2007 New York Yankees Prospects

by John Sickels on Nov 21, 2006 6:40 PM EST in News Comment 65 comments

Phil Hughes, RHP, Grade A (best pitching prospect in baseball)
Jose Tabata, OF, Grade A- (still just 18 years old)
Joba Chamberlain, RHP, Grade B (B+ if he proves he's healthy)
Tyler Clippard, RHP, Grade B (adjusted well to Double-A)
Dellin Betances, RHP, Grade B (Potential B+/A- but I want to see full-season numbers)
J. Brent Cox, RHP, Grade B (Personally, I think he can close)
George Kontos, RHP, Grade B- (Underrated, deserves more attention)
Christian Garcia, RHP, Grade B- (potential B+ if healthy)
Ian Kennedy, RHP, Grade B- (potential B/B+ if he can regain '05 form)
Tim Norton, RHP, Grade B- (Underrated, deserves more attention)
Brett Gardner, OF, Grade C+ (lack of power keeps him out of my top 10)
Darrell Rasner, RHP, Grade C+ (Should be decent but not terrific)
Mark Melancon, RHP, C+ (would be Grade B if healthy)
Jeff Marquez, RHP, C+ (high-ceiling sinkerball guy, possibly underrated in this spot)
Zach McAllister, RHP, C+ (promising young arm)
Chase Wright, LHP, C+ (sleeper just added to 40-man roster)
Mitch Hilligoss, SS, C+ (interesting contact hitter)
Francisco Cervelli, C, C+ (good glove, hit well in the NY-P)
T.J. Beam, RHP, C (serviceable relief arm)
Eric Duncan, 1B, C (fading but still young enough to rebound)

Others: Tim Battle, OF; Josue Calzado, OF; Reegie Corona, SS; Colin Curtis, OF; Shelly Duncan, OF: Cody Ehlers, 1B; Austin Jackson, OF; Jeff Karstens, RHP; Wilmer Pino, 2B; Bronson Sardina, OF; Brett Smith, RHP; Steven White, RHP.

Note that this list does NOT include Humberto Sanchez and Kevin Whelan. I haven't written their comments or graded them yet. Both would rank in the Top 20 and probably the Top 10 but until I actually grade them I'm not sure where.

The Yankees in One Sentence: They are short of hitters, but have collected a strong group of young pitchers over the last couple of seasons.

As you can see from the comments above, several of these guys would end up with higher grades under the right circumstances in '07, proving health in most cases. Chamberlain/Clippard/Betances are all very close and it all depends on what you want to emphasize. . .Chamberlain's power stuff? Clippard's polish and Double-A experience? Betances' long-term potential? I also like B- sleepers Kontos and Norton, enough that I might have overrated them a tad, but I'm going to be aggressive about them for now.

Note: Remember that ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+ range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

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Comments

Good stuff

I agree for the most part. I like Kontos a lot and would place him in the Top 10, if not the Top 15. I do think Norton is a bit high (I like him even more than Kontos, but I think potential/upside wise, Norton isn't that high).

Good call on Pino and Calzado.

by 12to6 on Nov 21, 2006 6:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Few thoughts..

Duncan is way too low. Probably 12-13 for me.

Tabata is also ranked too high. I'd think B+ or so for him would be what is expected. He is not an A- prospect...yet.\

Lastly, I'd put Clippard over Joba. Joba is overweight and frankly, I didn't see anything I liked when I saw him pitch, whereas Clippard is a stud.

by ISC on Nov 21, 2006 6:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Don't know

Where you get the last statement. Trust me, there is no bigger Clippard fan than me, but even I can see that Joba's stuff is better than Clip's. Clip has performed very, very well, but if you factor in ceiling, Joba's is higher. Maybe a 3, 3A would be better?

by 12to6 on Nov 21, 2006 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Duncan

Had another terrible year and is playing lousy in winter ball.

Big disappointment.

Gotta love the power and plate disc but at the end of the day, if you can't put the bat on the ball, not much else matters.

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Nov 21, 2006 9:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Terrible?

.840 OPS in AA at 21 is not terrible.

he didn't do well in winterball that's for sure though.

I fully expect his average to shoot up considerablly next year if nothing else.

by RollingWave on Nov 21, 2006 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Marquez

I'm guessing you dont know anything about him if you're saying he "could be like rasner". Marquez has a bowling ball-like sinker that sits 92-94 and a good changeup but has inconsistency with his command. Rasner is a throwaway from the Nationals who barely gets his fastball in the 90s and is all about spotting his pitches

by PooNani on Nov 21, 2006 6:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Switch

I, too, would put Marquez over Rasner.

by 12to6 on Nov 21, 2006 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

rasner

I need to change that. My recollection of Rasner from seing him pitch was that he was a sinkerball guy, and I knew Marquez was. But checking the 2006 GB/FB ratio, Rasner was more of a fly ball guy this year. So I will fix that.

by John Sickels on Nov 21, 2006 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he was supposed to be

but everytime ive seen him pitch hes been pretty straight. marquez on the other hand has ungodly G/Fs going through the minors

by PooNani on Nov 21, 2006 8:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

marquez

Yeah, I saw those ratios. My mistake was not checking Rasner's and just assuming that what I saw him do in the past he did again this year.

by John Sickels on Nov 21, 2006 8:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Boom

Marquez is getting bombed in winter ball.
7.08 ERA
1.60 WHIP

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Nov 21, 2006 9:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yea

but he was also the 4th rated prospect in the HBL by BA

his numbers will always look bad because of his extreme GB tendencies

by bmxstreetrider86 on Nov 21, 2006 10:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Marquez

groundballs are one thing.

lots of runs are another.

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Nov 21, 2006 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

GBs lead to hits

which lead to runs...until you get in front of a serviceable defense. I haven't done the research yet, but it seems that GB pitchers have underrated performances in the minors due to this as minor league playing surfaces are rough and the fielders are...not great.

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Nov 21, 2006 10:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks

fabian for the backup. i couldnt have said it better myself

by bmxstreetrider86 on Nov 22, 2006 1:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Questions.

What makes you so high on Norton and Kontos?

Also, what makes you think Cox can close?

Not that I'm arguing, just asking for clarification.

by abbreviatedman on Nov 21, 2006 6:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

stuff

Well, I can't give EVERYTHING away...read the book to find out about Norton and Kontos.

I think Cox can close because he is a ground ball pitcher with good control and the type of "intangibles" that scouts like in a closer. Not sabermetric, I know. But you don't have to be a 97 MPH dominator to close if you know how to pitch and keep the ball down.

by John Sickels on Nov 21, 2006 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Trevor Hoffman says hello

Keith Foulke says hi too

"Strikeouts are good...groundballs are better. Home runs are okay...but walks SUCK!" Mike Caldwell

by Torncuff on Nov 27, 2006 9:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sleeper

Daniel McCutchen - started out in short-season, but was promoted to Charleston and held his own before being sent on "hiatus". He has a lot of potential and could be a quick mover.

by 12to6 on Nov 21, 2006 6:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Stats

Pitched in the Sally: 21IP, 2.14ERA, 13H, 5/18 BB/K, .186 Opp. Avg.

by 12to6 on Nov 21, 2006 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Daniel McCutchen

The guy is 24 and pitching in low A. Maybe he'll make the bigs by his 30th birthday.

Sleeper is right.

zzzzzzzz

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Nov 21, 2006 9:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2006

draftee.

Where do you want him to pitch right after the draft? AA?

by 12to6 on Nov 21, 2006 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

draftee

My point is that he is 24 and has pretty much no professional experience.

Not a prospect in my book.

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Nov 21, 2006 10:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

McCutchen

No sh-t he doesn't have much pro experience, he was just drafted. You this dense?

by albo4lyfe on Nov 21, 2006 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

24 yrs old

So is he retarded?
I graduated college at 22.
If he is 24 he should be advanced enough to start at high A.
Not a prospect.

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Nov 22, 2006 3:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

He was drafted 3 years straight but didn't sign. He could've started at Hi-A, you'll have to ask the Yanks as to why they started him in SS and moved him to Low-A. He'll start next year in Hi-A(after returning from suspension) and should finish the year in AA.

by albo4lyfe on Nov 22, 2006 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why did he start at GCL

That is sort of the point - the Yanks obviously did not think that much of him otherwise they would have started him at Staten Island with a move to bumping him to Tampa ASAP.

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Nov 22, 2006 8:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re

Uhmm, they didn't start him in the GCL. He started at SS and moved up to Low-A.

by albo4lyfe on Dec 4, 2006 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Norton and Kevin Whelan

I completely agree with you on Norton. He was one of my favorite second-tier pitchers from last year's draft class. He has solid middle-rotation potential. Also, with the acquisition of Kevin Whelan, I think he needs to be considered a Top 10 prospect. I see him at #5.

by StickRat on Nov 21, 2006 7:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

John, can you comment a little more

on where you think the Yankees system ranks through MLB now? It's clearly on the rise and looks like it could potentially have one of the deepest sets of arms in the league. Also, are you going to skip Jesus Montero this time around? Have you heard anything about him?

by SirCaptain on Nov 21, 2006 7:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Also, you forgot the guys from the Tigers

Humberto Sanchez and Kevin Whelan in particular.

by SirCaptain on Nov 21, 2006 7:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

montero

Yeah, I don't think I will put Montero in the book. Just not enough data to go on. Haven't done system rankings yet. . .not enough time, but the Yanks have clearly improved.

I like Whelan a lot but I haven't accounted for a bunch of trades just yet.

by John Sickels on Nov 21, 2006 7:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

stuff

Yes, this list was rushed, which is why I hadn't done Whelan or Sanchez yet. But I didn't want to put it off until Wednesday.

by John Sickels on Nov 21, 2006 7:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's cool

thanks for all the work in any case--I'll certainly be getting the book for the final numbers.

by SirCaptain on Nov 21, 2006 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

dear john

i think you should cut melancon some slack on the elbow, TJ is pretty much standard and this guy is a stud- plus stuff, plus control, GB tendencies, and good minor league numbers in a SSS but doing it while injured. id love to see what he can do when he is 100%. just one mans humble opinion.

have a great thanksgiving and thanks for all the great work!

by bmxstreetrider86 on Nov 21, 2006 7:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Tim Battle

I haven't published all of these numbers yet, but based on 2006 performance, Tim Battle was the best defensive corner outfielder in all of baseball, and it wasn't terribly close.

Defensive metrics are problematic, and there's plenty of luck involved, but Battle's defensive stats are kinda like Kouzmanoff hitting .389 in Double-A ...you don't know just how good that makes him, but you can be pretty sure he's good.

Brew Crew Ball
Minor League Splits

by jeffbcb on Nov 21, 2006 7:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hey Jeff

Any idea when these numbers are gonna be out? I saw you gave a headstart to the Sox and Mets fans, and im feeling very slighted hahaha

by PooNani on Nov 21, 2006 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gardner

Would love to know how Gardner did.

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Nov 21, 2006 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A sleeper

Angel Reyes. Young lefty, who throws in the low-90s, touching 95, good change, improving curve and put up great numbers in rookie league.

by albo4lyfe on Nov 21, 2006 8:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting that...

the Yankees only have 1 LHP (Wright) on their prospect charts.

by Havok1517 on Nov 21, 2006 8:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

True

We're really lacking in left-handed pitching and catching.

by albo4lyfe on Nov 21, 2006 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and hitters...

Yankees need impact hitters to complete the system. They made some interesting signing of hitters in the international signings...we'll see how they fare

by yanksfan6129 on Nov 21, 2006 8:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hitters

I'm not really worried about the lack of hitters(excluding C's) because there won't be many openings soon and we can get them via free agency. But we do need a catcher, a good one, soon... I don't know if any good ones will be available in the near future in free agency. Need lefty pitching, too.

by albo4lyfe on Nov 21, 2006 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Montero at catcher looks promising though maybe not immediate.

by Havok1517 on Nov 21, 2006 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Montero

He'll probably have to move off C to 1B, though.

by albo4lyfe on Nov 21, 2006 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Montero

All we know about Montero is that he is big, strong and can hit a BP fastball a mile.

Until we see him against live pitching, he is an interesting gamble of Mr. Steinbrenner's money.

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Nov 21, 2006 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

On the bright side

This IS the Yankees, they can fill holes with FAs quite easily and they also have montary advantage in trades, so as long as the overall system is good enough, the balance is not as big of a factor.

Though yes, to sum up the Yankee farm system it's basically : lots and lots of RHPs

by RollingWave on Nov 21, 2006 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wright

He is the only lefty and not that great at that.
Did very well at Hi A but was only 23 and did not have a ton of strikeouts.
Only 1 HR all year? If true, quite impressive.

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Nov 21, 2006 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eric Duncan

Why is he so low? Made huge strides in the plate discipline department and his power is finally showing through. .248/.355/.485 with a 32/38 K/BB is exciting for a 21 year old in AA, IMHO.

by limozeen on Nov 21, 2006 9:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I'd say he's a C+/B- prospect right now, probably more of a C+. The power and plate discipline are there and he is still just 21. I don't think he'll be a really good player, but he's still got a chance to be a decent bat.

by jc3 on Nov 22, 2006 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hughes

Honestly, an 'A' for Hughes seems excessive to me. Yes, he's the best pitching prospect in baseball, but when I think of an 'A' prospect, I think of someone like Liriano.

Hughes was great at AA, (2.25 ERA, 10.71 K/9 and 2.48 BB/9), but Liriano was better at AAA (1.78 ERA, 11.08 K/9 and 2.37). Thus clearly a level of prospect exists above Hughes - someone who was as good or slightly better, and did at AAA instead of AA. Given that John doesn't give out A+ grades, it makes sense to differentiate between guys like Liriano, who was a pretty damn good bet to immediately step up and be an above average pitcher, and Hughes, who in spite of being the best pitching prospect in baseball, hasn't been quite as good, and hasn't done it at the same levels.

The only way to do that that I see is to give Hughes an A-. It's not anything against Hughes, it's just that the grading system seems to need room for a level of prospect above even Hughes.

by bibigon on Nov 21, 2006 9:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well

I don't think you have to shift the whole grading scale down for a few exceptional prospects. As for distinguishing between A+ and A prospects...that's why John writes comments and makes top hitter/pitcher lists. Also, I would argue Liriano didn't warrant an A+ for the injury concerns.

by limozeen on Nov 21, 2006 9:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not to Mention.....

Hughes pitched at AA in May and June(at 19) before turning 20 on June 24th. I'm sure if Hughes had a full season at AA and now being adjusted, he could post simular stats. Take a look at his stats after May(after his first five starts at Double-A). 1.67 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 11.80 K/9 in 86.2 innings after 16 starts.
Not to mention a mere five homeruns allowed all season in 152 total innings and only one homerun allowed before this season even started.

by Tabata Time on Nov 21, 2006 9:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not an A?

Hughes has a career ERA of 2.13 and a 269:54 K:BB in 237 IP and will start his Triple-A debut as a 20-year-old. Forget about comps, that says A prospect. In perspective, Pedro Martinez has had a better career than Mike Mussina but they're both A pitchers.

by blackoutyears on Dec 11, 2006 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also

Liriano also pitched in AA last year and his stats weren't nearly as good as Hughes were this year. Of course, I'm not saying that Hughes will be better - Liriano's potential was/is certainly higher than Hughes's. Yet, you cannot look at Liriano's AAA numbers in a vacuum. In 2005, he was great at Rochester but not great at New Britain. Comparatively, I think Liriano's season last year was about equal to Hughes's season this year. And, Liriano's edge in potential is offset by his injury risk. Right now I think that Hughes should be held in the same regard as Liriano before this season.

by Dfarth on Nov 21, 2006 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Other Interesting Prospects

Jared Greenwood
23 yr old catcher
.256/.341/.492/13 HR/195 ABs
A bit long in the tooth for Hi A and he strikes out a bit but has nice plate discipline and power for a catcher.

Gerardo Rodriguez
19 yr old catcher
.256/.341/.492 in GCL

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Nov 21, 2006 9:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Beefs with Ratings

Overall - you were pretty generous. I guess us looney Yankee fans have not much to complain about ;-)

Tabata - I'd say too high given where he is although he certainly is exciting. B+

Clippard - if you look at the second half of his season, he was awesome. Not sure why but he can pitch (we all know his stuff is not great). B+

Gardner - How much did the Dodgers pay Pierre, Mr. no walk, .330 OBP CF? I'd say power is not required to be a highly desireable CF. Gardner is an OBP machine. B

Norton - beat up on a bunch of kids at 23 - let's see how he does at Tampa before getting too far ahead of ourselves. A sexy pick though. C+

Corona - held his own at low and high A, decent plate discipline, middle IF - should at least make the list. C+

Pino - nice numbers at Staten Island let's see how he does next year.

Hilligoss - 21 yr old in Staten Island - I like his plate discipline but don;t get how you can rank him ahead of Corona (2 yrs younger, 1/2 levels higher) and Pino (better numbers, year younger). C

I am sure that Duncan appreciates being on th elist for old time's sake. Major disappointment.

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Nov 21, 2006 9:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nunez and Nacci

Has the leftside IF combo of SS Eduardo Nunez and 3B Marcos Vechionacci completely fallen out of favor?

by Stephcaflowne on Nov 21, 2006 10:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nunez and Vech

Y and justifiably so.

Toolsy but not great baseball players.

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Nov 21, 2006 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the yanks

completely messed with nunez by sending him to A+. lets see what he does next year before writing him off. he was 19 all year last year

vechi had a decent season in low-A, the yanks messed with his swing a bit but he had some nice plate discipline when he went down plus he turned 20 during the season. too early to write him off

by bmxstreetrider86 on Nov 22, 2006 1:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Others

Beam top 20 and Veres not even a mention? I like Veres better personally.

Others who could be "others": Ed Nunez, Luis Nunez, Francisco Castillo, Wangel Baez, Angel Reyes, maybe Josh Schmidt and Jason Stephens. I've given up on Vech.

Someone mentioned Greenwood but he's not actually a catcher right? Most of what I saw he was DHing.

by APNY on Nov 22, 2006 1:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs