Top 20 Braves Prospects for 2007

by John Sickels on Nov 15, 2006 5:26 PM EST in News

2007 Top 20 Atlanta Braves Prospects

Eric Campbell, 3B, Grade B+ (I really like his bat)
Elvis Andrus, SS, Grade B+ (I really like his birthday, lots of development potential)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Grade B (I am more worried about reports of excess weight gain and defensive problems in the Arizona Fall League more than his erratic regular season)
Matt Harrison, LHP, B
Brandon Jones, OF, B
Joey Devine, RHP, B (he has been handled poorly but still has a good arm)
Yunel Escobar, SS, B (you can read the comment I wrote below)
Jamie Richmond, RHP, B (an aggressive grade but the numbers are great and my intuition likes him)
Scott Thorman, OF-1B, B- (below 150 at-bats so he goes in the book)
Chase Fontaine, SS, B-
Anthony Lerew, RHP, C+
Jo-Jo Reyes, LHP, C+ (nice rebound season but slumped down the stretch)
Neftali Feliz, RHP, C+ (terrific arm but a long way from the majors)
Kevin Gunderson, LHP, C+
Kala Kaaihue, 1B, C+ (sleeper bat, watch this guy)
Kris Medlen, RHP, C+
Jeff Locke, LHP, C+
Cory Rasmus, RHP, C+
Steve Evarts, LHP, C+
Tommy Hanson, RHP,C+

Others: Gregor Blanco, OF, Francisley Bueno, LHP; Dustin Evasn, RHP, Tim Gustafson, RHP; J.C. Holt, 2B; Lee Hyde, LHP; Cody Johnson, 1B; Beau Jones, LHP; Jeff Lyman, RHP; Brayan Pena, C; Tony Pena, SS; Van Pope, 3B (may end up in top 20); Chad Rodgers, LHP; Jamie Romak, OF: Zach Screiber, RHP; Will Startup, LHP; Jake Stevens, LHP.

The Braves in one sentence: Despite their reputation, they are rather thin in high-level pitching prospects, but there are some interesting bats and a large group of pitchers at the lower levels who might develop.

Note: ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+ range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

Of course, the best thing you can do is buy my book.

0 recs | Comment 44 comments

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Comments

Couple of questions

Nice list John - I think you have the top 20 about right, although not sure if everyone'll agree with the order.

Just a couple of things I'm curious about:

1 - I'm surprised to see Campbell at #1 given his low walk rate. Can you expand a little?

2 - I haven't heard the rumours about Salty and his weight - where did you hear that?

Thanks and keep up the good work.

by AJ25 on Nov 15, 2006 5:25 PM EST 0 recs

stuff

the low walk rate doesn't worry me too much because his strikeout rate is reasonable.

I heard about Salty's weight in the AZL. Talk among scouts that his reactions were very slow.

by John Sickels on Nov 15, 2006 5:28 PM EST 0 recs

Another comment

Thanks John.

I'm kind of surprised to see such a separation between Richmond and the other short season pitchers, as reports suggest that Richmond's raw stuff is not as good as people like Hanson, Rasmus, Locke, Evarts, etc...

by AJ25 on Nov 15, 2006 5:38 PM EST up 0 recs

salty

Salty

Fear not John. The reports you got on his weight issues and problems with his defense are in fact "bogus".

All in all, not a bad list. Thanks.

by 525DP on Nov 16, 2006 2:43 PM EST up 0 recs

Campbell

John, what do you think about the Braves giving Campbell time at 2B?

by sasquatch83 on Nov 15, 2006 5:33 PM EST 0 recs

Questions....

First off, you gave Salty a C....i'm guessing you meant to give him a B?

If Matt Wright were still with the Braves, would he have made this top 20 list?

by eazyb81 on Nov 15, 2006 5:36 PM EST 0 recs

C is for Catcher

His Grade is B

by sasquatch83 on Nov 15, 2006 5:39 PM EST up 0 recs

Ouch

Duh, don't know why i missed that.

by eazyb81 on Nov 15, 2006 7:08 PM EST up 0 recs

wright

maybe. not sure.

by John Sickels on Nov 15, 2006 5:54 PM EST up 0 recs

Matt Wright...

was signed by KC as a 6-year FA

by SJsftb27 on Nov 15, 2006 7:13 PM EST up 0 recs

When??

I need some kind of source here...I keep hearing this, but it's NOT in the official transactions.

Is there a rule keeping this from being official or something?

by themurph on Nov 15, 2006 10:32 PM EST up 0 recs

Here you go

Source

by battlekow on Nov 16, 2006 12:43 AM EST up 0 recs

Elvis and Soup over Salty?

interesting list, i like 4-15 a lot, though Jo Jo Reyes should prolly be a spot or two higher- Harrison is a borderline B/B+ guy in my opinion, i think he could be argued over campbell and maybe over elvis depending on how you factor performance vs projection

however, i just dont don't get salty at third and a straight B. I also haven't heard much of anything on salty and weight issues, but regardless unless you truely feel this past season was significantly more than a pause due to a combination of injury and emphasis on other parts of the game (and his return from injury stats + the afl numbers certainly support the abberration interpretation) he has no business being behind campbell and andrus. Elvis certainly has great potential, but has done nothing in the neighborhood to allow someone to do anything more than wildly hypostulate he can approach the sort of ceiling Salty displayed while at High A Myrtle Beach. Similarly, Campbell hasn't shown anywhere near the sort of patience of Salty, while playing a much less premium offensive position in lower leagues at an older age(though if he permanently moves to second that will change). I think elevating Campbell and Andrus over Saltalamacchia and, to a lesser degree Harrison, is somewhat of a reach to guess at who will emerge as the next impact player in a Braves system with plenty of long term depth, but only a few, now slightly overlooked, proven performers.

by abravesfan on Nov 15, 2006 5:41 PM EST 0 recs

btw

posted before i could add this-

but regardless, a good list and sure to provoke some debate. thanks as always for making this public john! nothing like prospect debates to make the winter go by that much quicker

by abravesfan on Nov 15, 2006 5:44 PM EST up 0 recs

question

What is the difference between Jamie Richmond and Tommy Hanson?

by MPK on Nov 15, 2006 5:46 PM EST 0 recs

Reyes

Here are Reyes's last five starts:

Aug 13: 5 IP 0 ER
Aug 18: 7 IP 0 ER
Aug 24: 5 IP 3 ER
Aug 29: 8 IP 0 ER
Sep 03: 5 IP 5 ER

30 IP 8 ER

2.40 ERA

by cajunrevenge on Nov 15, 2006 5:54 PM EST 0 recs

strangw

Strange...the numbers I was looking at were much different. Need to check that.

by John Sickels on Nov 15, 2006 5:55 PM EST up 0 recs

numbers

His ERA in his last ten starts was 5.21. He was crushed in the two starts before the five you posted, giving up 13 earned runs in five innings.

by John Sickels on Nov 15, 2006 5:58 PM EST up 0 recs

JoJo

He had weight and injury issues before.
Overall his numbers look pretty good. maybe tailed off in the end because of tiredness?
Unlike most Braves pitching prospects, he doesn't have significant home/road splits.

by Godot on Nov 16, 2006 9:24 AM EST up 0 recs

Brandon Jones

I picked up Jones in my sim league last year (based on John and BA's high rankings) but, as of yet, his stats have yet to live up to the tools. Despite another mediocre year he's again in the Braves top 10. Jones was in BA's top 10 last year as well.

John, or anyone else, can you tell me what's to like about Jones? Is it just the tools w/ promise of production to come? I'm a little weak in OF prospects, should I hang onto him?

by Guyute on Nov 15, 2006 5:55 PM EST 0 recs

jones

His numbers are better than they look on the surface and he's toolsy. It depends on what your league is like, the rules and roster depth, etc., whether you should dump him or not.

by John Sickels on Nov 15, 2006 6:00 PM EST up 0 recs

Lerew

He really climbed in '05, and tumbled in '06. Is he the quintessential jury is still out guy, or what?

by drwmsu1 on Nov 15, 2006 6:35 PM EST 0 recs

Matt Harrison

seems like he could turn out to be very good. The B-rating seems fair for now, but I get the feeling that he could become a very nice #2-3 starter down the road. What do other people think his ceiling is?

If only I had held on to him in my fantasy league. I had to choose between trading him and Shane Lindsay, and the majority of this site went with Lindsay. Oh well.

All in all, the list is very nice. Great work, John.

by drob320 on Nov 15, 2006 7:00 PM EST 0 recs

Some

say that Harrison's fastball was touching 95-96 at the end of the year. He already has a big "healthy" body type that will allow him to eat innings. I would love for this kid to be a stud. I like him alot esp since guys like davies and Lerew don't seem to be the studs they were a year ago. (I'm still high on Lerew depsite what John and others think, davies scares me, he pitches too high in the zone for his own good).

by yondaime4 on Nov 16, 2006 1:48 AM EST up 0 recs

Van Pope

His being outside of the top 20 seems to run counter both to the Braves' view of him (Cambell moving over to 2nd w/ Pope as near-official 3b heir apparent), and the Baseball America/scout view (#10 third base prospect in baseball, excellent defense, good power, etc).

Wondering why you're more pessimistic?

by gogotabata on Nov 15, 2006 7:37 PM EST 0 recs

Van Pope

i'm guessing he's a C+? I would like to see him in the 15-20 range.

A Marlins fan in exile. Keep the Fish in Miami!

by jdelavalle on Nov 15, 2006 7:38 PM EST 0 recs

pop

I'm not sold on his bat. But I will probably stick him in the top 20 now that I think about it more. C+.

by John Sickels on Nov 15, 2006 7:45 PM EST 0 recs

Startup

A lot of fans that I've talked to seem high on Will Startup. He gave up quite a few hits (45 in 40.2 IP) when he got to AAA, but he was just 21 last year. Are the younger, less proven guys like Evarts and Hanson up there because they could still develope into starters while Startup has already been designated to the pen?

by mraver on Nov 15, 2006 9:03 PM EST 0 recs

Startup

I saw Startup pitch a lot after his callup to AAA. He's got problems with command and consistency; it's very easy to see him being no more than a LOOGY in the majors.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Nov 15, 2006 9:39 PM EST up 0 recs

Rasmus....

one of my favorite arms from this years draft.

Hard fastball, nice hard curveball, smooth mechanics.

John or anyone, would he have went in the first if he was even an inch or two taller?

What would his grade be if that was so? Would that have affected it?

His performance sucked, but the guy is one of the better arms in the Braves system right now.

by SenorGato88 on Nov 15, 2006 10:18 PM EST 0 recs

Injury

was shut down with elbow tendinitis.
don't know how that affects pitchers, but given that, he has made the top 20 based just on reputation. So a fair ranking IMO

by Godot on Nov 16, 2006 9:25 AM EST up 0 recs

Looks like

The theme of the braves is slow and steady with no big stars jumping out. Lots of low level depth with a couple of bench type guys at the top. Maybe we can get a stud in next years talent rich draft.

by yondaime4 on Nov 16, 2006 1:50 AM EST 0 recs

Tony Pena

In the "other players" category... you've listed him as a ctacher... I thought Jr was a utility infielder?

If it wasn't for disappointments, I wouldn't have any appointments.

by kings33 on Nov 16, 2006 6:59 AM EST 0 recs

SS

He is a SS. That was a brain fart. Fixed.

by John Sickels on Nov 16, 2006 10:12 AM EST up 0 recs

John, you may want to

Make one more fix.

I believe you intended to put Neftali Feliz on your list. I know there is a tendency to follow every name that begins with a "Nef" with the surname "Perez" in honor of the immortal Neifi, but the Braves' pitching prospect is a Feliz.

by parish on Nov 16, 2006 11:13 AM EST 0 recs

A couple of other thoughts/questions

First of all, thank you for sharing your comments and evaluations.

Secondly, I wonder what you think of some of these notable absences.

Martin Prado
Jairo Cuevas
Manny Acosta
Carl Loadenthal
Clint Sammons
James Parr
Brady Endl

Thanks, again.

by parish on Nov 16, 2006 12:25 PM EST up 0 recs

Omissions?

Of that group, the only guy I'd consider for top-20 status is Sammons (and he'd be near the bottom). Prado and Cuevas are utility infielders at best, with the organizational soldier role being more likely. Acosta walks way too many guys to be useful, plus he's going to be 26. Loadenthal is 25 and hasn't touched AA yet (except briefly last year), can't play CF and doesn't have the power for a corner spot. Parr's a finesse righty with limited upsode, who didn't pitch well at Myrtle Beach (which is a place where it's relatively easy to pitch well). Endl missed the entire season except for one early start, and it's hard to guess where he might be coming back.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Nov 17, 2006 10:29 AM EST up 0 recs

Fair enough, except

Cuevas is actually a pitcher. He had an exceptional year on a very good Danville squad in 2005. His 2006 was much less impressive at Rome, but the peripherals were respectable.

I guess Prado holding his own in 42 AB in the Bigs at age 22 might make me think that he has a shot.

by parish on Nov 17, 2006 12:05 PM EST up 0 recs

Gene theory

no respect for Felix's big brother?! :)

by Godot on Nov 17, 2006 12:13 PM EST up 0 recs

Cuevas

I was thinking Trejo when I wrote that. I shouldn't make comments before the coffee kicks in :)

I'm guessing that the reason Cuevas isn't on the list is that he's relatively old for his level and didn't pitch well at all at Rome. However, it fairness, it should be remembered that Cuevas is a converted 3B and doesn't have nearly the mileage on his arm that a typical 22-YO would have by now. He's still learning how to pitch.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Nov 17, 2006 12:59 PM EST up 0 recs