2007 Seattle Mariners Prospects

2007 Seattle Mariners Prospects
- Adam Jones, OF, B+ (Mike Cameron without the walks. Still young enough to get better than that)
- Brandon Morrow, RHP, B+ (I love his arm but he may need more time than most high-profile college pitchers)
- Jeff Clement, C, B (Was rushed and injured last year, but I still like his bat)
- Yung-Chi Chen, 2B, B (I like him more than other people but where does he fit on the roster?)
- Tony Butler, LHP, B- (sleeper from 2006 draft could advance rapidly)
- Ryan Feierabend, LHP, B- (best of the large group of control lefties in the system)
- Chris Tillman, RHP, B- (Huge upside but rather raw and will need time)
- Eric O'Flaherty, LHP, C+ (should be a very good reliever)
- Yorman Bazardo, RHP, C+ (doing well in relief in winter ball)
- Anthony Varvaro, RHP, C+ (sleeper prospect recovering from Tommy John surgery, another guy I like more than other people)
- Wladimir Balentien, OF, C (have to respect his power and he walked more this year, but .230 in the Texas League=.200 in the majors)
- Mark Lowe, RHP, C (Grade B/B+ prospect if healthy, but elbow woes a serious concern for me)
- Ryan Rowland-Smith, LHP, C (took well to relief role, could be a good LOOGY)
- Robert Rohrbaugh, LHP, C (another finesse lefty)
- Chris Minaker, SS, C (Stanford standout looks like possible steal in 10th round last year)
- Justin Thomas, LHP, C (another finesse lefty)
- Andrew Barb, RHP, C (acquired from Phillies, good bullpen arm)
- Austin Bibins-Dirkx, RHP, C (intriguing reliever)
- Bryan Lahair, 1B, C (Brian Daubach type)
- Michael Wilson, OF, C (good power, works hard, strikes out too much)
The Mariners In One Sentence: Seattle has no sure-fire can't miss prospects, as even their best guys have a questionmark or two, although Jones and Morrow in particular have impressive upsides if they refine their talents.
Lots of variation with the Grade Cs, depending on what you want to emphasize. The Mariners seem to have a fetish for finesse lefties, and aside from Jones and Clement they don't have a lot of high-ceiling impact position players on the way up.
ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.
There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.
And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.
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42
comments
Comments
Wow
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Dec 17, 2006 11:35 AM EST 0 recs
thats an old school logo
by goalieguy on
Dec 17, 2006 1:16 PM EST
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I love
by The Congo Hammer on
Dec 17, 2006 1:19 PM EST
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I'm a bit surprised
by The Congo Hammer on Dec 17, 2006 1:17 PM EST 0 recs
I'm fairly certain it's listed as
by toonsterwu on Dec 17, 2006 1:29 PM EST 0 recs
I HAVE to comment
by casejud on
Dec 23, 2006 12:54 AM EST
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I also like....
He was at St. Johns with Hansen a couple years ago right?
Low to mid 90's fastball, and a hard curveball that could be a plus pitch.
He only had TJ surgery, and its been 2 years (next year) since he had it. He should be healthy and could jump through the minors.
by SenorGato88 on Dec 17, 2006 1:56 PM EST 0 recs
Agreed
by BaseballBrain on
Dec 17, 2006 3:24 PM EST
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I LOVED that pick...
by PeterF on
Dec 17, 2006 5:49 PM EST
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Balentien
Balentien certainly doesn't seem like a guy who is ever going to be a .300 hitter, but I was actually encouraged by his improved skills this year.
by FI on Dec 17, 2006 2:16 PM EST 0 recs
Butler
by BaseballBrain on Dec 17, 2006 3:25 PM EST 0 recs
Great to see Butler on this list
He pretty much made everyone look silly in high school.
by wibadger on
Dec 17, 2006 4:43 PM EST
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Nice work
Interesting list.
I like the high rankings for Butler and Varvaro. Varvaro in particular could move fast in 2007.
I was a little suprised by how high you ranked guys like Chen, Rowland-Smith, Minaker and Rohrbaugh. My impression of each of these guys was that they had low ceilings, and weren't likely to be much more than role players or situational relievers. Do you think that these guys are more than that? Or is this just a weak system?
Most of the people who follow the M's system closely are excited about some of the guys at the lowest levels of the system. Greg Halman - a CFer in the NW league this year - is generating a lot of interest among the M's prospect mavens, but not nearly as much attention in non-team-specific rankings. He is a toolsy player with a lot of upside, but he missed time this year with a broken hand. Other guys that people like are Alex Liddi, Gerardo Avila, and Carlos Peguero. The M's also signed two high-profile international players, SS Carlos Triunfel (D.R.) and OF Mario Martinez (Venezuela), that will be playing in the US next year at age 17.
Do you have any opinions about these guys, or is it just too early to get a good idea of how they rate against more experienced players? IMO, I will take a toolsy 17-year-old SS with big upside over Robert Rohrbaugh anyday.
by Jerry on Dec 17, 2006 6:20 PM EST 0 recs
players
by John Sickels on Dec 17, 2006 6:27 PM EST 0 recs
Yeah
Better to be conservative than speculate with little information.
by Jerry on
Dec 17, 2006 6:37 PM EST
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One more question
I had one more question for you. Or, more accurately, a few linked quesitons.
The M's have been crazy with their promotions lately. They have guys like Adam Jones, Rob Johnson, Jeff Clement, Matt Tuiasosopo, and most of thier more advanced relievers (O'Flaherty, Lowe, Stephen Kahn, Mickolio, etc) playing at levels far beyond where most organizations would place them. The promotions of Clement and Tuiasosopo in particular have drawn a lot of criticism. To me, those promotions made zero sense.
As a guy who focuses on stats quite a bit, does this type of organizational philosophy make it more difficult to rank prospects? Someone like Adam Jones is a good example. He has been rushed through the minors at breakneck speed, and already made his ML debut. A lot of people point out his lack of plate discipline, but could that simply reflect the fact that he has been playing against far older competition and struggled to cope with aggressive promotions? I would imagine it would be tough to change your approach at the plate after changing positions and starting AAA at age 20. If Jones had spent all of 2005 in A+ and all of 2006 in AA (which is where he would have been in virtually any other organization besides Seattle), he probably would have put up gaudy numbers and gotten much more exposure from national prospect pundits.
Do you take this into account with players who have struggled? Rob Johnson and Matt Tuiasosopo are good examples of pretty good prospects who struggled after very questionable promotions.
I was wondering what you take on this is. Are the M's crazy? Are they messing up their prospects? And does their aggressive philosophy result in national prospect authorities undervaluing Mariners prospects?
by Jerry on Dec 17, 2006 6:36 PM EST 0 recs
Adam Jones
;-)
by dkny22 on Dec 17, 2006 8:57 PM EST 0 recs
Why does Chen's rating level get so mixed?
The debate on his defense attribute seems mixed, is he good/bad/horrid ? he looked fine to me in international plays. but some have said his 2B is atrocious?
by RollingWave on Dec 17, 2006 9:47 PM EST 0 recs
My feeling is that
by toonsterwu on
Dec 18, 2006 6:33 PM EST
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Michael Wilson
by valpoguy7772 on Dec 18, 2006 1:55 AM EST 0 recs
wilson
by John Sickels on Dec 18, 2006 2:04 AM EST 0 recs
Greg Halman...
I also think you're underrating Justin Thomas's stuff by labelling him a "another finesse lefty." He pitches in the 89-92mph range with a slider that's at least a potentially average major league pitch. In the hierarchy of Ms lefties, his stuff's significantly better than that of Robert Rohrbaugh and Ryan Rowland-Smith.
by jhelfgott on Dec 18, 2006 3:14 AM EST 0 recs
Stats say
by PolkCountyRay on Dec 18, 2006 9:18 AM EST 0 recs
Bibens-Dirkx
Luis Valbuena played in 3 games in Tacoma at 19 before reporting to Everett in 2005... it seems to be something the M's do when they're in need of a player.
That said, I think he's an intriguing bullpen prospect. You can see his sidewinding style in some photos here.
by marc w on Dec 18, 2006 12:20 PM EST 0 recs
Lahair
He didn't hit as well in the qualifying and championship, .222 with 2 hr's and 9rbis. In the exhibition friendship games before the event, he hit .529 with 3hr's and 7 rbi's. Overall for the pro team he hit .321, with 5hr's, and 16 RBI's in 14 games. He played on the National team in 2005 as well hitting .361 with 3 home runs and 8 RBI's.
by filter on Dec 18, 2006 5:45 PM EST 0 recs
Project Prospect
by battlekow on
Dec 19, 2006 2:31 PM EST
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Whoa
The reason LaHair doesn't get much love is that he's never flashed a lot of power. As a guy who's only played 1B, that's something of a problem. Even last year, he showed good plate discipline but so-so slugging in the Texas league, then put up two months and about 150 ABs of .100 ISO slugging in AAA. Then, in August, he went nuts, with 8HRs and a .786 slg in 56 ABs.
So the question is, did a light bulb go off, or did he just have a really, really awesome couple of weeks? I think he belongs on the list, but I can't quibble with John's ranking or notes given that he hasn't shown consistent power throughout his MiLB career. Yes, his home parks have hurt him, but a quick glance at his AAA stats may be misleading. I really hope his power surge is real, and he did OK for the national team, so maybe something did click. But for now, an 11-20 ranking is appropriate.
by marc w on
Dec 20, 2006 2:34 PM EST
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Asdrubal Cabrera
by DocNo on Dec 19, 2006 3:01 AM EST 0 recs
Adam Jones
by nothingfalls on Dec 19, 2006 2:11 PM EST 0 recs
Word
Compare Jones with Chris Young. Jones has put up similar numbers at the same levels despite doing so while 2 years younger.
Jones is just as good as Young. But doesn't get nearly the publicity.
by Jerry on
Dec 19, 2006 6:04 PM EST
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i think they're both underrated.
i do tend to point out at times like this that young has shown significantly more (and still increasing) power than jones. some of that may be (likely is) the age difference. but jones has never cracked a .500 slug; young slugged .545, in birmingham, which is a cavern, while skipping a level. young's ISOd has also been a little more consistent; it's always around .100, whereas jones had a bad OBP in low-A and just an okay one in AAA this year.
if jones was really putting up similar numbers to young at the same levels 2 years younger, he'd be better than young, not just as good. but young's numbers are actually somewhat better. overall they do feel about the same as prospects to me, but somehow i trust young a little bit more just becuase when you project somebody based on age vs. level, usually it happens, but not always.
we'll see what happens.
by wily mo on
Dec 19, 2006 8:48 PM EST
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something to chew on
Jones
- David Wright
- Adrian Beltre
- Edwin Encarnacion
- Robinson Cano
- Felipe Lopez
- Willie Mays
- Barry Bonds
- Manny Ramirez
- Andruw Jones
- Tony Conigliaro
by wily mo on
Dec 19, 2006 11:15 PM EST
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What day is it?
by cooper7d7 on
Dec 20, 2006 11:57 AM EST
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that's true, and actually, also
by wily mo on
Dec 20, 2006 5:24 PM EST
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ss
by wily mo on
Dec 20, 2006 5:31 PM EST
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PECOTA
After the 2005 season, Jones looked like a pretty good prospect. Now he sure as hell looks like an elite (though not quite can't miss) prospect to me. I'd be pretty surprised if next year's PECOTA doesn't reflect that.
by jhelfgott on
Dec 20, 2006 2:42 PM EST
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I live in Seattle
by casejud on
Dec 23, 2006 12:31 AM EST
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RyanFierebend
by casejud on Dec 23, 2006 12:37 AM EST 0 recs
Cha-Seung Baek
by casejud on Dec 23, 2006 4:21 AM EST 0 recs
I think...
by JY on
Dec 23, 2006 3:53 PM EST
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Yeah, but what I meen is...
by casejud on
Dec 23, 2006 6:21 PM EST
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