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2007 San Francisco Giants Prospects

2007 San Francisco Giants Prospects

  1. Tim Lincecum, RHP, Grade A  (terrific)
  2. Jonathan Sanchez, LHP, Grade B  (a solid pitcher if he stays healthy)
  3. Marcus Sanders, 2B, Grade B (this assumes that his shoulder injury was the cause of his problems last year. I am not certain of this grade and am open to arguments either way).
  4. Billy Sadler, RHP, Grade B- (I like him best of all the middle relief candidates)
  5. Kevin Frandsen, 2B, Grade B- (is this too high?)
  6. Eddy Martinez-Esteve, OF, Grade B- (this assumes good health)
  7. Emmanuel Burriss, SS, Grade B- (borderline C+ but draft status boosts him a bit)
  8. Fred Lewis, OF, Grade C+ (I like him better than this grade implies but he's getting old for a prospect)
  9. Nate Schierholtz, OF, Grade C+ (I keep going back and forth on this guy)
  10. Travis Ishikawa, 1B, Grade C+ (Good glove, mediocre bat for a first baseman)
  11. Brian Wilson, RHP, C+  (another middle relief candidate)
  12. Brian Anderson, RHP, C+ (another middle relief candidate)
  13. Eugenio Velez, OF, C+ (added to 40-man roster after strong '06 but already 24)
  14. Ben Copeland, OF, C+ (possible fourth outfielder eventually, perhaps should be grade C)
  15. Osiris Matos, RHP, C+ (another middle relief candidate)
  16. Clayton Tanner, LHP, C+ (young pitcher a long way away)
  17. Antoan Richardson, OF, C+ (speed demon but can he hit at higher levels?)
  18. Justin Hedrick, RHP, C  (another middle relief candidate)
  19. Joseph Martinez, RHP, C  (good control)
  20. Jesse Floyd, RHP, C  (interchangeable with guys below)
Others to Pay Attention To: Joe Bateman, RHP; Chris Begg, RHP; Manuel Cabeza, RHP; Brian Horwitz, OF; Mike McBryde, OF; Pat Misch, LHP; Mike Mooney, OF; Matt Palmer, RHP; Nick Pereira, RHP; Kelvin Pichardo, RHP; Kevin Pucetas, LHP; Sharlon Schoop, SS; Ben Snyder, LHP; Erick Threets, LHP; Clay Timpner, OF; Merkin Valdez, RHP; Dan Ortmeier, OF.

Young pitchers Pichardo and Pucetas are being considered for the Top 20; this is all a work in progress.

The Giants in a Sentence: The Giants have some interesting relief arms after Lincecum and Sanchez, but have shown little ability to develop hitters with plate discipline or plus offensive potential.

This list took forever and it is really not done yet, but I wanted to get it out there since it is already late. There is a large mass of Grade C type guys who are marginal prospects or just too far away to tell for sure. The only guy I'm really certain about at all is Lincecum, which is a no-brainer. I like Sanchez a lot, but all the other guys have at least one question mark and in some cases several. Injuries were also a huge issue. I may also be too generous with some of those C+ grades and some of them may get reduced to regular Cs later on.

Note: Remember that ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

Of course, the best thing you can do is buy my book

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re
I don't know much about Lincecum, but wasn't this year the first time he's ever had a BB/9 rate below 4 (including college obviously)?

by bootsy on Nov 26, 2006 6:31 PM EST   0 recs

yep
i cant grasp a solid A grade for Lincecum

by PooNani on Nov 26, 2006 6:37 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Yeah as good as Lincecum
can be I don't think he's proven that high of a grade. I still have serious injury doubts about his size and build combined with his reported velocity and stress he'll put on him arm during full MLB seasons. I did read on here that he was working in the 94 mph range instead of of the 97-100 mph which I think is far better suited for his stature. But there aren't many successful major league starters his size and even the ones that are his size have had trouble avoiding injury. Just a few too many questions to warrant that grade imo.

by Havok1517 on Nov 26, 2006 7:11 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

94 MPH
That was one game that I saw Lincecum in person.  Other eyewitnesses from his Cal League campaign swear he was 96-98.  I do think he works in a range of velocities and 98 is close to his max.  92-98 depending on what day you catch him maybe.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 26, 2006 8:30 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

drB
Exactly, the day I saw Lincecum, he worked around 94mph but I saw him dial it up and hit 98 several times.  
Giants '08

by z4 landshark on Nov 26, 2006 8:43 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Lincecum
One other thing I'd like to say, once again, is on the day I saw him, Lincecum threw about 60% curveballs and that was actually his better pitch.  It's the fastball/curveball combo that's going to get him wherever he's going, not just the fastball.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 26, 2006 8:53 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Lincecum
He was throwing 95-96 regularly in his first start at San Jose, but 94 was more common later in the year.  He also hit 98-99 several times in each start I saw.

by BruteSentiment on Nov 27, 2006 3:04 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Lincecum
Given his draft status followed by him validating it with the gaudy numbers he put up this summer, there is no reason to say a grade A is too high.  The size arguement doesn't hold much water for me.  Plenty of good players, not just in baseball, have been passed up because they didn't match a physical archetype - if you can play, you can play. Until he has persistant injury problems (if/when he actually does) it's nothing more than speculation and is far less tangible than the praise he is getting from scouts, not to mention the very real numbers he has posted to date.

by slurve on Nov 27, 2006 8:04 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Size
To make the obvious comparison, his size is very very comparable to Roy Oswalt, who was very underrated by scouts because of it. Oswalt's listed at 6'0" and 170, and Lincecum's listed 5'11" (although he used to be 6'0" on the UWash site), but listings aren't always gospel and I imagine if you stuck them next to each other they'd be pretty close in stature.

Remember Pedro was shipped off in one of the worst trades in baseball history because Tommy Lasorda thought he was too small to be a decent starter.

by Roger on Nov 27, 2006 11:48 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Cowart?
any thoughts on him?

Also, Adam Witter?

by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 26, 2006 6:40 PM EST   0 recs

I'm not a pacifist, I'm a...
Cowart strikes me as the kind of guy whose stuff is so marginal that he's going to have to prove it every single step of the way.  Same with Frandsen--the kid destroys the AFL in his second pro year, and the scouts are still grumbling, "Utility guy at best."  When you don't have the tools, you keep having to plop up the numbers.

Personally, I wanted to see McBryde in the top 20.  BA went sorta bonkers over him a couple weeks ago, and he does seem to be totally injury free, not to mention tool-laden.

by multiphasic on Nov 26, 2006 7:56 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Cowart
Adam Cowart is a fascinating case.  I haven't seen him pitch, but he's reportedly a sidearmer/submariner who apparently has some very unorthodox arm angles/release points.  He could hit 92 MPH over-the-top early in college, but an injury took his velocity and it never came back.  His college coach worked with him on alternative deliveries and his max velocity now is reportedly 84-86 MPH.  He apparently depends on his unusual looks, ball movement, and a lot of groundballs, and great control.  His results in the NWL were nothing short of phenomenal.  Whether he can take that up the ladder is a very interesting story to watch.  My guess is that his ceiling is as a middle reliever, hopefully in the majors.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 26, 2006 8:59 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Cowart's delivery
I'm pretty sure I read a quote from him wherein he said he wanted to change his delivery to a more conventional one. That could increase his velocity, though it may hamper his deceptiveness.

I do think that he could make it as a starter if he gets to the majors, a la Reuter. He'll definitely be interesting to follow. Does he start 2007 in San Jose, Augusta or...Connecticut? I'm guessing San Jose, but sometimes I can't tell how they decide those things.

by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 26, 2006 10:16 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Cowart, Witter and McBryde
Cowart: He had a staph infection in his left knee which was the reason for his change to this motion.  Its one of the first motions I've seen where his plant food barely moves.

When he comes set, he's bent over at the waist, almost like he's in a three-point stance in football, but his left leg is halfway down the mound.  He lifts the foot barely, doing practically a toe-tap, and then he pushes off with his rear leg.  The motion is a true underhand, dirt-scraping with the knuckles.

He probably has no more power to gain off his pitching unless he does a real change to his motion, but then he may lose his control.

I agree that he probably won't be an effective starter at the highest levels, but with his motion, his superb control and his ability to throw a couple of pitches with consistency, he's a very intriguing relief prospect.  And I wouldn't say never about the starting.

Witter: I didn't get to see much of him.  Natural power swing, though it's not heavily projectible.  I've heard reports that his defense is lacking, but unlike Sandoval before him, the Giants don't plan to move him elsewhere.

McBryde: The funny thing is, he might be a better reliever than an outfielder.  But he's a very good outfielder with plus defense and speed tools, and solid enough hitting.  He'll probably never become a power guy, but he's not the type who needs to be to be successful.  He will have to stave off lingering doubts about his legs and health after missing most of 2006's college year with a severe Hamstring injury.

by BruteSentiment on Nov 27, 2006 3:13 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Valdez?
Isn't Valdez out of option next year?

How does the TJ surgery effect his roster standing?

by Bhaakon on Nov 26, 2006 6:46 PM EST   0 recs

Daniel Griffin
You must have missed him - but hes just 22, 6'7, throws hard, and had solid K rates the last 2 years. I am not saying he's Lincecum - but hes a better prospect than half the guys on the list. He was # 9 last year - I know that he had an ERA over 4, but that hardly drops him off the map IMHO.

by tupelodylan on Nov 26, 2006 6:50 PM EST   0 recs

griffin
Injury thing there. I'm trying to find out more details about it. I bet Dr.GiantsFan knows more than I do about Griffin's status. :)

by John Sickels on Nov 26, 2006 7:08 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Sorry, John
I'm in the dark on Griffin too.  

I know Whitaker pulled an oblique very early in the year.  He came back briefly then, according to a knowledgeable source over on mccoveychronicles.com,  he developed some kind of elbow problem and had surgery.  Must not have been TJ because he's supposed to be ready for spring training.  I'm not sure non-TJ elbow surgery is reassuring.  As raw as Whitaker is, he can ill afford to lose development time to multiple injuries.  Not ready to say he's a bust, but he's skating darn close to the edge.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 26, 2006 8:35 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Griffin
All I am close to knowing is that it was an elbow issue, and that's me extrapolating from off the cuff remarks I heard.  No one I talked to knew (or would say) more than that.

However, since a lot of Griffin's upside depends on his curve, any injury will be very, very impactful on his rating.

by BruteSentiment on Nov 27, 2006 3:15 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Good Job!
That's about as good a list as anybody is going to come up with.  

IMO, you are being generous with the C+'s.  Thank you.

I would rank Frandsen higher, not lower.

I would probably rank Burris higher.

I would probably put Schoop in the top 20, more by default than anything.

Craig Whitaker and Dan Griffin are two injuries that could come back strong, but very iffy.

I know Angel Villalona has not played yet, but just reading the tea leaves, a top Dominican prospect, high signing bonus, Scott Boras throwing dust in the air..........I would rank him #2 just because everyone else below Lincecum is just so bad.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 26, 2006 6:57 PM EST   0 recs

Agreed on Frandsen
If I had to choose straight up between Frandsen and Dustin Pedroia, I'd take Frandsen.

by StickRat on Nov 26, 2006 8:56 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Toronto or San Francisco?
I'd honestly rather have Toronto's system.  Especially given EME's lack of progress.

by Jurgen on Nov 26, 2006 6:59 PM EST   0 recs

toronto
well is Adam Lind supposed to be a stud?? I am a Giants fan, but Lincecum has the possibility of being a major league stud pitcher. Almost on the basis of that alone, I would have to lean towards the Giants.  

I just dont know if Ricky Romero has what it takes to be a starter in the majors.  Maybe, a reliever..?

Giants '08

by z4 landshark on Nov 26, 2006 8:10 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Yes, but...
Look, it's kinda like deciding would you rather be kicked in the teeth or punched in the groin.  Both systems blow.  But I'd take my chances with 3 of Lind, Snider, Romero, Thigpen becoming solid big-leaguers than Lincecum getting his walk rate under control.

by Jurgen on Nov 26, 2006 10:21 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

EME
I'm assuming that Martinez-Esteve's rank factors in his terrible defense. If this is the case, what rank would you just give to his bat? Is he B+, A-?

by cinqua on Nov 26, 2006 8:49 PM EST   0 recs

No way
EME had a .770 OPS to start the year at AA.  He'll be 24 in July and a year behind in development.  Colour me unimpressed.  Even if he's healthy, B- is being optimistic.

by Jurgen on Nov 26, 2006 10:15 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

EME
I've said this a lot on the Giants boards, and I'll say this here:

If Manny Ramirez can play left field for an AL team, EME's defense is nothing that makes him a so-called 'AL Player.'

His health is the more pertinent issue, and how he'll come back from labrum surgery is a big deal.  That said, he came back from labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder in 2005 and had a very good year, so coming back from the labrum surgery on his non-throwing shoulder this year, with more time in the offseason to rest, shouldn't be a problem.

As a hitter, he's one of the best I've seen in the Giants system.  Very good pitch recognition, sweet swing, solid power that can grow with health.  I think a C+ is a low ranking on him.

by BruteSentiment on Nov 27, 2006 3:19 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Nathan Pendley
Probably one of the best left-handed arms in the system ... Sanchez and Tanner being the exceptions. He was shutdown at the end of '06, and I don't know his health status, which could be the reason he isn't mentioned. If he is healthy though, he has potential ... perhaps from the Tom Martin mold?

by StickRat on Nov 26, 2006 8:54 PM EST   0 recs

Lefty Relievers
One kid that John didn't mention who is kind of flying below the radar, but has pitched consistently well and is not old for his level is David Quinowski.  He's a small kid, so probably doesn't have a great arm, but I heard a rumor one time that he hit 95 MPH.

The Giants drafted a whole bunch of lefty reliever types in 2006.  Paul Oseguera, from UCLA, had a rough start at Salem-Keizer, but turned in some spectacular strikeout numbers in August.  Ryan Paul got a late start due to the College World Series with CS Fullerton, but he's another big lefty.  He had a high ERA, but that was inflated by a couple of terrible outings from what I remember.  He had some very good outings too.  Steve Calicutt is another LHRP who pitched pretty well for S-K.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 26, 2006 9:05 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Dr B. ...
You and I need to hit the yard together next year. Beers are on me.

I've been impressed with Quinowski's numbers. Haven't seen him pitch yet. It's tough to believe if he's pumping 95 that he'd still be an unknown, but stranger things have happen. I don't know how many people were raving about Brian Wilson a year or two ago. I really like Oseguera. He had a pretty heavy workload at UCLA, appearing in 29 games. I saw Ryan Paul in college. Not terribly impressed. Good velocity but he needs to rub some funk on it.

by StickRat on Nov 26, 2006 9:19 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I'd Love It
Do you read the Giants Message Board?  I usually post there when I'm going to a SJ game in SoCal.  I live near San Bernardino, so usually go there.  30 min drive from Rancho Cucamonga too.  I even drove up to High Desert one time just to see Merkin Valdez pitch.  Damn, he looked good too.  What a shame!  I guess just goes to show TINSTAAPP.  Lake Elsinore is withing driving distance for me too.  

I'm a teetotler so I'll have a coke while you have your beer.  How's that?

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 26, 2006 9:30 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Sounds like a plan
I'll have the make the trip from the Bay Area. I know what you mean about Valdez. I was at the ST game where they pulled him with elbow pain. It was the high (getting to see him take the mound) and the low (discovering he was damaged goods) of my trip to 'Zona that year.

by StickRat on Nov 27, 2006 5:10 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Quinowski
BTW.  Q graduated from Redlands High School, my hometown.  My Daughter is a senior there this year, so I'm really pulling for him to make it.  The 95 MPH rumor came from a kid I know who pitched for Chaffey College and heard it from some of his contacts.  Q was a DFE who played one year at Riverside City College.  My friend from Chaffey says they have a real good program there. The Giants have drafted or DFE'd several players from RCC including Ben Nieto and Thomas Neal.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 26, 2006 9:34 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Redlands High/Riverside CC
Heck of a football team you all have there. 12-0 and storming the playoffs. And who the HECK is the QB at Redlands East Valley who passed for 2690 yards this year?! Can that kid throw a baseball too?

Riverside CC is a perenial baseball power, and went through College Of San Mateo to win its last state championship. Both Scott Feldman and Mike Mooney played for that CSM team.

by StickRat on Nov 28, 2006 2:14 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

EME's health
What's the latest on his health?  Is he expected to be ready to go to start the year (presumably back in AA)?

by philly on Nov 26, 2006 8:56 PM EST   0 recs

Move them all down
I would move down almost everyone on this list a half to full grade. No way Lincecum is a full A. SF has a weak system. I think there are way too many C+ there. I'm fine with Lincecum as a B+. John I think you were very gratious.

by RMF on Nov 26, 2006 8:59 PM EST   0 recs

B+?
That's ridiculous.  Lincecum had awesome numbers, not only in college, but in the Cal League, a high level for even a college draftee in their first pro summer.  Everyone who has seen him loves his stuff.  Crasnick or somebody went so far as to say if they were starting a team, Lincecum would be the first player they picked.

I agree that most of the C+'s are too high.  The problem with the Giants system is that it's very hard to figure out which ones are too high and whch ones aren't.  Most of these kids have some upside which could surprise a lot of folks.  On the other hand, most of them have significant warts too.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 26, 2006 9:11 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

tim
in all honesty, i think if the giants wanted he could be a major league reliever (if they chose to) by the second half of next year. however, they are committed to keeping him a starter, which i agree with, and so while he will get a cup of coffee next year, he will likely be fully up in 2008.
Giants '08

by z4 landshark on Nov 27, 2006 1:16 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Lincecum
At the worst he is an A-. The California league is the best hitters league in the minors. And he dominated in it.

by doublestix on Nov 26, 2006 10:19 PM EST   0 recs

Cal League parity
Now wait just a minute, shouldn't we all be a little bit skeptical of a guy who (although he did have a great year) has only played 27 innings of A+ ball?

And this "hitters league" really didn't have any hitters in the league...
(Baseball America said in their write up that the "depth of talent was severely lacking", then cites these as the best hitters: Reid Brignac, Carlos Gonzalez, Travis Buck, Jonathan Herrera and Emilio Bonifacio)
...and much fewer during the time Lincecum was actually there.

From Aug. 1 to the end of the year:
Brignac was in AA
Gonzalez was in A+ for 37 AB's in AUG (never against Lincecum)
Buck was on the DL in AA
Herrera was there, but no ABs v. Lincecum
Bonifacio was there, but again not even 1 AB v. Lincecum

Now I do understand that it's a "hitters league" because hitters tend to put up better numbers there...It's still A+ and the hitters probably can't keep up with a high end fastball with other pitches to compliment it.

John, I would wait to see him play some ball at AA and put up more than 100 IP against a league before we just give a guy an A rating (There's no way he deserves the highest rating you can give a player based on these low numbers).  A- may be too high as well, I can see it though with all the excitement about him.

by phiago on Nov 26, 2006 11:53 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Lincecum
I don't know if I can get behind a straight A after ~40 professional innings below AA and a 3.90 BB/9.  Especially with the frame issues and delivery concerns.

I love Lincecum and he's got as much potential as anyone, but honestly, isn't his best-case scenario for him next year what Matt Garza did this year?  And wouldn't that be fairly extraordinarily rare outside of Garza?

I can't see Lincecum at a straight A and Garza at an A-.  If you ask me, it should be the other way around.

by limozeen on Nov 26, 2006 10:47 PM EST   0 recs

Well...
if it's anything...Lincecum's best two pitches own Garza's.

What a crappy system. Didn't they sign some guy last year from the Dominican with a 98 MPH fastball and a sick slider? What happened to him?

by SenorGato88 on Nov 26, 2006 11:26 PM EST   0 recs

Waldis Joaquin
He had Tommy John surgery, shortly after the AZL season started I believe

by Derelict on Nov 26, 2006 11:40 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Schierholtz
What is the story with him?  I have seen him ranked higher in other places.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Nov 26, 2006 11:42 PM EST   0 recs

Schierholtz
Nate had a terrible first half in AA Connecticut as do many hitters in the Eastern League.  He got hot in the second half.  Unfortunately, he didn't help his cause with his HWBL performance this fall.  Nate's not young, but he's not old either.  He can afford another year or two in AA/AAA.  I think he'll be OK, but he ain't ready quite yet.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 27, 2006 1:27 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Schierholtz
A poor first half isn't entirely accurate.  He hit .307/.395/.413 in April, posting a better OBP than even EME.

He dealt with hand issues starting in May, and that plagued him most of the summer, but he came back with a strong August that made his overall numbers passable.

But then, he had a poor HWB stint, albeit in a league that heavily leaned towards pitchers.

Schierholtz has awesome power but the concern was his strikeout numbers.  To Schierholtz's credit, he dealt with them and focused on improving in Double-A, and in a pitchers league, dropped his K rate considerably although his power did suffer.

I think he's one of the best hitting prospects in the Giants system, but he's obviously not perfect.  He's prone to slumps and has had injury issues, albeit he's played through them.

by BruteSentiment on Nov 27, 2006 3:25 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Response
Love the A on Lincecum. It's not just a matter of looking at his pro track record, but his three years of college experience - there's plenty to go on, and everything says he's got dominant-level ability. If he had gone 1 or 2 in the draft like he should've, the grade wouldn't be debated nearly as much as it appears to be.

The only pitching prospects who are clearly superior to him in my mind are Hughes and (if eligible) Garza. Bailey may be better but it's a very competitive comparison. It wouldn't be surprising at all if Lincecum proves to be the best of them all.

by mrkupe on Nov 27, 2006 2:51 AM EST   0 recs

Lince
I'm not necessarily opposed to the straight A grade, but it seems a tad backwards to have the prospect whose track through the minors mirrors Lincecum's best-case scenario rated a half-grade lower.

JMO.

by limozeen on Nov 27, 2006 3:19 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

My thoughts
I think the only thing I can say is that the Giants system is hard to rank and rate.  I finished my Top 50 list for the site I write for, and there are some considerable differences.  One guy that is on John's Top 20 didn't even make the Top 50 on my list, and there's one guy in my top 10 that John didn't even mention....although he's a controversial one.

I do think Wilson isn't just a middle relief candidate, but is a closer candidate and a very good one.  He has the so-called stuff, but he also has the mentality.

I wonder if it's telling that two of the top three pitchers in this list (the ones not named Lincecum) are ones with very consistent control issues, and if that doesn't rank as high of a red flag for John as it does for me?  I'm still very hesitant on Sanchez, myself.

It is nice to see Hedrick and Martinez get some recognition.

However, if I had one thing I'd argue about on John's list, it's Frandsen.  B-???  Come on.  No, he doesn't have the 'potential' that a lot people want to find on lists, but what he does have is no small bit of skills, and what's more important, he gets the most out of them, and has done so consistently.  He may never be an All-Star, but he will give some team a strong performance at second base, with good doubles power and be a threat on the basepaths, and he'll play better defense than he showed this past year.

I truly believe that, even if he doesn't have the 'potential', Frandsen will have a much more successful career than 2/3rds of this list.  And I could probably run that up to 3/4ths.

by BruteSentiment on Nov 27, 2006 3:34 AM EST   0 recs

Tim Lincecum's Durability
Those of you who are worried about Tim Lincecum's future durability shouldn't be.  

Go to www.calleaguers.com and click on Tim Lincecum to see a 41-second clip of Timmy pitching against Cal this spring.  Look at the incredible pushoff he gets from the rubber.  It is said to be the best since Nolan Ryan.  Look at how he uses his whole body when he pitches, reducing the strain on his arm.

Go to dectovision.com and click on POTD pitchers at the bottom right of the home page.  Then click on Tim Lincecum and then Tim Lincecum mechanics to see how exceptional Timmy's mechanics truly are.

Timmy has never missed a start or even had a sore arm.  In his two-hit, 18-strikeout shutout over UCLA this spring, he threw 146 pitches.  Pitch #146 was delivered at 95 mph.  The following day Timmy was viewed easily playing long toss from foul pole to foul pole.

Timmy has never thrown an inning above High A, but in his regular-season professional career, he has struck out 58 batters while allowing only 14 hits.  That's a ratio of 4.14.  We're talking only Class A here, but the best career major-league record for K/H is 1.51 by Randy Johnson.  The single-season record is 2.22 by Pedro Martinez in 2000.  The Giants single-season record is 1.52 by Jason Schmidt in 2004.  Beginning to get the idea that Timmy strikes out a lot of batters and is pretty hard to hit?

Timmy isn't perfect by any means.  His control needs work.  It doesn't appear his fastball has the hop that Matt Cain's does, which means he may give up more homers than Matt.  But his fastball has touched 101 and he consistently throws it in the 94-97 range.  His waterfall curve ball comes in 15-20 mph slower and has a tremendous 11-5 break.  While both pitches are rated plus-plus, the curve is Timmy's best pitch.  Timmy is also said to throw a changeup, slider and knuckleball, but he's been pretty much a two-pitch pitcher as a professional.

Timmy's pitching at San Jose in the California League has been compared to Danny Almonte's pitching in the Little League World Series, so two pitches may be all he needs.

The most pitches Timmy has thrown in a professional game was 94, when he opened the California League Northern Championship series.  The pitch was a high, outside fastball at 96 mph that was swung on and missed.  Timmy went seven innings, also his longest professional stint in innings.  

If not for a dropped third strike, he would have been out of the seventh inning after only 84 pitches, although he more typically averages about 16 pitches per inning.  In that particular game Timmy was more efficient than dominant. He yielded five hits, walked one and struck out "only" 10.

One observer has nicknamed Timmy "The Future."  For Giants fans frustrated with the team's lack of position players at present, that's a pretty apt nickname.  Timmy also has been called the "Freak of Nature" and "Seabiscuit."  To relieve tension he does back flips or walks on his hands.

Timmy's dad, who taught Timmy his motion and whose own motion is said to have been indistinguishable from Timmy's was once clocked at 88 mph -- when he was 55 years old.  Likely beginning sometime next season Timmy should be relieving (as a starter) the growing tension of Giants fans.  With his solid mechanics, he should be doing so for a long, long time.

If he still throws 88 mph at age 55 as his dad Chris did, he could be Livan Hernandez 33 years from now.

Those of you who are worried about Tim Lincecum's future durability shouldn't be.  It seems to run in his family.

by sharksrog on Nov 27, 2006 3:59 AM EST   0 recs

cool family
Nice to see that Lincecum's mom visits this site and isn't afraid to defend her son!
Seriously, since I don't know much at all about the Giants farm system, I have enjoyed reading the comments, especially the debates about Lincecum.  Let's all hope he stays healthy and can reward baseball fans for years to come.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Nov 27, 2006 9:25 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Brute and Shark
Great Posts!!  You said a lot of things I strongly agree with much better than I can say them.

Love the story about Timmy's dad.  Sounds like Tim is already collecting a few nicknames.  Over at MacChron they're calling him Tim the Enchanter.  Wonder which one is going to stick?

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 27, 2006 9:30 AM EST   0 recs

Thanks, DrB
I have to admit, you've beaten me to a lot of things I'd say on here myself.  I always enjoy chatting with you about prospects on the Chronicles.

Hopefully, next year will be a better year for Giants prospects than this year was, with most of the top guys suffering injuries and slumps.

by BruteSentiment on Nov 27, 2006 7:09 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I'll have to disagree
I'll have to disagree with those who claim that Lincecum's "best-case scenario" for 2007 is Garza's 2006 season.

First off, Garza started 2006 in High-A which is the same level that Lincecum dominated in 2006. He was in the pitcher friendly FSL and posted a 1.42 ERA with a 5.48 H/9, 2.23 BB/9, and 10.76 K/9 in 44.1 innings.

Let's examine Lincecum last year in High-A in a hitter's league (it's the park factors just as much as the talent, so don't give me the BS that some guys were promoted to AA). Including the postseason, Lincecum posted a 1.81 ERA with a 4.67 H/9, 3.37 BB/9, and 15.05 K/9 in 34.2 innings.

Besides the walk rate, which was respectable, Lincecum dominated High-A and put up a far superior K/9 while allowing a hit less per 9 than Garza.

Based on that information and my opinion after watching both guys pitch that Lincecum's FB/CB combo is better than anything Garza brings to the table.... it's safe to assume that Lincecum is already just as good of a pitcher as Garza.

If the Giants wanted Lincecum in the majors to start 2007, I'm pretty sure he would put up respectable numbers.

Also note how major leaguers ripped Garza's stuff apart. His H/9 ballooned to 11 while his K/9 dropped below 7 and his BB/9 raised over 4... that means you're hittable and not dominant.

Lincecum's upside seems higher than Garza's and I'd be the first to bet that his 2007 season will be better than Garza's 2006 season.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Nov 27, 2006 11:33 AM EST   0 recs

Rumors
There are rumors of Manny going to the Giants, anyone think Lincecum could be headed there?
70% of the earth's surface is covered by water. The rest is covered by Endy Chavez.

by Metty5 on Nov 27, 2006 3:14 PM EST   0 recs

no
Lincecum can't be traded until June 2007.
Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Nov 27, 2006 3:27 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Matt Palmer
From a friend of mine:  "For instance, go check out the AA, AAA and Arizona Fall League stats of Matt Palmer for me (yes, I know he was a former college teammate of mine, but the #'s don't lie).  Then let me know why he isn't top 5 on this list..."

Just wondering if anyone knows anything about Palmer so I have some ammo to smack back at him.  :)

by The Colonel on Nov 27, 2006 4:30 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Matt Palmer
Simply put...he's old.  Or at least old-ish.

At 27, that's old for any prospect.  It's harsh, but hell, there are some people on sites like this who think 23 is old to be major league rookies.  Those people are foolish morons, but it's an example of how age affects how people see things.

To be more reasonable...Palmer had a spectacular year in Connecticut, but it was the 4th year he'd been in Double-A.  It's expected that when you repeat a level, you do better there, and he's been repeating (and yes, improving) at double-A since 2003.

Also, a reliever who repeats levels is often viewed with suspicion.  Palmer was a reliever until this year, the first year since his pro debut that he was primarily a starter.  Why didn't he move up to Triple-A before then?

The answer to that: injuries.  I'm afraid I don't know what afflicted Palmer in 2005, but he missed a significant portion of the season.  It is nice to see he came back, though.

And, finally, his numbers in Fresno, while good for the league, are not mind-blowing good numbers.

That's not to say Palmer doesn't deserve credit for what he did.  He stepped in for Sanchez in the rotation in Double-A and dominated.  And he finally made a push to get higher in the system.  That's no small thing, and his numbers in Fresno were solid.

But he doesn't have any one overwhelming major league pitch, nor does he have the plus plus control that a major leaguer with no great pitches would need to survive.

Palmer's got an outside shot of becoming a major leaguer, most likely in a long/middle relief role.  But he's not the type of player that should make the tops in a list like this.

He did fairly well on my list.

by BruteSentiment on Nov 27, 2006 7:08 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Linc
Until he proves that he can't stay healthy, I do not know that we can penalize him for it.

He wasn't just good this year. He was dominant and absolutely over matched hitters at A+. That was just the start.

by yoda1 on Nov 27, 2006 4:41 PM EST   0 recs

The odds are stacked
against him. How many starting pitchers his size have been successful in the MLB in recent years? Not many. Its like picking out models that are ugly, there aren't many. Pedro and Oswalt, both bigger, are the only ones that come to mind and they've had injury issues throughout their careers. Now, how many larger pitchers are more successful? Many. If he brings his working velocity down because of injury or fear of injury to around 94 mph I think he loses his elite pitching prospect status but will pitch much longer. I'm not saying that Linc won't be great as long as he can throw the way he's thrown so far but that 98-101 mph torque he puts on his arm and small frame will catch up to him eventually in my mind. He might have a steller career closing but too many questions for me to be ranked anywhere over B+ for a guy that has only pitched about 40 innings in the minors.

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?p=628595

by Havok1517 on Nov 27, 2006 4:55 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

So what?
Your post proves nothing. There is no evidence that small size leads to injuries.

by yoda1 on Nov 27, 2006 4:57 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

There is no evidence
that small size doesn't lead to injuries either. From what I've seen, most starting pitchers, regardless of size, that pitch high velocites have a higher risk of getting hurt than those that don't.

by Havok1517 on Nov 27, 2006 5:16 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Nowadays
any pitcher in any size with any mechanics can get injured pretty easily. To discount a pitcher with solid performance and talent based on his size is ridiculous especially it has not been a problem for him in 22 years.

by yoda1 on Nov 27, 2006 5:19 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Okay,,,
name how many small framed 5'10 155-170lb starting pitchers that can pitch in the high 90's currently in the MLB. Then name how many of them have been successful. Then look at the injury histories for these players. I don't think you'll like what you find.

...then look at the former starting pitchers that have turned relievers with same size and similar stuff. I think you'll find more similarities here.

by Havok1517 on Nov 27, 2006 5:29 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

No need
because no matter what you or I say, Lincecum has always produced and will produce despite his height, weight, or whatever it is that you want to throw out there.

by yoda1 on Nov 27, 2006 6:05 PM EST to parent up   0 recs