Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects for 2007

by John Sickels on Nov 16, 2006 10:50 AM EST in News Comment 58 comments

2007 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects

Matt Garza, RHP, Grade A (hasn't exceeded 50 innings yet)
Kevin Slowey, RHP, Grade B+ (cross between Brad Radke and Jon Lieber)
Chris Parmalee, OF, B+ (impressive power production)
Anthony Swarzak, RHP, B+ (sometimes overlooked but he shouldn't be)
Glen Perkins, LHP, B
Pat Neshek, RHP, B- (under the 50 inning limit)
Alexander Smit, LHP, B- (made major progress this year)
Eduardo Morlan, RHP, B- (overlooked by many but has a live arm and good numbers)
Alexi Casilla, 2B, B- (future Luis Castillo)
Paul Kelly, SS, B-
Jeff Manship, RHP, B- (a major sleeper from the '06 draft, this is a very aggressive grade but I want people to notice him)
Kyle Waldrop, RHP, B- (very projectable)
Erik Lis, 1B, C+ (strong bat but can he repeat at higher levels?)
Whit Robbins, 1B, C+
Brian Duensing, LHP, C+
Oswaldo Sosa, RHP, C+
Zach Ward, RHP, C+
Joe Benson, OF, C+ (impressive tools but will need some time)
Jose Mijares, LHP, C+ (throws very hard but weight and control are issues)
Garrett Olson, 3B, C+

Others: Alex Burnett, RHP; Doug Deeds, OF; Julio DePaula, RHP; J.D. Durbin, RHP; Brian Kirwan, RHP' Matt Moses, 3B; Ryan Mullins, LHP; Trent Oeltjen, OF; Brock Peterson, 1B; Yohan Pino, RHP; Tyler Robertson, LHP; Alex Romero, OF; Jay Sawatski, LHP; Denard Span, OF; Andrew Thompson, INF.

The Twins in One Sentence: A very solid farm system with a good foundation for the future, although they could use additional depth in position players and impact hitters.

Note: ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+ range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

Of course, the best thing you can do is buy my book.

UPDATE: After listening to people's suggestions and complaints, I've decided that I need to get Dave Winfree, Jay Rainville, and Dan Valencia in the book. The problem is that this blows past the player limit for this organization, and I really don't want to cut people. I might dump Sawatski and Peterson, although I consider both to be sleepers and would rather not do so.

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Garza

Holy crap, I didn't expect Garza to get an A.

I thought with Verlander and Liriano getting A's last year, the best pitching prospects in '06 would top out at A-. Even ignoring how they performed in the bigs this year, would you really say Garza's the same calibre of "prospect" as those guys were?

by Jurgen on Nov 16, 2006 11:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Garza and his status

doesn't a player lose rookie status when they reach the 50 inning threshold. Is there an official written ruling somewhere online where this rule is spelled out in black and white?

by yoshimi on Nov 16, 2006 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

my psychic abilities

I predict that we will have to read the Garza eligibility question 150 times between now and February. I feel like I've already seen it 20 times in the last 3 weeks.

by I Love Oakland As on Nov 16, 2006 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Garza

yeah, the Rookie status questions are already a bit old. But last week, the question was asked by John if Garza should be included in the book, and 'we' voted yes, so he will be there.

Is he an A prospect, I really think so. Not to the degree of the others, but he does have three PLUS pitches, just needs to control them a little better.

Here is a Q&A with Matt Garza from May, when he was still in Ft. Myers (http://www.sethspeaks.net/050506.htm).

by SethSpeaks on Nov 16, 2006 11:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You can't get a higher grade than an A

It's just like school. If the smartest kid in the class gets a 100 on everything and the next tier is hanging around the 93-94% range, they all still get A's. The smartest kid is still the best student but using the grading scale, they still all get As. I doubt John thinks Garza is as good of a prospect as a pre-injury Liriano but that doesn't mean Garza's not an A. If you used your logic, there would only be 1 or 2 As given out ever year.

by joerote on Nov 16, 2006 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A+?

Well, maybe we need a grade for those top 1 or 2. Off the top of my head, I think King Felix (and Mark Prior and Joe Mauer) would be the kind of prospect who'd get an A+. Isn't there a glitch in the system if it doesn't distinguish between the Garzas and the Liriano's?

But I did do my undergrad at a school where you could get a 4.3 GPA, so maybe I'm just biased.

by Jurgen on Nov 17, 2006 9:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

I feel the same way...

I still don't believe Garza would be rated the top pitching prospect if he were eligible. Hughes and Bailey had the same success as Garza in AA at age 20 and have similar, if not better, stuff.

I don't see him as an ace, so I can't see him getting an A grade... maybe John does, but A- seems right to me.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Nov 16, 2006 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ludovicus Van Mil

Any thoughts on the big Dutchman are appreciated.

Is he too tall?

What is his ceiling? Is it achievable?

by cooper7d7 on Nov 16, 2006 11:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

7'0"

and not much really he's interesting but that's about it Smit is the Dutch Native you should keep your eye out for.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Nov 16, 2006 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Van Mil

Loek Van Mil is just so raw. It sounds like he is a good athlete and very coordinated for a 7 footer. They always take a little longer to develop, to gain the coordination to find a consistent release point.

However, I don't think he throws excessively hard, but he does have a good downward trajectory on his pitches.

Personally I was thrilled that John ranked Alexander Smit so high. I ranked him 7th or 8th because he is still young and absolutely dominated Low A once he gained some control.

Q&A with Smit (http://www.sethspeaks.net/101006.htm).

Van Mil is older than Smit and he pitched in the Gulf Coast League, so he has a long ways to go.

by SethSpeaks on Nov 16, 2006 11:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Span & Moses

They sure crashed and burned last season. The high minors is devoid of any bats. They'll have to ride the current group of hitters until 2008 or 2009.

by DavidFoss on Nov 16, 2006 11:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Plouffe + Winfree

What are your thoughts on these two? I think they will both be in AA next year (Ryan has hinted at this) and both will be pretty young for the league.

Winfree was set back because of the leave of absence, but has put up solid numbers in hi A and now the AFL. I think he might be the best hitting prospect after Parmalee.

I don't know what to think of Plouffe, as he has put up terrible first halves and better second ones each of the past two years. The reports are that he has a good glove and Terry Ryan say that he is the type of player that will hit better as he advances up the system. Still very much on the fast track, not sure he is that far behind Kelly, if at all.

Minnesota Twins - 2006 World Series Champions

by drjim on Nov 16, 2006 11:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Winfree

is the guy besides Parmelee and Benson that I really get excited about when you look at his ceiling it looks like he should have a lot of power but needs to work on Plate disipline.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Nov 16, 2006 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Winfree

here is a Q&A with David Winfree from April, before he left the team for personal reasons.
(http://www.sethspeaks.net/042806.htm)

I personally rank Winfree in the Top 10 Twins prospects, ahead of Moses for sure.

by SethSpeaks on Nov 16, 2006 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Waldrop...

he's projectable but does anyone expect him to gain anything on his fastball?

Was he throwing harder than 86-91 this year?

by SenorGato88 on Nov 16, 2006 11:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

waldrop

I was wondering if B- was too high. what do you guys think?

by John Sickels on Nov 16, 2006 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Waldrop

I would not rate him this high. I'd rate him a C+ until he adds a foot to his fastball. He'd still make my top 20 though.

I also would not rate Lis ahead of either Robbins or Valencia. Lis projects as a DH. He has the worst glove in the system. I'd rate Valencia ahead of Olson as well. The fact that the Twins got both Manship and Valencia in the teens in the '06 draft and signed them both is a major coup.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Nov 16, 2006 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

valencia

I am not a big valencia fan at all. I also don't think winfree will hit.

by John Sickels on Nov 16, 2006 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

winfree

Let me clarify: I am suspicious about Winfree's bat at higher levels. His strike zone judgment, from both the numbers and personal observation, is horrible.

He does have youth on his side.

by John Sickels on Nov 16, 2006 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was

wondering why he wasn't inculded not even in the other Categories.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Nov 16, 2006 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

winfree

I should have put him on the list and I will put him in the book. But I think a lot of people overrate him.

by John Sickels on Nov 16, 2006 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What don't you like about Valencia?

He had a very good year at Miami in his Junior season and followed it up by being the best guy on the E-Town Twins (which, i know is low for his age). Is there something in a scouting report that says the numbers don't project at higher levels?

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Nov 16, 2006 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

old

Well, I thought he was too old for the level to get excited about his numbers. But I will think about it.

by John Sickels on Nov 16, 2006 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lis is older

And projects as a DH. When Woodard struggled and was benched in Fort Myers, the Twins did not promote Lis. He stayed in Beloit all year despite being the oldest player in the league. At least Robbins had an excuse: he's a year and class younger than Lis.

Valencia could very well be the starting 3B in Fort Myers next year, with Robbins at 1B and Lis at DH. That is, assuming Olson is the 3B at Beloit. Considering defense, I would put Valencia ahead of both Robbins and Lis.

And if you want to talk about age, how about Moses and Winfree, who are younger and at least one leavel above Lis in the system. The Twins sent Winfree and Moses to the AFL. Lis didn't even qualify to go.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Nov 17, 2006 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He's so...

hittable. I don't see why if everything besides his fastball (including command) is above average.

What kind of stuff does he have since he was drafted?

by SenorGato88 on Nov 16, 2006 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Manship

Nice to see the "other Jeff" from ND get some attention.

"Dying is no big deal. The least of us will manage that. Living is the trick." - Red Smith

by finman on Nov 16, 2006 12:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Zach Ward

Why so low? Seems like he has very good stuff and put up very good results in his first year.

Also, I have one small request. Bump up the timetable for the Giants' review. BA and BP have them near last.

by irwin on Nov 16, 2006 12:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Scott Baker?

If he were still eligible; where would he rank?

by klmstrat on Nov 16, 2006 12:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Neshek

does his B- rating indicate that his 2006 was a fluke?

his track record indicates that he is capable of similar production to 2006, but also to more pedestrian results.

but if the expectation is that he can reproduce anything similar to 2006 over time, his numbers imply a career as an excellent to dominant set-up man/closer. i would think that would justify something higher than a B- (and I know John is a tough grader.)

if his 2006 was thought to be a fluke, why? i can only assume the thinking is that teams would hit him after they get a good look at his unorthodox delivery. however, the only team that saw him more than once and was not dominated was the Rays. he absolutely destroyed KC, Cleveland and Detroit, who saw him 5 times each.

and even on a batter-by-batter basis, the players Neshek faced most often generally did worse than players he faced only once.

based on what i saw of Neshek, his success is not due just to an unorthodox approach, but to nasty stuff accentuated by his funky delivery. and based on his past stats, any lack of success (which was limited, and who's to call a sub 1.50 WHIP failure) is due to a failure to harness his stuff (increased BB/9 rates) rather than hitters figuring him out and teeing off.

by zimm on Nov 16, 2006 2:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Neshek

He has put up good strikeout numbers wherever he has been. Of course the concern is that hitters will catch up to the different delivery. However, he dominates righties and will likely work on another pitch to help him get out lefties.

I have done several Q&As with Neshek, but here is one from late June, a week or so before he got called up (http://www.sethspeaks.net/062306.htm).

by SethSpeaks on Nov 16, 2006 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Durbin

Wasn't he doing fairly well before getting hurt? Was the injury serious? Has he fallen so far he doesn't rate a C+, at least?

by drwmsu1 on Nov 16, 2006 3:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not serious

He had a slight nerve problem in his bicep, which necessitated rest. He should be back for spring training. He'll be out of options, so it's make or break. But he could also be trade bait. He still thows 95+, but has added a sinker that he uses to get ahead strike one. I expect he'll either be in the Twins' bullpen next year or someone elses.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Nov 16, 2006 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Doug Deeds

Can anyone give me a little information on this guy?

He was stuck at AA even though he was 23 and mashed, 304/382/479. This year, at 24, he was sent back there and had a similar season, 282/383/470. The Twins have been extremely slow promoting him despite good numbers every step of the way.

What gives?

by Guyute on Nov 16, 2006 4:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Deeds

I agree. I don't understand why he went back to New Britain. The Twins signed several minor league veterans for AA. Looking back as far as his college numbers, he was as good a hitter as Nick Swisher yet Swisher was a 1st round pick and Deeds went in the 6th or 7th or so. He should move up to Rochester this year. He can play OF and 1B. I don't think his ceiling is real high, but he could be a quality role player.

For more, here is a Q&A I did with him about six weeks ago. (http://www.sethspeaks.net/100306.htm)

by SethSpeaks on Nov 16, 2006 11:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

johan pino

Pino is a top 20 twins prospect easily.

only throws 90-91 but has pinpoint command. Could very easily be another radke/slowey type.

Strikeout numbers are very respectable also.

He's a gamer.

by hotshotschamp on Nov 16, 2006 6:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pino

It is amazing what he has one in his pro career, and particularly in 2006!

I was told by someone close to the Beloit team this year that Pino tops out at about 86-88, but has pinpoint control.

Here is an article I wrote on him a couple of months ago, if you're interested in learning more.

by SethSpeaks on Nov 16, 2006 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pino Link

Sorry, forgot the link:

http://twins.scout.com/2/563806.html

by SethSpeaks on Nov 16, 2006 11:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Alexi...

ends up at ss or 2b?

by slurve on Nov 16, 2006 7:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

2B

I have been told that he has the arm for SS, but that 2B is likely to be his position.

by SethSpeaks on Nov 16, 2006 11:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Duensing

So you don't think what he did this year has raised his stock any? Or is it because he just isn't that projectable with a below average fastball?

by playingwithfire on Nov 16, 2006 8:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Duensing

See, I have ranked Duensing fairly high just because of how quickly he was promoted two levels. He didn't pitch great in AA, but he stayed healthy in his first pro season as a starter. Remember that he had Tommy John surgery a couple of years ago, and this is the first year that he pitched a lot of innings.

here is a Q&A that I did with him in May (http://www.sethspeaks.net/050906.htm)

by SethSpeaks on Nov 16, 2006 11:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

swarzak

how are we feeling about swarzak these days? BA was running him down a little bit in the FSL rankings, not putting him in the top 20 and talking about how his stuff wasn't the same this year. but he seemed to come on in the second half, statistically at least.

by wily mo on Nov 16, 2006 8:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Olson/Moses

I have a hard time seeing rating Olson above Moses, considering that they're almost exactly the same age and Moses was in AA, Olson in Rookie ball. Plus, Moses is really only a year removed from a good half year at Fort Myers.

by battlekow on Nov 16, 2006 11:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Winfree

I'm still not sure how you can leave him off of this list completely. He's had 2 good seasons now, and the strike zone judgement can certainly improve, specially given it being in A ball.

I'm also curious about your thoughts on Morlan. I saw him pitch in Fort Wayne this year. He was unhittable, and was consistently hitting 96-98 with his fastball. That's awesome for a lefty. Anyone here think he could be the next one to rise through the system like Liriano and Garza did?

by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 17, 2006 7:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

you saw morlan pitch

and think he's a lefty???

I do think he's gonna be a stud for the twins, possibly in the pen or as a SP.

but lefty he isn't.

by hotshotschamp on Nov 17, 2006 8:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he meant Mijares

Morlan never pitched above the Midwest league in 06. Both throw 96-98 with a good breaking ball and a big body. But that's where the comparison ends, unless you want to go into the fact that they're both Latin.

Mijares is my pick for sleeper of the year. He could be in the Twins bullpen by end of year, especially if Reyes falters.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Nov 17, 2006 10:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope, it was Morlan

But I guess I was not paying too close attention, as I could have sworn he was a lefty..

He played for Beloit and I watched him shut down Fort Wayne

by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 22, 2006 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure Casilla will pan out

and with his 380 OBP and his velocity, i'm drooling.

He'll be a great fantasy asset.

by jahs34 on Nov 17, 2006 10:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rainville

Wow... is Rainville's injury so devastating that he goes from the Twins' #7 and a B to off the charts totally?

by JRTwins on Nov 17, 2006 1:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He was pitching in Instructional league

No residual effects, according to sources. So, it is an omission. I would rank Rainville a B-, but definitely ahead of Waldrop. He throws harder, has better movement, and better control.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Nov 17, 2006 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

For Better or Worse

I think there are a few players ranked too high:

Lis is your typical old for the league guy with limited defensive skills. Its extremely doubtful his bat is going to carry him to the big leagues as a first baseman. He might do it, but his numbers in low A ball certainly don't project that way.

Smit is a guy who has simply not improved all that much as his career has moved along. He still has the tools, but I don't see the evidence that he is going to be able to harness them.

I'm not sure either one belongs in the top 20.

Slowey belongs on the list, but not in the number two spot. He is never going to be a major league ace. He may not even be able to translate his minor league success into a major league career as a starter. A lot of people may end up disappointed by him turning into a decent middle reliever and swingman. But I think that is his likely ceiling.

On the other side:

I think you are severely underestimating Span and Moses. You seem to be overcompensating for their status as number one draft choices. Both of them are likely going to be in the big leagues next September if not earlier.

Winfree also probably belongs in the top 20 based on tools and skill, but you can make the argument that his makeup is highly suspect at this point.

It will be interesting to compare this list to BBA's that comes out in a couple weeks.

by TT on Nov 17, 2006 9:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

BBA

While it is always fun for the rest of us to compare John's list with Baseball America's and others, I expect John will be much less interested in doing that comparison, as he will trust his scouting and info analysis above BA's staff (I have learned to trust John's more as well, though nobody is totally accurate). His primary interest will be comparing his list with the Twins' major league roster in five years.

by JRTwins on Nov 17, 2006 10:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Span = Overrated.

Only one Tool Speed and it only makes up for his poor reads in the OF and he can't use it on the bases. No plate disipline whick wouldn't be that bad expcept he doesn't hit for a high AVG. O and his arm is sub par.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Nov 21, 2006 12:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs