John's A/A- Prospects

by Savoy on Nov 24, 2006 1:29 AM EST

So far John has completed 5 teams (KC, Atl, Min, Wash, & NYY). He has graded 6 prospects as an A or A-. Let's see if we can predict who will be some of the other A/A- prospects.
I can definitely see Homer Bailey and Andrew Miller.
Others--Longoria? Gallardo? Carlos Gonzalez? Lincecum? Carrasco? Lofgren? Braun? Jay Bruce? Clement? Elbert? LaRoche? Rasmus? Votto? Tulowitzki? Veal? Wood?

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I'm going to doubt that John

is going to rank that many or any newly drafted players A or A- and smartly so. AnMiller, Longoria, & Lincecum are probably about it since they at least played in college, unlike Elbert.

I like only Bailey (A), Wood (A),Gallardo (A-), Ad Miller (A-), Pelfrey (A-), and Tuly (A-). Brignac might be an A- as well. Maybin and Upton struggled and I wouldn't give anything more than a B+. I doubt Laroche gets and A- because of his injury and I think Gonzalez & Bruce get a B+. I guess it depends on the range that classifies an A from a B. To me, Hochevar is right now a B+ but was an A- for John. Its all about opinions and John's matter more than mine do.

by Havok1517 on Nov 24, 2006 1:55 AM EST 0 recs

im pretty sure maybin, upton, and bruce are

A prospects...if Tabata is, then they are sure things...

by daveh33 on Nov 24, 2006 5:10 AM EST up 0 recs

pelfrey

I'm a Mets fan and I wouldn't even give him an A-. Maybe a B+

by rdf8585 on Nov 24, 2006 2:29 AM EST 0 recs

Fernando Martinez

Tabata got an A- and Martinez hit better in the AFL I think (off top of my head) and Martinez reached a higher level.

by Deech on Nov 24, 2006 2:49 AM EST 0 recs

Tabata didnt play in the AFL

But as I said before when he was promoted to High A, Martinez doesnt get much credit from me for being in these higher leagues if he isnt at least "getting by" numbers wise. Yes he made it to a higher level but he was beyond overmatched at St. Lucie. Yes in the AFL he was incredibly young for the league and managed a 685 OPS, but this is a super hitters league.

People are better served to focus on the numbers in A ball where he had a more significant # of ABs

He definitely should be either a B+ or A-

by PooNani on Nov 24, 2006 10:27 AM EST up 0 recs

hurry retract that statement

Martinez had an OPS of .685 with an OBP of .305, while Tabata had an OPS of .835 with an on OBP of .431. Suprisingly they both stole 1 base and were both caught 3 times.

by bigboy1234 on Nov 24, 2006 3:22 AM EST 0 recs

Tabata didnt play in the AFL

the dude above me just said that, so your just making up numbers.

In A ball

Tabata - 298/377/420
Martinez - 333/389/505

by Deech on Nov 24, 2006 2:54 PM EST up 0 recs

edit

I meant "mistaking numbers" since he didnt play there

by Deech on Nov 24, 2006 3:44 PM EST up 0 recs

to be fair

Tabata's numbers were much better prior to his injury in mid July, at which time his # of ABs was around the same as Martinez. Once Jeff has the gamelogs back up at minorleaguesplits ill get some composite numbers up

by PooNani on Nov 24, 2006 3:48 PM EST up 0 recs

Martinez is clearly the better prospect imo

They are very close offensively and if you wanna give Tabata the slight edge here (I wouldn't) thats ok but Martinez gets the nod based on his unquestionably superior arm, bigger size, and the fact that he pays CF (he might move to a corner OF spot but will bring his CF glove and instincts with him). Martinez isn't a great CF but he would most likely be a better corner OF than Tabata. I'm willing to bet almost all Yankee fans will say Tabata than Martinez but he's not.

by Havok1517 on Nov 24, 2006 4:17 PM EST up 0 recs

CF

almost no one thinks martinez will play center. why should he get extra credit for being a CF now when both these guys are about projection and both project to be corner guys.

by bmxstreetrider86 on Nov 24, 2006 4:56 PM EST up 0 recs

I said he might move to a corner spot

I know you're a Yankee fan so at least try to think objectively please. Until he is moved to a different spot offically he remains a CF. My point is that Martinez in a corner spot will more than likely be a better defender with easily a better arm since he can at least cut it in CF as a minor leaguer. How many corner OFs are better than the CF defensively? Ichiro is the only one I can think of and that is more likely because of his arm and lack of options in Sea.

by Havok1517 on Nov 24, 2006 5:05 PM EST up 0 recs

yankee fans lol lol

im glad you're looking out for us simpleton yankee fans :)

by PooNani on Nov 24, 2006 5:17 PM EST up 0 recs

dude

being a yankee fan has NOTHING to do with the fact that martinez is likely destined for a corner spot. ask mets fans. they hope he can stay in Center, but its not likely

you can sit here and say "of course your a yankee fan, blah, blah ,blah" but me being a yankee fan has nothing to do with the fact that he PROJECTS for a corner.

by bmxstreetrider86 on Nov 24, 2006 7:08 PM EST up 0 recs

"dude"

I already stated that he will probably move to a corner spot but until he does he's a CF.

by Havok1517 on Nov 24, 2006 7:20 PM EST up 0 recs

then

why does he get extra credit for being a CF rite now, in your opinion. if he is going to be a corner OF anyway?

its nice to play center in the majors, but if he isnt going to play that spot in the majors then does it matter if he is a CF now?

by bmxstreetrider86 on Nov 24, 2006 8:15 PM EST up 0 recs

His point

is that Martinez is better defensively than Tabata, as evidenced by the fact that the vast majority of CFs (and CF prospects) have better range than corner OFs (and corner OF prospects). Both project to be corner OFs, Martinez projects to be a distinctly better corner OF.

by mroak89 on Nov 26, 2006 6:33 PM EST up 0 recs

Although

that isn't to say I necessarily agree with it.

by mroak89 on Nov 26, 2006 6:35 PM EST up 0 recs

haha

well to address each part, since i just put together the numbers leading into the futures game when he got hurt and hit under .200 with no power afterwards

Tabata: 293 ABs - .321/.380/.454 - 28/56 BB/K - 8.7 BB% - 17.4 K% - 29.8 XBH% - .384 BABIP

Martinez: 192 ABs - .333/.382/.505 - 15/36 BB/K - 7.2 BB% - 17.4 K% - 32.8 XBH% - .391 BABIP

Tabata with better plate discipline, Martinez with better power but in much fewer ABs. Tabata started the year with a 2/20 BB/K but tons of power, but sacrificed power for discipline going through May and June. Martinez i think should get a slight edge here but its close

As for the rest of your point

Armwise, Tabata i know has a plus arm in RF, and going through all the scouting reports ive seen from BA on Martinez, i see "solid arm strength" from the 06 book, nothing in the AFL top 20 about it, and the SAL top 20 it says "plus arm". Your "unquestionably superior arm" comment is laughable unless you have a ton of firsthand experience to go against this
Bigger size, Martinez is 6'0, and Tabata is 5'11. Wowie.
The CF glove and instincts comment is hilarious to be honest. Both Tabata and Martinez were CF to start the year, and both writeups in BA's 06 book said that they were center fielders who were headed to the corners at some point. The AFL top 20 said that Martinez's only lacking tool is speed, and that he lacks the first step and range to play CF. Tabata already was moved to RF this season because he profiles best there and Austin Jackson needed to play center. I mean, I guess maybe if Tabata left his "CF Glove" back in Venezuela and Martinez kept his he would be inequal, but id be hard pressed to see why Tabata would be a clearly inferior corner OF to Martinez.

Hell, look at the defensive range numbers care of minorleaguesplits

Tabata in RF - +1 -- +3 / 150
Martinez in CF - -7 -- -16 / 150

I'm willing to bet almost all Mets fans will say Martinez than Tabata but he's not....they're pretty damn equal! BA rated Tabata over Martinez in their top 20 for the SAL, but we'll see how it shakes out with the top 50

by PooNani on Nov 24, 2006 5:14 PM EST up 0 recs

I know

you're a Yankee fan too but thats fine. Fernando is 25 pounds bigger as well as an inch taller at age 18. I hope both grow but Tabata already is behind Martinez in that regard. You should really do some research on Martinez's arm. It has been compared to Vlad/Mondesi/Guillen in terms of arm strength. Coincidently, one of the few guys thats might have a better arm than Martinez's is his fellow Met organizational member Carlos Gomez. I'm not knocking Tabata just stating that Martinez has the better arm and more than likely will be the better defender.

by Havok1517 on Nov 24, 2006 5:36 PM EST up 0 recs

Interesting

Tabata is up to around 180-185 now so i'm doubting that one or two inches is going to make or break him hahaha
I did research, i looked at 4 different sources and nothing spoke of a make or break type of arm. Just solid arm strength. If you'd like to cite something that would be nice because ive cited plenty so it's not as if im pulling it out of my ass
Again, no real evidence of Fernando being a better corner defender than Tabata. Tabata is faster though.

by PooNani on Nov 24, 2006 6:03 PM EST up 0 recs

Sure

Can you please cite soemthing concrete wher it says Tabata doesn't weigh 160 like he did to start the year?

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061124&content_id=1745768&vkey=hotstove 2006&fext=.jsp

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/sports/baseball/15239362.htm?source=rss&channel=philly_baseball

by Havok1517 on Nov 24, 2006 6:32 PM EST up 0 recs

I'm no genius

but I'd be willing to bet a 5'11" 17/18 year old kid has put on some weight since he was listed and 15-20 lbs isn't out of the question.

by slurve on Nov 24, 2006 6:54 PM EST up 0 recs

And...

I gotta claim BS here. The 1st link isn't even about Martinez and in the second...

"Martinez's cannon of an arm was compared to the golden gun of Raul Mondesi. His batting stroke? Well, the name of Ted Williams was invoked."

Sounds like some hype peice to me - sports-writers never do that do they? No scout was credited for that and the Ted Williams comp makes yuou realize the Mondesi comp should be taken with a grain of salt.

by slurve on Nov 24, 2006 7:00 PM EST up 0 recs

sorry

that link for another post.

Here is the one I meant to post.

http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/story/8638439/rss

by Havok1517 on Nov 24, 2006 7:23 PM EST up 0 recs

That's better

I'm not 100% convinced (you see a lot of that stuff when foreign players gets signed) - but it's better than Conlin. He seems Mariotti-like to me and that guy will about anything to sell a paper.

by slurve on Nov 24, 2006 7:29 PM EST up 0 recs

winter ball...

I was comparing there winter ball numbers not which one played were. And obviously Tabata did better in winter ball.

by bigboy1234 on Nov 24, 2006 4:33 PM EST up 0 recs

Winter Ball Comparisons

Well, that's a silly comparison especially since you didn't list which league Tabata played in. Apples and oranges.

by Lunkwill Fook on Nov 24, 2006 5:01 PM EST up 0 recs

agreed

winter league numbers should never be used as a measuring stick

by PooNani on Nov 24, 2006 5:16 PM EST up 0 recs

Agreed

Last year, Anderson Hernandez hit well over .300 in the Dominican. And that boy couldn't get a hit if his mommy paid the pitcher.

by Lunkwill Fook on Nov 24, 2006 5:27 PM EST up 0 recs

Cutch

Andrew McCutchen

by eastin on Nov 24, 2006 11:27 AM EST 0 recs

Another one. . .

What about Kershaw? Should he be an A/A-?

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Nov 24, 2006 5:35 PM EST 0 recs

by VtTigers on Nov 26, 2006 4:09 PM EST up 0 recs

Last year for M's prospects

John had Jeff Clement at A- and Adam Jones at B+. Clement didn't help out his case much at AAA Tacoma this year, but Adam Jones has stepped it up even more.

I find it distressing how low some prospect lists have put Adam Jones.

by TIF on Nov 25, 2006 7:09 PM EST 0 recs