2007 Los Angeles Angels Prospects

by John Sickels on Dec 15, 2006 5:14 PM EST in News Comment 48 comments

Brandon Wood, SS, Grade A (I'm not worried about the strikeouts)
Nick Adenhart, RHP, B+ (A fine young pitching prospect)
Sean Rodriguez, 2B-SS, B+ (still underrated by many)
Hank Conger, C, B (strong bat, glove a question still)
Erick Aybar, SS, B (starting to slip a bit in my mind)
Stephen Marek, RHP, B (doesn't have Adenhart's ceiling)
Jose Arredondo, RHP, B- (impressive fastball but needs another pitch)
Sean O'Sullivan, RHP, C+ (good pitchability but has lost some of his fastball)
Tommy Mendoza, RHP, C+ (throws strikes, projectable)
Ryan Mount, SS, C+ (I like his bat)
Jeff Mathis, C, C+ (needs a change of scenery)
Hainley Statia, SS, C+ (good glove, similar to Alberto Callaspo)
Matt Sweeney, 3B-1B, C+ (draft bargain blasted ARL pitching)
Trevor Bell, RHP, C+ (another projectable arm)
Jeremy Haynes, RHP, C+ (another projectable arm, gets grounders)
Kenneth Herndon, RHP, C+ (another projectable arm, gets grounders)
Young-Il Jung, RHP, C+ (equivalent to an extra second-round pick)
Peter Bourjos, OF, C+ (toolsy but rather raw)
Terry Evans, OF, C+ (was it a fluke? Not completely, but he's not really THAT good)
Nicolas Vladimir Veras, RHP, C+ (another projectable arm)

Others of Note:

Richard Aldridge, RHP; Chris Armstrong, LHP; Matt Brown, 3B; Clay Fuller, OF; Warner Madrigal, RHP; Bobby Mosebach, RHP; Dustin Moseley, RHP; Tommy Murphy, OF; Chris Pettit, OF; Chris Resop, RHP; Steven Shell, RHP; Reggie Willits, OF; Bobby Wilson, C.

The Angels in One Sentence: This is another farm system that has thinned out due to graduations to the majors, although there is still considerable talent present.

I really struggled with a lot of these grades. Some of the Grade C guys like Willits, Resop, and Wilson are spare-part types much closer to the majors than the Grade C+ guys, who are younger with more upside. I may downgrade some of the C+ and upgrade some of the Cs. If you have a case to make for a particular player, go ahead and make it. Remember that none of this is written in stone yet, this is the first draft.

ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.

There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.

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Wood- SS or 3B?

I'm assuming that you see Wood as a major league shortstop. Is that right?

As a third baseman, A would be high. He's 21 at double A with good power and mediocre plate discipline at best.

by Mike Green on Dec 15, 2006 6:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Adenhart

What's stoping him from being a A- prospect? I don't think he's an A prospect just yet but I deffinatly think he's one of the best pitchers in the minors.

by nate050904 on Dec 15, 2006 6:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Question on mathis

Why does Mathis need a change in scenery? Just a chance for a new start or has the organization done something wrong in particular?

by parrot11 on Dec 15, 2006 7:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kotch and Mac

They're too experienced to consider "prospects," but both Kotchman and MacPherson still baffle me. What will these two make of themselves, and how did everyone get them so wrong (or did they)?

Poor health obviously played a part in derailing them in 05 and 06, but I think part of the blame also has to fall with the Angels organization, for failing to give them the playing time needed to get comfortable at the major league level. And as much as I think Brandon Wood deserves his A rating, a little voice in the back of my head wonders if his numbers will hold up once he gets out of the Angels minor league parks...

by Yakker on Dec 15, 2006 7:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Especially with McPherson. I would have taken him over Morneau when they were both still in the minors. Now Morneau is the reigning MVP, and McPherson is barely hanging on. I still can't believe that McPhersn has done this poorly so far.

Fire Charlie Manuel!

by zdavis2512 on Dec 16, 2006 7:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

D-Mac

is maybe not done, but so far as the Angels are concerned he likely is. He's all but completely fallen off the map as far as they're concerned.

The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.

by scareduck on Dec 16, 2006 9:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

how is that the Angels' fault?

they stuck with Kotchman while he was, literally, sleepwalking.

and Mac was injured and unproductive.

commenters here seem to think the only reason their favorite prospects struggle is that they were "mishandled" in always nebulous, shifting, contradictory ways.

by scooter on Dec 16, 2006 8:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure

I'm not blaming it all on the Angels, obviously. But they share some responsibility in my mind. Some specifics include missing the mono, signing Morales, signing Cabrera and bumping Macier to 3B...I'm not saying the team did anything wrong, they needed to bring people in who were healthy to play 1B and 3B, but as a kid who's struggling through a bad back or mono, the last thing you want to see is the organization moving on without you.

by Yakker on Dec 16, 2006 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"Poor Health" Isn't Failed Development

"Poor health" is the only reason why Kotchman and McPherson aren't playing regularly now.

Kotchman was first promoted from Double-A in 2004 as an interim emergency measure when Darin Erstad got hurt, and the Triple-A alternative Robb Quinlan was also hampered by injury. When he came up for good in the summer of 2005, he had over 1,200 minor league ABs under his belt. His AVG/OBP/SLG for 2005 in the majors were .278/.352/.484, but if you looked at his numbers after he was recalled in early August 2005 he absolutely raked the last two months of the major league season. His poor 2006 season was solely due to the mononucleosis, which is out of his system now.

As for McPherson, he's been suffering from a herniated disc since spring training 2003. He missed all of spring training and the first month of the 2003 season with the injury. It's been an intermittent problem, compounded by the bone spur on his hip that was tearing up his insides and causing terrible pain. He had surgery in September 2005 to remove the bone spur; he was in a wheelchair for a month before he could even start to walk again.

The herniated disc problem is still there; he's tried therapy, he's tried yoga, but it still locks up. According to media reports quoting McPherson, he's yet to get a consensus from doctors whether surgery would fix the problem, which is why he doesn't go under the knife. Under some scenarios, surgery could cost him an entire season.

I'd like to see anyone here calling Dallas a flop hit successfully with your back locking up at random intervals.

When healthy, Dallas made a lot of progress on shortening his swing and his pitch judgment. The problem is the bad back affects his mechanics.

Judge a player when he's healthy, not when he's injured.

by FutureAngels on Dec 16, 2006 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

FutureAngels

I have always enjoyed your insight on the Angels farm system and website, but was curious to know who you see as the future 1B of the Angels. Is it Kotchman? Morales, or is he better suited for DH?

by goose102977 on Dec 16, 2006 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kotchman vs. Morales

Kotchman, without a doubt. Casey is the "total package," if you don't ask him to run a footrace. He came into a pro ball a polished player because of his father, Tom, who may still be the winningest manager active in all the minor leagues.

Morales really is just a bat. He lacks mobility. He still needs to shorten his swing, improve his pitch selection, and generally get more experience. Kendry was in the big leagues less than a year after he played his first pro game at High-A Rancho Cucamonga. That was too soon, and it happened only because Kotchman became ill with mononucleosis and Erstad was too banged up to play any more.

I could see Kendry maybe winding up in left field one day, or as a backup first baseman. But that's about it.

by FutureAngels on Dec 16, 2006 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kotch and Mac

Well, we'll see. Hopefully the Angels let Kotch get 400+ ABs this year, health permitting. And perhaps McPherson can jump start his career, though he'll be 27 next year.

Maybe it's just poor health that kept them from putting up the numbers everyone expected, but I still wonder how much of it is the minor league parks. Maybe when healthy they duplicate their minor league lines, maybe they don't.

by Yakker on Dec 16, 2006 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

McPherson: Home vs. Road

It's not that hard these days to look at a player's home/road splits. There are several sites carrying such information.

With the PCL, though, you have to dig a little deeper. You have to know that Salt Lake, Colorado Springs, Las Vegas, Albuquerque and Tucson are all high-altitude parks and/or hitter-friendly parks due to climate. So when I look at Salt Lake players, I'll look at their game by game stats and pull out those parks versus the other PCL parks.

by FutureAngels on Dec 16, 2006 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure

Home/road splits are available now, but the finer you cut the data, the less meaningful it becomes.

by Yakker on Dec 17, 2006 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wood comment

What makes you not worry about his strikeouts? Just curious.

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Dec 15, 2006 8:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

not at all?!

Yep, I don't get that.
I mean, I understand that some people are less worried about him becoming a .250 hitter with below-average OBP than others because his power could clearly make up for that, but to give him an 'A' grade when there is clearly a substantial hole in his game seems strange.

What worries me most about the strikeouts is the fact that he didn't improve his contact skills at all as the season progressed - he just continued to strike out once every 3.2 plate appearances all season long.

by FI on Dec 15, 2006 8:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Woody

The odd thing about his K's is he supposedly never cuts down on his swing with 2 strikes.

So if he ever really wants to lower the K's he can protect after 2.

I kind of have to trust the scouts on this. There are many times where high K players bomb out, but there are also star players who whiffed like crazy in the minors, but the scouts usually saw something in the star players.

by elricsi on Dec 16, 2006 3:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

but...

Sure - and I don't think anyone is arguing that Wood won't be a pretty good player. His power alone should take him pretty far.
But how many players who struck out in 28%+ of plate appearances at age 22 when on to become real stars?

Sometimes I hear comparison to players like Troy Glaus, but even he had his K-rate much more under control at that age. There just are not many examples of players in Wood's position who went on to have long, above-average careers. Maybe he's just that unique, but I would need to be convinced of that and don't think the K's are worth dismissing.

by FI on Dec 16, 2006 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There is your answer right there

Statistics alone do not tell the whole story. What is the difference between a strikeout and a pop out? None, except strikeouts are more widely recorded(and thus more talked about). If pop outs were recorded by everyone, you could sit here and make a case against pretty much every power hitter in the minors. What matters most is that he still puts the ball in play a lot WITH QUALITY, and is actually better at doing it than most other hitters in the league- he'd have to be with his k's. But, the reason scouts dont worry, is because hes already so good at making good contact, theres actually less work to go through to get him to improve than with other hitters. As a coach, which would you rather have to teach- how to cut down on the bat with a 2 strike count, or teach a career .250 hitter how to make better contact? What I am getting at is that it is Wood's approach, rather than his skills, that is causing the strikeouts, and I promise once a major league hitting coach gets a hold of him that will be the first thing they work on with him. Too bad he's not in the Rangers' system- Rudy Jaramillo would get that problem fixed in about half an hour. I know it sounds contradictory to hear someone talk about the quality contact a hitter is making when they strike out as much as Wood does, but someone who not only hits as many HR's as he does, but also gets as many extra base hits as well, qualifies as a solid contact hitter in my book any day.

by rangersfan24 on Dec 17, 2006 12:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What Hitting Coaches Really Do

Re "... I promise once a major league hitting coach gets a hold of him that will be the first thing they work on with him."

Um, no offense, but that's really an insult to the people in the minor leagues who instruct the prospects.

By the time a player reaches the big leagues, he's been taught to be his own hitting coach. A major league hitting coach doesn't teach. His job is to make sure a batter stays in his mechanics.

A player gets exposed to plenty of ideas about hitting philosophy in the minors. But it's up to him to find what works. If it doesn't work, he's not going to make it to the big leagues.

I can't speak for other organizations, but with the Angels hitting instruction is coordinated from top to bottom. The minor league managers and coaches work with Mike Scioscia and Mickey Hatcher to make sure the philosophy and instruction are consistent. After every game, the minor league coaches call in game reports -- not box score stats, but actual information on player mechanics and other stuff that's not in a stat line -- to a recording system that allows all authorized personnel in the system to listen.

In addition, the Angels have all players, both batters and pitchers, videotaped during every game. Those videos are kept locally so the player can study his mechanics, but eventually they wind up in a central archive.

If/when that player makes it to the big leagues, the major league coach can pull those tapes to see whether a player in a slump is out of the mechanics that worked in the minors.

Grooming a prospect is a collaborative effort by everyone in the organization. Suggesting that the minor league coaches is incompetent is not only untrue, but unfair. With many coaches, the main reason they're in the minors is that they'd rather teach, and/or be home with family, than get all caught up in the glamour of the big leagues. For some of them, a big-league coaching job is a goal, but not everyone is into that. So don't mistake a love of teaching for incompetence.

by FutureAngels on Dec 17, 2006 1:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

first of all

this is a thread about brandon wood, not about the competence of hitting coaches. And the majority of the time, minor league hitting coaches either teach differently or worse than a major league coach. Just because someone is a minor league hitting coach doesnt mean he knows a whole lot about what hes doing or even cares about his job. As you said, many of them would rather be at home with their families than spend hours on end working with these guys. I mentioned Rudy Jaramillo before. Why is it that he turns less than desirable hitters into average hittiers and average hitters into great ones(Gary Matthews). Major league hitting coaches DO work with philosophies. Jaramillo not only works on mechanics, but teaches them how to hit, much like a golf instructor would teach a golfer how to score. He teaches them to go up to the plate every at bat KNOWING that they are excellent hitters and can hit anything that comes their way. He teaches them to control the count. But to sit there and say Wood is getting the proper instruction in the minors is a horrible statement. How hard is it to get your f*#@ing hitter to choke down on the bat with 2 strikes on you? If you don't tell him, he's just going to keep doing it his way

by rangersfan24 on Dec 17, 2006 10:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

minr league hitting instruction

The angels minor league hitting instructor is now the hitting instructor for the A's, he was an outstanding resource fot the minor league system

by usc70 on Dec 17, 2006 5:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right...

People do keep track of infield flies, and Wood's popup rate among all balls in play was 8%, which is above the league average.

So much for that theory...

by FI on Dec 17, 2006 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so i guess

the fact that he continues to be at or near the lead in HR, extra base hits, and total bases means nothing? he's very good at making contact. His only problem is that it's all or nothing with him... BECAUSE OF HIS APPROACH

by rangersfan24 on Dec 17, 2006 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

one-third

No, his power counts for a lot. It's what makes him such a good prospect, of course.

I was just correcting the misconception that Wood makes 'better' contact all the time because of his approach. The fact is he pops up as much as any other player. If he was "very good at making contact" I wouldn't expect over one-third of his plate appearances to result in infield flies or strikeouts.

by FI on Dec 18, 2006 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

do u know

how many infield fly's he had? i can't find a figure. but to say that he pops out as much as anyone else doesnt seem right- how can someone strike out as much as him, get as many hits as he does, and still get the same number of infield flies as anyone else? the math doesnt add up there

by rangersfan24 on Dec 20, 2006 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

pop ups.

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/457/457420ArkTEXbbip06.html

That actually has his rate at 12.5% of all batted balls, which is a bit higher than I've seen otherwise. But regardless, he pops up at least as much as any other player.

by FI on Dec 22, 2006 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

regardless

with the hr's he gets and his extra base hits he gets, in my book he's still one of the best at getting the good part of the bat on the ball, i dont care how much he k's. as long as he gets the hits, TB, and slg% i dont care WHAT FORM his outs come in. get what im saying??

by rangersfan24 on Dec 20, 2006 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wood's strikeouts

I agree totally. What seems strange is that Sickles states that "I'm not worried about the strikeouts" concerning Wood, but states that C. Maybin "just needs to cut down on strikeouts". I own both and I'm very weary of strikeouts. I've owned Branyan, Dunn, Ricky Weeks and others with poor plate discipline and have decided TRY to steer away from poor contact skills.

Mickey Mantle caused me to become a Yankee fan... Fantasy baseball has made me a true baseball fan.

by rockii on Dec 16, 2006 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wood's Pitch Selection

Well, first off keep in mind that Wood is all of 21 years old in Double-A. That's pretty young for Double-A; there are guys in rookie ball older than Wood. So as he gets older and is more experienced, it shouldn't be an issue any more.

And for the record, here's his AB:SO ratio by month for 2006:

April 97:36 (1:2.69)
May 102:34 (1:3.00)
June 96:29 (1:3.31)
July 108:35 (1:3.09)
August 50:15 (1:3.33)

... and then he left for Team USA and the Olympics qualifiers. In any case, his strikeout rate was generally trending towards improvement by season's end, other than the dip in July. His best ratio for the season was in August.

by FutureAngels on Dec 16, 2006 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

clarification

Trending towards improvement?
Sorry, that looks like flatlining with typical random variation.

That's even more the case when you look at K/PA, which is a more compelling measure of strikeout tendencies in my opinion since it doesn't reward players for walking less. Wood's K:AB ratio was better in August because he actually appeared to stop walking at all that month. His k_rate as a proportion of plate appearances was actually worse than his season average in August.

by FI on Dec 16, 2006 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not worrying about the strikeouts

am i mistaken? are we talking about the same guy who hit 43 hrs in A+ ball at age 20? i really could care less if he strikes out every other at bat, if he is able to even have the power he did last year in AA, with a few SBs on the side, then sign me up. i'll take that at SS or 3B, either way, that is one hell of a bat

by revans37 on Dec 17, 2006 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Trevor Bell....

is a huge sleeper.

His draft video had him looking like an ametuer HS version of Ben Sheets.

He showed good control this year. He's got a nice arm with a low 90's fastball, and a very good curveball.

He's one of my sleepers for next year.

On Brandon Wood:

My worries for his high K's go away every time I read about him and get a chance to watch clips of his swings.

Everything he hits, he hits hard. He at least takes walks, he's athletic enough to handle SS, and his power is ridiculous.

I'm starting to get re-high on him again.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 15, 2006 8:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Terry Evans

Did he play in the AFL? If he did, or wherever he played, could someone provide his stats? Will he start next season at Arkansas or move up to AAA?

by acr on Dec 15, 2006 9:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He did

You can find his stats here.

by battlekow on Dec 17, 2006 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Other Angels Top Prospects

For comparison, other Angels Top Prospect lists:

Baseball America
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/262953.html

FutureAngels.com
http://futureangels.mlblogs.com/futureangels/2006/11/2006_futureange.html

TopProspectAlert.com
http://www.topprospectalert.com/2007anaheimangelsprospects.htm

MiLB.com
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061107&content_id=142712&vkey= news_milb&fext=.jsp

by FutureAngels on Dec 15, 2006 9:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nice

How thoughtful. Thanks.

by Flynn Blake on Dec 15, 2006 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What bothers me about the Angels

is that all of their hitting prospects play in high-octane hitting environments, and it's really, really hard to know how much air to let out of the stats when evaluating them.

Wood's strikeouts should be a concern, especially in conjunction with the relatively low walk rate. 1 K per 3 AB is too many.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Dec 15, 2006 10:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mendoza

Why the big drop from B to C+?

by mckeeno on Dec 16, 2006 4:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sean Rodriguez

Hi Mr. Sickels. Never hear of Sean Rodriguez. Can you provide a brief report of why he is B+ and better than Aybar? Thanks
P.S. I see Aybar as one of the most underrated players in the minors.

by LCT on Dec 16, 2006 7:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sean Rodriguez had

a huge year. In high A, he put a .301/.377/.545 line over 455 AB's, and in 65 AB's at AA he put up a .354/.462/.662 line (granted, very small sample size). Angels fans can probably tell you more. As others have noted, the Angels farm teams play in nice hitter's parks. From what I understand, Rodriguez has a big swing right now that needs work and his D is average to below average. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Rodriguez seems like a candidate to shift, although a lot may depend on what happens with Wood (and whether or not he stays at short). I'm fairly certain Wood is considered to have a better glove.

Good talent, but until an Angels farmhand proves he can hit in the bigs, I guess I'm always going to be skeptical of any of those numbers. But that being said, those were big time numbers, which probably warrants the attention he'll get next year as a prospect.

by toonsterwu on Dec 16, 2006 8:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with Rodriguez's rating

If he can continue to be defensively adequate at SS or 2b. I hear many people saying his potential is as a super-utility player, something like Ty Wigginton I suppose? However, I feel that putting up stats like that in the Cal league after moving from single to triple-A in one season mean he should be a good starter at whatever position he ends up at

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Dec 16, 2006 9:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Aybar

I agree with the slippage of status.

by jaguar2490 on Dec 16, 2006 11:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Big gap between

where BA put Young-Il Jung and where he is here. Interesting.

by slurve on Dec 16, 2006 11:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

BA

The guy who did the Angels list at BA said in his chat that he was taking a huge risk with ranking him that high.

He believes that the kid will develop into a workhorse #2 or #3 starter. Right now, the kid has a lively fastball and above average secondary stuff for a 17/18 year old.

by gunkdog on Dec 20, 2006 10:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mount

Mount keeps moving up everybodys list, commenting on his bat, he led the pioneer league in defense for shortstopsand BA rated his arm no. 3 comming out of high school. Last year you rated him 17 at c+, this season was much improved, with glaring improvement needed against left handed pitchers, he worked every day with Ty during instructional league and showed good improvement. I think he will hit in the 2 slot at Ceder Rapids which could give him at least 10 additional hits. How far is he from a higher rating.

by usc70 on Dec 17, 2006 11:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wood and the X factor

Learning to control the strike zone can be done. Mike Schmidt did it. This comes with motivation, dedication and maturity.

It helps when a player is placed in a position which does not take them to the limits of their defensive capacity. A year in triple A at third base might be the ticket for Wood.

An A prospect normally would be reserved for a player who doesn't really need to add any significant skill to be a major league player.

by Mike Green on Dec 18, 2006 11:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs