If all players were immediately free agents....

by Galt on Dec 15, 2006 12:01 PM EST

Who would get the biggest contracts? The Vernon Wells situation got some people talking. Is he really the 8th best player in baseball?

I argued, no probably not, but given his age and position scarcity, I bet if all players were immediately free agents, he'd be one of the top 10 picks (or sign one of the top 10 largest contracts)

So it got me thinking, who would be the 10 people?

I mean, guys like Manny Ramirez and Derek Jeter would get paid more than Reyes or Sizemore for this year, but they certainly wouldn't get a bigger contract, nor would they get drafted ahead of them.

It's probably easier to just think of a straight-forward draft, but thinking about the potential contracts might be pretty interesting as well.

Here are my ten:

Pujols - still young and best hitter alive
Santana - always healthy, still relatively young, and very consistent
Howard - David Ortiz minus four years
Arod - Still one of the best
Reyes - over his injury bug, premium position, very young, and still improving
Wells - I think he'd be the highest paid CF. Barely 28, great fielder
Wright - Fielding could improve, but fantastic, young hitter.
Beltran - premium position, speed, power, everything.
Sizemore - I may be short-changing him, or maybe he shouldn't even be on this list. I keep going back and forth
Zambrano - tough to narrow down the list and pick him over so many other guys (Utley, Aramis, Soriano), but he's 26, is a complete horse, and never gets hurt in spite of Cubs' management

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Mauer / McCann?

Certainly not the biggest sluggers, but they display more than just competency at a scarce position.

by cooper7d7 on Dec 15, 2006 12:05 PM EST 0 recs

miguel cabrera

i think hes missing.

by npurcell on Dec 15, 2006 12:07 PM EST 0 recs

yeah, he was tough to leave off

but then who does he replace? I'd rather have any of the above listed guys than Cabrerra.

by Galt on Dec 15, 2006 12:31 PM EST up 0 recs

re

I'd rather have Miggy than either Sizemore or Beltran

by ScottAZ on Dec 15, 2006 12:38 PM EST up 0 recs

re

Id rather habe Cabrera than almost anyone on that list.

He would have to come 3rd behind Pujols and Santana.

by jbg3004 on Dec 15, 2006 1:28 PM EST up 0 recs

Met fan here

I am a Mets fan but I take Miguel Cabrera over Wright any day. He is awesome with the bat and improving at defense.

by LCT on Dec 16, 2006 7:21 AM EST up 0 recs

Johan and MCab

Santana would get 200+ mill on the open market right now.

by eazyb81 on Dec 15, 2006 12:09 PM EST 0 recs

My List

Pujols
Santana
A-Rod
Beltran
Sizemore
Wright
Cabrera
Hafner
Mauer
Howard

by Yakker on Dec 15, 2006 12:36 PM EST 0 recs

Ever heard of "strong up the middle"?

Why anyone would list Howard or Hafner ahead of someone like Jose Reyes is beyond me.

by Flynn Blake on Dec 15, 2006 1:01 PM EST up 0 recs

Yes

I'm quite familiar with the concept. Which is why I have 2 CFs who produce offensively (and are above-average defensively) in my Top 5. I just happen to not like Reyes all that much.

by Yakker on Dec 15, 2006 2:03 PM EST up 0 recs

hmmm

player A: .313/.425/.659, 170 ops+
player B: .300/.354/.487, 118 ops+

right. i can't imagine why anyone would rather have ryan howard.

it's a bad strategy to base your lineup on the relative beauty of a man's outs rather than the rate at which he makes them.

by overlord on Dec 17, 2006 3:48 PM EST up 0 recs

position averages

The average 1B posts something like a .870 OPS and the average SS something like a .740 OPS.

by limozeen on Dec 17, 2006 4:19 PM EST up 0 recs

OPS+

is adjusted for position and ballpark.

it's a bad strategy to base your lineup on the relative beauty of a man's outs rather than the rate at which he makes them.

by overlord on Dec 17, 2006 7:54 PM EST up 0 recs

OPS+ not positionally adjusted.

From baseball-reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/bat_glossary.shtml#special):

Using these adjusted values compute what the league average player would have hit lgOBP*, lgSLG* in a park.
Take OPS+ = 100 * (OBP/lgOBP* + SLG/lgSLG* - 1)

by BobbyMac on Dec 17, 2006 9:45 PM EST up 0 recs

I took all the qualified hitters at SS and 1B and calculated OPS+ using the position average OBP and SLG instead of the league average. I didnt adjust for park but I highly doubt it is nearly enough to close the gap.
Here are the numbers
Reyes = 118.38
Howard = 143.05

by grozzy on Dec 18, 2006 10:02 AM EST up 0 recs

Howard

Howard is a K machine, doesn't have good predictive stats, fields like Mo Vaughan, is quite a bit older than Reyes, and is probably done developing.

That might close the gap a bit.

by limozeen on Dec 18, 2006 11:24 AM EST up 0 recs

K machine

Strikeouts are nearly irrelevant to a player's value -- they're a very small negative.

by igreen01 on Dec 18, 2006 11:51 AM EST up 0 recs

Ks

Batting average and strikeouts are very highly correlated.

OBP and batting average are incredibly dependent on each other.

OBP is perhaps the most valuable stat to a player's worth.

I'd have to say that strikeouts are pretty damn important.

by limozeen on Dec 18, 2006 12:54 PM EST up 0 recs

Right

And that's why all the sabermetric research, regressed for decades of game data, assigns the strikeout an almost negligible marginal penalty over any other out in runs-created formulas.

For example, in Jim Furtado's recipe, the marginal cost of a K over another out is 0.008(!) runs. Any out is - 0.90 runs.

"OBP is perhaps the most valuable stat to a player's worth." Indeed. Howard's OBP last year was .425. So how does that correlate again to his 181 strikeouts?

</sarcasm>

K's correlate best to power, actually, and it's a positive correlation in every sense of the word.

by igreen01 on Dec 18, 2006 1:30 PM EST up 0 recs

that should have read...

Any out is -.090 runs created.

by igreen01 on Dec 18, 2006 1:31 PM EST up 0 recs

season vs. projection

I think you two are discussing two different things. My take on limo's comment is that he was referring to future expectations.

by BobbyMac on Dec 18, 2006 3:03 PM EST up 0 recs

thank you

Since we are talking about which player we would "take" (which we'd rather have for future value), I'm using strikeouts as a predictor for future batting average, which for Howard, unless he is a unique player in the history of the game, will go down.

Howard is a great player. He's not going to hit 50 HR consistently though because he doesn't hit enough fly balls. He's not going to bat .300 for a career because he doesn't put enough balls in play. And he's never going to make a positive defensive contribution, much less play an up-the-middle position. He's going to be one of the best 1B in the game for years to come, but he's got a body type that ages poorly.

Reyes is much younger, has shown remarkable development ability, plays SS well, and has ratios conducive of continued success in terms of batting average and power.

Howard may be the one putting up the nice counting stats (though a near 20-20-20 HR-2B-3B with 60 steals is nothing to scoff at), but Reyes is going to be the more valuable player when you consider the replacement level SS.

by limozeen on Dec 19, 2006 4:39 PM EST up 0 recs

re: relative to position

I wasn't taking a "side" in this discussion, just clearing up a misstatement about OPS+.

by BobbyMac on Dec 18, 2006 3:03 PM EST up 0 recs

I guess that comment was...

... more directed at limozeen's comment a couple places above, but it fit in after yours because you had stated how OPS+ is calculated.

I also wasnt entirely taking a side, just presenting data (though the data does inherently "take a side"). I just wanted to make the point that Howard was better vs. his position than Reyes.

I dont really know which of these two players I would rather have if I had to choose for the future though.

by grozzy on Dec 18, 2006 3:35 PM EST up 0 recs

OPS+ with adjusted for position redone

I found the league average numbers for each position at Lookout Landing and used them instead of just getting the average from all qualifiers. I then got the following numbers:

Reyes: 128
Howard: 155

A little closer but still not enough to close the gap.

A few interesting others:
Carlos Guillen: 150
Derek Jeter: 146
Morneau: 120
Mauer: 154
Sizemore: 138

Pujols: 159
Beltran (CF, not OF): 157
Miguel Cabrera: 151
David Wright: 128

by grozzy on Dec 18, 2006 3:57 PM EST up 0 recs

Should be more pitchers

If this realignment draft took place I would certainly think starting pitching would take a precedent over a lot of these hitters. GMs of today value pitching over every other commodity and would probably draft as such. A team having a true ace is rare and many GMs would like no more than to have the opportunity to get a proven one in a draft situation. I think a draft would look more like this:

Santana
Pujols
Zambrano
Oswalt
Halladay
A-Rod
Cabrera
Carpenter
Mauer
Howard

"Look at that, he hit the fucking bull! Guy gets a free steak!" -Crash Davis Bull Durham

by Drew Wabes on Dec 15, 2006 1:06 PM EST 0 recs

In principle

I agree that an excellent starting pitcher is more scarce than an excellent hitter.

But, for a few reasons, I only put one pitcher in my Top 10. First, in my view, there's a greater injury risk/flame out for a top pitcher than hitter. For example, if you asked this question five years ago, Mark Prior is on that list, and somebody like Dontrelle or Javy Vasquez probably sniffs the top 10 also.

Second, since it takes longer for a pitcher to establish his true level of performance, the question inherently pushes us towards hitters. That is, if I'm locking a guy up for 10 years, I want someone who's young and good. Since pitchers generally don't "prove" themselves until 27 or 28, at the earliest, that pushes me towards selecting more hitters.

by Yakker on Dec 15, 2006 2:10 PM EST up 0 recs

re

Dontrelle would have been on this list the same time last year

by ScottAZ on Dec 15, 2006 2:21 PM EST up 0 recs

is it harder to find a true slugger or ace?

How many aces are there as opposed to sluggers? I think its about equal and position players play every day as opposed to every fifth day so I think starting with a true offensive force is smarter plus usually more likely to be dominant for a longer period of time.

"Win or Lose, Still Drink Booze"

by Bud Light on Dec 15, 2006 1:32 PM EST 0 recs

That's not the point...

Good pitching beats good hitting more often than not. Also there are numerous good hitters at every position. You could draft a hitter to build around with your second pick and not sacrifice much offense. However, nearly every high quality pitcher will most certainly be gone with the first 30 picks. In the current ML environment more hitters are capable of hitting 40 HRs than pitchers capable of winning 17 games.

"Look at that, he hit the fucking bull! Guy gets a free steak!" -Crash Davis Bull Durham

by Drew Wabes on Dec 15, 2006 2:21 PM EST up 0 recs

ehh

I don't think there's any way that Oswalt or Carpenter would be paid more than a guy like David Wright. They're both older and have injury problems.

Question: Are we rating these guys on what they should be worth, or what some GM's might pay them because I think there would be some pretty big differences between the two.

My List:

Pujols
Cabrera
Santana
Wright
Reyes
Hafner
Howard
Mauer
Felix (maybe not the highest per year, but I could see a team giving him a 10 to 12 year contract)
Sizemore

by neutralluke on Dec 15, 2006 1:34 PM EST 0 recs

I firmly believe that in the current...

market Santana would be getting more than AROD is annually now. WOW!

by Havok1517 on Dec 15, 2006 1:38 PM EST 0 recs

Cabrerra/Hafner

The more I think of it (and look at his numbers) I definitely agree that Cabrerra should be on this list.

I am surprised how many people are including Hafner (especially ahead of Howard). He's a fantastic hitter, but he is physically unable to play 1B. I can't imagine someone with his injry concern being used as THE building block for any team.

by Galt on Dec 15, 2006 1:40 PM EST 0 recs

I put

Hafner ahead of Howard, because I'm more confident in his ability to replicate the offensive seasons he's put up the last three years. In retrospect, it was probably a bit of an odd choice given his age, and I understand people who take issue with it.

But I think Hafner's probably the third best pure hitter in baseball right now (yes, I know people are going to rage on me for this), and I feel like the guy just doesn't get the respect he is due, sometimes. His average/OBP/power combo is deadly.

by Yakker on Dec 15, 2006 2:17 PM EST up 0 recs

Hafner

If anything, "third best" is too low. The only folks who have a legitimate argument for being better at the plate are Bonds and Pujols, and Hafner beat both of them in EqA and OPS+ last season.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/eqa2006.php
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/OPSplus_leagues.shtml

In terms of raw offensive ability (ignoring injury concerns), I think I'd put Hafner and Pujols neck-and-neck going into 2007. Pujols' outstanding defense at 1B makes him a clearly better player, but at the plate they're extremely close.

by cconley on Dec 15, 2006 2:42 PM EST up 0 recs

Absolutely

Hafner doesn't get nearly enough respect. I'd take him over Ortiz anyday.

[go tribe]

by matt k on Dec 15, 2006 4:37 PM EST up 0 recs

I agree

I say Hafner is the best hitter this side of Pujols, the guy just doesn't get any respect. I am so sick of hearing about David Ortiz, Hafner is a better hitter than he is in every way.

by slitheringslider on Dec 15, 2006 6:04 PM EST up 0 recs

AMEN

Preaching to the choir, boys. Hafner is the best hitter in the AL, only second (if that) to Pujols.

by Rayman on Dec 15, 2006 7:02 PM EST up 0 recs

absolutely

But I still don't think he'd be in the top 10 picked or highest paid.

He's close to 30, cannot play 1B, and his elbow injury could worsen at any time.

by Galt on Dec 15, 2006 8:19 PM EST up 0 recs

My List

Pujols
Santana
Cabrera
Mauer
Howard
Wright
Sabathia
Wells
Halladay
Utley

I look at some of the pitchers making these lists and wonder why C.C. Sabathia isn't on them. He's 26, already has 81 wins, never had an injury problem, and his ERA since July of '05 is right around 3.00. He's not Santana, but if he were on the open market I'd give him more money for a longer period of time than Carpenter or Hallday.

by Fundamentals on Dec 15, 2006 1:55 PM EST 0 recs

Zambrano shouldn't be on the list...

not in the top 10.

Otherwise, the list is good. Cabrera has to be added. Possibly, Halladay, Carpenter and Mauer.

Santana would have to go for the most money. I would guess something list $ 25 mil. for 7 years.

Do you actually mention Aramis and Soriano ?

Wait,I know you. You're the guy that will never see his team play in a World Series.

by White Sox Randy on Dec 15, 2006 2:02 PM EST 0 recs

subject

Halladay over Zambrano? I don't think so. Z is a horse. Halladay can't handle the work load of 200 innings without breaking down every few years. Halladay is also 29 which is 4 years older then Zambrano. If Z was a freeagent he would no doubt be worth more becuae of age and durability.

by Josh on Dec 15, 2006 2:23 PM EST up 0 recs

subject

"Wait,I know you. You're the guy that will never see his team play in a World Series."

This wasn't meant for me, but as a Cub fan I would rather never see my team in a World Series then be a White Suxs fan. Not even a close call.

by Josh on Dec 15, 2006 2:25 PM EST up 0 recs

Actually

Charlie Finley, back when free agency was being first introduced / discussed suggested exactly that. All players should be made free agents. The players union was objected as strongly as the other owners although for different reasons.

The owners objected to FA and wanted to minimize the numbers involved so as to minimize team disruption. The players also wanted to minimize numbers BUT in order to maximize salaries for those few FA players every year.

Let'em all go free and watch salaries fall through the floor. Sure Pujols will get (or should get) the largest salary but I would be very surprised if it were $20M/year.

by prhood on Dec 15, 2006 2:26 PM EST 0 recs

What if?

What if Liriano didn't go down and finished the year 15-2 or 16-1? Where would he fall on this list? Maybe ahead of even Johan? His numbers were so sick, so head-and-shoulders above the league - its scary.

Just, what if...

Aside from him, here's my list:

Santana
Pujols
Cabrera
Mauer
Zambrano (those ERA's in that park? Sick.)
Reyes
Howard
Sizemore
Wells
Kazmir

by alskntwnsfn on Dec 15, 2006 2:28 PM EST 0 recs

BA

BA did a dream draft with all major leaguers and minor leaguers, and it was interesting to see where the top minors fit in with the majors. I do think this was done about a year ago though.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/features/261071.html

Giants '08

by z4 landshark on Dec 15, 2006 4:09 PM EST 0 recs

No Reyes

I think even after such a crappy 2005, he deserved to be one of the top 100 players picked if someone was building a team. But if just 10 franchises are drafting, that's different than if 30 guys are drafting.

by Flynn Blake on Dec 16, 2006 12:51 AM EST up 0 recs

more comments on that draft...

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/11/11/14359/960

by BobbyMac on Dec 16, 2006 2:08 AM EST up 0 recs

Ortiz

No love for Papi?

by kramerica1515 on Dec 15, 2006 4:56 PM EST 0 recs

My List

Albert Pujols
Miguel Cabrera
Johan Santana
Grady Sizemore
Joe Mauer
Jose Reyes
Ryan Howard
David Wright
Travis Hafner
Carlos Zambrano

I'm not the Z fan most Cub fans are because I HATE walks, and he's got alot of other worries, but I wanted a pitcher at 10 because they are valued so highly.

Sizemore is seriously underrated in the first list. A 23 year old CF who is solid defensively, put up a .315 EqA, and hit 53(!!) 2Bs and 28 HRs.

Cabrera is probably the second best hitter in the game, he's improving every year, and he plays a better than advertised 3B according to BP.

Hafner at 9 because is probably the best pure hitter in the league, and at worse it's second.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 15, 2006 8:20 PM EST 0 recs

On Z and other pitchers...

I also hate giving big money and years to pitchers. It's risky, and personally I'd choose to be very careful to who I hand out contracts to.

For exmpale, I'd feel uncomfortable giving Zambrano with many flaws a huge contract, but the Oswalt, Carpenter, and Satanas are special. I look for good mechanics, durability (which Z has shown, but signs are showing its getting to him), control, command, stuff, and performance. I weigh things like the way they have been worked, any "nagging" injuries that don't get talk about because they weren't on the DL for them, and so on.

It's a very complicating process figuring out what you like in a pitcher. But they are tricky little fuckers.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 15, 2006 8:23 PM EST up 0 recs

BP on defense

Not the best source to use. Cabrera is a poor defensive third baseman. But he's even worse in the outfield and his bat is more valuable at third, so it makes sense to play him there.

by jeck on Dec 16, 2006 12:09 AM EST up 0 recs

Wright is nowhere near my list

I think your list is pretty good but I'd take Cabrera over Wright any day of the week.

by wibadger on Dec 15, 2006 9:03 PM EST 0 recs

Brandon Webb

He is flying under the radar but would get some top 10 considerations from me. He is still young, just coming off a Cy Young season, can pitch anywhere (because of his sinker), and has arguably the most lethal pitch in the majors (maybe not Mariano Rivera's cutter, but at least for starters). Also, he has been remarkably consistent over the past couple years I would take him over Zambrano, and maybe even some of the other 20something aces like Halladay, Sabathia, Kazmir, etc... because of health issues. For the next 5 years, a Santana-Webb combo could arguably out perform any other combination (health is the key here, neither have had any arm injuries).

by slitheringslider on Dec 15, 2006 9:39 PM EST 0 recs

Who would get the biggest contracts?

Well, the question posed was,"Who would get the biggest contracts?" I think that no pitchers would be in the top ten. Chris Carpenter just got a little-heralded extension, for less money/yr than Soriano, and a lot fewer years.

But I don't really care who MLB execs would take - doh!... here's my list of the top ten players to whom I'd give a 6-year contract:

Santana
Peavy
Felix
Cain
Mauer
Pujols
M.Cabrera
A-Rod
Sizemore (Beltran looks good here, too)
S.Drew (a reach, to be sure, but lefty power at SS? It's him or Brignac)
Zambrano (one of my favorite players, but too scared about the injuries)

12-16. (no order) Webb/Halladay/Carpenter/Utley/Beltran

by BobbyMac on Dec 16, 2006 2:37 AM EST 0 recs

A year ago

A year ago, in a new saber-oriented dynasty league in which owners actually had to finance winning bids dollar for dollar and where there was no cap on payroll, the following players got the biggest annual salaries in the inaugural auctions:

Albert Pujols $27.50
Miguel Cabrera $25.25
Miguel Tejada $25
Alex Rodriguez $24
David Wright $24
Lance Berkman $22.50
Derek Lee $22
Mark Teixeira $22
Johan Santana $21.75
Ben Sheets $21.50

Now that's a little misleading, b/c under league rules Sheets was paid 20% more on a two-year deal than the equivalent six-year offer would have netted him per year. But anyway that was a year ago. We have another dynasty league (http://www.nqrbl.net/mmas/) starting from scratch this year, but with a salary cap and auctions for veteran players only this time. Wonder how much Pujols will get now... One spot left if you want to find out and really know your minors!

by igreen01 on Dec 16, 2006 9:55 PM EST 0 recs