Crystal Ball: Adam Loewen

by John Sickels on Nov 8, 2006 2:05 PM EST in News

Here's a toughie. I can see this one going any number of ways. Does his command improve? Does he get hurt? This is a fairly optimistic assessment that assumes good health and early durability, but a shoulder injury and an early burnout in his 30s.

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couldn't you give him....

...just one 100-walk season? Those free passes are scary.

Who are Loewen's comps, John, by the by? What major leaguers have had similar careers--with low HRs, high Ks, & high BBs?

by Azteca on Nov 8, 2006 2:13 PM EST reply actions

optimistic?

You're giving him one sub 4 era throughout his entire career.

Dutin Pedroia .... a poor man's Ronny Cedeno - Theo Epstein

by the pinstripes on Nov 8, 2006 2:19 PM EST reply actions

AL East

Keep in mind, he's spending the vast majority of his career in the AL East in this projection. A career 4.5 ERA, given that context, is certainly nothing to complain about.

by JeffersJV on Nov 8, 2006 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

Red Sox

Just wondering why they keep him for that third year after previous seasons of 1 an 2 innings pitched. Surely the didn't sign him to a 3 year contract after the injury writing was on the wall in Cleveland.

Otherwise everything looks pretty good.

I think that God in creating Man somewhat overestimated his ability. - Oscar Wilde

by Skellig on Nov 8, 2006 4:42 PM EST reply actions

K-Rate

Although its obvious that he'll have to concentrate on his control a little more, I can't see 2006 being his highest K/9 season of his career.

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by TheK @ Minor League Ball on Nov 8, 2006 4:50 PM EST reply actions

The card

You used the Leaf card. Very cool.

by StickRat on Nov 8, 2006 5:35 PM EST reply actions

Is he that bad?

I took Loewen on my keeper fantasy team hoping that if his control improves, he should develop (given a 1-2 year developing period)into an ace or at least a number two starter, I mean he was such a big deal in '04 and had some killer outings this year. If he only gets one sub-4 season on an optimistic projection, I don't think I'd really want him.

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Nov 8, 2006 6:49 PM EST reply actions

Realistic, but...

I would say the projection is conservative given his potential. He's pitched less than half a season in MLB and he's only 22. I've been impressed w his progress over the last couple years, altho he has to improve his control and consistency if he is ever to be a #1/#2 starter. As an O's fan, I certainly hope he has a better career than this projection.

by rhd on Nov 8, 2006 10:42 PM EST reply actions

Pessimistic

Considering the progress he made this year I can't see how this projection could be called anything but pessimistic. Looks like Erik Bedard Jr. to me. I expect his second year to be very comparable to Erik's (except without the injury hopefully).

by Harold Baines on Nov 8, 2006 11:09 PM EST reply actions

Adam Loewen

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by El Diablo @ Minor League Ball on Nov 9, 2006 2:29 PM EST reply actions

pessimistic..I have to agree

...I am an Os fan...and like many of the current young Os pitchers, control will be the single component that will decide where Loewen goes...he's been one of those prospects who will run you crazy in trying to predict where he goes, so, I sort of understand the projection in that sense...just when you think he has command issues, he comes out and has a string of starts where everything is on the black...and just when you think he's turned a corner, he'll have a bad bunch...in general what keeps him up there is his strong pitcher's build, stuff, being a lefty, and velocity...

...but, if projecting a shoulder injury that essentially ends his career before age 30 is considered an "optimistic" projection, I'd hate to see what you consider to be "bad"...AL EAST or not, Loewen has more ability than what's projected here...

by basemonkey on Nov 16, 2006 8:44 PM EST reply actions