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2007 Detroit Tigers Prospects

2007 Detroit Tigers Prospects

  1. Cameron Maybin, OF, Grade A- (outstanding overall prospect, just needs to cut strikeouts)
  2. Andrew Miller, LHP, Grade A- (throws hard, usually throws strikes, extreme ground ball pitcher)
  3. Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP, B- (can hit 100 MPH but still learning how to pitch)
  4. Jair Jurrjens, RHP, B- (Good arm but will need additional time)
  5. Gorkys Hernandez, OF, B- (very toolsy, young, strong GCL numbers)
  6. Jeff Larish, 1B, B- (plenty of power and patience, but is his swing too long?)
  7. Scott Sizemore, 2B, B- (should hit for average at all levels)
  8. Brent Clevlen, OF, C+ (which is the real Clevlen? I don't know)
  9. Jordan Tata, RHP, C+  (Should be an average pitcher in any role)
  10. Dallas Trahern, RHP, C+ (Good power sinker, low strikeout rate a concern)
  11. Jonah Nickerson, RHP, C+ (polished college star lacks plus stuff)
  12. Mike Holliman, SS, C+ (outstanding secondary skills but was old for the level)
  13. Brennan Boesch, OF, C+ (promising college hitter from '06 draft)
  14. Ronnie Bourquin, 3B, C+ (promising college hitter from '06 draft)
  15. Tony Giarratano, SS, C (looks like he'll be a utility guy, health an issue)
  16. Brett Jensen, RHP, C (throws strikes, projects as middle man)
  17. Brendan Wise, RHP, C (another ground ball pitcher, a possible sleeper)
  18. Matt Joyce, OF, C (A-ball performance was disappointing)
  19. Chris Cody, LHP, C  (doesn't throw hard, good command)
  20. Virgil Vasquez, RHP, C  (doesn't throw hard, good command)
Others of Note: Burke Badenhop, RHP; Nate Bumstead, RHP; Chris Carlson, 1B; Jose Fragoso, RHP; Andy Kown, RHP; Ryan Raburn, OF; Wilkin Ramirez, 3B; Ryan Strieby, 1B; Clete Thomas, OF; Sendy Vasquez, RHP; Brandon Watson, OF.

The Tigers in One Sentence: This system has two outstanding prospects at the top, but it falls apart quickly after that, depleted by the graduations of Verlander, Zumaya, and Granderson over the last two years.

Not much depth here at all. Tigers hitting prospects have a tendency to strike out a lot. They also have a lot of ground ball pitchers. There are some interesting guys in the '06 draft class, but we need a year to see how they pan out. Once again, the Grade C guys are all interchangeable, so don't get upset if your favorite one is in the "Others of Note" section rather than in the top 20. There is not much difference between the Grade C guys.

ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.

There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.

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I agree that hes a very promising prospect but..
Does anyone else get very concerned at his groundball/line drive/fly ball splits?

According to "www.minorleaguesplits.com" he had this ratio gb/ld/fb ..... 163/25/71.  Generally speaking thats 259 balls in play thats a groundball rate of 63%... its very tough to develop power if you do not hit the ball in the air.. Generally speaking power hitters hit signifcantly more fly balls then grounders.  

Just for a counter example jay bruce had a split of 143/53/124 for a total of 320 balls in play.  So his groundball % was 45%

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Dec 13, 2006 6:49 PM EST reply actions  

Maybin
He has incredible raw power, he and Bruce had the most raw power in their draft class, as evidenced in home run derbys at various showcases. I am not worried about his showing that power, it will come eventually.

by ian on Dec 13, 2006 7:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybin...
is probably the most overrated propsect in the minors.

High K's, alot of groundballs, high BABIP, and he's not a pitcher.

He's got some skills, he draws walks and plays really good defense, but I think he's nowhere near as good as his raw average and SLG show.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 13, 2006 11:28 PM EST up reply actions  

On this site
I would say that he is underrated by the majority of people that post on this site.

by VtTigers on Dec 13, 2006 11:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Of course he is.....
because you're a Tigers fan.

Beyond the tools and raw numbers, Maybin isn't all that impressive.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 14, 2006 12:14 AM EST up reply actions  

i believe
LeftyAce's point was that those raw numbers are not sustainable with his other numbers. his BABIP in combination with his high K% means his numbers have a good chance to be a fluke.

if he strikes out that much in the FSL he is going to be in big trouble

by bmxstreetrider86 on Dec 14, 2006 3:46 AM EST up reply actions  

But
That isn't true. Adjust his BABIP to normal levels and he still has very good stats for a 5-tools guy in his first season of pro ball, at least as good as Upton. And his K rate went down drastically as the season went on. The tools difference between the two is not that much, scouts have mentioned Griffey and Vlad as comparisons to Maybin, people here seem to think Upton is a different league as far as tools and I don't see it.

by ian on Dec 14, 2006 6:17 PM EST up reply actions  

But
That isn't true either (the declining K-rate part). Behold:

Apr: 25 K/75 AB = .25
May: 5/22 = .23
June: 28/68 = .41
July: 26/101 = .26
A+S: 32/116 = .28

by battlekow on Dec 15, 2006 12:20 AM EST up reply actions  

You know
Adrian Beltre had tools and raw numbers one year.

Maybin's stats are scary bad once you get beyond OPS.  He hits grounders like Luis Castillo, strikes out like Adam Dunn, and his raw power wasn't incredibly impressive.

I really like Maybin because he's young and he found a way to get it done, but right now he's like a young projectable pitcher who struck out 5 per 9 in A ball but had a sub 3.00 ERA to me.  He needs to make a HUGE adjustment if he's going to be successful at higher levels.  I don't doubt that he has the raw ability to do that, but there have been a lot of raw ability guys who have fizzled before.

by limozeen on Dec 14, 2006 3:50 AM EST up reply actions  

But...
There is always a chance for a power hitter to maintain his numbers, despite his awful peripherals. Ryan Howard is a prime example of this, having a BABIP of over .400 for the second straight season, while striking out roughly 35% of his ABs. I am not saying that Maybin will duplicate Howard's performance, or even that Howard will come close to sustaining his numbers for the the remainder of his career. I am only saying that statistical anomalies do exist, and that Maybin could be one of them. That being said, I would like to state that I agree that he's overrated and should get a B rating, maybe a B+ if I was feeling very generous.
Fire Charlie Manuel!

by zdavis2512 on Dec 14, 2006 5:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Howard
Howard doesn't have a 2+ GB/FB ratio.

by limozeen on Dec 14, 2006 6:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Howard
His BABIP was .363 last year, .358 in 2005.  He IS a groundball hitter, though not nearly as extreme as Maybin.

by battlekow on Dec 14, 2006 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Well
Besides tools, Justin Upton isn't impressive either. Most people here are still in love with him since they read a BA report here or there that gushed over him.

by ian on Dec 14, 2006 9:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Maybin
Let's see -- 19 years old
          -- has the tools
          -- has the raw numbers

I think too many people view prospects based on the question "What would they do in the Majors right now?"  At 19 you can't put that on him. I agree that he is a superior talent, and an A- grade is appropriate. This was his first year with real training--he responded better than anyone could have asked for. Let's see how he does in the higher minors.

by grinch on Dec 14, 2006 9:48 AM EST up reply actions  

Well...
I completely disagree that his A- is appropriate.

He's a power hitter who it groundballs like, people here have said, Louis Castillo.

He K's a ton.

His speed allowed him to have a high BA.

Seriously, it's not like I dislike Maybin. Theres just alot more besides raw numbers in player analylzation, and when you look past it he's not all that impressive.

Maybin is a prospect with alot of things going for him, he's got as good a toolset as you'll find in the minors, and at least he knows how to draw a walk, but that doesn't mean he's flawless. In fact, he's got flaws that override alot of other things for me.

I like him alot less than I like Bruce, Upton, McCuthen, Snider, and alot other guys.

He's overrated right now.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 14, 2006 12:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Beyond amazing tools and decent raw numbers.
This is what I am talking about.  I understand there are big criticisms of him.  And for the most part I agree with some of it.  

However people act like he should be a B- prospect at best around here.  He is underrated by a lot of people.

I think that John has his ranking just right.

by VtTigers on Dec 14, 2006 1:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Well
I can still understand an A- grade for tools.  I think he's right on the cusp of an A-, despite the warts.

I have been pretty high on him since he was drafted (and put him in my top 20 AL Central prospects the year he was drafted), but I don't see him as better than Bruce or Upton.

by limozeen on Dec 14, 2006 1:40 PM EST up reply actions  

You need to be careful
about taking data from minorleaguesplits.com at face value, especially for low minor leaguers. The batted ball type isn't always scored correctly.
Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Dec 14, 2006 11:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah but
Is it off by enough to significantly change a 163/25/71 G/L/F ratio?

by battlekow on Dec 14, 2006 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

jordan tata
anyone else feel like a C+ is too low? He put up pretty decent numbers in AAA with a 3.84 ERA. His K/9 was a little weak, with 86 K in 122 innings, but he's better than a C+. Basically, I think an Abe Alvarez type gets a C+ if they put up pretty good numbers in AAA, but I think Tata's ceiling is much higher.
when your ERA has letters and not numbers, it's a bad thing- kevin goldstein

by WakeboardJock @ Minor League Ball on Dec 13, 2006 7:07 PM EST reply actions  

Tata
I don't think it's too low as at best he probably tops out as a 4-5 rotation arm or a middle reliever.  

by BaseballJonze on Dec 13, 2006 7:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Not sure exactly
But I do agree with John that he's no better than the Tigers' 9th best prospect.  IMO he's a very, very borderline B-.  If Jurrjens is only a B-, then Tata has to be C+.

by mcq fesijiba on Dec 13, 2006 7:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Where would the 3 prospects that went
to the Yankees be on the list?

Sanchez, Whelan, etc?

"Win or Lose, Still Drink Booze"

by Bud Light @ Minor League Ball on Dec 13, 2006 7:28 PM EST reply actions  

I'd guess...
Humberto Sanchez would be a B+, and given the other rankings Whelan a B-, probably listed behind DLC and JJ.  So effectively we dealt our No.3 and No.6 prospect for Gary Sheffield.  

by BaseballJonze on Dec 13, 2006 7:39 PM EST up reply actions  

De la Cruz
I pegged Eulogio De la Cruz as a breakout candidate going into the season. He had me worried at the start of the year, but really turned it on in the second half of the season (As a starter, nonetheless).

He impressed me enough to peg him AGAIN as a breakout candidate headed into 2007.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Dec 13, 2006 7:32 PM EST reply actions  

De la Cruz
The only thing that I don't like about him is that I just don't see much chance that he can be a starter at the big league level.  But he has fantastic potential in the bullpen.  Still, the way these Tiger prospects develop, he could still surprise.

by mcq fesijiba on Dec 13, 2006 7:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with Maybin at A- but
he should be an A next year and his potential is higher than Lind and Snider who got A- and both of them are be B+ IMO at this time.
Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Dec 13, 2006 7:43 PM EST reply actions  

I don't mind the grades...
Cammy has a huge upside, however he was only a Class A-Baller last season, while Lind and the like put up very solid numbers in the higher levels and deserve to get recognized for it.  To me it's two different [A-] ratings.

by BaseballJonze on Dec 13, 2006 7:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Hollimon
I like him, but he was definitely too old for his level.  They seemed to have a couple of real good chances to move him up a level, but didn't.  Needs to work on his defense, though.  I wonder if they'll be a little more aggressive with him, IF he proves himself at high A Lakeland next year?  He has some talent, but I just don't think he's proven himself one way or the other yet.

by mcq fesijiba on Dec 13, 2006 7:58 PM EST reply actions  

Question for John
Are you concerned about the combination of K's with the 63% ground-ball ratio?

From what little I know the high ground-ball guys typically have lower K rates then guys swinging for the fences. This makes me feel, without having watched him, that he has serious contact problems.

I'm not worried about his speed or power. I am worried about his ability to consistently make solid contact.

Arthur: "Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left!" Black Knight: "Yes I have." Arthur: "Look!" Black Knight: "It's just a flesh wound!"

by pedrophile on Dec 13, 2006 8:18 PM EST reply actions  

wtf
are we playing some kind of game where we can't say maybin's name when we talk about him?  

by wily mo on Dec 13, 2006 8:59 PM EST up reply actions  

LOL
I didn't even realize I never once put Cameron Maybin, Maybin, or any type of name up.
Arthur: "Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left!" Black Knight: "Yes I have." Arthur: "Look!" Black Knight: "It's just a flesh wound!"

by pedrophile on Dec 14, 2006 1:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Gorkys
Very happy to see Gorkys getting some Sickels love; B- is the perfect grade as his performance, youth & upside make him stand out from the group photo that is a C+ prospect, but he hasn't had time to do enough to go up to B.  But he looks totally primed to make the leap to B+/A- type prospect at this time next year.

by gogotabata on Dec 13, 2006 8:21 PM EST reply actions  

Gorkys
It's hard to overlook Gorkys's talents, even though he's only played in short season.  Excellent all around tools and good plate discipline, which few Tiger hitters have shown.  He's still very young.  I'm curious to see what he can do in West Michigan next season, the league that Maybin just played in this year.  Personally, I'd have probably flipped him and Larish on the list, but only because Larish is closer and I like what Larish can potentially bring to the team more than most others seem to.  B- is probably still a good, safe grade for them though.  I for the most part agree with John's grades.

by mcq fesijiba on Dec 13, 2006 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Upton and Maybin both get A- ??
Maybin lapped Upton in the same league, yet they both got the same grade.

I know Upton is going to be great, but is he going to be great like his brother is great, or great like a good player?

by RatkoVarda2 on Dec 13, 2006 10:21 PM EST reply actions  

A Ball
At this level scouting should be more important than numbers.

Justin was learning a new position.

Justin had much better plate discipline but a lower batting average.

Oh, and Justin profiles for much higher upside in the long run.

Arthur: "Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left!" Black Knight: "Yes I have." Arthur: "Look!" Black Knight: "It's just a flesh wound!"

by pedrophile on Dec 14, 2006 1:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Scouting should be more important at this level
Yet people say that Maybin should be knocked for high k rate and high GB rate yet overlook the fact that the scouts rate his tools very highly.

Seems like a double standard to me.

by VtTigers on Dec 14, 2006 1:04 PM EST up reply actions  

One more thing
Maybin was viewed as extremely raw coming out of HS.      He hadn't seen a quality offspeed pitch according to most reports.  

The fact that he had any sort of success with that should be viewed as a plus not simply as luck.  He has a ton of tools.  Will he be able to make them pay off?  Thats a story only time will tell.  But at this point scouts really like everything they see from him and he seems to be an extremely hard worker to go with those tools.

He has to learn pitch recognition as he goes.  Hopefully that will improve.

The other thing that never seems to come up is that he played in a terrible park for hitters and was really hurt by it if you look at his splits.

I am not going to come out and say he should be more than a A- prospect but to act like he shouldn't even be in the overall top 25 like some do around here is over the top.

by VtTigers on Dec 14, 2006 1:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Really?
I think you are making assumptions.

Justin Upton was drafted 1st overall and Maybin a little later. The scouts are much higher on Upton. Yes, scouts love Maybin as well but not in the same class.

And for every time someone says Maybin has better numbers - that is when I talk about GB rates and strikeout rates. I'm not trying to say Maybin had a terrible year and Upton a great one. But I think their year was comparable.

Also - when I talk about Maybins numbers I'm only concerned with one thing. That is what type of hitter he is. His numbers scream problems with contact. I would love to hear from someone that has watched him plenty and could say why he had these splits and high K's.

But instead we typically hear comments how we are wrong. Or that we are haters. Hey, just tell me what he looks like at the plate, what his problems seem to be. I'm looking to be convinced not told I'm wrong.

ps: his numbers scream super-athlete but not baseball player. Of course it's his first year.

Arthur: "Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left!" Black Knight: "Yes I have." Arthur: "Look!" Black Knight: "It's just a flesh wound!"

by pedrophile on Dec 14, 2006 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Well
On the first point.  I agree that Maybin was considered below Upton in overall tools.  However there were more reasons than that for why Maybin fell so far with the biggest reason being the fact that his ability was considered really raw.  So teams would be taking a risk on him.

I agree that when you look deeper into his numbers that there are some serious questions there.  There are some interesting good things but some questions.

I would also love to hear comments from people that have seen him play.  I have read some comments but would love to hear more.

I am not simply telling you that you are wrong or a hater.  I just have a concern that people are disregarding that he is even a good prospect at all.

BTW I take Maybin being 6th overall according to milb.com and being ranked highly/praised by both BA and John to mean that scouts think highly of him.

by VtTigers on Dec 14, 2006 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybin
Scouts do love him. And he has great tools. And he is very young. And he did do some things well. Which all bodes well for him.

I consider an A- a player that is just shy of being a can't miss. Maybe one adjustment shy of that.

Maybin has plenty of time which is great. But he has several adjustments ahead of him. Personally I would rather B+ him for a more accurate value of where he is at right now. His upside is just as high.

Remember that "Raw" can also translate into tools but no skills. Only time can tell. Ruben Rivera, Drew Henson, and that White Sox OF (can't remember his name) come to mind.

I really want to see Maybin have a year where he shows decent plate discipline and an ability to hit breaking balls. I could care less if he gets 150K's if it's because he's swinging for the fences. That is correctable. But if it's because he just can't make contact - he is screwed. Consistent hard contact is not teachable.

Upton
-----
His baseball skills seem more advanced. Hence your comments about Maybin being raw. I'm not too concerned about Uptons makeup or being uninterested. He was 18. If this continues I would factor it in for sure.

Upton also didn't wow with his numbers. But he never did anything to cause major concern. Which is really my only thing at that level.

Because of this I would rate him an A-. If his numbers don't improve next year then his ranking will drop of course.

Arthur: "Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left!" Black Knight: "Yes I have." Arthur: "Look!" Black Knight: "It's just a flesh wound!"

by pedrophile on Dec 14, 2006 4:12 PM EST up reply actions  

thank you
Borchard had a ton of tools. Plenty of power. Couldn't actually put the bat on the ball.
Arthur: "Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left!" Black Knight: "Yes I have." Arthur: "Look!" Black Knight: "It's just a flesh wound!"

by pedrophile on Dec 14, 2006 7:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybin in person
Living in Grand Rapids I did have the luxury of watching Cam play, albeit only for one game, but in that one game i did get to see some of these tools. West Michigan has a very large park and Maybin played it well. He even made a spectacular diving catch (but it did appear that he got a bit of a late jump). His speed is outstanding but a poor jump( or running on an 0-0 count) led to him getting thrown out at 2nd. Hitting he was 0-3 with a walk. 2 groundouts and a flyout to right center if I'm not mistaken( there might have been a K in there). Overall I was impressed. He is an aggressive player, in the outfield, on the bases, and at the plate. That's how he will always be. I would rather have an aggressive player than a passive one. The most impressive thing is that he wasn't trying to be a homerun hitter. I think that will develop. And if it doesn't then boo-frickity hoo. Were stuck with Luis Castillo as everyone keeps comparing him too. Castillo has only won 3 gold gloves, stolen 306 bases, and has a career 369 OBP. and a .293 BA. What a travesty that would be. Truth be told i think he will profile closer to Mike Cameron when it's all said and done. While Cameron and Castillo may not be stars they are certainly quality players in their own right. Defense and speed are so heavily undervalued by a lot of readers of this site

by tigermeat on Dec 14, 2006 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

hmm
You wouldn't be disappointed if Maybin put up a career .358 slugging?

by limozeen on Dec 14, 2006 5:49 PM EST up reply actions  

super-athlete
"ps: his numbers scream super-athlete but not baseball player."

exactly.  are maybin's tools fantastic?  obviously.  but that and one year of weird rookie-ball numbers doesn't tell us if he's going to be carlos beltran / alfonso soriano or more like torii hunter / mike cameron.  his development of hitting skills will determine that.  scouts rated upton the #1 pure hitter in the 05 draft; maybin didn't make the list.  one year doesn't change that in my mind.  that's why i rate upton higher.  i still think he has a switch he hasn't turned on yet.  

that's just an opinion, of course.

by wily mo on Dec 14, 2006 4:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Yet for all things that Justin has..
he doesn't seem to have a very good work ethic.  If he profiles higher than Maybin I can only view that as a triumph of statistics over common sense.
Yoda

by Yoda @ Minor League Ball on Dec 14, 2006 1:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Good work ethic...
is not the question

To be THAT kind of an athelte Upton is is a sign of his work ethic.

He just seemed to be coasting, anyone who sees Upton at his even even close to best sees that he is a man amongst boys when he's playing.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 14, 2006 6:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Lauren Gagnier
What grade would you give him, and can he make it to the big leagues? Good college pitcher but how does he project?
"Win or Lose, Still Drink Booze"

by Bud Light @ Minor League Ball on Dec 14, 2006 1:27 PM EST reply actions  

No Way!
John, any other thoughts on Chris Cody?  I played Little League with him; we were even on the same team a couple of years.  I heard he was drafted but I haven't heard much since, so any info would be great.
[go tribe]

by matt k on Dec 14, 2006 4:20 PM EST reply actions  

Jensen
Former Nebraska closer. Little bit of a funky delivery. Kinda kool though!

by doublestix on Dec 14, 2006 5:57 PM EST reply actions  

Virgil Vasquez, Sendy Vasquez
Are either of these guys another name for former Gaucho Matt Vasquez?  I remember reading about Matt being a decent prospect in the Tigers system for a while...

If they aren't, where's Matt?  If they are, anyone know why he changed his name?

by multiphasic on Dec 15, 2006 12:52 AM EST reply actions  

Zack Miner
For anyone: I know he's not a prospect any more, even though he's going back to Toledo. What kind of grade did he get in the past? More generally, what grade do you give a guy who might be (and was, and still is) a solid #5 starter on a pennant winner? Is that a C? C+? C-?

by RatkoVarda on Dec 15, 2006 10:42 AM EST reply actions  

Clevlen
Dunno why, but I'm still a fan.  Guess 2007 may make or break him, but I think he's got a shot.  Obviously, the performance last year was disappointing.

by toonsterwu on Dec 16, 2006 8:21 AM EST reply actions  

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