Dogpile on Bavasi

by e 6 on Dec 15, 2006 10:02 AM EST Comment 8 comments

Not to add to the recent Bavasi bashing, but Seattle just signed Miguel Batista to a 3/$25. So $8+/yr may not be bad for starting pitching this offseason, but Batista turns 36 in the spring, with a career 68-79 record and career 1.46 whip.

I guess you could argue he's not that much worse than Meche (55-44, career 1.44 whip), but Meche is at least 28 so has age in his favor.

I'm not sure what kind of numbers to expect out of Batista pitching as a 36, 37, and 38 year old, even in Safeco. It might not be pretty.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AnwpD7zWr9zGoHsnFYrTOMQRvLYF?slug=ap-mariners-batista&prov =ap&type=lgns

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Should be fine

Seattle paid way too much, but at some point I guess we just have to accept this as the new free agent market.

Batista should be OK in Seattle. Gets groundballs, OK control, and the nice, big park will help him cut his HR rates even more. I'm thinking 11-13, 185 IPs, 4.45 ERA.

I mean, he's not Gil Meche, but hey, who is? ;)

by Yakker on Dec 15, 2006 12:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

IMO

He just got a guy who's probably the second best starter left on the market for this year and next, or at least someone who's no worse than Suppan or Weaver under similar conditions. Considering that someone will probably blow an extra $10M on Suppan, it's probably not that bad of a deal.

by Brickhaus on Dec 15, 2006 8:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not a bad deal

Probably one of the better moves, considering the market. Not saying it's a good deal ... just that it's not a bad deal.

I still have no clue what Bavasi's plan is, though. There has to be another move on the horizon ... right? Otherwise, some of his moves make no sense.

I don't like the way they push their players. There's pushing guys up ... and there's overdoing it. And I think they've overdone it. The only guy who managed to stay afloat, that I can think of, was Yung-Chi Chen.

Which brings me to the Vidro trade. I'm not sold that Yung-Chi Chen couldn't put up something close to a .743 OPS next year. I'm not saying Chen is going to be good, but I'm just not sold that he couldn't put up an OPS close to that and save them a bunch of money in the process. I guess, ostensibly, they could be thinking of "developing" Chen by giving him time, along with their others guys, in that, hoping Vidro can buy them time. But then, they also have Sexson/Broussard on the roster, along with Lopez at 2nd. At first, I'm thinking they'll deal Beltre and slide Lopez over to third. BUt Vidro seems to be the DH. So does that mean they move Broussard (bad deal to begin with) or Sexson? Broussard likely can't bring much, and I'm not sure what teams would go for Sexson at his price tag? I was thinking maybe the Marlins might have interest, but they'd need moentary help to make it happen. Or maybe the Red Sox ... but they should be focused on a closer. Yankees? Dunno.

I have to think that as of now, barring a surprise, Bavasi and Hargrove will be out after this season. I just don't see that team having enough. That might be the best news Seattle fans could hear in awhile.

by toonsterwu on Dec 16, 2006 8:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Adam Jones stayed afloat pretty well

by chaney on Dec 16, 2006 8:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ah yes

I knew I was forgetting someone. Adam Jones has done well, especially considering the position switch. All in all, though, I'm not sure their pushing has worked the way they wanted it to. Tuiaiasosopo comes to mind as someone that fell flat in AA. Is it beneficial or bad? I'm not sure ... I tend to think it's a negative to struggle as much as Matt did.

by toonsterwu on Dec 16, 2006 8:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, this is a bad deal

Miguel Batista is not a good pitcher, and giving him three years to prove it to you is not a smart move at all.

Even in Seattle's park, I'd be surprised if Batista keeps the ERA under 5.00 for any one of those years.

by limozeen on Dec 16, 2006 12:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

5.00?

Okay, I'll bite... why would Batista suddenly have a >5.00 ERA?

#9 hitters in the AL hit .249/.302/.361 in 2006.
#9 hitters in the NL hit .180/.229/.266 in 2006.

That's about 3.9 RC/G vs. 2.0 RC/G, or +1.9 RC/G. For Batista's usage, that's about 4.5 runs over the season. That would bring his runs/game average from 5.06 to 5.25... if he'd stayed in the same park! I think with the park shift, that will come down at least somewhat. I'm curious to hear why he'd be over 5.00 ER/G (I used runs/G since he allowed a lot of unearned runs, and I was trying to be conservative).

by BobbyMac on Dec 16, 2006 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Batista

Here's my logic:

He's going to be a year older. He's going to be facing AL hitters, who are better throughout the lineup than NL hitters, not just in the #9 spot. He's going to face the A's a lot, and he's going to be a year older, and he's going to be facing generally better, more patient hitters, so I wouldn't be surprised if he walks 100 next year. He's not going to face pitchers so I'd be surprised if his K/9 is above 4.50 this year.

When I think 200 innings, 95 strikeouts, 100 walks, I think a 5.00 ERA pitcher.

by limozeen on Dec 16, 2006 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs