2007 Kansas City Royals PRE-SEASON Prospects

by John Sickels on Nov 14, 2006 2:43 PM EST in News Comment 50 comments

2007 Kansas City Royals Top 20 Prospects

Alex Gordon, 3B, Grade A (the best prospect in baseball)
Billy Butler, OF, Grade A- (best case outcome: the new Edgar Martinez?)
Luke Hochevar, RHP, Grade A- (shoulder problems?)
Chris Lubanski, OF, Grade B
Jeff Bianchi, SS, Grade B
Tyler Lumsden, LHP, Grade B (this grade may be too high, please comment)
Justin Huber, 1B-OF, Grade B-
Brent Fisher, LHP, Grade B- (a real sleeper prospect)
Mitch Maier, OF, Grade C+ (maybe B-?)
Billy Buckner, RHP, Grade C+
Ryan Braun, RHP, C+
Mario Lisson, 3B, C+ (a sleeper)
Danny Christensen, LHP, C+
Chris Nicoll, RHP, C+
Carlos Rosa, RHP, C+
Jason Taylor, 3B, C+
Erik Cordier, RHP, C+
Jarod Plummer, RHP, C+ (a sleeper but C+ might be too high)
Donny Murphy, 2B, C (worried about health and stagnating bat, but maybe C+?)
Angel Sanchez, SS, C

Others: Dan Cortes, RHP; Luis Cota, RHP; Gabe DeHoyos, RHP, Joe Dickerson, OF; Adam Donachie, C; Jason Godin, RHP; Blake Johnson, RHP; Josh Johnson, 2B; Chris McConnell, SS; Harold Mozingo, RHP; Julio Pimentel, RHP; Derrick Robinson, OF; Mike Stodolka, 1B; Nick Van Stratten, OF; Blake Wood, RHP.

The Royals In One Sentence: A rebuilding organization with a strong offensive core for the future but not much pitching depth.

Note: ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+ range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team. This is your chance to have some input into the process. Note that newsletter subscribers have already been sent some of the preliminary player comments.

Of course, the best thing you can do is buy my book.

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Comments

Justin Huber

Have the Royals just completely screwed up his career by inexplicably not playing him last year? I was really high on him a year ago, but he regressed repeating AAA.

I think the Lumsden grade is slightly high. He's supposed to have great stuff but his peripherals are mediocre at best.

by Ian Miller on Nov 14, 2006 2:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Comments

First, as I stated in the current community prospect thread, I think it's a bit premature to say Hochevar's shoulder "twinge" he experience is a sign of shoulder problems. With almost a year off from pitching in meaningful games, it's almost to be expected that he might be sore after a long layoff.

In regards to Butler, I hope you're not implying that Butler is a future DH with the Edgar comp. The Royals have heaped the praises on Butler's improvement in defense over the past year, and the talk of him being a full-time DH have come to a halt.

Honestly, i'm a bit surprised you left off a handful of young, high-ceiling prospects in favor of middle of the road prospects w/o much projectability. Guys such as Derrick Robinson, Blake Johnson, Daniel Cortes, Joe Dickerson, and Luis Cota don't have much in terms of minor league production so far, but they all certainly have the upside to be considered prospects, especially in the Royals farm system.

by eazyb81 on Nov 14, 2006 2:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

prospects

And they are prospects. They are in the book.

by John Sickels on Nov 14, 2006 3:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lumsden

I think he was pushed pretty aggressively for a guy who had 40 innings of pro experience and hadn't pitched in a year. If he had, say, pitched half the year in A ball and then been promoted to AA midway through, how do you think his year would have looked? My guess is that we'd probably be thinking pretty highly of him right now.

My biggest concerns with him (besides the injury flag) are the lack of a third pitch and the fear that he'll be pushed before he's ready. I suppose everything put together might depress him to a B-, but then again I'm also impressed by the strides he made this year and could see him breaking out big next year. I'll say B.

by mrkupe on Nov 14, 2006 3:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

third pitch

I don't know if I would say Lumsden lacks a third pitch. His change is still developing, but he does use it effectively and mixes it in well with his solid fastball/curve combo.

by eazyb81 on Nov 14, 2006 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not gonna "by" your book,

but I will buy it.

Sorry, I couldn't help myself.
:)

by Justin & Joe on Nov 14, 2006 3:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ryan Braun

C+ if you play him at pitcher.
B+ at third base.

I'm really interested in what kind of player Jeff Bianchi is. I have a picture of Buddy Biancalana in my head, and need help getting rid of that.

by doubledribble on Nov 14, 2006 4:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

bianchi

Bianchi has been unstoppable in rookie ball but can't stay healthy. Maybe a Jay Bell type?

by John Sickels on Nov 14, 2006 4:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

sickels

grienke is still young and played all year in the minor what would you grade him now?

by krgrecw on Nov 14, 2006 4:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ryan Braun RHP

I personally think, that if given the chance to close, Braun runs with it and keeps it for a long time.

Ryan Braun - 26 RHP, was once thought as the closer of the future for the Royals but a knee injury stole most of his 2005 season away from him. In 2006, he gained what he lost and rebounded to have a great 2006 minor league campaign. He works consistently at 98 mph and has been known to hit 100. Braun isn't afraid to go after hitters with his late moving fastball, "terminator" (from Justin Huber) curveball, or his nasty slider. Despite his late season performance in the majors, I personally think that Braun, if inserted as the closer at the beginning of the year, will excel and be in any rookie of the year conversation for 2007. He reminds me a lot of Chris Ray.

All he really has to do it outshine journeyman Nelson and the inconsistent/young Burgos.

(PS: I've never seen Bruan pitch and got these details from online sources. But if they are right I think he's a B- or a B.)

by Havok1517 on Nov 14, 2006 4:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Royals top 10

John, great work--I'll be ordering the book (again).

3 prospects that start their grade with "A". That is a good sign.

If Butler sick in LF--is he an "A"?

I'm not real big on Lumsden--but a lot of other people seem to really like him.

I'm still quite high on Cordier and probably would put just outside the top 10. He's having TJ surgery, which is not good--but once he comes back in 08, he could move very quick.

by nwroyal on Nov 14, 2006 5:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

oops

should read "if Butler sTickS in Rf--is he an "A"?

by nwroyal on Nov 14, 2006 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cordier

I had high hopes for Cordier (still do), but I am starting to doubt if he will ever reach his potential. 07 will be the 2nd full year he will miss due to injury (granted, the first one was not a pitching injury) and that has to hinder his development.

Let's say he comes back in 08 and starts out at High A. It will most likely take a year after that for him to regain his command, and he will spend at least another year in the minors.

If Cordier didn't need TJ, he would certainly be a guy to watch out for. Now that he will miss another year, i'm starting to have doubts about him.

Just my 2 cents.

by eazyb81 on Nov 14, 2006 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

According to BA

Cordier is not going to have TJ surgery.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Nov 29, 2006 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Side Issue

Something I would like to see addressed in this space would be how everyone thinks the logjam for the Royals will work out.

We've heard Teahen moving to the OF rumors, assuming this to be true, they still have a ton of guys for a few positions

But how do people think the Huber/Sweeney/Shealy/ and Gordon/Teahen shake out??

by wildthang on Nov 14, 2006 7:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My Guess

Shealy - 1st base
Sweeney - DH (when healthy)
Huber - traded

Gordon - 3rd base
Teahen - left field (if not traded)

Also, IMO either Dejesus or Gathright will be traded.

by eazyb81 on Nov 14, 2006 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re: Side Issue

I would like to see them look like the Marlins from this year, by moving up their next generation.

Shealy - 1B/DH
Teahen - LF
Gordon - 3B
Huber - 1B/DH
Butler - RF/DH
Sweeney - trade away for a bag of baseballs.

I think it will look more like

Sweeney - 1B/DH
Shealy - 1B/DH
Teahen - LF
Gordon - 3B

Butler down at AAA.
Huber traded away for pitching.

by Lampposter on Nov 14, 2006 8:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i really hope

Moore explores the trade options for Shealy, who's older and may be near his peak value already, especially after a few more months of showcasing

www.royalsreview.com

by royalsreview on Nov 15, 2006 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

William "Don't call me Bill" Buckner

I think C+ is a tad low for him. He had a stretch at High Desert - which of course is a pitchers nightmare - where he couldn't be touched. He ended up at 3.94 there which is very solid for that league and park. He struggled a little upon his first taste of AA, but after August 1, he had a 2.91 ERA in 43.3 IP. Similarly, he had struggled the previous year at High A after being promoted, but was successful there this year.

I think hes a solid B- guy. Not going to be an ace, but hes been durable so far and been has able to pitch really well in tough parks once he gets used to the level he's at.

Also on Lumsden - I see a B- there rather than a B. He hasnt pitched bad, but his stats don't match his stuff which is always a concern.

by tupelodylan on Nov 14, 2006 9:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Matthew M. Kniginyzky

Another pitcher you should look at is Kniginyzky. The 6' 3" lefty went 9 -5 with a 3.51 ERA while starting 23 games at Burlington. In 130.2 IP, he struck out 100 while only walking 34 as batters hit .255 against him. He had a GO/AO of 1.09 though he did give up 16 gopher balls. He was selected in round 23 of the 2005 draft after playing college ball and he just turned 24. He did have a lat injury during the season but appears to have recovered. A good interview with him in July 2006 can be found at http://royals.scout.com/2/550131.html.

by Jim in Maine on Nov 14, 2006 10:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kniginyzky

I believe they found he had a torn labrum after the season, so I think that should knock him down a bit.

by eazyb81 on Nov 15, 2006 8:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking as a Royals fan...

Bianchi is way too high. Maybe he's got a lot of raw ability but I am not counting on him to ever be a particularly utile player for us-- this guy has got injury problems out the wazoo.

by prezuiwf on Nov 15, 2006 12:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Am I the only one who finds...

Hochevar a bit too high? I like to see him throw some more as a Pro before giving him an A- grade.

A Marlins fan in exile. Keep the Fish in Miami!

by jdelavalle on Nov 15, 2006 3:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hochevar

will probably be KC's #2 on BA's list, followed by Butler. . . unless his "twinge" knocks him below butler

by SoCalSoxFan on Nov 15, 2006 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd

put Butler ahead of him, as would many here, evidently. As for the best case scenario, I can see Butler having better power than Edgar Martinez. Don't forget that Martinez didn't become a regular until he was 27, and while he had great longevity, he didn't really do as well in the minors either. I think the best case scenario is a Manny-type player, maybe with a bit less athleticism.

by Brickhaus on Nov 15, 2006 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i think

a lot of people are undervaluing the fact that Luke was the first pick in the draft, and especially after sitting out the year. I think it speaks volumes that he was taken over the likes of Andrew Miller and other college pitchers even after sitting out a year.

by SoCalSoxFan on Nov 15, 2006 6:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hochevar

I also find him somewhat high and should be a B+ not an A- in my mind. Also, I think Hochevar was picked #1 because his signability issues pretty much ended at the start of his second draft, unlike Miller.

by Havok1517 on Nov 24, 2006 1:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Does john still write for Rotowire?

by novaoakland on Nov 15, 2006 6:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

yes

by John Sickels on Nov 15, 2006 10:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Beyond Hoch....

I have no idea what kind of arms these guys have...

I know a few years back they had a bunch of power relievers that didn't pan out. Is it the same way again? I mean Burgos and Cota don't seem to be starting, and that seems to be partially their fault and partially the Royals fault.

Also, has Blake Johnson's stuff dropped at all or something? He seemed to dissapear in the sea of Dodgers power arms but in the Royals system he also hasn't been talked about.

by SenorGato88 on Nov 15, 2006 7:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Blake Johnson

Johnson is the type of pitcher that the Royals can't seem to draft or develop themselves. I really like his potential. He throws strikes and has some long range prospects. In an organization like KC, he should be getting more attention but hasn't been yet. I could see him starting at Wilmington or even Wichita with a strong spring training. If he could produce at AA, the jump to KC isn't that far. GM's attitude with minor leaguers is to take it slow and promote a level at a time. That would be my prediction for Johnson's 2007. Start at Wilmington and finish at AA Wichita.

by daveyork on Nov 16, 2006 11:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lack of pitching

makes the JP Howell move even more inexplicable..

If you are Moore, what do you do about SS and P?
And even more interesting question is, if the Royals end up with Matt Wieters, what do they convert him to?

by Godot on Nov 15, 2006 7:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not really

Just because JP Howell was one of the KC's better pitching prospects at the time, doesn't mean he was actually a "good" pitching prospect. He doesn't project to being anything more than a bottom of the rotation guy, so why hold on to him?

by eazyb81 on Nov 15, 2006 8:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I still believe the Royals...

could have gotten, the much cheaper than Berroa, Barmes from the Rockies if they would have included Redman in the Affeldt-Shealy deal to Colorado at the deadline. Granted, Barmes isn't fantastic but at least he's young and cheap with some potential (He was on fire before getting hurt in 2005). Colorado was, at the time, still in the thick of things in the NL West. But instead, in a familar losing effort, the Royals decided to pay Redman (pending FA at the time) his full contract and again wind up last.

by Havok1517 on Nov 15, 2006 8:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Barmes

Why would the Royals even want Barmes? Granted, he would have been a bit of an upgrade of Berroa, but he's certainly not a potential star or even an average starting SS.

Berroa really isn't all that expensive, and we would have still needed someone to take the Berroa contract if we picked up Barmes. Are you suggesting that Colorado would have taken Berroa? If not, then I don't really see a point to the move.

by eazyb81 on Nov 15, 2006 9:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My point...

Well, the biggest part of the deal would have been getting out from under most of Redman's $4.5M contract. Maybe they could have exchanged Elarton instead. Berroa is due to make $8 million dollar in the next two years (07-08) and then a $5.5 club option for the next year (that hopefully won't be picked up by the Royals). Barmes is making $335,000, he's a better player than Berroa, and still could develop into something. They're about the same defensively. Berroa would likely fetch a trade I think and might benefit from a change of scenery. The cheap and servicable Barmes, who btw doesn't have a job in Colo with Tuly and Matsui, would fill in until KC contends or finds somebody new.
Berroa is better than a few SS. Toronto has no SS, Guzman in Washington, and maybe even Twins (will the real Bartlett please stand up) or the Red Sox.

by Havok1517 on Nov 15, 2006 9:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Felipe Lopez resents that comment

by aaronb on Nov 15, 2006 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

recently read something along these lines...

The Washington Times suggests that Washington may try to deal Jose Vidro this offseason.

That would allow the club to shift Felipe Lopez to second and play Cristian Guzman at shortstop. How much value Vidro would have is debatable. While he was healthier (relatively speaking) this year and rebounded in the BA department, Vidro's power has been in decline for four straight years, and he slugged just .395. If the club does try to peddle Vidro, expect the Nats to try to land a starter.
Source: Washington Times

by Havok1517 on Nov 15, 2006 10:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lumsden

I am really concerned that we gave a way MacDougal for a guy that can't throw enough strikes to be useful.

I hope the braintrust makes a decision about Huber this year. Either move him up or out.

You can't help but be struck by the weakness of the pitching and the total lack of prospects at the middle infield and catching slots who might be ML ready in a couple years. Let's pray Bianchi stays healthy and is the real deal.

I have to believe in something, so I believe I will have another cigar.

by kcboomer on Nov 15, 2006 10:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Brent Fisher

does anyone know anything about this kid John has listed as a "real sleeper prospect"? I take this to mean "super sleeper" ...... lol... anyone? anyone?

Dutin Pedroia .... a poor man's Ronny Cedeno - Theo Epstein

by the pinstripes on Nov 15, 2006 12:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Fisher

He has dominated the AZL the last two years, and didn't miss a beat on a late promotion to the Pioneer League. The Royals are being patient with him (some may say too patient), but he looks poised to have a breakout next season based on his numbers.

by eazyb81 on Nov 15, 2006 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Matt Wright

pitched for the Braves last year n was a mLFA. Is he in the Royals system now?

by Godot on Nov 15, 2006 2:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Matt Wright

was indeed signed by the Royals, according to BA.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Nov 15, 2006 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

top 20

surely he should crack the top 20 then?
He was stalled by injuries but had a pretty good year last year

by Godot on Nov 15, 2006 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wright's potential

I think Wright would have easily made KC's top 20 ranking. He had strong years 2002-2004 and was an all-star at AA Mississippi last season until mid season call up to Richmond. For a system that really lacks starting pitching prospects, Wright is a dark horse candidate who has some potential. A good signing by Dayton Moore, king of the farm system raiders.

by daveyork on Nov 16, 2006 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

One thing that should help the pitchers

is the move back to Wilmington from High Desert. Cota, in particular, seemed totally lost pitching at altitude last year.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Nov 15, 2006 3:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good Point

hard to develop any pitching prospects in a place like High Desert.

by eazyb81 on Nov 15, 2006 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

High Desert disaster

Moving back to Wilmington will be a huge advantage to KC minor league pitchers. After watching pitchers implode their for 2 years, it was a smart move to leave. KC needs to focus on getting pitchers to throw more strikes and be aggressive. In a place like High Desert, some of them are fighting for survival. Not a place to build confidence in young pitchers.

by daveyork on Nov 17, 2006 12:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gordon

Do you think Gordon will start off in KC this year or down in AAA?

by Lampposter on Nov 16, 2006 2:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Depends on spring training

Gordon will be given a chance to make Royals out of spring training. He will have to play his way on to the team though. With Teahen's strong year in 2006, KC is in no rush to play Gordon. A few months at Omaha might be in the picture. Personally, I hope he can break camp with the Royals and push Teahen to the OF. Teahen could also be used in a trade for pitching. My prediction is that Gordon will be too good to keep off the roster.

by daveyork on Nov 16, 2006 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs