, 2006 10:34 AM EST up reply actions

Yep, I agree with some of that...

ya know, when looking at it, I'd liked to see him go more early 40s. Looking at the list from the mid-30s to this point, I don't like him better than Niemann, Pence, Votto, Rasmus, Lind, Iannetta, Fields, or Stewart, but I do like him better than Erbe, Adenhart, Ellsbury, Barton and Humber. I think he's more on par with Pie, or Salty.

So, anyway, just given the context of this list, I think he probably could've been slotted 5-6 places earlier, but I don't think I would rank him much higher than that.

Actually, looking into it a bit more, I'm more comfortable with the idea that he should've gone early 40s. If you look at Bailey from 2005, he had great stuff, great K/rate, horrible walk rate, and he was 38 on the BA top 100. So, as I said, given the context of this list, I think Morales should've gone in the upper 40s.

by beastball on Dec 20, 2006 11:07 AM EST up reply actions

Other...

Slowey

by Terry Ryan Jr on Dec 19, 2006 1:17 PM EST reply actions

Terry Ryan-

Mets prospect Kevin Mulvey said he's never seen a guy with an ability to place his pitches wherever he wants them like Slowey did in the AFL.

by Peter North on Dec 19, 2006 3:06 PM EST reply actions

Something

Matsuzaka is signed, you don't have to list him as Seibu anymore.

by limozeen on Dec 19, 2006 4:04 PM EST reply actions

speaking of which....

iirc, you/we forgot about Matsusaka and then were reminded after the first two guys were voted in. hence the paranthetical/non-numbered position.

perhaps there should be a run-off between him and Gordon for #1, if Gordon wins between him and D Young for #2, etc?

by scooter on Dec 19, 2006 4:21 PM EST up reply actions

we did that.

we ran him against delmon for #2 and he lost. that was right after matsuzaka first posted, though; perceptions may have changed at this point. i think he might win now.

by wily mo on Dec 19, 2006 5:14 PM EST up reply actions

Perceptions?

I don't understand how perceptions could have changed... neither of them have played since the vote. The only thing I can see is the Red Sox fans all voting for him now that he's on their team.

by jc3 on Dec 19, 2006 6:55 PM EST up reply actions

maybe they haven't played

but people done watched a lot of matsuzaka videos on youtube. when we first took the vote he was just a name to a lot of people; a lot more information about him has penetrated the brainosphere at this point.

by wily mo on Dec 19, 2006 8:14 PM EST up reply actions

Rowell

Bill Rowell has been getting my vote for awhile. I simply think his upside is the highest for the remaining prospects (I'm thinking a richer man's Ryan Braun), plus his first season of pro ball is encouraging, his scouting reports are encouraging, and he came into the draft as the best-regarded high school bat. Two downsides: 1) youth/lack of track record, and 2) he'll likely move off of third. I don't really see either as a real downside, as time will likely take care of number one, and if he hits as he projects to, I think we're still looking at an all-star quality player in lefty or first, perhaps Richie Sexson with a better average. Sounds like a top 50 prospect to me.

by gogotabata on Dec 19, 2006 4:23 PM EST reply actions