Based on upside alone, Henry to me is a better prospect then Roberson. Yes his stats don't reflect that but just last year people were loving Henry's tools. Is he already a bust in your eyes John?

Nothing about him? What am I missing?

Curious where he would rank if he wasn't a rule 5 pick last year.

where would he have ranked if he hadn't been traded a couple of weeks ago ?

he was a 6 year minor league free agent, so i don't think he should be on this list.  and he also has a significantly worse injury history and worse performance record than fellow reliever joe bisenius.  

edgar garcia definately deserves to be in the top 20.  i personally feel he is a grade C+, at least, based on his physical projectability and control of a low 90's fastball and 2 offspeed pitches.  10 bb in 60 innings as a 18 year old with stuff as good as his should get considerable notice.

i think you're giving drabek WAY too much credit for his amateur background.  he is not the second best prospect in the organization at this time.  

i like segovia alot.  i think he could step in this year and fill a significant role in the bullpen.  

i think your bottom 3 should be replaced by players with more upside, like joe bisenius, fabio castro, and jason jaramillo.  all 3 are likely to make an impact at the major league level this season.  

1. Carlos Carrasco
   
2. JA Happ
   
3. Gio Gonzalez
   
4. Michael Bourn
   
5. Scott Mathieson
   
6. Edgar Garcia
   
7. Adrian Cardenas
   
8. Zach Segovia
   
9. Kyle Drabek
   
10. Michael Costanzo
    
11. Josh Outman
    
12. Greg Golson
    
13. Matt Maloney
    
14. D'Arby Myers
    
15. Dan Brauer
    
16. Justin Germano
    
17. Carlos Ruiz
    
18. Joe Bisenius
    
19. Ben Pfinsgraff
    
20. CJ Henry
    
21. Matt Smith
    
22. Jeremy Slayden
    
23. Jason Donald
    
24. Welinson Baez
    
25. Jarrod Freeman
    
26. Lou Marson
    
27. Andrew Carpenter
    
28. Michael Dubee
    
29. Jesus Sanchez
    
30. Jason Jaramillo

this was after mathieson's injury.  were he healthy, he would be right next to carrasco at the top of the list.  

i think that jaramillo's AFL performance should move him up to the top 20 range.

ben pfinsgraff deserves a mention, and should get looked into for inclusion in the book over a guy like brett harker.

after the top 11(top 10, since the gonzalez trade), there is a significant dropoff.

I would put Joe Bisenius near the top; yet he's not in the top 20.

The other guy in the Thome trade. What ever happened to him?

In my opinion, the Phillies system looks to be near the bottom in all of baseball.  Carrasco looks like he may be able to help the middle of the rotation someday, but nothing exciting after that.

was flat HORRID in rookie ball. Upside or not, he doesn't deserve such a high rating.

His speed and instincts seem really impressive.

Does he have Podsednik potential?

Woohoo, My boy D'Arby Myers nearly cracking the Top 10!

My two points:

1. As someone mentioned above, how did Edgar Garcia fall so far. He still has a ton of upside, and he is only 19.  This is the same pitcher that was ranked in the top 8 by Baseball America just last year, did he have such a mediocre year to move him down that much?
2. One guy who I've seen receive little to no attention, is Redne Fuenmayor.  He's 20 years old, hit .325 in the VSL, and he had consistent numbers all around.

Everybody has their own take on their favorite team's farm system, so I figured I'd join in on the fun. This is a quick draft of a very preliminary list. As you can see, I'm not all that worried about Scott Mathieson's upcoming TJ surgery (if you're gonna have it done, get it done young), very optimistic about Mike Costanzo's upcoming AA season (more of a hunch than anything), and not quite sold that Jason Jaramillo's future is anything more than that of a backup catcher (there is still value there, but he's not the upper crust prospect that many Phillies fans believe...my opinion is closer to John's with regards to JJ, but I still think he absolutely deserves a spot on the list).

As with any system, outside of the few consensus top guys (of which the Phils have very, very few) the list gets very muddled. The majority of guys picked 20-30 were younger players that earned spots on the list more for their tools than performance (i.e. Henry, Marson, and Baez).

I slotted in players that will have a role on the '07 Phillies in parenthesis...Ruiz and Smith are assured of spots, while Castro will either start the season in the big league pen or in the high minors starting. My own quirkiness prefers to see them separate from the true minor leaguers on the list...it's probably dumb, but it makes it easier for me to organize.  

1.    RHSP Carlos Carrasco (top notch A-ball numbers, I'd love to see the Phillies challenge him with a double jump to AA...though skipping levels hasn't worked too well with Carrasco in the past)

2.    RHSP Scott Mathieson (TJ surgery shelves him for all of '07...still a young guy with plus stuff, profiles as either a future starter or relief ace)

3.    RHSP Kyle Drabek (as high a ceiling as any other prospect in the system...Rookie ball numbers  and lack of maturity are red flags, but his talent is undeniable...Cole Hamels only dropped to the Phillies because of injury/immaturity, Phillies hope lighting strikes twice with Drabek)

4.    LHSP J.A. Happ (big jump up in '06, could work his way into Phillies rotation once the inevitable Adam Eaton injury occurs...you can't really blame Eaton though, those DVDs can be damn tough to open)

5.    OF Michael Bourn (old-school prototype leadoff man, would have been an ideal fit playing center field next to Burrell and Abreu...oh well, at least we now have C.J. Henry!...another year in AAA could serve him well as he'll indirectly compete with Shane Victorino to see who will be the Phils CF come 2008)

6.    3B Michael Costanzo
7.    LHSP Josh Outman
8.    RHSP Edgar Garcia
9.    OF Greg Golson
10.    INF Adrian Cardenas
(LHRP Fabio Castro)
11.    RHRP Zack Segovia
12.    OF D'Arby Myers
(C Carlos Ruiz)
13.    LHSP Matt Maloney
14.    RHSP Justin Germano
15.    C Jason Jaramillo
(LHRP Matt Smith)
16.    RHRP Joe Bisenius
17.    LHSP Daniel Brauer
18.    RHSP Kyle Kendrick
19.    OF Jeremy Slayden
20.    RHSP Jarrod Freeman
21.    RHSP Drew Carpenter
22.    SS C.J. Henry
23.    C Lou Marson
24.    C Jesus Sanchez
25.    3B Welinson Baez
26.    OF T.J. Warren
27.    RHRP Pat Overholt
28.    INF Jason Donald
29.    INF Brad Harman
30.    RHRP Brett Harker

The 2006 draft brought in all kinds of desperately needed talent into the pipeline. Drabek (1), Cardenas (Supp. 1), Myers (4), and Carpenter (2) should make almost any Top 20 list this offseason.

Jason Donald (3) is another player who could draw consideration though I personally fear his high collegiate strikeout totals and inability to impress when hitting with wood as an amateur; he profiles best as a super-utility guy to me rather than a starting shortstop.

The Phillies are notorious for falling in love with toolsy outfielders come draft day (so much so that they loved Greg Golson more than Phil Hughes...but I digress). T.J. Warren (8), Dominic Brown (20), and Darin McDonald (12) are newest toolsy outfielders added to the system with a chance of maybe developing down the line...Warren is the most advanced of the group, but Brown has the most long-term potential - something about 6'5", 200 pound guys recruited to play football at Miami with pro potential both on the mound or in the outfield appeal to me.

The Phils also added a few intriguing relief arms including Andrew Cruse (9), Sam Walls (10), and Will Savage (26). These guys may not have quite the ceiling as other, younger arms in draft have, but if I had to pick one player in the system to make it to the majors fastest I'd probably choose Walls...there's something to be said for that.

The Phillies also have an affinity for collecting big, tall, strapping young righthanded high schoolers. This year's haul included Jarrod Freeman (11) and Robert Roth (19) - two pitchers from baseball hotbeds Utah and Idaho, respectively. Freeman is very highly thought of within the organization and could emerge as a top 15 prospect next year at this time; Roth had a really rough debut in the GCL where he was extremely wild...he's a project, to say the least. Another young arm that has a shot to contribute (though I'm in the minority with this one amongst Phillies prospect mavens) is Michael Dubee (18), son of Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee. Michael comes out of a junior college in Oklahoma and could be far more than a courtesy pick.  

Overlord previously mentioned RHP Ben Pfinsgraff - I wasn't all that high on him coming out of school (only so-so peripherals at Maryland, plus I saw him pitch this past year against BC and came away unimpressed...he's a short righthander with a an average fastball, not exactly my cup of tea), but his results after getting drafted were impressive enough that I can admit I may have been wrong about him. I mostly wanted to mention him because he was just one of the four Phillies draftees I got to see this past NCAA season - C Shawn McGill (BC), RHRP Sam Walls (NC State), and INF Herman Demmink (Clemson) being the others. McGill and Demmink are minor league filler, but Walls and perhaps Pfinsgraff have the potential to someday crack a big league roster.

The ones who got away include 15th rounder Riley Cooper (now playing WR for the soon-to-be National Champion Florida Gators...just checking to see if you were still with me, Cooper does play wideout for Florida, but we all know Ohio State will be victorious - it pains me, a loyal PSU fan to say it, but it's inevitable), 31st rounder Bruce Billings, and perhaps the most painful of them all, 34th rounder Josh Thrailkill.

Names worth storing away from the Phillies championship VSL squad: IF Redne Fuenmayor (previously mentioned), C Francisco Murillo (.299/.402/.502 in 221 at bats), and pitchers Moises Melendez and Mauricio Romero. The VSL is as far as the majors as can be, but it doesn't hurt to just remember a couple extra names in the back of your mind...especially when the farm system is as bad as the Phillies is.

John, sorry for jumping all over your thread like this - just thought I could provide a little feedback about my favorite team's system. Plus talking baseball is way more fun than studying for finals...

Thanks for both the kind words and the questions. If I left anything out, please don't hesitate to yell.

Carrasco's 2005 was a disaster as he reportedly tried to overthrow every fastball and, as a result of that, lost all command on it whatsoever. It wasn't as though his walk rate was abnormally high, but his hit rate jumped because hitters knew they could wait on his breaking stuff since that fastball wouldn't be close (an example of the semantical difference of poor command rather than poor control).

In 2006, Carrasco excelled. What changed? Carlos himself has been quoted as saying he learned to slow things down on the mound and realize the importance of fastball location over velocity. That's all well and good, but perhaps more important was the development of another strong secondary pitch - his curveball. In '05, all he threw was a fastball-change combo...easy pickings for professional hitters. By 2006, he was throwing a fastball that sits in the low 90s (92-94 typically, but it can be a bit flat at times), a plus change, and a developing (slowly but surely) power curve.

As of now, Carrasco is a damn fine pitching prospect but now quite among the elite. If he can add just a tick more velocity on his fastball, he could really bust out in A+/AA in 2007. His 6-3, 180 pound frame combined with his youth (he'll be 20 in March) could allow for the heater to be cranked up to mid-90s consistently and if so...watch out.

A name that I haven't often heard him compared to, but I'll throw it out there anyway is Ryan Madson. Their minor league numbers are very similar, they have similar builds, and similar repertoires (low 90s fastball, plus change, curve needs work). People may be down on Madson these days, but I still think he'll be a quality big leaguer for a long time. Carrasco has a bit more long-term upside, but I think it's a decent comp for the time being.

  While the Philly system always kinda look crappy like this, they still manage to crank out some really damn good players from their farm. (Utely , Howard, Myers, Hamels, Rollins ... not many team can really say they cranked out 5 top caliber players like this... hell i'm having a hard time thinking of teams that have this many legit superstars from that came up with their system...  )

 

That Phillies logo is kind of creepy.

1 Carlos Carrasco
2 Matt Maloney
3 James Happ
4 Adrian Cardenas
5 Josh Outman
6 Greg Golson
7 CJ Henry
8 Gio Gonzalez
9 Kyle Drabek
10 Carlos Ruiz
11 Mike Bourn
12 Zach Segovia
13 Scott Mathieson
14 Mike Costanzo
15 Jeremy Slayden
16 Edgar Garcia
17 Jason Jaramillo
18 D'Arby Myers
19 Welinson Baez
20 Sean Gamble
21 Kyle Kendrick
22 Jesus Sanchez
23 Francisco Murillo
24 Scott Mitchinson
25 Carlos Monasterios
26 Tim Moss
27 Lou Marson
28 Drew Carpenter
29 Brad Harman
30 Mike Durant
31 Tim Kennelly
32 Jason Donald