Biggest prospect Busts?

by yondaime4 on Nov 27, 2006 1:25 AM EST Comment 48 comments

Who do you guys think are the biggest busts since, say, Brien Taylor? I'm wary to even consider him a bust for real because he got hurt and i tend not to really hold a guy that got as a 'bust' per se, but you may disagree. And i guess it's hard to disparage between gys when some of them eventually get hurt in the long run anyways after they have been busted for a couple of years.

I think my vote might go to the San Fran Trio of Foppert, J Williams and Ainsworth. Thought they were all supposed to be studs, but where did they go? And my top hitter bust would probably, I dunno, I'll throw Sean Burroughs out there.

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just a few good ones....

looking back at some top 20s from BA's 1994 on (Taylor was #2 on the 1993 BA), focusing on people who have little to no chance of turning it around (excluding those who you mentioned above):

hitters: Jason Stokes, Drew Henson, Joe Borchard, Angel Berroa, Alex Escobar, Antonio Perez, Ruben Mateo, Dermal Brown, Josh Hamilton, Chin-Feng Chen, Pablo Ozuna, Ben Grieve, Travis Lee, Chad Hermansen, Karim Garcia, Derrick Gibson, Brian Hunter

pitchers (trying to avoid those lost ENTIRELY to arm injuries): Edwin Jackson, Greg Miller, Juan Cruz, Rick Ankiel, Ryan Anderson, Dennis Tankersley, Nick Neugebauer, Jon Rauch, Bobby Bradley, Chin-Hui Tsao, Matt Riley, Bruce Chen, Matt White, Kris Benson, Paul Wilson, Matt Drews, Alan Benes, Rocky Coppinger, Doug Million, Jose Silva, Jeff Granger

the list is a bit subjective. for instance, i'm calling bruce chen, paul wilson and kris benson busts, but not dustin hermanson, just because i feel like the expectations were so much higher for the first three guys than for hermanson (not that he didn't have a disappointing career himself).

a few of the people here could still recover. a few more were busts simply because they mislisted their ages (ozuna and karim garcia pop to mind). grieve and berroa were both stars as rookies, and have busted since.

it's tough to pick a "biggest" bust, just because doing so involves a delicate balance of how high initial expectations were and just how thoroughly the person missed. beyond that, i agree that getting injured isn't what's interesting -- it's only interesting if it was a collective misassessment of the talent.

anyway, i think my vote for hitter has to go to ruben rivera. i think ruben mateo's another good choice, or fernando tatis, just because i'm SHOCKED neither one turned out much. jason stokes and brian hunter might be the most mysterious people who MADE the top 20 to begin with (pablo ozuna aside), but, because of that, i wouldn't say i ever had high expectations for them. also, what the hell ever did happen to chad hermansen? what a disappointment there.

for a pitcher with literally no history of arm injury, i think bruce chen might win as the biggest bust. because kris benson i THINK recovered alright from his injuries and was STILL so mediocre, I'm tempted to put him up there. i'll put matt drews, doug million and jeff granger as the three biggest mysteries as to how they ever got ranked that high. with injuries included, the biggest busts would probably be ankiel, paul wilson (or bill pulsipher), or one of the guys you mentioned. i think juan cruz -- though he might SOME DAY pull it all together -- might be on the list of biggest disappoints too.

by bleedjaxblue on Nov 27, 2006 3:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

busts?

I can't see some of them being labeled busts when they turned into servicable major league players. True, they never turned out the way they wre projected, but a regular is hardly a bust.

I'd take Berroa out of the hitters, and Bochard is really too early to tell. He's still a reserve, but theres still interest in him because the took time off from baseball.

Ankiel gave two solid seasons, so if you think about it, his projection was dead on. Except for the part where he had a mental breakdown.

Bruce Chen and Benson both have been good regulars, and I still haven't given up on edwin jackson.

Free Kevin Youkilis!!!

by forage on Nov 27, 2006 4:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Borchard

For someone who rec'd as large a bonus, not to mention the hype Borchard did, he has hit .209/.283/.365 and only 22 HR's in 5 seasons is bust in my book. He's 28. If he hasn't made it happen yet, I put the chances of him ever putting it to together as miniscule. 632/242 K/BB in the minors does not point in the direction of even "maybe" for him.

by slurve on Nov 27, 2006 7:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Some of these players are definitely not busts

Kris Benson, for one, is carving out a decent career as a mid-rotation starter. He will never become that ace he was thought to be, but being an average major league pitcher is still a pretty good accomplishment.

Another I have to disagree with is Jon Rauch, he posted a 151 ERA+ last year in 91+IP in the pen for the Nationals. And his production has been relatively stable over the past couple years. He is only 27, he can still have a long successful career in the pen ahead of him.

There are several that are still young and have lots of time to turn things around, you can't really label someone a bust until they are at least 30.

by slitheringslider on Nov 27, 2006 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have to say that players who die tragically

Like Doug Million shouldn't be considered busts either.

by Rox Girl on Nov 28, 2006 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A certain former M's Lefty

"The Little Unit", Ryan Anderson

by Fett42 on Nov 27, 2006 6:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Then again, that was injury

That did him in, not plain old not filling his potential.

by Fett42 on Nov 27, 2006 6:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Anderson

Its hard to say with some of these guys you know? He's one i would think twce about but lots of guys recover from injuries. So hard with pitchers.

by yondaime4 on Nov 27, 2006 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

For the A's

Todd Van Poppel
Ariel Prieto

Waiting for Travis Buck

by Furious George on Nov 27, 2006 8:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Still have hopes for

Edwin Jackson may still be something. I'm looking at him as a reliever/closer in TBay, but I saw a recent line of 8 very nice innings in the Winter Leagues.

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Nov 27, 2006 8:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Karim Garcia

. . . and to think that the Tigers traded Luis Gonzalez straight up for Karim!! Yikes! What did Gonzalez do after that trade? Oh, maybe just win a World Series, hit a zillion HR's and win a batting title. What did Garcia do? I have NO IDEA! Nobody does.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Nov 27, 2006 9:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

LOL

Us Tiger fans are trying to forget the Randy Smith years. You won't see many GM's worse than Randy Smith. He was like the baseball equivalent of Matt Millen.

by mcq fesijiba on Nov 27, 2006 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ugh

you had to go and use the "M" word. Hopefully he will be out of town soon. Too bad we can't just get rid of the entire Ford family. When is the last time the Lions won a World Championship?

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Nov 27, 2006 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

1957

and it isn't coming again soon.

by BIgMax on Nov 28, 2006 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Matt White

$10M+ bonus, top 10 status, and never made it out of AA, although injuries did have a large part to do with that.

by Brickhaus on Nov 27, 2006 9:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bobby Seay

Double those two up, there is your biggest bust. And for only about 20 million.

by drwmsu1 on Nov 27, 2006 12:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Josh Hamilton

I don't think that you can make an argument for 'biggest' bust that doesn't include Hamilton. Guys like Ryan Anderson, Brien Taylor - look, injuries happen. Hamilton just pissed it all away.

If you want someone who's draft outlook/slot is apparently completely non-reflective of his ability, Matt Bush is getting there.

by silvysilv on Nov 27, 2006 9:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jeff Allison

Same deal. Pissed it all away. He would have been a high draft pick if not for sign-ability concerns and dropped about 10 spots.

by slurve on Nov 27, 2006 10:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you

My jaw still has not closed since the Padres picked Matt Bush #1 overall in the 2004 draft (over "no doubt about it sure things" like Justin Verlander, Stephen Drew, and Jered Weaver). Yes I know there were signability issues, but I don't know how any Padre fan could ever trust management again. By the way, anyone have a status update on Bush? I haven't heard anything since he broke is ankle earlier this year. I heard rumors that he was thinking of switching to pitcher full-time (the reverse Rich Ankiel).

I've got to side with silvysilv on Josh Hamilton though as biggest bust ever. I know they throw around the "one in a lifetime talent" label every year, but Hamilton truly was it.

by fartballs on Nov 27, 2006 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Overdraft

Verlander was considered a pretty serious overdraft by many.

by Jurgen on Nov 27, 2006 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not really...

before that spring he was one of the front runners to go first overall.

by SenorGato88 on Nov 27, 2006 11:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BJ Garbe, Adam Johnson

Two consecutive top 5 overall picks and over $5 million in signing bonuses with nothing but a cup of coffee to show for it.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Nov 27, 2006 11:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Cubs Fans Unite

Futility in Championships is not the only cross we bear. The Cubs are also the kings of failed prospects......maybe the two go hand in hand? LOL

Mike Harkey
Bobby Hill
Brian Dayett
Kevin Orie
Gary Scott
Juan Cruz
Lance Dickson
Hee Seop Choi
Tuffy Rhodes
Paul Noce
Mike Brumley
Ben Christensen
Damon Berryhill

.....help me out here guys.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by HuskerBob on Nov 27, 2006 11:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

A few of these were the Cubbies' own fault.

Orie: was rushed following a nice year in '96 at AA/AAA, though he really didn't hit at Iowa. In '97 he turned in a .275-8-44 .350/.431 line with the big club; not great numbers, but nothing to sneeze at for a 24 year old rookie. He fell off the boat the next year, but the Cubs soured on him REAL fast, citing lack of power for a guy that never hit for power in the minors.

Cruz: was rushed before he really sniffed out what the strike zone was; again, the Cubs fault. He needed at least another full year in the minors.

Scott: why was a 23 year old who had a solid consolidation 22 year old season at A/AA, but was struggling at AAA, rushed to the majors? What did they expect would happen?

by silvysilv on Nov 27, 2006 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hard to call

Bobby Hill and Choi busts.

Bobby Hill = Aramis Ramirez

Choi = D. Lee

I'll take it.

by slurve on Nov 27, 2006 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus...

Choi looked like he would be a damn good hitter until people stopped giving him ABs...

by SenorGato88 on Nov 27, 2006 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tuffy Rhodes?

Hardly a bust if you consider his global stats. Sure, he never did anything in this country, but he's an international star, for what it's worth.

by alexwithclass on Nov 27, 2006 12:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not really a prospect, but...

Whatever happened to Josh Phelps? I know the answer, but he was supposed to be a 30-HR Gomes-like slugger and wasn't doing terrible when he got sent down but despite doing well in the minors and spring training has yet to receive even a september call-up. Well, at least the orioles will be better for playing opportunities than the tigers.
I'd pick my top prospect bust as Kaz Matsui, since he's a prospect if Daisuke is.

Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Nov 27, 2006 12:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Biggest Bust....Drew Henson

I cannot think of another athlete who has ever been paid and pampered so much yet delivered so little without ever being hurt. It's not enough that he completely sucked in one sport; he sucked out loud in two.

Drew Henson is the anti-Bo Jackson. Drew knew nothing and got paid millions in bonuses. The guy is set for life and his ML line has 9 at bats and nis NFL line has like 12 passes and 4 completions.

Pitchers who get hurt throwing get a pass...but not in bar fights. I would list Taylor up there. He never got into a ML game. And I'm a bitter Yankee fan yes.

Let's throw the overhyped Reuben "I steal gloves" Rivera in the mix also.

I pray Hughes follows the Jeter path rather than some of these other failures.

"Strikeouts are good...groundballs are better. Home runs are okay...but walks SUCK!" Mike Caldwell

by Torncuff on Nov 27, 2006 12:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

haha, true

It's one thing to be a big bust in one sport, but not many have the honor of being major busts in 2 major sports.

by mcq fesijiba on Nov 27, 2006 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also,,,

Josh Booty did a fairly decent job of not panning out in two sports. Better than Henson but not much.

by BoydsOfSummer on Nov 27, 2006 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Biggest bust?

Included in that Hamilton Allison conversation could be Greg "Toe" Nash. Of course his prospect status was never all that high but he had plenty talent and plenty of lore following him.

by tigermeat on Nov 27, 2006 1:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Don't Forget

Hensley "Bam-Bam" Meulens

by fartballs on Nov 27, 2006 1:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You know what

The biggest bust i think i can remember now that i am semi awake?

BEN GRIEVE...

That kid was nuts in the minors, did everything and everyone said he was a star. And BAM he just never did anything. No injuries or nothing. just never produced at the major league level.

Oh and lets not forget Travis Lee

by yondaime4 on Nov 27, 2006 2:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well..

In looking at his stats grieve had a couple good seasons early, but still, BUST

by yondaime4 on Nov 27, 2006 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Upton and Reed

BJ Upton and Jeremy Reed are both in danger of making this list. Soon.

God, what about Sean Burroughs?

by Jurgen on Nov 27, 2006 2:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Is it too early to add Andy Marte?

I saw him last year and he couldn't get the bat on the ball. When he hit it, it went. But he struck out 12 times in a three-game series and made three errors.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Nov 27, 2006 2:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

premature

IMO he could still be a soild player give him more time

70% of the earth's surface is covered by water. The rest is covered by Endy Chavez.

by Metty5 on Nov 27, 2006 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Impatience??

A 21-year old makes the bigs and hits 226/287/421 in 164 AB with 21 XBH and he's a bust? He needs to make improvements for sure, but c'mon, we do need some patience. It'll take a lot more before he's a bust.

by jc3 on Nov 27, 2006 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Marte is marginal

I looked at his numbers again, and for the life of me, I don't know what John saw in him to make him the number 1 prospect in all of baseball last winter. He's never posted OPS above .900 or hit more than 23 HRs in any minor league season. He's never ht better than .285 in any minor league season. Witht he exception of his career year (2005), he's always struck out twice as often as he's walked. Since then, his numbers have regressed to the mean. Before being called up by Cleveland, he put up an unimpresive .773 OPS while striking out 83 times in 357 at bats.

Come to think of it, his numbers for Cleveland last year should be about on par for his minor league performance, which is to say, we can expect him to be about replacement level at third base.

To go from best prospect in all of baseball to a replacement-level player is the very definition of overrated. Not to say he's a complete bust on the level of Matt Bush. But he's not anything special either.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Nov 27, 2006 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ouch

Brutal. He's still very young, has shown a good ability to wait for a good pitch and drive it. Has shown a great deal of power potential. Hes a guy that many scouts say is going to hit for very good power and decent contact. Hes got a lot of projectability in him and has a lot of upside. I would expect him to be well above replacement level.

Hes got a lot of talent. Give him time.

by grozzy on Nov 27, 2006 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Context

He's been young for his level at every stop and has an ISO of over .200 (as high as .250 as a TWENTY-year-old) while playing in extremely tough hitting environments. Until 2006 he also walked a lot without striking out at a very high rate (contrary to what you said, until last year he never struck out twice as much as he walked above low-A ball). He's also reportedly a very much above average defender at third.

It's all context.

Also, he hit very poorly at home but much better on the road in slightly more ABs (God bless Minorleaguesplits.com). He'll be fine.

by delomir on Nov 27, 2006 10:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Marte BB/K

2002 Macon A 488 AB 41BB 114 K
2003 Myrtle Beach A+ 463 AB 67 BB 109 K
2004 Greenville AA 387 AB 58 BB 105 K
2005 Richmond AAA 389 AB 64 BB 81 K
2006 Buffalo AAA 357 AB 34 BB 81 K
2006 Cleaveland MLB 164 AB 13 BB 38 K

The only year when he had respectable BB/K ratios was 2005. In context, that looks like a career year to me. Nothing in his other years suggests he has good plate discipline. The other stints, he's been around 2/1 K/BB. I suggest that that's his mean. I don't have a lot to go on as far as park factors, but not every league he's played in is a pitcher's league and his stats are pretty consistent: .280/.360/.450. A solid performer but not a hot prospect. And I'm no scout, but he seems rather small to be a great power guy and rather slow to be a great defender.

Perhaps he'll develop at 23, but he has not dominated any level, which is what I look at when trying to figure out if kid has the ability to be more than a league average performer in the majors. I take back the replacement-level talk, but I'd be surprised if he's better than league average in any of his years in the MLB.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Nov 27, 2006 10:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Um

So the steady IMPROVEMENT in the K:BB ratio through 05 doesn't mean anything? Sure he regressed in 06 probably due to his changin orgs, but i dunno i write him off on his ratios this soon since the last couple we have seen have been him in a different org and part of a year in the bigs.

by yondaime4 on Nov 28, 2006 12:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No...

Year, K/BB
2002, 2.78
2003, 1.63
2004, 1.81
2005, 1.27
2006, 2.38 (minors)

1.6 and 1.8 are far cries from 2. His K/BB have been very much above average for a power prospect (until last year anyways).

As for his size, well, he hit a .250 ISO as a 20 year old in the Southern League (neutral HR park for the Southern League according to BBTF) and .230 as a 21 year old in Richmond (0.75(!!) HR park factor in the International League). Small or not, the guy's shown he can put a serious charge in the ball...

I've only see him play a couple times, and I thought he looked slow physically, but he made the plays and I've heard raves about his defense so I assume he's pretty good.

The "has not dominated any level" point (except for power) is a very valid. It was sort of assumed that he would once he was no longer young for his level. 22 is still a bit young for AAA, but he sort of flubbed it last year. He'll likely be the Indians' regular 3B next year at 23, so he'll yet again be on the young side, but since he already has 160some ML at bats I think it will finally give a reasonable indication of what sort of player he'll become. However, I think his record thus far shows that he at least has the potential to be a very good player.

by delomir on Nov 28, 2006 3:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs